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I've been seeing lots of posts and comments about how people are hoping the jets lose out for a better draft pick and what I want to know is who in this draft is worth tanking for. I will beat some of you to the punch here because trade down is not a valid answer for tanking this year, guess what if there are no star prospects that you think the jets should stay at that pick for than other teams probably feel that way as well.

 

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7 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

You’re aware that the higher draft pick occurs in rounds other than the first, yes? 

I think some people forget that.

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You’re aware that the higher draft pick occurs in rounds other than the first, yes? 
I am aware. I know Indy fans are definitely rooting for us to lose. Still there are no statistics that say that the team who drafts earliest ends up with the best players. I think the primary focus of the tank crowd is on the first round though.

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The highest the Jets can pick is #1, which would require a lot of help. The lowest they can pick is #5. I'd much rather have Darnold finish strong and topple the Pats out of a bye week than worry about six other games that determine whether the Jets are picking 1st, 2nd, or 3rd. 

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17 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

You’re aware that the higher draft pick occurs in rounds other than the first, yes? 

 

9 minutes ago, rldev said:

I think some people forget that.

People forget that because, actually, teams with the same record get shuffled round to round during the course of the draft. 

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9 minutes ago, bealeb319 said:

I am aware. I know Indy fans are definitely rooting for us to lose. Still there are no statistics that say that the team who drafts earliest ends up with the best players. I think the primary focus of the tank crowd is on the first round though.

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There is no exact correlation but there is some data that we can look at and draw some relatively good conclusions about higher draft picks being more successful

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2015/05/22/tracking-nfl-draft-efficiency-how-contingent-is-success-to-draft-position/amp/

 

 

Screenshot_20181226-082432.png

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Once it's apparent a season is lost, I'm usually very ok with losing more for draft position.

But not this year. I actually want a pick in Round 1 slightly lower so there's less temptation to draft defense. But most of all, I want to F THE PATRIOTS right out of the #2 seed.

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Trading down is always a valid option. 

You just may not get whatever that stupid chart says the pick is worth.  The value of the pick is what another team is willing to pay for it.   There is no law against taking less than the chart's assigned value.

If a QB, or CB, or whatever position needy team decides there is a player they must have... and there is a team they feel they need to jump in order to be certain they get him... then it is better to have the #3 overall than #4.  If they are willing to surrender more than the stupid chart... great!   If not, and there isn't a player on the board you love, take less and move down.

I hate that chart.  If I was GM... I would barely glance at it.

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There is no exact correlation but there is some data that we can look at and draw some relatively good conclusions about higher draft picks being more successful
 
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2015/05/22/tracking-nfl-draft-efficiency-how-contingent-is-success-to-draft-position/amp/
 
 
Screenshot_20181226-082432.thumb.png.866a9d19b6a24118f8ded857a858dd9b.png
I don't like to draw too many conclusions but how come teams that constantly draft late continue to win and other teams who constantly draft early continue to lose?

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1 minute ago, bealeb319 said:

I don't like to draw too many conclusions but how come teams that constantly draft late continue to win and other teams who constantly draft early continue to lose?

There are really only a handful of teams that are consistently picking late. We only see it as the Patriots because they have dominated the division, there aren't too many teams in that kinda category. Just look at the entire NFC East, it changes each year who wins that division. Only teams that have really consistently picked late are the Patriots, Steelers, Packers, and Saints - I think anyone could look at those teams and see that those are sure fire HoF QBs leading those teams.

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7 minutes ago, bla bla bla said:

There are really only a handful of teams that are consistently picking late. We only see it as the Patriots because they have dominated the division, there aren't too many teams in that kinda category. Just look at the entire NFC East, it changes each year who wins that division. Only teams that have really consistently picked late are the Patriots, Steelers, Packers, and Saints - I think anyone could look at those teams and see that those are sure fire HoF QBs leading those teams.

Even the Saints haven't picked outside the top 15 since 2014 when the traded up for Cooks (#20).  That is not exactly picking at the bottom of the draft.  This year they traded up to #14 for Davenport, but Peat (#13), Rankins (#12), and Lattimore (#11) were their picks.  In 2015 they also had Seattle's first (#31) for Graham. 

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27 minutes ago, bealeb319 said:

I don't like to draw too many conclusions but how come teams that constantly draft late continue to win and other teams who constantly draft early continue to lose?

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Better management.

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11 minutes ago, bealeb319 said:

I don't like to draw too many conclusions but how come teams that constantly draft late continue to win and other teams who constantly draft early continue to lose?

Sent from my LGUS991 using JetNation.com mobile app
 

Because maybe a third of the teams in the league have a good to great qb and the bottom feeder teams are generally very poorly managed and don’t know how to operate a draft. 

There are three main ways to get talent. Draft, FA/waivers, and trades. Option 3 doesn’t get done much except to mainly acquire draft assets. Free agency is dried up because no team has cap issues, everyone has money to extend players, and when all else fails, franchise tag. 

So you’re left with mainly the draft. So guess what, it’s incredibly important for a team in our position to get the most out of the draft. Hence every trade down, even in lower rounds, matters. Every pick that brings in higher end talent, matters. 

Compound that with our idiot gm investing these premium assets into safeties, undersized linebackers, and interior lineman and you have this cluster of a roster with solid players at those positions that leaves us with bottom third defenses and offenses because replacement level players would have given about the same level of production and impact. 

Compound that with our gm missing horribly on every pick after the first and you have basically half a roster to fill because no one is worth extending and most of your draft picks are out of the league.

then people say, “hey, top teams miss on draft picks too!!! So give our gm a break.” But in reality you are missing the core of the problem. Yes, the draft has uncertainty because there is way too much information to process, way too much asymmetric information that will never be discovered until after you draft a player, injury/drug/character/athletic risks, and non standardized competition. But the good teams have a system, use advanced analytics, and have a firm roster building plan to get it right more than wrong. 

The Steelers went from a great defensive team to a juggernaut offense. That’s not a coincidence, they saw what the league was becoming and take athletic wide receivers, offensive linemen, and backs almost every draft. How many of those have we taken in the last ten years versus them. The answer is going to tell you why we suck at offense every year and why they are high in the league with wins and offensive rankings. 

 

 

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31 minutes ago, bealeb319 said:

I don't like to draw too many conclusions but how come teams that constantly draft late continue to win and other teams who constantly draft early continue to lose?

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QB...it's pretty much the only thing that matters.

Which is why tanking is almost pointless for the Jets right now.  

Darnold getting wins under his belt is more valuable that 2 or 3 draft places.  This week especially, getting his first win against the Pats is a huge stepping stone for him - great for the offseason to know he's taken that step.

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There is no exact correlation but there is some data that we can look at and draw some relatively good conclusions about higher draft picks being more successful
 
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2015/05/22/tracking-nfl-draft-efficiency-how-contingent-is-success-to-draft-position/amp/
 
 
Screenshot_20181226-082432.thumb.png.866a9d19b6a24118f8ded857a858dd9b.png

How interesting. The UDFA’s make up more of the nfl rosters than all but the first and second rd. I didn’t know that. Macc’s track record is pretty good with that group.


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What will be, will be.

Root for the win vs. the hated Pats.

Enjoy the consolation prize of a higher draft pick.

Seems simple to me.

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Because maybe a third of the teams in the league have a good to great qb and the bottom feeder teams are generally very poorly managed and don’t know how to operate a draft. 
There are three main ways to get talent. Draft, FA/waivers, and trades. Option 3 doesn’t get done much except to mainly acquire draft assets. Free agency is dried up because no team has cap issues, everyone has money to extend players, and when all else fails, franchise tag. 
So you’re left with mainly the draft. So guess what, it’s incredibly important for a team in our position to get the most out of the draft. Hence every trade down, even in lower rounds, matters. Every pick that brings in higher end talent, matters. 
Compound that with our idiot gm investing these premium assets into safeties, undersized linebackers, and interior lineman and you have this cluster of a roster with solid players at those positions that leaves us with bottom third defenses and offenses because replacement level players would have given about the same level of production and impact. 
Compound that with our gm missing horribly on every pick after the first and you have basically half a roster to fill because no one is worth extending and most of your draft picks are out of the league.
then people say, “hey, top teams miss on draft picks too!!! So give our gm a break.” But in reality you are missing the core of the problem. Yes, the draft has uncertainty because there is way too much information to process, way too much asymmetric information that will never be discovered until after you draft a player, injury/drug/character/athletic risks, and non standardized competition. But the good teams have a system, use advanced analytics, and have a firm roster building plan to get it right more than wrong. 
The Steelers went from a great defensive team to a juggernaut offense. That’s not a coincidence, they saw what the league was becoming and take athletic wide receivers, offensive linemen, and backs almost every draft. How many of those have we taken in the last ten years versus them. The answer is going to tell you why we suck at offense every year and why they are high in the league with wins and offensive rankings. 
 
 

Good post.
While a lot of your points are accurate, the main reason the Steelers are the best org in the nfl is consistency. They don’t fire people every time the wind blows in the opposite direction.
The problem with teams like the jets and browns is we hire first timers in high level positions and rarely allow for growth. We cut and run only to start over again with another group of first timers.
Macc falls into this category.

I will be delighted when we retain his services and watch him continue to grow into his position with a coach he actually wants. Not someone who needs a batch of very specific types of players to succeed, then can’t develop them or put them in proper positions to succeed.

I’m no macc lover but I am a lover of consistency. That’s what allows systems to prosper. Not the cries that 2/3 of the threads on this board are polluted with.
Macc has been on a solid path of improvement and is quite obviously getting better.
Consistency consistency consistency.

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I just think it’s going to be funny when “tanking” and getting a Top 2 or 3 pick ultimately ends up leading to the Jets drafting another interior DL.

Because I would wager that the majority of scouts and GM’s out there have guys like Ed Oliver and Quinnen Williams rated above the 2nd tier edgerushers like Allen and Ferrell.

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5 minutes ago, GREENBEAN said:


Good post.
While a lot of your points are accurate, the main reason the Steelers are the best org in the nfl is consistency. They don’t fire people every time the wind blows in the opposite direction.
The problem with teams like the jets and browns is we hire first timers in high level positions and rarely allow for growth. We cut and run only to start over again with another group of first timers.
Macc falls into this category.

I will be delighted when we retain his services and watch him continue to grow into his position with a coach he actually wants. Not someone who needs a batch of very specific types of players to succeed, then can’t develop them or put them in proper positions to succeed.

I’m no macc lover but I am a lover of consistency. That’s what allows systems to prosper. Not the cries that 2/3 of the threads on this board are polluted with.
Macc has been on a solid path of improvement and is quite obviously getting better.
Consistency consistency consistency.

Consistency is only a virtue if you have the right people in the right jobs.

I would contend that the empirical evidence to-date would show that Macc is not the right people upon which to base organizational consistency.

Consistency of mediocrity is not what we're looking to achieve, and I've seen very little from Macc to indicate he is "gowing" in the way you appear to believe is possible.  His picks and moves now and in-line and equally obvious or ineffective as they were when he first started.  We are worse today, four years in, that the day Macc took over.  For a rebuild, Macc has failed utterly to improve the overall talent level and competitiveness of this franchise.

I agree with your premise, consistency is something we lack, and that hurts us.  But the solution is not consistency under poor leadership, the solution is to hire more experienced men qualified in their jobs with track records of some success/potential, that we can then build around.

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On 12/26/2018 at 7:59 AM, T0mShane said:

You’re aware that the higher draft pick occurs in rounds other than the first, yes? 

And that tanking for the 2nd over the 3rd in the first is all it's about.  Picking one spot higher in every other round is even less pointless and meaningless.  

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18 minutes ago, Joe W. Namath said:

Jets lose 31-28 with Darnold playing well is the perfect ending to this season.  Anyone who cant see that is a dolt.

Darnold getting a win over the Pats is more important than one spot in the draft order.

While I can appreciate your opinion - I'm certainly not a "dolt" for thinking our young QB getting a win over a team he'll have to play twice a year and the most dominant team in the history of the NFL is more important for his confidence going into the offseason than 1 or 2 spots on in a draft that has no guarantees and, by most accounts, no elite offensive talent.

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Bill Belichick IS NOT going to let Robbie Anderson dominate like he did last Sunday against the toothless Packers defense. Gilmore, McCourty? Bye, bye Robbie (Pats don't coach defense like Bowles/Rogers), they actually DO take away the biggest threats.

So, unless Herndon, the RBs, Burnett, Kearse, have the games of their lives up in New England Sunday, the Jets will be losing anyway. Let's just hope for another solid day for Sammy. He's going to have to be on his game & take what the Pats give him. Bates is going to have to use motion to get guys open. Another great practice ground for our future franchise QB, any success he has their Sunday will be great towards his future of dominance at Gillette when we surround him with an Oline & playmakers. 

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3 hours ago, bealeb319 said:

 

I've been seeing lots of posts and comments about how people are hoping the jets lose out for a better draft pick and what I want to know is who in this draft is worth tanking for. I will beat some of you to the punch here because trade down is not a valid answer for tanking this year, guess what if there are no star prospects that you think the jets should stay at that pick for than other teams probably feel that way as well.

 

Sent from my LGUS991 using JetNation.com mobile app

 

 

 

Just about everyone here is hoping Darnold plays great and Bowles finds a way to mismanage the end of games so we get a better draft pick. I don't see anything wrong about that. We have been able to watch guy likes Darnold/herndon/Anderson/Mcguire look good on offense while Kacy Rodgers/Bowles do their part in getting us a better draft pick.

It's been a glorious end to the season for Jets fans that "get it." 

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58 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

Darnold getting a win over the Pats is more important than one spot in the draft order.

While I can appreciate your opinion - I'm certainly not a "dolt" for thinking our young QB getting a win over a team he'll have to play twice a year and the most dominant team in the history of the NFL is more important for his confidence going into the offseason than 1 or 2 spots on in a draft that has no guarantees and, by most accounts, no elite offensive talent.

Hes got his confiedence now.  A meaningless win in week 17 is not doing anything for him.

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11 minutes ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

Just about everyone here is hoping Darnold plays great and Bowles finds a way to mismanage the end of games so we get a better draft pick. I don't see anything wrong about that. We have been able to watch guy likes Darnold/herndon/Anderson/Mcguire look good on offense while Kacy Rodgers/Bowles do their part in getting us a better draft pick.

It's been a glorious end to the season for Jets fans that "get it." 

End thread.

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3 hours ago, greenwichjetfan said:

I’m open to tanks when warranted, but this Sunday there is no reason to outright root for a loss. We have our PFQB and there is no one in the draft that excites me enough.

I want Sam to go out and have a career game. If he does that and Jets win, awesome. I hate the Pats more than anything and would love to mess with their home field advantage, the way we did in 2015 which caused them to have to go to Denver for the AFCCG.

If Sam dominates and Jets lose, oh well. That’s also great. However, I won’t be outright rooting for this outcome this time.

This.  I've been in the "lose pretty" camp since early November when the season evaporated.  I've wanted the Jets to play hard, Darnold to look good and like he's growing, but to ultimately lose close games.  From that standpoint the past two weeks have been perfect.  Fun, exciting football that doesn't hurt our Draft position.  But with the Patriots it's different.  F those guys!  Let's put the beat down on them or at least put a serious scare into them.  Wouldn't mind seeing the Texans win and the Jets knock the Pats out of a Bye in the first round.

Also, win lose or draw, going into Foxboro in late December when the Pats have something to play hard for.....that's GREAT experience for Sam Darnold.  After all, he's going to be winning a lot of football games in that stadium over the next decade.

Go Jets!

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It's too early to say anything, so why would anyone want to see losses? 

There are so many variables. 

What happens with Flacco? 

What happens with Eli or tannehill? 

I expect both top QBs to declare, but Herbert is thought of as a bit of a weirdo, and I read that nobody has any idea what he's planning. 

The actual order matters as well. Picking right before the jaguars you might get a little action, but is there really such a difference between these 2 QBs? 

 

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Last year I wanted to tank by playing Hack.  

Was afraid of getting stuck with Rosen or Jackson.  If they had they probably would still have 3 2's to put around Darnold.

This year out side of Bosa, there really isn't any one I would give up a win for, and feeling good about Darnold's last game of the season, so I hope the Jets blast the Pats.  (Probably won't happen Lil Bill is murder on rookie QB's)

If they do win, might be a long term good thing, might go with either Williams or  Little at 5 with out all the hate Macc "reach"  drama.  

Nah, LOL, even if the Jets somehow get Bosa there will be Hate Macc drama 

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