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Natahan Shepard another 3rd round bust for Maccagnan


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I don't exactly remember the timing, but I believe that the Jets traded for Anderson after they had already picked Shepard. But the truth is, that the Jets traded a 7th round pick that has been so productive that he has taking snaps away from the 3rd round pick. Does that make the 3rd round pick bad or the 7th  great? It is a class half-full thing. If you like Mac and support him than the 7th was great; if you don't like Mac and want him gone, than the 3rd was a waste.

Here is the thing. No matter how you look at it (full or empty), it is too early to tell if Shepard will pan out. Anderson was a gamble due to his health and Shepard, although old, is still raw within the NFL. Loosing snaps to another 3rd round pick with 3 years of experience isn't a death nail for a DL. Whether Mac is still here or not, we will know better towards the end of next year (or the year after) if Shepard is a dud. Also, it is great to get a starter out of a 3rd round pick (especially a high one), but a rotational player in the 3rd is not what you had hoped, he isn't a bust either.

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1 hour ago, TheNuuFaaolaExperience said:

Brought to you by the same people who labeled Darron Lee a bust. 

You mean the guy that did virtually nothing since about week 3 and then got suspended?  He had about two good games early in the year when he got nice picks, full credit to him but then he went back to be the type of ilb that can only tackle guys when he is chasing and getting blown out of the holes if teams run right at him.

Lee is not a good example of a guy who was poor and then suddenly was really  good.  Also Lee as a 3rd year player is younger than the guy we drafted from a small school last year.

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1 hour ago, ChuckkieB said:

ANY draft pick made by Mac over the last 4 years has an exponentially greater chance to bust  than the average non-Mac pick.  It' true.  It's science.  

but the question arises is that ebcause the coach cant coach. Look at the players that regressed, or never grown. It is hard to blame the gm soley when the coach sucks. I see the point for people when they say the both should go but I am torn on Macc because Bowles sucks soooo bad

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28 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

You mean the guy that did virtually nothing since about week 3 and then got suspended?  He had about two good games early in the year when he got nice picks, full credit to him but then he went back to be the type of ilb that can only tackle guys when he is chasing and getting blown out of the holes if teams run right at him.

Lee is not a good example of a guy who was poor and then suddenly was really  good.  Also Lee as a 3rd year player is younger than the guy we drafted from a small school last year.

No. I'm talking about the guy who shut down Gronkowski. 

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He has 5 starts, 15 combined tackles, 5 solos, 0 sacks and 5 Qb hits. He's dressed in every game. If he was totally a zero I guess he would have been not activated on game day. He's been in on 323 snap counts which is about 31%.  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/ShepNa00.htm

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nyj/2018-snap-counts.htm

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5 hours ago, Warfish said:

I'd like to believe that, I really would.  But I don't.

For one, you don't pick a reach, small school, older, "raw" player who needs multiple years to "develop" in the third round when you are as low on team talent as we were/are.  The seventh?  Sure.  Take a flier late.  In the third, we should expect a starter at most, or a contributor at the least, immediately.

Second, what gives anyone faith that Macc knew what he was doing selecting this low-probability prospect?  That there is real cause to have hope he'll suddenly be a productive player?

Lets look once again at Macc's record as a draft manager:

                   
Year Rnd Player Pick Pos To AP1 PB St CarAV G Cmp Att Yds TD Int Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD Int Sk College/Univ
2018 1 Sam Darnold 3 QB 2018 0 0 1 0 12 223 386 2698 17 15 43 110 1           USC
2018 3 Nathan Shepherd 72 DT 2018 0 0 0 0 15                           Fort Hays St.
2018 4 Christopher Herndon 107 TE 2018 0 0 1 0 15                 38 494 4     Miami (FL)
2018 6 Parry Nickerson 179 CB 2018 0 0 0 0 15                           Tulane
2018 6 Folorunso Fatukasi 180 DT 2018 0 0 0 0 1                           Connecticut
2018 6 Trenton Cannon 204 RB 2018 0 0 0 0 15           36 97 1 17 144 0     Virginia St.
Year Rnd Player Pick Pos To AP1 PB St CarAV G Cmp Att Yds TD Int Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD Int Sk College/Univ
2017 1 Jamal Adams 6 S 2018 0 1 2 7 31                       1 5.5 LSU
2017 2 Marcus Maye 39 S 2018 0 0 1 6 22                       3 0.5 Florida
2017 3 ArDarius Stewart 79 WR 2017 0 0 0 1 15           7 27 0 6 82 0     Alabama
2017 4 Chad Hansen 141 WR 2017 0 0 0 1 15                 9 94 0     California
2017 5 Jordan Leggett 150 TE 2018 0 0 0 0 14                 13 107 1     Clemson
2017 5 Dylan Donahue 181 DL 2017 0 0 0 0 4                           West Georgia
2017 6 Elijah McGuire 188 RB 2018 0 0 0 3 23           162 550 4 34 346 2     Louisiana
2017 6 Jeremy Clark 197 CB 2017 0 0 0 0 1                           Michigan
2017 6 Derrick Jones 204 CB 2017 0 0 0 0 3                           Mississippi
Year Rnd Player Pick Pos To AP1 PB St CarAV G Cmp Att Yds TD Int Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD Int Sk College/Univ
2016 1 Darron Lee 20 OLB 2018 0 0 3 12 40                       3 4.0 Ohio St.
2016 2 Christian Hackenberg 51 QB   0 0 0                               Penn St.
2016 3 Jordan Jenkins 83 OLB 2018 0 0 3 12 45                         12.5 Georgia
2016 4 Juston Burris 118 CB 2018 0 0 0 3 37                       2   North Carolina St.
2016 5 Brandon Shell 158 T 2018 0 0 2 7 34                           South Carolina
2016 7 Lac Edwards 235 P 2018 0 0 3 3 47 1 1 31 0 0 1 0 0           Sam Houston St.
2016 7 Charone Peake 241 WR 2018 0 0 0 1 30                 22 214 0     Clemson
Year Rnd Player Pick Pos To AP1 PB St CarAV G Cmp Att Yds TD Int Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD Int Sk College/Univ
2015 1 Leonard Williams 6 DE 2018 0 1 4 26 63                       1 16.0 USC
2015 2 Devin Smith 37 WR 2016 0 0 0 1 14                 10 135 1     Ohio St.
2015 3 Lorenzo Mauldin 82 OLB 2016 0 0 0 4 26                       1 6.5 Louisville
2015 4 Bryce Petty 103 QB 2017 0 0 0 4 10 130 245 1353 4 10 12 74 0           Baylor
2015 5 Jarvis Harrison 152 G   0 0 0                               Texas A&M
2015 7 Deon Simon 223 NT 2016 0 0 0 2 16                         1.5 NW State (LA)
Year Rnd Player Pick Pos To AP1 PB St CarAV G Cmp Att Yds TD Int Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD Int Sk College/Univ

 

There is not alot here to brag about tbqh.  Most of his picks are either role-filling JAG's, or gone as total busts.

Only his blindingly obvious 1st round picks (Adams, Darnold, Williams, Lee) can be considered at or above average players.  And even then, two are widely considered underperformers (Lee and Willaims). 

The 2nd and 3rd rounders?
2018 - Shephard - nothing of note in year #1
2017 - Maye - unneeded second Sagety, can't stay healthy, not much of a performer to-date
2017 - Stewart - bust WR #291
2016 - Hackenberg - never took a single snap, the only 2nd round QB to not do so in NFL history.
2016 - Jenkins - role filler at best.  To paraphrase Starship Troopers, he's fine in the job, till's he's hurt, or they find somebody better.
2015 - Devin Smith - bust WR #128
2015 - Mauldin - inspired momentary hope/hype, got a few sacks, but nothing really came of it.

Macc has been very VERY poor at drafting, it's really just that simple.  All his credit either comes from Darnold (which we paid a ton to move up to MAYBE get, and who fell into his lap because of the Giants of all teams), Adams (consensus pick), and that some of his late rounders have been retained as moderate-talent roster-spot-and-role-fillers (Shell, Jenkins, McGuire, etc.)

His only real "hit" that I see, is Herndon.  a 4th rounder who looks like he might be legit as a pass catching weapon.  

But Shephard.....it's hard to see him working out, simply because of all the factors involved and his lack of any notable performance to-date.  

It's premature, he could (stress could) surprise us all, the odds simply don't favor that.  And Macc is famous for missing in those rounds on guys he (and seemingle he alone) think are great that quickly wash out of the NFL.

I'm not disagreeing with anything regarding Macc and his draft record, don't get me wrong (although I do like Maye and think he can be a good one if he shake the injuries).  The one thing that actually gives me some hope on Shepard is the fact that he was a player that I, and a couple of other "draft guys", actually liked a lot going into the actual draft.  Usually we don't get any of the players we want because they go against everything Maccagnan believes in.  More importantly, I think the scheme is so bad that he's in a very tough position to succeed.  When he was drafted, I said that I thought we would be moving to more of a "base" 4-3 because where he could really shine in his first year is 4-3 DT and that it would take him a little bit longer to adjust to 3-4 NT because he needs to fill out his frame a little bit, and learn how to plug the gaps from the nose, something that's a little more "technical" and takes a bit to learn, even for veteran players making that transition.  Turns out that, not only did we not move to a base 4-3, but, if my eyes are correct, we've played less 4-3 than we have in years prior.  Couple that with all the other issues with Bowles's scheme (blitz and coverage packages not matching each other, horrendous defensive playcalling, etc.), and it's just to tough to make a clear assessment until we see him in a new scheme that plays to the personnels strengths, and a new staff that can actually coach players up.

Look, I think Shepard has a good chance of becoming something, but I totally recognize that Maccagnan's history scares people off from believing that, myself included.  No matter what happens though, calling it a career 15 games in is just way too early.  I'm no Darron Lee fan on a personal level, but he was the prime example of speaking to soon, and there was plenty more evidence that he was never going to take the jump that he did, on the field.

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4 hours ago, sec101row23 said:

He was playing more earlier in the season.  He did nothing.  Can’t fault Bowles on this one.  Bowles played Kaufusi more last week.   Can’t blame everything on Bowles.  

Well, that was because Leo punched his way out of the game.

Also, considering how poorly the defense played last week, even without the penalties, I can, and absolutely will, fault Bowles on that one.  The one thing that you can say about Shepard was that he wasn't playing flashy or racking up tackles/sacks, but he wasn't a liability either.  He plugged up gaps pretty well, created lanes for the blitzers, generated some pressure, and wasn't blown off the ball or pancaked.  Kaufusi, on the other hand, was a total liability out there.  There were a number of plays where I saw him getting manhandled and it affects more than just the DL when that happens.  The coaches should have recognized that.

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5 hours ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

Even if that were true, he wasn't fired and then landed us a franchise QB in Darnold, what looks like a future All pro Tight End in Herndon and freed up a fortune of cap space.

So now you guys are still calling for him to get fired? It's a colossal waste of breath. He is not getting fired. Deal with it. 

We can agree to disagree on the GM but you sound completely unintelligent suggesting Herndon looks like a future all pro. He’s having an excellent rookie season and I hope it happens but to suggest that after one season- go call WFAN overnight with that nonsense. 

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13 minutes ago, Mogglez said:

I'm not disagreeing with anything regarding Macc and his draft record, don't get me wrong (although I do like Maye and think he can be a good one if he shake the injuries).  The one thing that actually gives me some hope on Shepard is the fact that he was a player that I, and a couple of other "draft guys", actually liked a lot going into the actual draft.  Usually we don't get any of the players we want because they go against everything Maccagnan believes in.  More importantly, I think the scheme is so bad that he's in a very tough position to succeed.  When he was drafted, I said that I thought we would be moving to more of a "base" 4-3 because where he could really shine in his first year is 4-3 DT and that it would take him a little bit longer to adjust to 3-4 NT because he needs to fill out his frame a little bit, and learn how to plug the gaps from the nose, something that's a little more "technical" and takes a bit to learn, even for veteran players making that transition.  Turns out that, not only did we not move to a base 4-3, but, if my eyes are correct, we've played less 4-3 than we have in years prior.  Couple that with all the other issues with Bowles's scheme (blitz and coverage packages not matching each other, horrendous defensive playcalling, etc.), and it's just to tough to make a clear assessment until we see him in a new scheme that plays to the personnels strengths, and a new staff that can actually coach players up.

Look, I think Shepard has a good chance of becoming something, but I totally recognize that Maccagnan's history scares people off from believing that, myself included.  No matter what happens though, calling it a career 15 games in is just way too early.  I'm no Darron Lee fan on a personal level, but he was the prime example of speaking to soon, and there was plenty more evidence that he was never going to take the jump that he did, on the field.

Let me be clear, the guy is a Jet now, so I hope he works out.  I hope you are right, and I am wrong.

And I appreciate that the "draft guys" may have liked him, thats fine, for what it's worth.

I simply don't see it.  And given the Maccrecord (get it, Track Record + Macc = Maccrecord....damn I make myself lol \\:D/)  I have a hard time seeing a guy who appears to my eyes to be a very material reach type pick working out, for no other reason than Macc liked him, and Macc....well, his evaluations warrant cynicism.

But I hope you're right, for no other reason than maybe we won;t have to spend another 3 draft picks in 2019 searching for that elusive "pass rush" we spend so much capital trying (and failing) to get.

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And this who the Jets traded away and selected Chad Hansen. a LB with more TD's than Hansen and Steward combined. 

April 29, 2017: Traded by Rams as 2017 4th round pick (141st overall) with 2017 6th round pick (197th overall, Jeremy Clark) to Jets for 2017 4th round pick (125th overall, Samson Ebukam)

        Tackles Def Interceptions Fumbles
Date Week Tm   Opp Result GS TD Sk Solo Ast Comb TFL QBHits Int Yds TD PD Fmb FF FR Yds TD
2018-09-10 1 LAR @ OAK W 33-13 * 0 0.0 3 1 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2018-09-16 2 LAR   ARI W 34-0 * 0 1.0 1 0 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2018-09-23 3 LAR   LAC W 35-23 * 0 0.0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2018-09-27 4 LAR   MIN W 38-31 * 0 0.0 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2018-10-07 5 LAR @ SEA W 33-31 * 0 0.0 3 2 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2018-10-14 6 LAR @ DEN W 23-20 * 0 0.0 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
2018-10-21 7 LAR @ SFO W 39-10 * 0 1.0 3 0 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
2018-10-28 8 LAR   GNB W 29-27 * 0 0.0 2 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2018-11-04 9 LAR @ NOR L 35-45 * 0 0.0 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
2018-11-11 10 LAR   SEA W 36-31 * 0 0.0 2 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2018-11-19 11 LAR   KAN W 54-51   2 1.0 2 1 3 1 2 1 25 1 1 0 0 1 11 1
2018-12-02 13 LAR @ DET W 30-16 * 0 0.0 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
2018-12-09 14 LAR @ CHI L 6-15 * 0 0.0 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2018-12-16 15 LAR   PHI L 23-30   0 0.0 0 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2018-12-23 16 LAR @ ARI W 31-9 * 0 0.0 0 0 0     0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Upcoming Games · Bye in Week 12
2018-12-30 17 LAR   SFO Preview · Stats for 3 games vs. 49ers · Avg. 0.3 sk, 0.0 int, 2.0 tckl (Last in 2018)
Rams 2018 Stats and Schedule · Samson Ebukam Splits · Samson Ebukam Gamelogs · Penalties

 

 

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4 hours ago, bitonti said:

people who are hesitant to write off Nathan Shepherd haven't watched PJ Hill 

or all these other rookies that showed flashes

Shepherd is a gap eating 5 tech at best with zero physical upside due to his age. it was a bad pick, and a knee jerk reaction to replacing Mo, Sheldon and Snacks. They went from having all sorts of DL to having none. 

they got lucky with Henry Anderson but keep in mind they also drafted Foley that's a 3rd a 6th and the 7th into the DL

wonder where your developmental OL went? the DL. 

You maybe right but I'm not writing him off yet.

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21 minutes ago, Mogglez said:

I'm not disagreeing with anything regarding Macc and his draft record, don't get me wrong (although I do like Maye and think he can be a good one if he shake the injuries).  The one thing that actually gives me some hope on Shepard is the fact that he was a player that I, and a couple of other "draft guys", actually liked a lot going into the actual draft.  Usually we don't get any of the players we want because they go against everything Maccagnan believes in.  More importantly, I think the scheme is so bad that he's in a very tough position to succeed.  When he was drafted, I said that I thought we would be moving to more of a "base" 4-3 because where he could really shine in his first year is 4-3 DT and that it would take him a little bit longer to adjust to 3-4 NT because he needs to fill out his frame a little bit, and learn how to plug the gaps from the nose, something that's a little more "technical" and takes a bit to learn, even for veteran players making that transition.  Turns out that, not only did we not move to a base 4-3, but, if my eyes are correct, we've played less 4-3 than we have in years prior.  Couple that with all the other issues with Bowles's scheme (blitz and coverage packages not matching each other, horrendous defensive playcalling, etc.), and it's just to tough to make a clear assessment until we see him in a new scheme that plays to the personnels strengths, and a new staff that can actually coach players up.

Look, I think Shepard has a good chance of becoming something, but I totally recognize that Maccagnan's history scares people off from believing that, myself included.  No matter what happens though, calling it a career 15 games in is just way too early.  I'm no Darron Lee fan on a personal level, but he was the prime example of speaking to soon, and there was plenty more evidence that he was never going to take the jump that he did, on the field.

Sheppard isn't grading too badly according to PFF. They have him at a 67.4. No impact plays, but he isn't getting blow off the line (as you said).

It's interesting that you look at Sheppard as a NT in a 3-4. I always assumed he would be a 5 tech in a 3-4. 

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3 hours ago, Beerfish said:

You mean the guy that did virtually nothing since about week 3 and then got suspended?  He had about two good games early in the year when he got nice picks, full credit to him but then he went back to be the type of ilb that can only tackle guys when he is chasing and getting blown out of the holes if teams run right at him.

Lee is not a good example of a guy who was poor and then suddenly was really  good.  Also Lee as a 3rd year player is younger than the guy we drafted from a small school last year.

To be fair, while what you said about Lee is correct, he is the perfect example of Bowles/Rogers not using a player correctly.

He is exactly the type of player who should be chasing plays, covering in space, blitzing etc.  Yet Bowles and Rogers insist on putting him in position to get blown out of running plays by C/G who out weigh him by 75 lbs. 

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1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

"I haven't given up on _______ (insert Macc draft pick) yet".

How many times have people said this the last 4 years?  And how many times has that worked out?

For once, I'd like to see a draft choice that balls out immediately.  That would be nice. 

How about the rookie QB that's balling out?

I'll take a handful or two of defensive busts if the guys hits his QB pick out of the park.

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10 hours ago, JetsFanatic said:

He was 24 years old when drafted and turned 25 during the season.

If  you buy a car, store it for a couple of years, then take it out and use it , is  it going to run like an old car right away?  I don't think so.  You are right: he's 25 years old, not 45.  Three years at this stage in his career should not be the big deal that a lot of people seem to be making of it.

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Wow 1st year players are now bust got to love jets fans. Give the kid some time it not like he even came from a top football college. 

 

He’s 25.

 

And you’re talking about him like he’s a 6th rounder. He was our 2nd pick in the same draft as a QB.

 

The plan should have been to take OL or WR there. So if we’re gonna have the audacity to take yet another DT, then no, “giving him time” was never gonna be acceptable.

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2 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

He’s 25.

 

And you’re talking about him like he’s a 6th rounder. He was our 2nd pick in the same draft as a QB.

 

The plan should have been to take OL or WR there. So if we’re gonna have the audacity to take yet another DT, then no, “giving him time” was never gonna be acceptable.

He was a 3rd round pick from a small college give him time not every player drafted is a super star day one they are rare. By your account every team in nfl can’t draft because most draft picks unless it’s a 1st don’t see field that much. 

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22 hours ago, Beerfish said:

The big issue is his age going hand in hand with lower level of competition coming into the league.

With a 22-23 year old guy you can say, hey learning curve, he has the physical part he will learn in time. 

By the time he learns he will be 28 and unless he looks really good then teams will look to replace him.

Yep. Same time frame, profile, and draft capital as Pouha, and look what a bust he turned out to be.

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He was a 3rd round pick from a small college give him time not every player drafted is a super star day one they are rare. By your account every team in nfl can’t draft because most draft picks unless it’s a 1st don’t see field that much. 

 

No. By my account, and statistically, Macc is the worst drafter in the NFL. Thus, he doesn’t deserve the benefit of the doubt on the Shepherd pick.

 

Produce or GTFO at this point.

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11 hours ago, Doggin94it said:

Yep. Same time frame, profile, and draft capital as Pouha, and look what a bust he turned out to be.

Pouha came from a much higher level of competition and was an exception.  Most people agree he was an exception at the time. 

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On 12/27/2018 at 8:26 PM, Rolloffjet said:

Wow 1st year players are now bust got to love jets fans. Give the kid some time it not like he even came from a top football college. 

What it is, IMO, is a lot of sour grapes about Mac not getting fired. We have to slam Mac at every turn; go after every decision in order to justify the anger. The funny thing is that Shepard will likely not turn out to be a bad pick. And, there are way more picks to harp on. But, hey, soon enough we will be able to complain about the HC we select (or didn't select).

Happy New Year

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