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Great article from Mike Tanier over at Bleacher Report.  It's a longread, so I'll just post a few clips. Go read the whole thing:

 

Quote

His Passing Numbers Don't Lie: Tom Brady Really Is Getting Old

 

Mike Tanier

Tom Brady is getting old.

...

Brady hasn't slipped to Peyton Manning 2015 or Brett Favre 2010 levels just yet. But a close look at the numbers reveals he has reached the point where the Patriots offense is built more to compensate for his weaknesses than to rely on his strengths, making Brady and the Patriots more vulnerable in the playoffs than they have been in over a decade.

...

Let's examine Brady's rankings in some easy-to-understand Next Gen Stats metrics:

Time to throw calculates how many seconds elapse before the throw, per pass attempt. Brady ranks seventh in the NFL at 2.6 seconds per throw.

Completed air yards and intended air yards measure the down-the-field distance of the average pass attempt and pass completion. Brady's average attempt travels 7.6 yards downfield, which ranks 24th in the NFL. His average completion travels just 5.6 yards, which ranks 23rd.

Air yards to the sticks measures how far in front of or past the first-down marker the average pass attempt travels. Brady's AYS figure is minus-1.1: His typical throw travels to a point 1.1 yards in front of the first-down marker, which ranks 21st.

Aggressiveness measures the percent of passes thrown into tight windows, as measured by the GPS gizmos. Brady's figure is 13.9 percent, which ranks 27th.

For a moment, let's suspend any value judgments and unpack these stats to create a snapshot of Brady's 2018 passing results.

Brady got rid of the ball faster than all but six quarterbacks this season. ...

He consistently throws and completes shorter passes than most other starting quarterbacks. ...

Brady rarely threw into tight windows. ...

...

  • Brady's intended air yards figure was 9.0 per attempt in 2017, 1.4 yards per attempt higher than this year's. His 2016 figure was 8.1.
  • Brady's completed air yards figure was 6.6 in 2017 and 6.3 in 2016. The differences seem small until you multiply 0.7 or 1.0 yard per completion by a few hundred completions.
  • Brady's aggressiveness percentages were 17.0 in 2017 and 17.6 in 2016, far higher than his 2018 rate of throwing into traffic.
...

Brady's numbers suggest not an All-Pro but a...(bracing for impact)...veteran game manager.

...

Let's give the Next Gen Stats a break and focus on a straightforward stat split: third-down passing, a fairly reliable indicator of a quarterback's contribution to the offense.

Here are Brady's three-year splits, as well as his career averages and the 2018 NFL rates, on 3rd-and-4 or more yards to go. I avoided short-yardage passes because no one would seriously suggest Brady has forgotten how to find Julian Edelman on 3rd-and-2. We're looking for longer, trickier throws:

  • Brady in 2018: 50.5% completion rate on 3rd-and-4-plus; 34.3% conversion rate for 1st downs
  • Brady in 2017: 55.9% on 3rd-and-4-plus; 41.4% for 1st downs
  • Brady in 2016: 65.3% on 3rd-and-4-plus; 43.2% for 1st downs
  • Brady in career: 57.6% on 3rd-and-4-plus; 39.8% for 1st downs
  • NFL average in 2018: 58.9% on 3rd-and-4-plus; 36.2% for 1st downs
...

The Patriots have been compensating for Brady's limitations with run-heavy game plans (see Week 16 against the Bills) and lots of screens and swing passes (James White led the team in both targets and receptions).

...

Brady is old, and his skills are slipping. The numbers don't lie. It's only controversial among those who don't want it to be true.

There is still no quarterback in the NFL—no, not even Foles—more dangerous with the ball in his hands in the fourth quarter of a Super Bowl than Brady.

But this year, Brady is going to need more help than ever to get into that situation.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2814412-his-passing-numbers-dont-lie-tom-brady-really-is-getting-old

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I follow him on Twitter. Seen this article drop this morning. It definitely has some convincing points in it. You can see with the naked eye that Brady isn’t what he use to be. I watched the Steelers game and he looked the worst I have ever seen him. Just god awful.

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Yep, it's been very evident since early in the year. He's had down years before but isn't likely to bounce back from this imo. Father time is undefeated.

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The Pats(+referees) haven't even stepped on the field for the playoffs yet.  Thanks for jinxing it.

 

 

 

But yeah, it's really sort of true.

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6 minutes ago, CTM said:

Yep, it's been very evident since early in the year. He's had down years before but isn't likely to bounce back from this imo. Father time is undefeated.

Agreed. And even in his more recent years, his winter play has been bad; I was warning my friends to stay away from him in fantasy since November

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7 minutes ago, Patriot Killa said:

I follow him on Twitter. Seen this article drop this morning. It definitely has some convincing points in it. You can see with the naked eye that Brady isn’t what he use to be. I watched the Steelers game and he looked the worst I have ever seen him. Just god awful.

That's how I found it, too.  What's your twitter handle?

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If the Patsies beat the Chargers this weekend, they're going to the Super Bowl.

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6 minutes ago, CTM said:

Yep, it's been very evident since early in the year. He's had down years before but isn't likely to bounce back from this imo. Father time is undefeated.

The real question is which part of his ego is going to win out.  Will retirement start to become more appealing because he wants to go out on top and not risk any down year or possibly replacement happening while he's still in the league?  Or will he be so convinced of his own greatness despite it all, that he'll go down trying to prove any doubters wrong?  I don't particularly care either way, but just as long as it happens soon, I'm good with it.  Although, I won't lie, I wouldn't hate the idea of him having an absolutely miserably awful end to his career for all to see.

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2 hours ago, Bleedin Green said:

The real question is which part of his ego is going to win out.  Will retirement start to become more appealing because he wants to go out on top and not risk any down year or possibly replacement happening while he's still in the league?  Or will he be so convinced of his own greatness despite it all, that he'll go down trying to prove any doubters wrong?  I don't particularly care either way, but just as long as it happens soon, I'm good with it.  Although, I won't lie, I wouldn't hate the idea of him having an absolutely miserably awful end to his career for all to see.

Lol on the last sentence. I suspect he'll see this article and it will provide him some extra motivation. I wouldn't doubt him finding some of that old magic this weekend either. I actually saw an interview the other day where Doug Collins was talking about benching Jordan during towards the end of his career a game and not realizing it broke his streak of like 1000 games with double digit points. On the plane ride home Jordan came and sat next to his coach and asked him if he thought he could still play. Collins responded yes and Jordan went out and hung 96 points the next two nights before petering out. Brady has that same competitive fire that Jordan had imo

Personally I think he won't accept reality and hang on for another year. I don't know if he has that Peyton Manning fall off a cliff season or not next year but unless Belichick surrounds him with mega talent (Antonio Brown?)  for one more run the numbers will be worse for sure.

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not for nothing but does this article look at the scrubs tommy boy is throwing to?  edelman was out for 4 games and josh gordon decided to relapse.  not mention gronkowski isn't quite the player he was a few seasons back.  i sense tommy boy is declining but he is still playing way better than most of the qb's and is the main reason why the patsies have a chance to do well in the playoffs.

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Just now, rangerous said:

not for nothing but does this article look at the scrubs tommy boy is throwing to?  edelman was out for 4 games and josh gordon decided to relapse.  not mention gronkowski isn't quite the player he was a few seasons back.  i sense tommy boy is declining but he is still playing way better than most of the qb's and is the main reason why the patsies have a chance to do well in the playoffs.

This.  Declining but still very good and dangerous.  

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2 hours ago, rangerous said:

not for nothing but does this article look at the scrubs tommy boy is throwing to?  edelman was out for 4 games and josh gordon decided to relapse.  not mention gronkowski isn't quite the player he was a few seasons back.  i sense tommy boy is declining but he is still playing way better than most of the qb's and is the main reason why the patsies have a chance to do well in the playoffs.

Yes I think the drop off has been from elite/goat level to just very good. But very good is still very good, Rivers is very good.

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Looks like he'll be "getting old" in the Super Bowl yet again, so yeah, so what.

Wake me when they miss the playoffs and don't sweep US twice.....

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Deep down you know Belichick wanted to part ways and develop Jimmy G last year. Kraft wouldn't let him...

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This article clinches the Pats going to the Super Bowl. Never toast to the death of an enemy until you are at his funeral.

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Can we wait until the Patriots lose a playoff game this season before we start with the Tom Brady’s done chants. 

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20 minutes ago, peebag said:

If the Patsies beat the Chargers this weekend, they're going to the Super Bowl.

:-k Pats take care of the chiefs in KC?

If so, it will have to be a brilliant defensive coaching scheme by Lil' Bill to slow that team down.

Their defense sucks..... but they score at will most of the time.

Rooting for SD to go to the SB. Rivers deserves a ring!

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9 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Looks like he'll be "getting old" in the Super Bowl yet again, so yeah, so what.

Wake me when they miss the playoffs and don't sweep US twice.....

2027?

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Would love Rivers & the Chargers to bump them off in Gillette. Does Brady want to go through the grind again on a team in decline? Gronk looks old, Edelman has been getting dinged up a lot & definitely has some brain damage from the concussions he's been allowed to keep playing with (no doubt in my mind he was concussed in that Falcon Super Bowl comeback & he should have been watching from the sidelines). 

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1 hour ago, Doggin94it said:

Brady is old, and his skills are slipping. The numbers don't lie. It's only controversial among those who don't want it to be true.

There is still no quarterback in the NFL—no, not even Foles—more dangerous with the ball in his hands in the fourth quarter of a Super Bowl than Brady.

But this year, Brady is going to need more help than ever to get into that situation.

Help is on the way ...

tom-brady-referee-ftr_1mdzwlanfikp81aw9gg4mb1yka.thumb.jpg.f0294b7dac4455e040aa5bc94e692ace.jpg

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10 minutes ago, Joe W. Namath said:

So a 43 year old athlete is declining.  Whod a thunk it?

Yes, but he has the chemical regimen of a 23 year old.

 

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1 hour ago, jpoppy717 said:

This.  Declining but still very good and dangerous.  

Still one of the best QBs in the league. 

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1 hour ago, The Crusher said:

This article clinches the Pats going to the Super Bowl. Never toast to the death of an enemy until you are at his funeral.

Speaking of this, can we start planning the tailgate for that funeral?

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Oh I know he is declining i had the jack ass as my staring QB in FF and ended up in last place overall.

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The problem is that the league sucks and the Pats have gotten away with playing in one of the worst divisions every single year, so the Pats do the thing that the Lakers used to do with Shaq; just cruise through the regular season and then hopefully Brady can save his body for the playoffs.

Also worth noting that science is one hell of a thing but when you can't outright inject Turinabol anymore it changes things. About 10 years from now there are going to be some crazy stories about what Brady and his team have been doing the past few years. That guy is on something. You can't walk around completely healthy, playing like he has been the past few years, simply on Himalayan salt and cutting out tomatoes. Human beings do not recover like him at 41 barring billion to one genetics and it's very obvious he doesn't have that.

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"Defensive holding, that's a 5 yard penalty and an automatic first down "

Let me know when the games are called fairly and the patriots go on the road week 17 and play 3 games in 11 days 

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2 hours ago, Bleedin Green said:

The real question is which part of his ego is going to win out.  Will retirement start to become more appealing because he wants to go out on top and not risk any down year or possibly replacement happening while he's still in the league?  Or will he be so convinced of his own greatness despite it all, that he'll go down trying to prove any doubters wrong?  I don't particularly care either way, but just as long as it happens soon, I'm good with it.  Although, I won't lie, I wouldn't hate the idea of him having an absolutely miserably awful end to his career for all to see.

Can't wait

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1 hour ago, BroadwayRay said:

Help is on the way ...

tom-brady-referee-ftr_1mdzwlanfikp81aw9gg4mb1yka.thumb.jpg.f0294b7dac4455e040aa5bc94e692ace.jpg

 

87DF19C0-E510-49E6-83FA-13F561BD2CB6.jpeg

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3 minutes ago, Larz said:

"Defensive holding, that's a 5 yard penalty and an automatic first down "

Let me know when the games are called fairly and the patriots go on the road week 17 and play 3 games in 11 days 

Probably right around the same time after both Brady and Belichick retire?  What a coincidence!

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1 hour ago, Joe W. Namath said:

So a 43 year old athlete is declining.  Whod a thunk it?

Don’t worry he still has guacamole ice cream and steroids

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Just now, Bleedin Green said:

Probably right around the same time after both Brady and Belichick retire?  What a coincidence!

The day Brady retires Belichick will be sprinting out of Foxboro 

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