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Gase Fair Expectations


jetspenguin

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Just now, Vader said:

Yes he is acting in the owners interest and maybe has some marginal stake financially. But finance doesn’t really work like how you are describing. 

What?  Financially?  Who they hire as HC effects the bottom line how?  Jets sell out, attendance is steady no matter who the HC has been over the years.  And thats with Kotite in the mix.  Again, you dont put someone in charge and then cut off their nuts when you feel like it.  If its as some think whats the point of CJ?  

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I think this could go in a number of different directions?

  • If Gase exhibits any sign of weakness or poor coaching, poor QB development or erratic behavior, he and Mac are gone.
  • If Mac's 2019 off season looks like his prior ones, but Gase coaches them well, Mac could go on this own.  If is another Tremaine Johnson, Ardarious Stewart or Nathan Shepherd, he is gone.  
  • I don't think there is a scenario where Mac stays and Gase goes.  
  • This analysis does not focus on record.  IF Gase does a decent job coaching, with the new system surprise and new players factor this team should win at least 8 games.  Could be injuries, etc.   He think it will be evident on its face if Mac and/or Gase should return in 2020.  It was evident to me that Bowles should not have.  It was also evident that Mac should not have.  
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4 hours ago, jetspenguin said:

Bowles- 2015, 1st time head coach inherits 4-12 record, last place schedule with 100 mil in cap space, Mac at GM with Geno/Fitz at QB and they win 10 Games

Gase- 2019, 1st time head coach inherits 4-12 record, last place schedule with 100 mil in cap space, Mac at GM with Darnold at QB.

What is a realistic win total for his first year that would convince you we hired the right guy?

This team will be a playoff contender at worst, the upgrade at HC would have given us at least 3-4 more wins this past season.  Next yr in year 2 of Sam, the cap space, high picks in each Rd and hopefully Williams as DC we will compete for a playoff spot.

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4 hours ago, jetspenguin said:

I honestly dont think they get to 7 wins this year but expect them to look better both offensively and defensively which will appease a lot of fans because of the garbage we have grown accustomed to the last 7 years or so. Just the slightest sign of life and he will be given a little more rope by those that today want to hang him by his shorts. 

 

4 hours ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

It’s not about wins for me in the short term.  This coaching decision is all about developing Darnold.  

So long as we responsibly allocate our cap and draft (haha, Macc), I expect Darnold to pass for 4,500 yards, 30 TD’s and have a 2:1 TD to INT ratio next year.  If that is accomplished, Gase will have been a good hire.

mix well and viola

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1 hour ago, FidelioJet said:

I can say I'm calming down a bit...

But I would love to hear what those optimistic things are.  I've looked, hoping to find something and the deeper I dig the more problems I see.

I don't mean that sarcastically, I am truly interested to hear some good things about the guy - I would love to come around and not be miserable and furious about this hiring.

Hey man, I hear you. And it's no lie that there are problems out there with him. 

But here's thing thing with this, and really just in life, right - We can twist things to fit the narrative we're feeling even if we don't realize we do it... And I don't mean that in a negative way. It's the way our minds work. It's how we talk ourselves in and out of things. We interpret things that are complex or more intangible. 

So I'll just point out a couple things that I'm optimistic about... But that's me taking these examples and seeing them through the color glasses that I want too... That's me seeing the same problems as some, but maybe 1 or 2 more reasons to be optimistic too...  Chances are you'll do the same thing, with your own color spectacles. 

It doesn't mean either of us are right or wrong, you know? It's just how we take in the data, process it, and spit it back out.

So with that in mind, and knowing that most people will have a rebuttal that starts with "Ya, ok, but you're wrong because.." reply to these that is just as valid as my points:

(Also, just to be clear, I'm not a Gase Super Fan... I wasn't pining for the guy and I'm not convinced he's some genius HoF coach... I see PLENTY of red flags too, like his constant desire to pass on 3rd and 1, and the way his defenses just vanished sometimes... But these are just some reasons I find to believe.)

- The 2016 Dolphins were a  hot team. I believe that he helped Tannehill become a smarter and more efficient QB. Also, he coached up the offensive line to a high level. He hit career highs in completion percentage and yards gained per attempt. His sack numbers went from 45 in 15' to 29 in 2016.... When Gase's chosen QB and OL were healthy and all on the field that year they averaged 6.8 points, 152.3 rushing yards, and Tannehill’s passer rating was 104.7.... Gase's system was working. I think those all point to Tannehill getting smarter as a QB. 

- Speaking of the OL, Gase was at least slightly involved in the Dolphins 1st round pick of OT Laremy Tunsil in the draft... He's been hurt, which makes the pick not look as good, but after suffering through poor OL performances with the Jets lately it makes me more optimistic that Gase might push for OL help this offseason. 

- I don't put much stock into the 2017 Dolphins performance. I think Gase and the Dolphins panicked when they went for Cutler...  I think Cutler was stubborn and reckless and really not excited to come out of retirement. I think it's hard to coach that... The offensive line was also destroyed by injuries. Including 2018, they've had something like 18 different OL starting lineups. Gase has tried everything and everyone to get it to work, but it just wasn't gelling. Part of that is surely on him... Maybe a "good" coach would have figured something out. But I think he did a decent job with what he had in front of him talent wise. I don't think they played worse because of him. I look around and I don't see anyone who would have done more with that roster or Jay Cutler at the helm... 

- If you look at this year, Tannehill looks like he pulled back a little but some of his numbers indicated he should have averaged out to something better. His TD% per attempt this season was 6.2 after being 4.9 in 2016. His yards per attempt were down from 2016, but higher than any other time in his career. His INTs were also up, but when put against the TDs his overall rating was still up. 

- Don't forget also that Gase had these guys in the playoff hunt this year. Yes the overall offensive rankings were low, but the results were there for most of the season. They lost to GB, NE, Houston, and Minny on the road. Those are tough games, but they were still in the hunt... Tannehill got injured in the 2nd quarter of the win over the pats in week 14, and never looked the same. He wasn't right and it threw them into that 3 game tailspin at the end of the season that's made the whole season look worse than it was. If they win 1 of those games Gase probably still has a job. 

- I don't know a lot about football when it comes down to it, so I generally trust the guys that do, even when it's sometimes a whole bunch of window dressing. So I trust Manning going out of his way with his endorsement of Gase. I trust that Darnold knows what kind of coach and gameplan will be good for him. I trust Bill Cowher's praise of the move. John Fox also said he was the perfect QB for Darnold right now...  I trust that they're not completely spitting nonsense at as... There is something there that they see.

 

At the end of the day, I'm not trying to convince anyone. I'm not trying to get you or anyone else to say "Oh ya! You're right! Woo Gase!." I'm not saying Gase is the Second coming and the best coach in the universe...

I'm just trying to sit back and dig through what we know and locate the things that show promise... Because they are out there... There are reasons to believe, depending on what you want to see and find. He has his issues, absolutely... Those are loud and we all know them... But he's a smart guy with some innovative ideas who some really smart football people like and who has gotten results from some truly mediocre players, QBs, and teams. 

...and apologies for the novel.

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1 hour ago, Warfish said:

8 minimum.  Nothing less is acceptable.

 

Agree with this. Hes basically a .500 coach as it is now and that was with injuries at QB. If he is the QB whisperer they say he is, he should be able to get better QB play out of Darnold than he ever had in Miami and win at least 8

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Coach Gase is capable of coaching us to an 11-5 win season but it's up to Maccagnan to get him the playmakers he needs to make that happen.

Adam is a proven commodity; if we are a disappointment next year its on Mike entirely.

SAR I

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Just now, Jet Life said:

Agree with this. Hes basically a .500 coach as it is now and that was with injuries at QB. If he is the QB whisperer they say he is, he should be able to get better QB play out of Darnold than he ever had in Miami and win at least 8

Regardless of who we hired, .500 would be my expectation.

A 2nd Year Darnold.

100 million in cap space to obtain talent.

The #3 overall pick.

A young roster with some talent that was perhaps poorly managed under Bowles (Jamal, but others too).

When you've been as horrible as us, you don't hire someone if you don't think they can return you to .500-level mediocrity at the very least early on.

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Here are my expectations:

Trade out of 3 and accumulate extra picks.

Use the cap money to pursue good, young FA's that can contribute for a few years, not one year and done. Don't waste the money on a one year quick fix.

Draft solid players who can help Darnold grow, preferably OL and WR and find a Pass rusher if possible too.

I'd like to see progression from Darnold this year. More TD's, less Int's, more yards, and more wins

I'd expect them to be in competition for a WC for the last few weeks, but don't expect them to get one.

I expect them to be setup to compete for a division title the following year, and hopefully a first round bye

 

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