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How to Bet the NFC Conference Championship Game


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We split our divisional round picks last weekend because of the Saints slowed offensive production. But that is ok. The Patriots did exactly what we thought they would and got us back to evens.

Now we are down to four teams and two games to decide who is going to the Super Bowl. The lines have settled at the best online sportsbook, but is there any real value to be had with either of these games?

Los Angeles Rams @ New Orleans Saints -3.5

These were the two best teams in the National Football Conference all season long. And now they collide for the second time in NOLA.

Some Historical Data

These two teams perform differently ATS while taking on good teams. The Rams are only one and four against the spread when taking on teams that are over .550. While the Saints have covered five of seven against teams that are over .550. So we see a stark difference right off the bat.

New Orleans is 3rd in yards per play at home, 3rd in points per contest. Maybe even better is the fact that the Saints are 1st in the league at the defense’s time on field and 2nd in rushing yards allowed. But, despite the Rams’ inability to get road covers, they still have one of the best defenses in the League, allowing just 19.88 points per game while on the highway.

Speaking of points allowed, the TOTAL is listed at 56.5. In NFC Championship games, the OVER has cashed for four years straight. But with both of these teams having such stout defenses, this could be the year that the TOTAL stays low. 55% of the public is already on the OVER, so we may want to wait it out and see it doesn’t move to 57 or 57.5 by Saturday.

Going back to the Spread, the Saints offense is No. 2 in time on the field and No. 3 overall in scoring. We saw what happened the last time these two teams met. In fact, it isn’t just the last time. The Saints are 3-0 at home against the Rams both in victories and ATS. They have won by an average margin of 18.67 points. Over the last three in any situation, the Saints are 2-1 both ATS and in wins and hold a 10.67 margin of victory.

Ultimately, the Saints are going to nullify the Los Angeles Rams running game just like they did last time. Then it is going to come down to Goff and his core of receivers vs. Brees and his core. When we look at it like that, I have to side with the Saints to cover the number. That said, I am going to buy that hook down and take the Saints -3. I also like the UNDER on this one. Everyone is going to be pounding the OVER because it’s the Saints and Rams … but the most I see the score getting run up to is 30-20. Most likely it will be a 26-21 type game. So, wait on the line and see if you can get it at 57 or more, but 56.5 is still worth taking.

Betting Prediction: Take the New Orleans Saints -3 and UNDER 56.5 or more.

I am not making a play on the New England vs. Kansas City game just yet. Forget about the spread, as either team could gain momentum and walk away with this game. I tend to think that the Chiefs will win at home in Arrowhead, but Brady and the Pats are on a roll and well … it’s Tom Brady and Belichick. There is just too much risk. Where your money is concerned, stick with the Saints.

The post How to Bet the NFC Conference Championship Game appeared first on JetNation.com (NY Jets Blog & Forum).

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I wanted to go KC.....but with the weather I just cant pick against NE as much as I'd like to with their track record.

I gotta go NE vs NO. If they lose you'll have my jinx to thank for it.

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Windmill slam the Patriots. It’s annoying as hell but they’re in full blown, Rodney Harrison crying after the game ‘nobody thought we could do it but we really hung in there and beat the 0-for-forever Browns,’ pretending to be underdogs mode. When they’re fake humble they eat turds but when they’re fake disrespected they eat souls.

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I like the under in KC vs Pats. Belicheck is gonna play power football and run run run and try to control the clock and not give KC the ball. On defense the Pats are gonna play pass and dare KC to run and make KC dink and dunk down the field. Pats want a low scoring less possessions game. KC might and I hope they win but I think the game goes under 58 pts. 

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13 hours ago, Miss Lonelyhearts said:

Windmill slam the Patriots. It’s annoying as hell but they’re in full blown, Rodney Harrison crying after the game ‘nobody thought we could do it but we really hung in there and beat the 0-for-forever Browns,’ pretending to be underdogs mode. When they’re fake humble they eat turds but when they’re fake disrespected they eat souls.

That is true.

However, Ive been really impressed with Mahommes, reporters tried to feed him the passing the torch stuff and he didnt touch it. "I'm nowhere near what Brady's accomplished plus hes still playing elite and will be for more years.."  it came off as genuine. A dirtbag like Baker wouldnt have been so humble. 

I think Mahommes plays well and it's going to be tough for the Pat's. One of the main scenarios I see for a Pat's win is a Reid or Mahommes implosion 

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On 1/18/2019 at 7:40 PM, TuscanyTile2 said:

I like the 1st half under (27.5) in the chiefs pats game.  I expect Mahomes to have some jitters to start (biggest game of his career, home crowd pressure, cold weather and BB probably plays keep away by running the ball early).  

 It looks like I know what I’m talking about from this pick but, of course, I also took under for the game (L) and chiefs -3 (L). 

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