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interesting piece on the chiefs from wsj


rangerous

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it's going to be interesting to see how well they do against the patsies.  not that i want the patsies to win but they seem to have KC's number in big games and the weather is playing into their hands.  i just don't see mahommes having great success.

The Kansas City Chiefs Are Football’s Golden State Warriors

The Warriors changed basketball with Stephen Curry and the 3-point line. The Chiefs have Patrick Mnd are exploiting football’s passing boom unlike anyoneThe Kansas City Chiefs became the Golden State Warriors of football. 

By 
Andrew Beaton and 
Michael Salfino
Updated Jan. 18, 2019 2:13 p.m. ET
 

The Golden State Warriors built a dynasty based on a mathematical fact so rudimentary it’s obvious to preschoolers: Three points are more than two. This elementary idea catalyzed a revolution—and the analytics of efficient decision-making overtook NBA strategy.

In the NFL, there isn’t one single inefficiency—like the underuse of a 3-point line far away from the basket—to exploit. So as analytics-driven efficiency boomed in the NBA, the NFL experienced no such upheaval.

Then came 2018. The passing game produced more points than at any point in NFL history, and there was one team at the forefront. The Kansas City Chiefs became the Golden State Warriors of football.

The Chiefs, though, didn’t have one idea that would make their offense one of the best in NFL history and the vanguard of a changing league. Instead, the Chiefs and coach Andy Reid produced the highest-scoring offense in a historic season with a series of smaller innovations.

“He does a great job of taking new ideas, new concepts and utilizing them in a productive and efficient way,” said Bill Belichick, whose Patriots face Kansas City in the AFC Championship on Sunday. “They’re hard to stop.”

But the Warriors didn’t just have a cutting-edge strategy. They also had a transcendent player to lead their offense: Stephen Curry. And the Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes.

Mahomes took an already productive offense to new heights. The Chiefs’ Alex Smith led the NFL in passer rating a year ago, but Mahomes’s arm and athleticism provided opportunities to completely blow open the game.

Individually, none of the Chiefs’ ideas were radical. But together, they created the best offense in the NFL. These are the ideas they exploited to take over the league:

Owning 1st Down—and Avoiding 3rd Down

The smartest thing for any team to do when it gets the ball is to throw the ball immediately. The Chiefs do this more than anyone else.

When their games were tied—the Chiefs passed the ball a league-leading 61.1% of the time on first down, according to Pro-Football-Reference. That’s not just the highest rate in the NFL. It’s 10.6 percentage points higher than the team with arguably the greatest coach of all-time and the same one who will be opposite Reid on Sunday: Belichick.

Here is the Chiefs’ analytical thinking. Teams average 7 yards per pass play on first down, versus 6.6 on second down and 5.4 on third. The big drop-off on 3rd downs in particular—when opposing defenses usually have a higher degree of certainty that the offense might throw the ball—means the best thing any offense can do is avoid reaching that down. The Chiefs had the fewest third-down snaps in the entire NFL.

Even when the Chiefs built an early lead, they didn’t turn conservative and let opponents claw back. They passed 62% of the time on 1st and 2nd downs when they had a lead of seven-to-21 points in the first three quarters—the highest rate in the NFL.

 

Exploit Modern Rules to Break the Game

The NFL has never done more to protect offensive players, especially quarterbacks, and no quarterback has taken advantage of this like Mahomes.

Mahomes has two skills that he combines to make a lethal concoction. He has generational arm strength and the ability to extend plays with his athleticism. Together, they allow the Chiefs to make plays that no other team in the league comes close to matching.

In an era where it seems like a flag is thrown every time a defender touches a quarterback, Mahomes is fearless to bounce around and wait for a big play. When he waits at least four seconds to throw—far above the league target of 2.5 seconds—the Chiefs average a league-high 10 yards per attempt because his ability to throw deep while on the run can take advantage of the entire field. On these same plays, the rest of the league averaged only 6.6 yards. The Chiefs led the NFL with 877 passing yards on these improvisational plays, 200 yards more than the next team, according to Stats LLC.

“He’s definitely a guy that’s able to extend plays,” said Patriots defensive end Trey Flowers, who added that Mahomes isn’t “looking to run but he’s looking to throw the ball down the field.”

This wasn’t the only way the Chiefs took advantage of the rules. They threw the ball aggressively over the middle of the field, averaging a league-high 11.3 air yards per attempt while throwing a higher-than-average percentage of passes there. Teams average significantly more yards per pass over the middle because there is no sideline serving as an extra defender and receivers can no longer be leveled when defenseless without receiving a personal foul penalty.

The result of these schemes: Mahomes was the second player ever to throw for 5,000 yards and at least 50 touchdowns. The Chiefs offense averaged the second-most ever yards per play and scored the third-most points since the NFL went to its 16-game schedule.

Make the Defense Defend Every Player

The Warriors became more impossible to defend than ever with a group of players called “The Death Lineup.” The name came from the fatal proposition they presented: All five players on the court—Curry, Klay Thompson, Andre Iguodala, Draymond Green and Harrison Barnes (who was later replaced by Kevin Durant)—could shoot 3-pointers. It stretched defenses to the extreme.

The Chiefs built their offense on a similar principle. Its best players get open because defenders have to pay attention to every offensive weapon, who are among the fastest at their positions. Receiver Tyreek Hill clocked the fastest 40-yard dash time for a receiver since 2013. Damien Williams ran the fastest 40-yard-dash among running backs at his combine. Tight end Travis Kelce’s combination of size and speed is only comparable to some of the best ever at the position like Chiefs great Tony Gonzalez or his counterpart on Sunday, Rob Gronkowski.

In response, defenses have to either use single coverage on players who need double coverage, or leave somebody else open so they can pay proper attention to Hill and Kelce.

When defenses opted for that latter option Mahomes torched them by throwing to his running backs, averaging 11.2 yards per play on those passes—first in the league and well above the league average of 7.9.

And while the Warriors’ pioneered an idea of positionless basketball, the Chiefs are at the forefront of positionless football. The Chiefs backs were unmatched in efficiency in the receiving game. Hill ranked fourth in the NFL among wide receivers in rushing yards, with fellow receiver Sammy Watkins also in the top-20. Kelce led all tight ends in receiving yards while lined up like a wide receiver in the slot.

But this is Mahomes’s first season playing in the playoffs, and he’s not just facing any other team in the AFC Championship. The Chiefs are going up against the league’s pre-eminent dynasty, one led by a famously successful and curmudgeonly head coach. Golden State once ran into the same problem. The first time the Warriors made the playoffs in the Curry era, they lost—to Gregg Popovich and the San Antonio Spurs.

Write to Andrew Beaton at andrew.beaton@wsj.com

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Obviously personnel is the key, but that paragraph on the odds related to 1st vs. 2nd vs. 3rd down to me was the most interesting.  How many times did we see Bates force a 2nd down run?  How many times was it stuffed leaving Darnold with a 3rd and long where the defense can adjust to put the odds in their favor?

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Fast paced offense? Yes. Dynasty? Slow down bro. 

But I do like the pass first on first down stat. I'll always agree with that, I never understood the love for always running on first down for 2 yards. I'd rather have an incomplete pass then do that. 

I wonder what the average is on 1st down runs.

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1 minute ago, varjet said:

Granted that 10 other teams passed on him as well, but that puts Mac in the bottoms of NFL minds.

It is amazing how far behind the Jets are in their offensive thinking.  They have been pre-historic.  

Dynasty.

They have won 1 playoff game.  I truly hope they win another, but let's not go too overboard yet.

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14 minutes ago, MDL_JET said:

Fast paced offense? Yes. Dynasty? Slow down bro. 

But I do like the pass first on first down stat. I'll always agree with that, I never understood the love for always running on first down for 2 yards. I'd rather have an incomplete pass then do that. 

I wonder what the average is on 1st down runs.

Mahomes is for real, so they have that going for them. And not running up the middle like a scared rabbit every 1st down  should a given. The WCO pretends you can have a 16-play 9 minute drive; that's good in the 4th quarter when you're nursing a lead, but otherwise better to score ASAP. Problem is more plays you run, more chances for something to go wrong. If you get down the field in fewer plays, less chance for something to go awry. 

But "dynasty" is really getting ahead of things. 

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The New England Patriots have had a f*cking horseshoe up their arses for YEARS playing in the playoffs! Many, many win 2 & in scenarios for the Super Bowl because the division has been HORRIBLE for the most part the last 20 years! Then, they Luck out again this year & end up with a Home playoff game because Houston got beat. 

Then, the NFL has the Chargers play not 1 but 2 weeks in a row at the 1:00PM slot, go back into history & see how that works out for West coast teams. Plus, it works out the Pats get the Chargers after outlasting the best DEFENSE in the AFC, but has to AGAIN make a cross country trek, when most West coast teams can't win 1 game heading east & playing early.

Now, here's the Pats playing one of the most explosive teams in the NFL & instead of a fast field, we'll have weather that totally favors the Patriots running game! Ever since the Patriots got that bogus call vs the Raiders it's been nothing but the same incredible luck, year after year! 

Think about this, only 3 plays separate the Patriots from 8 freaking Super Bowls, the Helmet catch, Wes Welker not being 2 inches taller, and the Philly special. 

You watch what happens next, Saints win but lose both Drew Brees & Alvin Kamara to 4th quarter injuries but barely hahg on for a 1 point victory to a game Rams team that remains healthy, Pats run for 300 yards on Sunday & beat KC.

Super Bowl is Patriots vs Saints without Brees & Kamara. 

I swear it wouldn't shock me!

 

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Despite the great team success and smart decision making.  (Moving on from Alex smith in favor of mahommes) the pressure is on Andy Reid.  For all of his success his teams tend to choke and for a long time vet coach he is still one of the very worst time management coaches i have seen.

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30 minutes ago, MDL_JET said:

Fast paced offense? Yes. Dynasty? Slow down bro. 

But I do like the pass first on first down stat. I'll always agree with that, I never understood the love for always running on first down for 2 yards. I'd rather have an incomplete pass then do that. 

I wonder what the average is on 1st down runs.

Per pro football reference, average in the NFL was 4.5 yards per carry on first down.  We averaged 4.0 on 1st down.  Here are our season splits by down -- about 50-50 run pass on first down.  

  Rushing Passing  
Down #Pl ToGo Yds Att Yds Y/A TD 1D Cmp Att Cmp% Yds Y/A TD Int Sk 1D Rate ANY/A  
1st 418 10.28 5.12 207 833 4.0 4 23 118 199 59.3 1308 6.6 6 8 12 57 72.2 5.1 All Jets plays on 1st down
2nd 316 8.47 5.13 144 622 4.3 5 39 101 163 62 999 6.1 4 5 9 47 74.7 5.0 All Jets plays on 2nd down
3rd 214 7.61 4.27 50 135 2.7 1 19 73 148 49.3 778 5.3 8 4 16 52 71.8 4.6 All Jets plays on 3rd down
4th 22 5.64 4.95 8 29 3.6 1 6 7 14 50 80 5.7 0 2 0 5 28.0 -0.7 All Jets plays on 4th down

Would be interesting to see breakdown by down and quarter.  Since we were trailing a lot in the 4th quarter, I assume we passed a higher percentage late and ran a higher percentage early.

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2 minutes ago, Lith said:

Per pro football reference, average in the NFL was 4.5 yards per carry on first down.  We averaged 4.0 on 1st down.  Here are our season splits by down -- about 50-50 run pass on first down.  

  Rushing Passing  
Down #Pl ToGo Yds Att Yds Y/A TD 1D Cmp Att Cmp% Yds Y/A TD Int Sk 1D Rate ANY/A  
1st 418 10.28 5.12 207 833 4.0 4  23 118 199 59.3 1308 6.6 6 8 12 57 72.2 5.1 All Jets plays on 1st down
2nd 316 8.47 5.13 144 622 4.3 5 39 101 163 62 999 6.1 4 5 9 47 74.7 5.0 All Jets plays on 2nd down
3rd 214 7.61 4.27 50 135 2.7 1 19 73 148 49.3 778 5.3 8 4 16 52 71.8 4.6 All Jets plays on 3rd down
4th 22 5.64 4.95 8 29 3.6 1 6 7 14 50 80 5.7 0 2 0 5 28.0 -0.7 All Jets plays on 4th down

 

That also shows the success of passing on first down. 6.6 yds vs 4.0. 57 first downs vs 23! 1300 yards vs 833. 

Simple math. Throw that sucker!

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1 hour ago, MDL_JET said:

Fast paced offense? Yes. Dynasty? Slow down bro. 

But I do like the pass first on first down stat. I'll always agree with that, I never understood the love for always running on first down for 2 yards. I'd rather have an incomplete pass then do that. 

I wonder what the average is on 1st down runs.

League wide its not as bad as our average because most team don't do it on Every single first down, on every single drive, calling ahead of the play to the other teams sideline to tell them we are running it and making a ******* reservation to run on 1st a week before... all ******* season long.

 

My point is everyone one knew we were running because we told everyone.

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1 hour ago, MDL_JET said:

Fast paced offense? Yes. Dynasty? Slow down bro. 

But I do like the pass first on first down stat. I'll always agree with that, I never understood the love for always running on first down for 2 yards. I'd rather have an incomplete pass then do that. 

I wonder what the average is on 1st down runs.

It's a matter of people who think statically versus dynamically. Static people cling onto cliches and the past, they are slow to adapt.

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4 hours ago, varjet said:

Granted that 10 other teams passed on him as well, but that puts Mac in the bottoms of NFL minds.

It is amazing how far behind the Jets are in their offensive thinking.  They have been pre-historic.  

That is a misleading stat.   Of the teams that passed, only 3 needed a QB.  SF, Cleveland and Jets.   Knowing that a QB is key, it is unconscionable to pass on Mahommes or Watson.  But that is why the teams that passed are drafting early.  they have lower management mentality.   But yes... we had Hackenburg in the wings ......   4 years of McCown and FITZ is what we got from MAC and Bowles.  REAL teams don’t do that.  

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