Entirely too early offeseason mock(4 Round Draft/FA)

[Paradis]

6 minutes ago, JiF said:

I feel like this is 2017 all over again.  Everyone is screaming, waiting till next years QB class and someone is going to blow it and miss out on a Mahomes/Watson type whether that's Haskins/Murphy is TBD but there is sooo much buzz about next year and why?  Because of Tua?  Herbert?  Are they even good?  The only QB in college that would make me salivate right now isnt available for another 2 years. 

Good thing is, we're Jets fans and dont have to worry about QB.

That was so weird to type. 

It's a fair point to make, but you're essentially putting Mahomes/Watson up with Murray and Lock? Or Jones? cmon.. you watch college man. Notice i didn't say "abandon" addressing the position because "next year" simply that MIA or WSH throwing the next two drafts into the wind, for these guys? 

No. I just can't brah. 

[JustInFudge]

17 minutes ago, Paradis said:

It's a fair point to make, but you're essentially putting Mahomes/Watson up with Murray and Lock? Or Jones? cmon.. you watch college man. Notice i didn't say "abandon" addressing the position because "next year" simply that MIA or WSH throwing the next two drafts into the wind, for these guys? 

No. I just can't brah. 

You're legit making my point.  Nobody was talking about Mahomes and Watson as the next big things (except for me).  Now you're comparing a class to them using them as the bar.  And just like 2017, while they didnt seem like the worthy prospect leading up the the draft, teams moved up for Watson and Mahomes on draft day.  So, you never know.  I wouldnt personally do it but my point is more about the overall perceptions of this year vs. next and it's eerily similar to 2017 vs. 2018

And it's really not about how they measure up to those 2, it's how they measure up to next year's class.  And I might be in the minority (I was in 2017 too) but I dont see the difference between this year class and next years class being anything worth waiting for.

Good thing it's not a Jets problem, finally.

 

 

 

[Paradis]

12 minutes ago, JiF said:

 Now you're comparing a class to them using them as the bar.  And just like 2017, while they didnt seem like the worthy prospect leading up the the draft, teams moved up for Watson and Mahomes on draft day.  So, you never know.  I wouldnt personally do it but my point is more about the overall perceptions of this year vs. next and it's eerily similar to 2017 vs. 2018

Good thing it's not a Jets problem, finally.

That’s the difference right there my friend. While in 2017 Mahomes and Watson has fans in all corners - I don’t think that’s the case here. I stand by my assessment. This is more akin to 2013 than 2017. 

Agreed. Glad we’re not having those same conversations about what the Jets should do. 

[slats]

54 minutes ago, Paradis said:

Now now, don’t get your vagina in a wrinkle. I said IMO. I left the door open by saying that IF jax fell in love with Haskins and felt he was worth trading up for, then I wouldn’t expect anything in the form 2020 draft capital. 

Bookmark this. If I’m wrong, I will officially STFU with making “entitled” prognostications of this sort 

 

How about you just focus on your own vagina and not worry about Dan's? 

[LES]

1 hour ago, Paradis said:

I know we all WANT to have that scenario play out, but JAX (the ONLY option) trading up with for Haskins?... Tom C is gonna pull the trigger on that?... maybe for a 2nd round pick and a trouble maker. Forget getting any 2020 draft capital IMO

Tom C will go after Foles. It’s a no brainer. He’s not going to be messing with a rookie when that Jax team is a QB away from being a serious contender. He’s old but not senile. 

[varjet]

1 hour ago, LES said:

Tom C will go after Foles. It’s a no brainer. He’s not going to be messing with a rookie when that Jax team is a QB away from being a serious contender. He’s old but not senile. 

Where Foles will go will be all settled before the draft.  Then we can see who may want to trade up.

If there is a Donald type DL available at 3 I am not seeing the issue in picking him, so long as we get rid of Leo and use the money to buy FAs who fit the other needs.  But in that case, a trade down, even if for less than "Draft Chart" value, would appear better.  

FWIW, despite the flaws people see in Jonah Williams game, there is likely not a FA T as good as he is, and the best one would be alot more expensive than Jonah Williams,  

[Paradis]

2 hours ago, slats said:

How about you just focus on your own vagina and not worry about Dan's? 

So many things to say - but I think I’ll just leave it at - I’m not trying to be a dick.  Just talking shop. 

[Sperm Edwards]

On 1/21/2019 at 6:39 PM, Patriot Killa said:

Brandon Shell was already an older 3rd year player and he’s a very average tackle. I’d like to upgrade the position if i’m able to.

fair enough criticism though. Definitely other ways to go about RT and CB.

Truth is no one is going to put forth a perfect mock. This is better than I expect we'll see even if there are parts I'm not on board with (and sometimes devil is in the details, like contract terms). Also takes guts doing this with this crowd, lol.

I'm more in the cut Long group but I can see someone keeping him for another year in case a rookie guard isn't fully ready as a rookie (Winters sure wasn't, and neither were many others). Thing with RT is usually it depends how much. Given the cap scenario and the need for dramatic improvement I'm less concerned than most years. RT is usually good value as a FA pickup; it's among the lowest-priced starting positions. Now is he going to be a $9MM RT (still comparatively high for the position) or is he going to want $13-14MM which I think is excessive for a low-priced position that's routinely filled by mid- and late-round picks.

I know at least half don't like the Bell pickup, and usually I'd be in that crowd, but I like the versatility he brings that most don't. Really depends on the guarantees. If it's 2 years guaranteed (or even 2 years plus a few million) I could stomach that even if he's probably overpaid - it's all about Darnold for me this year - but guaranteeing 3 years is tougher to swallow. Often it's just 1 year but then like on day 1 of year 2 if he's kept then it guarantees a 3rd season. That's a bit much. But I'd eat into some of his huge cap hit by dumping Crowell's $4MM and going with your rookie and the better between McGuire/Cannon (or the best 2 among the 3 if the rookie is unexpectedly terrible). 

Couldn't speak as to your player value because it's just not my area. But just by positions alone I'm very good with them. 

Nice job.

[Sperm Edwards]

23 hours ago, slats said:

I don't make that move without the Jags #1 in 2020. Who are they trading up for? One of the QBs? 

I was thinking that myself, including the idea that we're getting more value than we're surrendering in a draft that doesn't 100% expect to see a must-have QB taken in the top 3.

Typically in that type of trade down we'd get less chart value in return than we gave up. Then again the 2020 2nd round pick isn't worth the same that a 2019 would be worth in trade; it'd be a round lower (230 not 500) so it's pretty even points-wise. If it was a 2020 3rd rounder I think it's more likely, but that's splitting hairs and anyway his plan didn't get specific on which player would be taken with that pick anyway, as it's a year off. But yeah my guess is we get more than chart value if there's competing bids for a QB, otherwise we get less than chart value because the top 3 in that chart are so crazily-valued. 

I kind of let it go, allowing it's more about trading down to around that area than specifically Jax. Maybe it's to #6 maybe it's to #10-11 but @Patriot Killa's general goal/plan here is to move down but not way down in round 1, whether it's with Jacksonville or someone else. Hey, maybe the Jags trade down before that, and someone else is sitting at #7 who wants to trade up even further.

For which player? Hell if I know, lol.

[HelenOfTroy]

On 1/21/2019 at 3:59 PM, BCJet said:

Speed matters if that is your main skill, like Tyreke Hill.  Who even knows what routes he can or can't run, when you are as fast as he is, it doesnt matter.

When I see Burnett, I see a guy who simply makes plays every time he steps on the field.  He did it in college, he did it all preseason (I believe he finished with 11 catches on the Titans), did it when he was given a shot in the regular season and in is only 21 years old.  He is exactly the type of player who should be given as many opportunities as possible in TC and can hopefully stick as a 4/5th WR.  Again, and its the same point I made about Jones and Nickerson, Bowles didnt play him regularly until week 17 and yet we routinely dressed "Special Teams Superstar - who I never saw make a Special Teams play" Charone Peake over him.

Agree.  Tay was an undrafted free agent.....the Jets have squandered more draft picks than any other NFL team the past four years, and some people are complaining about his speed?

He’s been more productive the few times he’s been targeted than players drafted in the second round by the Jets!

 

[Jetster]

8 hours ago, HelenOfTroy said:

Agree.  Tay was an undrafted free agent.....the Jets have squandered more draft picks than any other NFL team the past four years, and some people are complaining about his speed?

He’s been more productive the few times he’s been targeted than players drafted in the second round by the Jets!

 

Why is there this unwritten rule that rookies stink by Jet fans? Burnett is young as sh*t, is in sync with Sam, obviously can get better, has GREAT HANDS and is cheap as hell. Do you guys realize it took Edelman 3 full years B4 he broke out with the Patriots? You don't need Superstars at every position. You need team players, knowing their routes, being in sync with the QB & getting open and catching the ball! Jets need 1 big time WR outside along with signing Bell to open up the offense for Darnold.

[New York Mick]

23 minutes ago, Jetster said:

Why is there this unwritten rule that rookies stink by Jet fans? Burnett is young as sh*t, is in sync with Sam, obviously can get better, has GREAT HANDS and is cheap as hell. Do you guys realize it took Edelman 3 full years B4 he broke out with the Patriots? You don't need Superstars at every position. You need team players, knowing their routes, being in sync with the QB & getting open and catching the ball! Jets need 1 big time WR outside along with signing Bell to open up the offense for Darnold.

But you want Bell. Didn’t that kind of contradict you’re point?

[Chrebetfan80]

18 hours ago, Paradis said:

Yea i hear you. 

If i'm a GM of JAX/NYG/WSH etc, i'm trying to sign Flacco, Bridgewater, and I'll take a chance on a QB in the draft, sure. But i ain't throwing away the currency i may need to move up next year or the year after. Not a chance. 

Yea I completely agree, if macc is able to engineer a trade down, then wowww give the guy props.. Especially if he gets a good haul for it.

 

The only chance this team has of a trade down is that 1. Arizona and San Fran love the top Defensive players and want them and not to trade down, and 2. One of these guys has an absolutely electric pre draft and shoots up boards to the point where a team like Jax or the Giants say "we feel really good about this guy, and we're in striking distance now to make a move and not give up the farm". We'd essentially have to say the giants and jags would weigh the risk reward factor and say a Haskins, murray, or jones is someone they feel strongly about and moving from 6/7 to 3 is more beneficial than next year moving from possibly 10+ to 1 or 2 (assuming both teams make moves that allow them to win 1 to 2 more games).....

 

 Thats really the only way i see it happening, and thats a lot of contingencies.

[Jetster]

1 hour ago, New York Mick said:

But you want Bell. Didn’t that kind of contradict you’re point?

Absolutely not. If you have cheaper players like Burnett, you can sign a top 3 RB like Bell. We have the money for Bell, the guy caught 90 balls once, is a consensus top 3 pick in fantasy for a reason. HELP SAM SUCCEED!

[Philc1]

19 hours ago, varjet said:

I won’t quote the entire brilliant analysis, but nycdan has hit it right on the head.  

Bosa and Haskins are top 2, just like 2 years ago   

Where they leaves us at 3, who knows  

 

[Philc1]

20 hours ago, nycdan said:

The comp I use for Haskins I Trubisky.  One full season as starter.  Haskins had much better stats than Trubisky.  I was surprised Trubisky went as high as he did (and that CHI actually moved up a slot to lock it in) but he was considered the 'best' QB (tough call in retrospect) in that class and CHI absolutely needed to draft a QB.  NYG, JAX and MIA (and probably WAS) should all be locked in on QB.  Foles is a wild card that could take one off the board.  But if you don't move up for Haskins and miss out, you are looking at Murray, who is not going to get any taller by April, or a bunch of guys who aren't nearly as well-regarded as even Watson and Mahomes were in 2016 when CHI moved up for Trubisky.

Recapping - I don't know squat but history suggests to me that someone is going to move up for Haskins as things stand right now, and our pick should be on the table.  Only question is, will ARI or SF want to play as well.

 

I’m hearing Arizona wants to draft Haskins and trade Rosen.

 

I can see the giants trading for Rosen

[UntouchableCrew]

19 hours ago, Paradis said:

I think you guys (that camp of thought) are 100% way off base. 

• Look at the EJ Manuel/Geno draft for similarities in quality of QB talent... look at how that played out. 
• Lamar Jackson is better than every QB prospect in this draft, and he barely went #32
• Nobody with longterm uncertainty is going to take themselves out of the Tua/Lawrence sweepstakes for Haskins. Would you? 
• There's enough Bridgewaters and Flaccos to go around to bandaide a team (even if they draft a Lock, or Murray) and still keep their options open.
• You severely understimate how good/heralded Tua Tagovailoa or Trevor Lawrence are if you think teams aren't looking ahead.

I know we all WANT to have that scenario play out, but JAX (the ONLY option) trading up with for Haskins?... Tom C is gonna pull the trigger on that?... maybe for a 2nd round pick and a trouble maker. Forget getting any 2020 draft capital IMO

You think Lamar Jackson is a better QB prospect than Dwayne Haskins? I don't see it.

Only once since 2001 has a QB not gone in the top 5 (the aforementioned 2013 draft which stunk from top to bottom.)

I think it's more likely than not Haskins goes top 5, regardless of whether he's a top 15 player.

[BettyBoop]

On 1/22/2019 at 1:47 PM, varjet said:

I won’t quote the entire brilliant analysis, but nycdan has hit it right on the head.  

Bosa and Haskins are top 2, just like 2 years ago   

Where they leaves us at 3, who knows  

 

I think Bosa and Haskins being top two is the ideal scenario for the team.  You're then sitting on taking Quinnen Williams or trading back.  Q could be Myles Garrett or better.  Pair him with Leo, Trey Flowers or Grady Jarrett and XXX and you have quite a front four.  Or if teams falls in love with Jones or Murray then trade back for a haul.

None of this makes any sense if you're not going to project free agency.  If Mac signs a combination of Brown and Flowers from the Pats, Grady Jarrett, Anthony Barr, a #2 WR and a center, which is entirely plausible, that's several holes that won't need to be addressed early in the draft.

[Paradis]

7 hours ago, UntouchableCrew said:

You think Lamar Jackson is a better QB prospect than Dwayne Haskins? I don't see it.

Only once since 2001 has a QB not gone in the top 5 (the aforementioned 2013 draft which stunk from top to bottom.)

I think it's more likely than not Haskins goes top 5, regardless of whether he's a top 15 player.

Lamar was an emphatically better college player IMO... i have no idea what NFL teams think about who projects better in the pros. I didn't watch a ton of OSU tbh tho.

OAK is at 4, and in that capacity might hit your statistically mark. I don't think there's a big difference between 2013 and the 2018 class... the point is, expecting a trade up for a QB is, to me, somewhat silly. With this class? And what it would cost for every team not named JAX -- ahhh no. I just can't buy that narrative, as things sit right now. After passing on 3-4 QBs last year, the NYG are not going to eat crow and spend money to trade up IMO. GM poison pill if doesn't work out

7 hours ago, Chrebetfan80 said:

Yea I completely agree, if macc is able to engineer a trade down, then wowww give the guy props.. Especially if he gets a good haul for it.

 

The only chance this team has of a trade down is that 1. Arizona and San Fran love the top Defensive players and want them and not to trade down, and 2. One of these guys has an absolutely electric pre draft and shoots up boards to the point where a team like Jax or the Giants say "we feel really good about this guy, and we're in striking distance now to make a move and not give up the farm". We'd essentially have to say the giants and jags would weigh the risk reward factor and say a Haskins, murray, or jones is someone they feel strongly about and moving from 6/7 to 3 is more beneficial than next year moving from possibly 10+ to 1 or 2 (assuming both teams make moves that allow them to win 1 to 2 more games).....

 Thats really the only way i see it happening, and thats a lot of contingencies.

JAX is the only chance i see. cause at #7, a trade up with #3 (us) could be doable without dipping into too much future draft capital -- but the bigger question is--

Who is JAX right now? 

• Are they a ready to run the tables team?... i don't know anymore
• Do they believe they can "win now" with Murray? 
• Is this a reset year? 

A year ago, they seemed stacked left to right... now there's some corrosion across the roster. Status; unknown. 

[Chrebetfan80]

2 hours ago, Paradis said:

Lamar was an emphatically better college player IMO... i have no idea what NFL teams think about who projects better in the pros. I didn't watch a ton of OSU tbh tho.

OAK is at 4, and in that capacity might hit your statistically mark. I don't think there's a big difference between 2013 and the 2018 class... the point is, expecting a trade up for a QB is, to me, somewhat silly. With this class? And what it would cost for every team not named JAX -- ahhh no. I just can't buy that narrative, as things sit right now. After passing on 3-4 QBs last year, the NYG are not going to eat crow and spend money to trade up IMO. GM poison pill if doesn't work out

JAX is the only chance i see. cause at #7, a trade up with #3 (us) could be doable without dipping into too much future draft capital -- but the bigger question is--

Who is JAX right now? 

• Are they a ready to run the tables team?... i don't know anymore
• Do they believe they can "win now" with Murray? 
• Is this a reset year? 

A year ago, they seemed stacked left to right... now there's some corrosion across the roster. Status; unknown. 

That’s the trouble with predicting this stuff now, FA will tell a lot about our chances just based off where qbs shuffle around... i do agree that Jax is the only really solid option for a trade up at this point.   if I had to make a guess I don’t think the jags want to concede to a reset year. There is still a ton of talent on that team. Defense underperformed, and offense is just a mess. But I could see them looking at it saying “one year removed from the playoffs, we need a qb and some wr and we can make a run” 

the only proof of that opinion I can give you is that bad teams that are generally not successful tend to cling to the success of one season, usually to the detriment of future performance. Hope they’re that stupid, pray we’re that lucky. 

[UntouchableCrew]

17 hours ago, Paradis said:

Lamar was an emphatically better college player IMO... i have no idea what NFL teams think about who projects better in the pros. I didn't watch a ton of OSU tbh tho.

OAK is at 4, and in that capacity might hit your statistically mark. I don't think there's a big difference between 2013 and the 2018 class... the point is, expecting a trade up for a QB is, to me, somewhat silly. With this class? And what it would cost for every team not named JAX -- ahhh no. I just can't buy that narrative, as things sit right now. After passing on 3-4 QBs last year, the NYG are not going to eat crow and spend money to trade up IMO. GM poison pill if doesn't work out

 

Well yeah, but he was a better college QB because of his athleticism and running. Haskins was a vastly superior passer... Haskins numbers were somewhat overshadowed because Tua and Murray put up ongodly stats but Haskins wins the Heisman running away almost any other year.

I'm not guaranteeing someone trades up but I still think somehow someway the first QB of the board will be Haskins and it will be in the top 5.