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derp

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35 minutes ago, bitonti said:

this feels like hope. I'm not like a master of predicting the draft but hoping for the Jets to get lucky is historically the opposite of what happens.

The only thing Haskins going top 2 does for us is it ensures Allen definitely falls to 3

 

Now what would be crazy is if Allen destroyed the combine so much he gets picked ahead of Bosa and Bosa becomes a Jet

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Just now, FidelioJet said:

That is the big fear with me. 

There are some exciting things happening - but, honestly, I'm not sure Mac understands the basic fundamentals of what todays NFL is about.

People said the same thing about Pete Carroll he was fired twice before hitting it big in Seattle

 

And there was no bigger Mac hater than me

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Yes i would make that trade.  I would do my very best to try and at least weasel another late round pick this year or even next nut I would take it.  The 2nd round seems to be shaping up for a decent shot at decent oline or wr, both huge needs.

After Bosa and allen who are we running up to take?  Quinnen williams?  I'll barf.

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2 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

The only thing Haskins going top 2 does for us is it ensures Allen definitely falls to 3

 

Now what would be crazy is if Allen destroyed the combine so much he gets picked ahead of Bosa and Bosa becomes a Jet

Bosa to the Jets seems about right. 

It would probably be because of medicals and the Jets doctors aren't issued any red ink. they have one stamp it only says "PASS" 

Whoever takes Bosa will sell a million jerseys and torture themselves when he spends half a season on IR every other year 

If both Bosa and Allen go 1-2 (worst case?) I can see why everyone hopes for the trade down. Getting to 7 or wherever Denver is picking makes a BPA Offense pick more rational. 

I hope they target Devin Smith in a trade down just cause he's probably special. there are still some special defenders on the board in that scenario Quinnen Williams is probably the BAP regardless of need and people are sleeping on him for whatever reason. the sack list was like have DTs this year and he's supposedly better than Jonathan Allen and other Bama dudes. 

The Jets at 3 should look for an All pro gold jacket instant starter wherever it is other than QB they need that player.

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11 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

Lamar Jackson's relevance is not where he was drafted, but that the Ravens were winning with him. The idea that these spread offense or running QBs can't win early in their NFL careers is out the window. 

 

Vince Young won Rookie of the Year, and (without looking it up) think he went 3 too 

Rose bowl victory as well 

I agree these guys can win early 

the question is what is this player worth 

not sure the hype machine has or will reach Vince Young levels 

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49 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

I asked this in another post you missed or skipped over... Doesn't supply and demand play a role here?  Sure, in a vacuum, Haskins may not be worthy of three.  But, with one QB in a draft, and multiple teams in need, doesn't that change the metric?

Who are the "multiple teams in need".

And why would those teams not prefer/persue the available Veteran QB's, like Foles or Flaco?

Sadly, I don't think demand is going to be that high come draft day 2019.  Not for these prospects, not with materially better QB's available in FA.

And not with so many teams already invested in their "current/future" young QB's at current.

Giants, sure, that's likely, although they could go the Steelers route and use a 2nd and not a first given where they pick.  Redskins, definitely possible because brokelegs.  Jaguars, sure, if the price is right I think.  

Who else is desperate for a QB right now?  Denver?  Anyone else?

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48 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Yep, I can live with that caveat.

It's early, so it's hard to slot guys, but I have to believe that a very very good O-lineman can be had at #7.  I believe winning, for us, starts on the O-line, so I'd even favor drafting two O-linemen if the draft falls that way.  Don't get me wrong, I want weapons (so Darnold has a fair chance, lols) but protecting Darnold is goal #1 of this offseason for me.  We ended 2018 with a poor O-line.  I want to start 2019 with a near-elite level O-line, however it can be done (FA, Draft, beating an existing guy till he stops sucking, etc).

 Weapons can come after (or concurrently).  Starting with a RB we can really put some hard miles on, to take some burden off Darnold, and to make play-action a legit risk to open up the field for Darnold.

Agreed, and have said a number of times, I'd use our cap space on the offensive line.  Shore that up right away, then approach the draft with the idea of developing "the pipeline."  If value is much better at 1 for Oline than Weapinzzz, no problem going that route.

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24 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Who are the "multiple teams in need".

And why would those teams not prefer/persue the available Veteran QB's, like Foles or Flaco?

Sadly, I don't think demand is going to be that high come draft day 2019.  Not for these prospects, not with materially better QB's available in FA.

And not with so many teams already invested in their "current/future" young QB's at current.

Giants, sure, that's likely, although they could go the Steelers route and use a 2nd and not a first given where they pick.  Redskins, definitely possible because brokelegs.  Jaguars, sure, if the price is right I think.  

Who else is desperate for a QB right now?  Denver?  Anyone else?

They had footage of Alex Smith at the Caps game on the news and he looks a looooong way from playing.  He still is on crutches with whatever you call the leg version of a halo - external device to stabilize the leg with pins attached to the leg. I can't imagine the Skins counting on him right now.

alexsmithwizgame.jpg

I think with so many teams changing coaches there will be plenty looking for change and more mid-tier guys hitting the market.  Miami, Denver, Cincinnati

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32 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Who are the "multiple teams in need".

And why would those teams not prefer/persue the available Veteran QB's, like Foles or Flaco?

Sadly, I don't think demand is going to be that high come draft day 2019.  Not for these prospects, not with materially better QB's available in FA.

 And not with so many teams already invested in their "current/future" young QB's at current.

Giants, sure, that's likely, although they could go the Steelers route and use a 2nd and not a first given where they pick.  Redskins, definitely possible because brokelegs.  Jaguars, sure, if the price is right I think.  

 Who else is desperate for a QB right now?  Denver?  Anyone else?

Teams I'd think want a QB are Giants, Jacksonville, Denver, Washington as the big ones.  Then, I think you could see interest from Raiders (who's decisions signal to me that they're not all-in on Carr) and Bucs (Who weren't all-in on Winston, and now you have new leadership) and the Dolphins probably too.

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1 hour ago, Philc1 said:

People said the same thing about Pete Carroll he was fired twice before hitting it big in Seattle

 

And there was no bigger Mac hater than me

Are you comparing Pete Caroll to Mike McCagnan?

Is your argument that Mac doesn't suck as a General Manager because Pete Carol was fired twice as a Head Coach and now he's a good one?

 

 

 

 

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59 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

They had footage of Alex Smith at the Caps game on the news and he looks a looooong way from playing.  He still is on crutches with whatever you call the leg version of a halo - external device to stabilize the leg with pins attached to the leg. I can't imagine the Skins counting on him right now.

alexsmithwizgame.jpg

I think with so many teams changing coaches there will be plenty looking for change and more mid-tier guys hitting the market.  Miami, Denver, Cincinnati

He ain’t coming back that’s his plant leg

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30 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

Are you comparing Pete Caroll to Mike McCagnan?

Is your argument that Mac doesn't suck as a General Manager because Pete Carol was fired twice as a Head Coach and now he's a good one?

 

 

 

 

All I’m saying just because Mac has sucked so far doesn’t mean he can’t get lucky and have a good offseason

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15 hours ago, derp said:

Edit:

For those who say no before FA. Draft goes Bosa, Allen. Jags call. Same offer.

Moves the needle from a solid no to just probably not. And that's only if, after all the pre-draft evaluations, I have the couple guys I'm expecting to take at seven graded close enough to the guy I'm staring at taking at three. 

Mac's job between the start of free agency and the first day of the draft is to put his team in the best possible position for the draft. For the Jets, that means spending on offense. He should target two starting OL and a WR who would be no less than #3 on the depth chart (essentially a starter in today's NFL). A TE and RB who figure to be major contributors (<40% snaps). Grab some additional depth guys, too, particularly a second WR. Make a splash on a pass rusher because it is a huge need. 

Do all that, and then you're not in a position to get fleeced on draft day. You're in a position where you can take your BAP and move on, or in a position to pass on the BAP for a good trade offer. 

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If I were running the Jets and had the third pick, I’d be looking at the QB’s and grading them against what I currently have.

The Titans had the first pick in the draft the year after taking Mariota. They traded down and Goff went 1. The Rams are currently in the Super Bowl and Mariota is meh. 

Just something to consider. 

Having more than one good QB isn’t a bad thing, especially if Bosa and the next top pass rusher were to go 2.

 

edit, I see this was touched on and I didn’t read the thread :)

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7 hours ago, More Cowbell said:

Do you really think there will be so many people willing to trade up? This is a weak draft

Of course. The draft is never weak, simply different. Folks believe that it's weak because it's not a booming QB draft class. That doesnt mean that a teams looking for other positions that are drafting further down in the draft wouldnt mind negotiating to move up. You probably wouldnt be able to bend a team over a barrel for a DE or DT as you could if they were moving up for a QB. 

There are deals to be made if you really want to. 

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6 hours ago, #27TheDominator said:

Thank you, Mr. Parcells.  Now not only can we watch Peyton Manning stay in school, but we can watch HOF LTs Orlando Pace and Walter Jones get taken with our picks while you draft an ILB to play out of position until his rookie deal is up.  Sure seems worth it for Dan Neill, Terry Day, Leon Johnson and Ronnie Dixon.  Bodies!  Depth!  

What are you talking about? 

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6 hours ago, bitonti said:

Parcells traded down from 1.1 passed on Orlando Pace

He traded down again, passing on Walter Jones

He ended up with James Farrior and like 14 picks, the best of which was Jason Ferguson the 7th rounder NT 

The Jets need blue chip talent at every position but QB they should stay at 3 and take the blue chip 

we've seen how multiple trade downs end up 

unless we want to believe Mac knows more about the draft then Tuna? 

See @More Cowbell? On one end you questioned if it's even possible to trade down in a draft that is so week, But then Bitonti comes and compares Parcells trade downs passing on a bunch of OT's, something would be pretty ridiculous to do in this draft since we need OT's. Now I atleast know what @#27TheDominator was referring to as well. 

The bottom line is this. If there is an OT to take at 3 then you do it. You trade down if you're talking defense. All that bluechip talk is for the birds if you're talking about anything that isnt about helping Sam Darnold on the offensive side of the ball. 

There is no way that we pick a defensive player in the 1st and then have to wait until the 3rd round before we decided to try and compliment this QB. You trade down if you can, unless the next Orlando Pace or Walter Jones are there, then you take them at #3. 

 

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12 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

IMO trading down for the sake of trading down is not the way to go.  Exhibit A 1997.

1997 isnt this draft, and im not trading down for the sake of trading down, I would be trading down to accumulate some 2nd round picks as well as pick up some offensive linemen, picks that may be too high at #3 but be more in place with a mid teens/early 20's pick. 

the example of 1997 could be contrary to my philosophy given that we need the next Walter Jones or Orlando Pace. So what Parcell's did is irrelevant from that perspective. 
I probably could show examples of a team trading down and getting it right, but that also wouldnt support my position given that this is a different draft and no one really knows who's going to be great and who will bust. Hindsight doesnt exist when in the moment, and not every trade down is some catastrophe. 

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6 hours ago, bitonti said:

Parcells traded down from 1.1 passed on Orlando Pace

He traded down again, passing on Walter Jones

He ended up with James Farrior and like 14 picks, the best of which was Jason Ferguson the 7th rounder NT 

The Jets need blue chip talent at every position but QB they should stay at 3 and take the blue chip 

we've seen how multiple trade downs end up 

 unless we want to believe Mac knows more about the draft then Tuna? 

Who are the Blue Chip talents of this draft though?

Bosa will likely be gone, and I can't wrap my head around an interior defensive lineman.

Do you take Greedy Williams at 3?  I'm not in love with a DB right now either, but I think it'd be pretty badass to have a CB named Greedy, so I guess that'd be cool.

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All this comparing trading down to Parcells makes no sense. The comparison is being made to make it seem as if you trade down you're missing on sure things. 

Well, Gholston was a sure thing, Leonard Williams was "Literally" called the safest pick in the draft. How's that going? 

Imagine if instead of drafting DB Milliner 9th overall in 2013 we traded down and drafted DB Xavier Rhodes instead? Or what if we did the unthinkable and actually drafted offense and drafted DeAndre Hopkins? What if we Did what im suggesting this year and trade down in order to get the best Olineman/Center in the draft? Imagine instead of drafting Milliner we drafted C Travis Frederick? 

For every Parcells story from 1997 folks can track and find I can show you years worth of drafts where we took "Blue chip players" and it didnt work out yet there were a ton of talent that were blue chip drafted way after our pick...and I dont have to go back 22 years do show you an example. 

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34 minutes ago, Villain The Foe said:

See @More Cowbell? On one end you questioned if it's even possible to trade down in a draft that is so week, But then Bitonti comes and compares Parcells trade downs passing on a bunch of OT's, something would be pretty ridiculous to do in this draft since we need OT's. Now I atleast know what @#27TheDominator was referring to as well. 

The bottom line is this. If there is an OT to take at 3 then you do it. You trade down if you're talking defense. All that bluechip talk is for the birds if you're talking about anything that isnt about helping Sam Darnold on the offensive side of the ball. 

There is no way that we pick a defensive player in the 1st and then have to wait until the 3rd round before we decided to try and compliment this QB. You trade down if you can, unless the next Orlando Pace or Walter Jones are there, then you take them at #3. 

 

If the Jets were able to apply a sizeable portion of their cap space to the offense, such that the OL and weapons were substantially upgraded, I could see the point of drafting a defensive player at 3 if we could not trade down.  

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Just now, Villain The Foe said:

All this comparing trading down to Parcells makes no sense. The comparison is being made to make it seem as if you trade down you're missing on sure things. 

Well, Gholston was a sure thing, Leonard Williams was "Literally" called the safest pick in the draft. How's that going? 

Imagine if instead of drafting DB Milliner 9th overall in 2013 we traded down and drafted DB Xavier Rhodes instead? Or what if we did the unthinkable and actually drafted offense and drafted DeAndre Hopkins? What if we Did what im suggesting this year and trade down in order to get the best Olineman/Center in the draft? Imagine instead of drafting Milliner we drafted C Travis Frederick? 

For every Parcells story from 1997 folks can track and find I can show you years worth of drafts where we took "Blue chip players" and it didnt work out yet there were a ton of talent that were blue chip drafted way after our pick...and I dont have to go back 22 years do show you an example. 

Leonard Williams was a safe pick and he looks like a safe pick.  He is a very  good player and will be in the league a long time.  The point isn't that we shouldn't trade down, but that you have to be sure of what you are passing on when you do.  You can't just yell "We need picks!"  and move down. 5 picks that turn into Brian Winters level players is not worth one Orlando Pace.  When you move down you can't target.  Unfortunately, this GM has shown a very poor ability on guys that weren't targeted.  Doesn't mean we shouldn't trade down, but you have to see who is there.  

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32 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

Who are the Blue Chip talents of this draft though?

Bosa will likely be gone, and I can't wrap my head around an interior defensive lineman.

Do you take Greedy Williams at 3?  I'm not in love with a DB right now either, but I think it'd be pretty badass to have a CB named Greedy, so I guess that'd be cool.

 

Start wrapping. Quinnen Williams, Jeffrey Simmons or even Ed Oliver could be impact players. I know people hate Rashaan Gary for whatever reason but he also has that kind of upside. But they are picking 3 not 7 so they can take who they want. and still a decent chance Bosa or Allen are there 

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5 minutes ago, varjet said:

If the Jets were able to apply a sizeable portion of their cap space to the offense, such that the OL and weapons were substantially upgraded, I could see the point of drafting a defensive player at 3 if we could not trade down.  

The Jets need offensive lineman and really good offensive lineman almost never hit FA. Applying a sizeable portion of your cap space to the offense doesnt mean that you provided adequate talent depending on where you spent that money. 

The Jets need to address the offense because they just drafted a franchise QB. 

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19 hours ago, derp said:

Value at the top of the draft doesn't really seem to match your needs.

At the combine Jacksonville approaches you and says they'd like to move up to in the draft if the value is right but they're not totally committed to the idea and it doesn't need to be up to 3. Offer is their pick at 7 and their second rounder at 38. Value of 3 = 2200, 7+38 = 2020. They won't give anything else and you haven't received a better offer. They need to know before free agency starts. Do you take it?

Edit:

For those who say no before FA. Draft goes Bosa, Allen. Jags call. Same offer.

I would tell the same thing,, we need more and it has to be before FA. Why give away points of picks. Draft is messed up, the pick you dont make ends up being great decision and pick you settle for cause YOUR guy got picked right before you ends up being Nick Mangold. Its too much of a crapshoot not to demand fair value so at least you can feel you have helped your team. If they say no then guy you pick at #3 will be a stud, that is faith you have to have now that Woody out and Chris in. He actually is running team like a football guy and bot a guy worried about PC decisions to make whiners in NYC happy. #ChrisPleaseStayRunningTheShow

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25 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

Leonard Williams was a safe pick and he looks like a safe pick.  He is a very  good player and will be in the league a long time.  The point isn't that we shouldn't trade down, but that you have to be sure of what you are passing on when you do.  You can't just yell "We need picks!"  and move down. 5 picks that turn into Brian Winters level players is not worth one Orlando Pace.  When you move down you can't target.  Unfortunately, this GM has shown a very poor ability on guys that weren't targeted.  Doesn't mean we shouldn't trade down, but you have to see who is there.  

Leonard Williams was a safe pick, for folks not looking to take risk. We could have kept Snacks, a guy who was already on the team. Drafting a very good player is great, but when you're drafting at #6 and you're hearing that he's the safest pick in the draft based being being the best player in the draft at his respective position, that is clearly false. But to ignore that hindsight, the bottomline is it was literally unnecessary to draft him given the talent on the Dline we currently had. 

Also, no one is saying to trade down "just" to trade down because we need picks. We need to trade down because we need talent, and we can get that in the back end of the 1st round as well as the 2nd round....so it works. I dont even know why that has to be said, but then again, Jets draft picks tend to only be valuable before use...so you may be on to something lmao. 

You can target when you move down. You have a big board with a bunch of players on it filling out 7 rounds, or atleast it should. But this is Macc as the GM, so based on our situation we're ****ed. 

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44 minutes ago, Villain The Foe said:

1997 isnt this draft, and im not trading down for the sake of trading down, I would be trading down to accumulate some 2nd round picks as well as pick up some offensive linemen, picks that may be too high at #3 but be more in place with a mid teens/early 20's pick. 

the example of 1997 could be contrary to my philosophy given that we need the next Walter Jones or Orlando Pace. So what Parcell's did is irrelevant from that perspective. 
I probably could show examples of a team trading down and getting it right, but that also wouldnt support my position given that this is a different draft and no one really knows who's going to be great and who will bust. Hindsight doesnt exist when in the moment, and not every trade down is some catastrophe. 

The best trade-down scenarios usually involve a team getting way overpaid for their draft pick, like the Rams getting 3 1s and a 2 from the Redskins in the RGIII trade or the Redskins getting a gift from Mike Ditka for the Ricky Williams pick.  However, I do believe that trading down in the right situation is a great move.  The 'right' situation is where you value a number of guys fairly equally, and you still get one of them with the next pick while acquiring more picks for what is essentially 'free'.  Example - Parcells moving down from 1 to 6 in 1997 made sense because Walter Jones was almost as good as Orlando Pace.  Moving down again was a train wreck.

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14 minutes ago, Villain The Foe said:

Leonard Williams was a safe pick, for folks not looking to take risk. We could have kept Snacks, a guy who was already on the team. Drafting a very good player is great, but when you're drafting at #6 and you're hearing that he's the safest pick in the draft based being being the best player in the draft at his respective position, that is clearly false. But to ignore that hindsight, the bottomline is it was literally unnecessary to draft him given the talent on the Dline we currently had. 

Also, no one is saying to trade down "just" to trade down because we need picks. We need to trade down because we need talent, and we can get that in the back end of the 1st round as well as the 2nd round....so it works. I dont even know what that has to be said, but then again, Jets draft picks tend to only be valuable before use...so you may be on to something lmao. 

You can target when you move down. You have a big board with a bunch of players on it filling out 7 rounds, or atleast it should. But this is Macc as the GM, so based on our situation we're ****ed. 

The post I quoted (shown below) had us trading from 3 to 7 to early teens to 20th.  Not only is that wildly unlikely, it is also, literally,  trading down to trade down.  Why not just go from 3 to 20?  Can't work a good enough deal?  Top C at 20?  You are advocating pure need based drafting.  With yoru philosophy, trading up for Darnold would seem to be a mistake. 

You can't target if you move down.  You can value every player - I would, but you can't target.  Look at this year - we moved up to 3 and the Browns probably took the 5'10" QB we coveted.  In 2012 we thought hat Bruce Irvin and Coples were the same player and "either would be fine."  Belichick told Dimitrioff that Jonathan Baldwin was "the same player" as Julio Jones.  You wan to target a g guy you go get him.  That is why the Chiefs and Texans didn't wait for Mahomes and Watson and the Jets didn't wait for Revis.  During the 2007 draft plenty of people thought we should just wait for Aaron Ross because he was "just as good."  

9 hours ago, Villain The Foe said:

Absolutely. I would then trade out of that 7th spot again into the early teens, and then trade out of that into the 20th position picking up another 2nd and 3rd rounder. 

With the 20th pick I'll pick up the top Center, 2nd round I'll pick up the top G/T and in the 3rd pick up another G/T with a WR. 

Invest in Darnold early and often during his rookie contract. 

 

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