Free Agency Strategy

[BettyBoop]

There are a number of key teams to keep an eye on during free agency.

• Kansas City Chiefs.  Per OTC they are $26.2 mm under the cap.  To free up cap space they only have three guys of significance they can cut; Justin Houston ($14mm), Eric Fischer ($7mm) and Mitch Schwartz ($5.2mm).  Houston is likely to be the guy but if either of the other two shake loose, I would pounce on them.  With the $40mm in space they would have (if Houston is cut) they will need to sign Dee Ford and Mitch Morse.  One of those guys will not be resigned and that's the guy Mac should target. 
• Minnesota Vikings.  Per OTC, the Vikes are only $7.3mm under the cap.  How's that Cousins thing working out for you!  The only guys who could be cut who would make an impact are Trae Waynes ($9mm), Everson Griffen ($10.5) and Adam Thielen ($6.1mm).  Thielen ain't going anywhere.  It's likely Griffen is cut loose so they can sign Sheldon Richardson.  I think Griffen is a perfect veteran this team needs on defense.  I would sign him for two years.  They also will likely have to let Anthony Barr go and I would target him when all of the big-name pass rushers are tagged.  Trae Waynes may be let go given Mike Hughes is waiting in the wings.  He's been up and down but might be worth thinking about.
• Denver Broncos.  Per OTC, the Elways are $37.5mm under the cap BEFORE they got Flacco.  The net result should leave them around $23mm under.  Brandon Marshall will only save them $4.5mm.  That leaves Shaquil Barrett and Shane Ray will be available and should be tier 2 options for Mac.  Unless they can somehow trade Keenum Paradis might have to go.  Morse or Paradis, Paradis or Morse.  One needs to be signed.
• LA Rams.  Per OTC the Goffs are $29.8 UTC.  Unless the Rams can convince Whitworth to not retire that number should go up by $11.5mm in which case, Saffold would likely be resigned.  If not, Saffold could be out there.  Another veteran I would welcome.  It's unlikely Suh would be re-signed and I would consider him especially if Leo is traded (see below).
• Dallas Cowboys.  Per OTC the Cowboys are $46.1mm UTC.  This is the most interesting cap situation.  DeMarcus Murray will either be tagged or signed for $18-20mm per year.  And Zeke and Dak have to be paid big bucks in the near future.  Might La'el Collins ($9.9mm) or Tyron Smith ($15mm) become available?  They have Connor Williams and Cameron Fleming as backups who can step in and save them some space.  If I'm Mac I'm on the phone with Jerry Jones to work a deal.  Leonard Williams straight for either Collins or Smith?

 

[Patriot Killa]

6 minutes ago, BettyBoop said:

they will need to sign Dee Ford and Mitch Morse.  One of those guys will not be resigned and that's the guy Mac should target. 

They’ve already come out and said that Dee Ford is apart of the future. Mitch Morse has a bit of a concussion history and they like their back up. Definitely might be Morse that leaves and all the better considering Paradis is looking like a real possibility to hit the market too. Two solid options is better than one. I’d hate to go all out and lose a sweepstakes for the only impact center on the market.

[Adoni Beast]

Anthony Barr is so underrated. He would be a great signing. He isn’t getting you 15 sacks a year, but he can rush and cover extremely well for a linebacker. He is a true 3 down player. 

We still would need a QB sack specialist better than Barr, in fa or draft, but that shouldn’t preclude us from signing Barr.

[Raideraholic]

2 hours ago, BettyBoop said:

There are a number of key teams to keep an eye on during free agency.

• Kansas City Chiefs.  Per OTC they are $26.2 mm under the cap.  To free up cap space they only have three guys of significance they can cut; Justin Houston ($14mm), Eric Fischer ($7mm) and Mitch Schwartz ($5.2mm).  Houston is likely to be the guy but if either of the other two shake loose, I would pounce on them.  With the $40mm in space they would have (if Houston is cut) they will need to sign Dee Ford and Mitch Morse.  One of those guys will not be resigned and that's the guy Mac should target. 
• Minnesota Vikings.  Per OTC, the Vikes are only $7.3mm under the cap.  How's that Cousins thing working out for you!  The only guys who could be cut who would make an impact are Trae Waynes ($9mm), Everson Griffen ($10.5) and Adam Thielen ($6.1mm).  Thielen ain't going anywhere.  It's likely Griffen is cut loose so they can sign Sheldon Richardson.  I think Griffen is a perfect veteran this team needs on defense.  I would sign him for two years.  They also will likely have to let Anthony Barr go and I would target him when all of the big-name pass rushers are tagged.  Trae Waynes may be let go given Mike Hughes is waiting in the wings.  He's been up and down but might be worth thinking about.
• Denver Broncos.  Per OTC, the Elways are $37.5mm under the cap BEFORE they got Flacco.  The net result should leave them around $23mm under.  Brandon Marshall will only save them $4.5mm.  That leaves Shaquil Barrett and Shane Ray will be available and should be tier 2 options for Mac.  Unless they can somehow trade Keenum Paradis might have to go.  Morse or Paradis, Paradis or Morse.  One needs to be signed.
• LA Rams.  Per OTC the Goffs are $29.8 UTC.  Unless the Rams can convince Whitworth to not retire that number should go up by $11.5mm in which case, Saffold would likely be resigned.  If not, Saffold could be out there.  Another veteran I would welcome.  It's unlikely Suh would be re-signed and I would consider him especially if Leo is traded (see below).
• Dallas Cowboys.  Per OTC the Cowboys are $46.1mm UTC.  This is the most interesting cap situation.  DeMarcus Murray will either be tagged or signed for $18-20mm per year.  And Zeke and Dak have to be paid big bucks in the near future.  Might La'el Collins ($9.9mm) or Tyron Smith ($15mm) become available?  They have Connor Williams and Cameron Fleming as backups who can step in and save them some space.  If I'm Mac I'm on the phone with Jerry Jones to work a deal.  Leonard Williams straight for either Collins or Smith?

 

Another Tidbit on Dallas . Is that  Amari Cooper is going on his fifth year option.   Amari Cooper has the same agent as K Mack .( why the Raiders moved him) .  What that means is you can expect a holdout for Amari Cooper till he gets a longterm deal from the Cowboys.    ( traded a first for him)    

So the Cowboys are going to have to pay him this year.    That's going to have an effect on who they can keep this year too.

[BettyBoop]

1 hour ago, Raideraholic said:

Another Tidbit on Dallas . Is that  Amari Cooper is going on his fifth year option.   Amari Cooper has the same agent as K Mack .( why the Raiders moved him) .  What that means is you can expect a holdout for Amari Cooper till he gets a longterm deal from the Cowboys.    ( traded a first for him)    

So the Cowboys are going to have to pay him this year.    That's going to have an effect on who they can keep this year too.

Great point.  Let's hope he does!  I still think they will find a way to sign Murray.  However, they may try to trade one of the OT to lower their payroll.  I would inquire.  

[Raideraholic]

29 minutes ago, BettyBoop said:

Great point.  Let's hope he does!  I still think they will find a way to sign Murray.  However, they may try to trade one of the OT to lower their payroll.  I would inquire.  

I doubt Cowboys move any of their offense lineman , as they are trying to upgrade that unit .  Some of the free agent defections on the offense line have hurt that offense line effectiveness.     I see the Cowboys investing probably through the draft in upgrading that offense line. ( they want that to be a strength again).  

I see them cutting in other areas than messing with the offense line.

[BettyBoop]

Another team to keep an eye on are the Falcons.  They're $26.7mm UTC.  They will likely let Vic Beasley go to save $12.8mm to go $39.5mm under.  There's no one else of significance to add to that, unless Matt Ryan re-does his deal.  His cap number in 2020 is $31mm!  Signing Grady Jarrett will take up 35% of that and there's not much room to spread it out over 4-5 years.  Thank you Matt!  Or they can let Jarrett walk and hope to get his replacement with the 14th pick.  Or they can free up $7.5mm by trading Sanu to the Jets for a fourth rounder.  Calvin Ridley can more than fill Sanu's shoes.  (That was unintentional).  Lastly, they just won't have the money for Jarrett and Tevin Coleman.  Sign whomever is let go!

[Jetster]

12 hours ago, BettyBoop said:

Another team to keep an eye on are the Falcons.  They're $26.7mm UTC.  They will likely let Vic Beasley go to save $12.8mm to go $39.5mm under.  There's no one else of significance to add to that, unless Matt Ryan re-does his deal.  His cap number in 2020 is $31mm!  Signing Grady Jarrett will take up 35% of that and there's not much room to spread it out over 4-5 years.  Thank you Matt!  Or they can let Jarrett walk and hope to get his replacement with the 14th pick.  Or they can free up $7.5mm by trading Sanu to the Jets for a fourth rounder.  Calvin Ridley can more than fill Sanu's shoes.  (That was unintentional).  Lastly, they just won't have the money for Jarrett and Tevin Coleman.  Sign whomever is let go!

Sanu for a 4th would be a great trade for the Jets, in fact, they could probably only offer a 5th first. 

[Philc1]

5 hours ago, Jetster said:

Sanu for a 4th would be a great trade for the Jets, in fact, they could probably only offer a 5th first. 

I’d take Sanu.  Decent move the chains wr.  I don’t trust Enunwa to ever play 16 games in a season so we need another receiver in addition to a slot

[joewilly12]

LB ANTHONY BARR

Anthony Barr played this past season on his $12 million fifth year option and reports have indicated that he would be looking for a contract somewhere in that range. Minnesota has seen life with and without Barr at various points due to injury in 2018 and the defense really has not been all that affected by his absence. Of course, there's been a bit of dropoff with him not in the lineup, but with all of the other contracts they have handed out, it seems as if they can find a player of Barr's production at a cheaper price. Still, he is seen as a core player and it would not be a surprise to see him back.

 

[BCJet]

18 hours ago, BettyBoop said:

Another team to keep an eye on are the Falcons.  They're $26.7mm UTC.  They will likely let Vic Beasley go to save $12.8mm to go $39.5mm under.  There's no one else of significance to add to that, unless Matt Ryan re-does his deal.  His cap number in 2020 is $31mm!  Signing Grady Jarrett will take up 35% of that and there's not much room to spread it out over 4-5 years.  Thank you Matt!  Or they can let Jarrett walk and hope to get his replacement with the 14th pick.  Or they can free up $7.5mm by trading Sanu to the Jets for a fourth rounder.  Calvin Ridley can more than fill Sanu's shoes.  (That was unintentional).  Lastly, they just won't have the money for Jarrett and Tevin Coleman.  Sign whomever is let go!

Where have you seen that they are going to let Beasley go?  They picked up his 5th year option last year?

They do have cap issues and it would be a huge get if the Jets were able to sign Grady Jarret - he's an excellent player.

[BettyBoop]

2 hours ago, BCJet said:

Where have you seen that they are going to let Beasley go?  They picked up his 5th year option last year?

They do have cap issues and it would be a huge get if the Jets were able to sign Grady Jarret - he's an excellent player.

I thought I read that recently.  The reality is they will need to release him if they hope to sign Jarrett.  I would take either one.  Beasley isn't the same guy he was a few years ago when he racked up 15.5 sacks.  I'm guessing if they had to pick one to re-sign it would be Jarrett.  Keeping both would leave them with about $12-15mm under the cap.

[JohnnyLV]

It's like we never learn.  The big name Free Agents are almost never worth it. They in my view are about as risky as draft picks and come at sometimes huge opportunity cost., Outside of the rare offensive lineman I would almost never sign a Day 0, Day 1 or Day 2 FA. Just not worth it,. They are free agents for the most part that their former teams do not want them, or think they will be stronger or not worse with their salary spent elsewhere often for multiple players. Free agency should be for value and depth not trying to get big name guys on 3rd contracts. Just do not see the value.  Everything should be done to maximize draft value and work to always have compensatory picks. That coupled with a franchise guy is how you build championships.

And we have the franchise guy. Everything about the next 2 years should be about Sam Darnold. Our priorities should be:

1. Protect Sam

2. Give Sam weapons

3. Build draft equity ( We must trade down)

4. Build offensive depth especially offensive line

5. Worry about the defense. ( We should not even consider high dollars and opportunity cost chasing an edge rusher)

6. If we can build depth, get compensatory picks and be viewed as "losing" free agency for the next 2-3 years we will be on the right path

No to every defensive high dollar free agent.

 

[BettyBoop]

It really depends on what you mean by Big Name Free Agents.  If you're talking about DeMarcus Lawrence, Javeon Clowney or Le'Veon Bell then I agree with you.  However, if it's guys like Grady Jarrett, Anthony Barr, Mitch Morse or Matt Paradis, then I don't agree.  If Jarrett or Trey Flowers are free agents they will be "day 1 or day 2" signing because several teams will be interested.  Same with Paradis and probably Morse.  I believe Avery Williamson was signed very quickly and he was a great addition.

It also depends on how their contracts are structured.  If they pay big money but can get out of the contract after two years, it's worth a shot.

[nyjbuddy]

One team that the Jets should be watching is the Jacksonville Jaguars.  They have no cap space which means they will be dumping a few players.  Malik Jackson, Marcell Dareus, Carlos Hyde, Barry Church are a few that they may cut.  Not really targets for the Jets but if they are able to free up enough cap space to sign Foles (reunite with DeFilippo), it may put a damper on the Jaguars as a trade back partner that many have mentioned on this site.  They would probably stay at 7 to draft a Jackson/Fowler replacement and maybe trade into the late 1st round to snag a QB if one were to fall.

[BornJetsFan1983]

1 hour ago, johnnysd said:

It's like we never learn.  The big name Free Agents are almost never worth it. They in my view are about as risky as draft picks and come at sometimes huge opportunity cost., Outside of the rare offensive lineman I would almost never sign a Day 0, Day 1 or Day 2 FA. Just not worth it,. They are free agents for the most part that their former teams do not want them, or think they will be stronger or not worse with their salary spent elsewhere often for multiple players. Free agency should be for value and depth not trying to get big name guys on 3rd contracts. Just do not see the value.  Everything should be done to maximize draft value and work to always have compensatory picks. That coupled with a franchise guy is how you build championships.

And we have the franchise guy. Everything about the next 2 years should be about Sam Darnold. Our priorities should be:

1. Protect Sam

2. Give Sam weapons

3. Build draft equity ( We must trade down)

4. Build offensive depth especially offensive line

5. Worry about the defense. ( We should not even consider high dollars and opportunity cost chasing an edge rusher)

6. If we can build depth, get compensatory picks and be viewed as "losing" free agency for the next 2-3 years we will be on the right path

No to every defensive high dollar free agent.

 

So protect Sam by signing ol help in FA. Duh

[MichaelScott]

Do you mean DeMarcus Lawrence? 

[Jet_Engine1]

7 minutes ago, MichaelScott said:

Do you mean DeMarcus Lawrence? 

Maccagnan will probably sign Martin Lawrence.

[BCJet]

4 hours ago, johnnysd said:

It's like we never learn.  The big name Free Agents are almost never worth it. They in my view are about as risky as draft picks and come at sometimes huge opportunity cost., Outside of the rare offensive lineman I would almost never sign a Day 0, Day 1 or Day 2 FA. Just not worth it,. They are free agents for the most part that their former teams do not want them, or think they will be stronger or not worse with their salary spent elsewhere often for multiple players. Free agency should be for value and depth not trying to get big name guys on 3rd contracts. Just do not see the value.  Everything should be done to maximize draft value and work to always have compensatory picks. That coupled with a franchise guy is how you build championships.

And we have the franchise guy. Everything about the next 2 years should be about Sam Darnold. Our priorities should be:

1. Protect Sam

2. Give Sam weapons

3. Build draft equity ( We must trade down)

4. Build offensive depth especially offensive line

5. Worry about the defense. ( We should not even consider high dollars and opportunity cost chasing an edge rusher)

6. If we can build depth, get compensatory picks and be viewed as "losing" free agency for the next 2-3 years we will be on the right path

No to every defensive high dollar free agent.

 

Free agency has changed, and one thing that Mac did well was to target FAs who were 26 or younger.  Those players are playing for another contract, which keeps them motivated.  

If you give a 28/29 year old player a 5 year deal they have zero motivation to outperform their contract.

"Overpaying" a guy like dante fowler may or  may not work out, but your chances are greatly increased because he will be playing for another contract or at least a 4th season on the franchise tag

[Jetster]

I think the Bears are happy they traded for Khalil Mack & paid him. It's not always bad, and they not only paid him like a free agent but also gave up high draft picks for him. I have no problem with the Jets targeting Lawrence or Clowney. 

We have the money, this isn't signing an old Leonard Marshall. 

[BettyBoop]

Now let's take a look at the Miami (ex) Gase's.  They are in terrible cap shape with only $10.2mm UTC.  Thank you Mr. Tannenbaum!  They want to move on from Tannehill but that will be costly.  Good luck trading that contract ($26.6mm cap hit!) and a $13.4mm dead money hit if they cut him.  Disaster!  Potential cuts include Robert Quinn ($12.9mm savings), Devonte Parker ($9.4mm), and Danny Amendola ($6mm).  Quinn might be an interesting signing.  He's only 28 and had 6.5 sacks.  He might be a nice consolation prize if the big name guys aren't signed.  I have no idea what Gase thought about Parker.  He has good size and is young.  His disappointing career might mean a "one year prove-it deal" makes sense for a guy like him.  Truth is we're not likely to get to get our star WR this year and he could be a decent carry over guy.  Amendola?  He's 33 but had a good year.  He would likely be even better with Sam as his QB.  Might be the veteran guy they need for one year.

[NYs Stepchild]

We don't want to sign any good players on this team. Scrubs and hasbeens only.

Let's go back in time and draft better players instead. 

 

 

[Philc1]

6 hours ago, BettyBoop said:

Now let's take a look at the Miami (ex) Gase's.  They are in terrible cap shape with only $10.2mm UTC.  Thank you Mr. Tannenbaum!  They want to move on from Tannehill but that will be costly.  Good luck trading that contract ($26.6mm cap hit!) and a $13.4mm dead money hit if they cut him.  Disaster!  Potential cuts include Robert Quinn ($12.9mm savings), Devonte Parker ($9.4mm), and Danny Amendola ($6mm).  Quinn might be an interesting signing.  He's only 28 and had 6.5 sacks.  He might be a nice consolation prize if the big name guys aren't signed.  I have no idea what Gase thought about Parker.  He has good size and is young.  His disappointing career might mean a "one year prove-it deal" makes sense for a guy like him.  Truth is we're not likely to get to get our star WR this year and he could be a decent carry over guy.  Amendola?  He's 33 but had a good year.  He would likely be even better with Sam as his QB.  Might be the veteran guy they need for one year.

Amendola on a cheap one year deal to be our slot receiver if we can’t get Beasley or Humphries

[BettyBoop]

Next up....the G-Men!

Gettleman is currently $23.8mm under the cap.  Taking a closer look, their top six cap spenders (Manning, OBJ, Olivier Vernon, Solder, Janoris Jenkins, and Alex Ogletree) account for 63% of their cap, and I wouldn't want any of them, except perhaps Vernon.  Unless they do something drastic like trade up for Dwayne Haskins and cut Eli, (which would only save $17mm) they don't have much leverage.  The only guy to keep an eye on here is Vernon.  He won't get anywhere near his $15.5mm contract.  He did have seven sacks in 11 games so maybe worth a shot.

[Ohio State NY Jets fan]

 

On 2/16/2019 at 4:36 PM, Raideraholic said:

Another Tidbit on Dallas . Is that  Amari Cooper is going on his fifth year option.   Amari Cooper has the same agent as K Mack .( why the Raiders moved him) .  What that means is you can expect a holdout for Amari Cooper till he gets a longterm deal from the Cowboys.    ( traded a first for him)    

So the Cowboys are going to have to pay him this year.    That's going to have an effect on who they can keep this year too.

Does Dallas also have to sign Dak this year, he is still on a rookie contract, 4th round pick?