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Thoughts on Jonah Williams with #3 overall?


Jet Life Stadium

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I know that the consensus is that the Jets will trade down- and I'm all for that!  But given the rumors that the Jags will sign Foles, that AZ will draft Murray at #1 (meaning another QB needy team trades for Rosen), the number of potential suitors willing to pay up would seem to be dwindling.  If the Jets can't get a good return to trade down, what do you guys think of taking Jonah Williams or another top OT with the pick?  I think that Allen and Bosa are great talents- but the Jets will hopefully address Edge in free agency with many great options available.  There are very few OT options and none of them are first class.  Thoughts?

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Jonah is not even the consensus top lineman in the draft. There are many NFL people who think he's a Guard not a tackle. I don't think you can pick a lineman at #3 unless he's a no brainer pro bowl player. There aren't any of those types of guys this year. The majority of talent is bunched in the 2nd-3rd round. I'd stay away from offensive line till the 2nd (If we can trade back and get a 2nd) or 3rd. And at that point I'm looking at the Guards not tackles. It seems like mid round guards have a much higher hit rate than mid round Tackles. The tackles tend to be projects at that point in the draft where as 2nd-4th round guards seem to be able to transition pretty quickly. Unless you draft a project like Vlad.

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Slightly above average is how some would describe Beachum. With the #3 pick I want a top 10 tackle for the next 10 years like Brick. Otherwise we'd be looking to replace that slightly above average tackle after 3-4 years. 

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3 minutes ago, nico002 said:

Are you OK with a 10 year slightly above average starter at #3 overall? 

Whether it's Jonah or another OT, I think that giving Darnold protection has to be a top priority- even if it means passing on other positional talent that is superior but less of a need.   Again, we can shore up Edge in Free Agency, but we can't shore up the O-Line in free agency.  Frankly, I'm not comfortable waiting for the 3rd and hoping that guys fall into our lap.  Hope is not a strategy.  Ideally, we find a trade partner, even it means getting just a 2nd round + a midround 1st in exchange for our #1- but if that doesn't happen, I view drafting the OL here as the best option.

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1 minute ago, Jet Life Stadium said:

Whether it's Jonah or another OT, I think that giving Darnold protection has to be a top priority- even if it means passing on other positional talent that is superior but less of a need.   Again, we can shore up Edge in Free Agency, but we can't shore up the O-Line in free agency.  Frankly, I'm not comfortable waiting for the 3rd and hoping that guys fall into our lap.  Hope is not a strategy.  Ideally, we find a trade partner, even it means getting just a 2nd round + a midround 1st in exchange for our #1- but if that doesn't happen, I view drafting the OL here as the best option.

Add Saffold & Paradis or Morse and you've just shored up the line. There is no need to reach for a LT in a not so great tackle class when you can keep Beachum and get the same production. If the Jets drop to the middle of the first I wouldn't be against it. But at #3 you shouldn't be reaching for anybody bc of need.

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1 minute ago, choon328 said:

Add Saffold & Paradis or Morse and you've just shored up the line. There is no need to reach for a LT in a not so great tackle class when you can keep Beachum and get the same production. If the Jets drop to the middle of the first I wouldn't be against it. But at #3 you shouldn't be reaching for anybody bc of need.

Those 3 guys are going to be pursued by a lot of teams, and there aren't secondary options in FA like EDGE and CB.  You can't compare the quality of FA Defense like Clowney, Callahan, Nelson, Clark and Jarrett with Saffold.  Saffold is also 31 years old.  

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I also think the perspective on Williams is going to change a little when the Jets spend decent money on the OL this offseason. Looking at draft needs before free agency is always messy. The most Maccagnan way to do this is to clean up interior OL and draft a tackle day 2 who competes with Shell this year and takes over for Beachum next year.

Anyway, I think he probably lands somewhere in the 8-14 range on draft day. The defensive prospects are just better at comparably important positions. Quarterbacks will get pushed up. And there are some questions about his ultimate position. I think it's earlier than where he'd go if he's just a straight guard since he certainly could be a tackle but I think at guard he'd be really good and worth taking in the teens.

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17 minutes ago, Jet Life Stadium said:

Whether it's Jonah or another OT, I think that giving Darnold protection has to be a top priority- even if it means passing on other positional talent that is superior but less of a need.   Again, we can shore up Edge in Free Agency, but we can't shore up the O-Line in free agency.  Frankly, I'm not comfortable waiting for the 3rd and hoping that guys fall into our lap.  Hope is not a strategy.  Ideally, we find a trade partner, even it means getting just a 2nd round + a midround 1st in exchange for our #1- but if that doesn't happen, I view drafting the OL here as the best option.

You can't have two guys that can get to the quarterback now? F'in Rules Committee. 

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4 minutes ago, Jet Life Stadium said:

Those 3 guys are going to be pursued by a lot of teams, and there aren't secondary options in FA like EDGE and CB.  You can't compare the quality of FA Defense like Clowney, Callahan, Nelson, Clark and Jarrett with Saffold.  Saffold is also 31 years old.  

The Jets have a lot of money to spend. If they're going to overspend it should be on 2 of the lineman.

Clowney will not make it to FA.

Saffold was a top 3 LG in the NFL last year. He was better at his position than any of the guys you mentioned at their position including Clowney. 31 years old is not old for a Guard. You're basically looking for 3 years out similar production out of him on whatever contract they offer. Rebuilding the offensive line in FA needs to be the #1 priority. 

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I thought the point  of the draft was to try to get a better player than is projected at a certain slot, not drafting one than is lesser than.  The same people who constantly complain about over drafting  a safety at #6, now propose to draft a offensive tackle/guard three spots higher. 

If Mike Maccagnan said this in an interview, people would be calling for his head. Overspending on a specific player in free agency is one thing.  Turning the #3 overall pick into the #12 without compensation is just plain dumb.      

Go get your center and left side guard in free agency if you have to,  take the BPA at the #3 and call it a day.  Left Tackle is too important a position to try to fit a square peg in a round hole.  Use the pick to fill another "hole" if you have to.  Take your pick.  We have many.

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34 minutes ago, RSJ said:

Not with the pass rushers that will be available at 3. No way you take an average lineman.


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This.  I can appreciate the need and importance of drafting o-linemen, but no way are you taking one with the third pick in this draft.  The value is just not there.  As much as it sucks to have to go defense in round 1 again, that's where the stud prospects are in this draft and it also happens to be a very big position of need for this team.

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53 minutes ago, nico002 said:

Are you OK with a 10 year slightly above average starter at #3 overall? 

I'm fine with it. Rather trade down a few spots, pick up extra draft ammo, and grab J Williams at say #6 or #7.

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53 minutes ago, Sarge4Tide said:

As a Tide fan, I'd be happy to see it, but the value of 1 of the "Big 3" defensive players (Bosa, Q Williams, Allen) is just too great, I think.  I'd rather see us go there or trade down

Totally agree. I love JW but not worth the #3 pick. Roll Tide !

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48 minutes ago, nico002 said:

Are you OK with a 10 year slightly above average starter at #3 overall? 

Would you be ok with the next D'brickashaw Ferguson? Ferguson was never elite. Always above average. That's about what Williams reminds me of. 

And yes, I would be OK with that. 

With that said, Bosa/Williams are far better prospects and significantly more impactful than the second coming of D'Brick. 

It's never as simply as, do you like this player or not. It's about the value at the given draft position. If we had the 9th pick, I would be hoping Jonah fell to us. At 3, I am not touching him. That's what many posters don't grasp. They fall in love with a player or a position and demand we take offense at 3 or Metcalf at 3 or Jonah at 3 not realizing that you can get that player or a similar player later in the draft (if you trade back). 

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1 minute ago, ChuckkieB said:

I would rather take the best OL in the draft at #3 (whoever it is) than take a defensive player. The defense can be addressed in free agency.  The top draft priority should be keeping Darnold upright and getting him some weapons IMO.

How well we do in FA filling holes will go a long ways in deciding what we do at #3.

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5 minutes ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

Would you be ok with the next D'brickashaw Ferguson? Ferguson was never elite. Always above average. That's about what Williams reminds me of. 

And yes, I would be OK with that. 

With that said, Bosa/Williams are far better prospects and significantly more impactful than the second coming of D'Brick. 

It's never as simply as, do you like this player or not. It's about the value at the given draft position. If we had the 9th pick, I would be hoping Jonah fell to us. At 3, I am not touching him. That's what many posters don't grasp. They fall in love with a player or a position and demand we take offense at 3 or Metcalf at 3 or Jonah at 3 not realizing that you can get that player or a similar player later in the draft (if you trade back). 

Brick was a top 10 tackle for at least half a decade. Also when drafted he has elite athletic traits that put his ceiling much higher than Williams. Another way to put it- Brick is Jonah’s ceiling.

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3 minutes ago, Thai Jet said:

How well we do in FA filling holes will go a long ways in deciding what we do at #3.

Absolutely true.  I just think Mac will focus on defense in FA which will hopefully leave him some interesting trade down options come draft day.  

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4 minutes ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

Would you be ok with the next D'brickashaw Ferguson? Ferguson was never elite. Always above average. That's about what Williams reminds me of. 

And yes, I would be OK with that. 

With that said, Bosa/Williams are far better prospects and significantly more impactful than the second coming of D'Brick. 

It's never as simply as, do you like this player or not. It's about the value at the given draft position. If we had the 9th pick, I would be hoping Jonah fell to us. At 3, I am not touching him. That's what many posters don't grasp. They fall in love with a player or a position and demand we take offense at 3 or Metcalf at 3 or Jonah at 3 not realizing that you can get that player or a similar player later in the draft (if you trade back). 

I have come to disagree with the pure value theory.  Draft ratings and rankings on players are very subjective and also the positions they play should and do factor into things.  Two NYJ 1st round draft picks in recent years, williams and Adams, were both considered the BAP when the jets took them.  With a few years of nfl play we’re seeing that williams is a jag and Adams is a very good player.  Yet as good as Adams is, how much does he really impact a game?  Clearly the jets would have been better of with a guy like Kamara than a box safety who doesn’t get many sacks or turnovers, right?

Beyond pure draft value, you have to project what this player will provide both in terms of his own play and how he’ll make guys around him better.  It’s not a slam dunk that q williams is such a better prospect - and will be more impactful for the jets - than the best OL the jets could draft.  If the game is mostly about offense and protecting your franchise qb, the OL may matter more regardless of empirical draft rankings.  

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I wish John Dorsey was our GM. Pick the guy you want and go get him. Be so confident you got the right guy that you just laugh when the pundits say "well... they could've gotten him a few spots back..." We all know Macc goes by consensus in the top half of the first round so he'll probably trade down since that's what ESPN says he should do.

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6 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

I have come to disagree with the pure value theory.  Draft ratings and rankings on players are very subjective and also the positions they play should and do factor into things.  Two NYJ 1st round draft picks in recent years, williams and Adams, were both considered the BAP when the jets took them.  With a few years of nfl play we’re seeing that williams is a jag and Adams is a very good player.  Yet as good as Adams is, how much does he really impact a game?  Clearly the jets would have been better of with a guy like Kamara than a box safety who doesn’t get many sacks or turnovers, right?

Beyond pure draft value, you have to project what this player will provide both in terms of his own play and how he’ll make guys around him better.  It’s not a slam dunk that q williams is such a better prospect - and will be more impactful for the jets - than the best OL the jets could draft.  If the game is mostly about offense and protecting your franchise qb, the OL may matter more regardless of empirical draft rankings.  

Actually it is a slam dunk that Q Williams is a better prospect. I am sure every scout would agree. Who will be the better player? Tom Brady turned out to be the best QB so you obviously never know. But you can't draft players like that or else you could justify taking anyone a 3 because, well, you never know. 

But if  you have Q Williams as your #1 player overall and you have Jonah Williams at 15, you can't take Jonah because the "NFL is all about offense." 

What if the Jets have 3-4 OT ranked around the same as Jonah. Why not trade down, and take one of those OT at 15. 

And if you can't trade down, you can address Oline via free agency. 

Drafting should be a game of math, not a game of feelings. Especially at the top of the draft. 

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1 minute ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

Actually it is a slam dunk that Q Williams is a better prospect. I am sure every scout would agree. Who will be the better player? Tom Brady turned out to be the best QB so you obviously never know. But you can't draft players like that or else you could justify taking anyone a 3 because, well, you never know. 

But if  you have Q Williams as your #1 player overall and you have Jonah Williams at 15, you can't take Jonah because the "NFL is all about offense." 

What if the Jets have 3-4 OT ranked around the same as Jonah. Why not trade down, and take one of those OT at 15. 

And if you can't trade down, you can address Oline via free agency. 

Drafting should be a game of math, not a game of feelings. Especially at the top of the draft. 

It should not be about pure math.  Grading players to decimal points has a degree of subjectivity, and mccagnan’s pure math approach has proven flawed to an extent high up in the draft as well.  Need and positional value should also play a role.  

 

Maybe Jonah williams is 8, and q is 3.  It will vary by board.  Maybe there are other OL who will be ranked in the top 8 on some boards.  

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36 minutes ago, ChuckkieB said:

I would rather take the best OL in the draft at #3 (whoever it is) than take a defensive player. The defense can be addressed in free agency.  The top draft priority should be keeping Darnold upright and getting him some weapons IMO.

The top off-season priority should be protecting Darnold.

 

GM 101:

You look at free agency and try to predict who will be available at positions of need. Then you look at the draft and figure out the positions of strength and weakness of the draft. That way you can prioritize positions or a side of the ball in free agency that may be weak in the draft. Doing this also helps you decide which players to Re-sign or release. For example, Left Tackle is not a great position as far as depth in the draft. That's why Beachum won't be released.

Every decision in the off-season has to be made with FA and the draft in mind. That's why I think you'll see the Jets go heavy on offense in FA with some smaller deals on defense and heavy on defense early in the draft.

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