Debate - Bell vs Coleman

[JustInFudge]

2 minutes ago, Stark said:

I am with you JiF, but this is the wildcard.   ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Yeah, I doubt we even sign him.  It's like the Kirk Cousins debate all over again. Lots of wasted debates. ha

[RedBeardedSavage]

10 minutes ago, JiF said:

I'm a staunch believer in not giving RB's 2nd contract.  In almost every single case, like Coleman for example, I'd say hell to the no.  However, Bell is different and the Jets situation is unique.  I really dont think you can put a value on what Bell can do for Darnold's development in Gase's system.  They're just not in a situation where they can turn down a talent like Bell IMO.

This is the key.  It’s not about Bell bringing us glory.  It’s not about whether, generally speaking, giving a second contract to a RB is wise. 

It’s about Darnold.  We get Bell and Darnolds odds of becoming an elite franchise quarterback increase.  

Coleman doesn’t move the needle.  

[CTJetsFan]

19 minutes ago, Stark said:

Brady and Belichick, no one saw that coming. Unfortunately that's a thing no one has figured out. 

I can agree with the last part in premise. We've been trying to land any good player, let alone a 2nd or 3rd rounder that turns into a freaking stud and one of the better players at the position. Say we "landed" Hunt when he was in the draft, well we'd be missing him now and searching again. 

Signing Bell is not trying to hit a home run, it's not hitting a pop up to the infield with runners in scoring position. IMO

 

The one variable with Bell I haven't brought up in my argument against signing him to big $ (besides his weed history) is: will he be the same player once he gets his big contract? While I don't know, his history makes me doubt it.

IF we hit on a RB in the 2nd or 3rd round, we have him on the cheap for 3-4 years and chances are the guy will play hard to get his 1st big contract. Kind of like leasing a car: cheaper because you just pay for the depreciation during peak years lol

Also - rookie RBs seem to be able to make a bigger impact earlier (as a rookie) vs some other positions.

The more I think about it, even though we've drafted 2 the last 2 year (McGuire & Cannon), I'd take another shot at it a little earlier (if I were GM)

[Smashmouth]

43 minutes ago, CTJetsFan said:

Lots of good points made. Thanks for the replies.

Is Bell a better RB than Coleman at this point? Yes

Will signing Coleman significantly move the needle for our offense? Probably not.

Are there a lot of RBs with similar production to Coleman (JAGs)? Yes

Would signing Bell improve our offense? Yes

With that being said, it got me thinking about the RB position and its value in general.

A lot of HOF RBs in my lifetime (ex. OJ, Dickerson, Sanders, LT, etc) never got to a Super Bowl, or got there and didn't win (ex. Martin).

A lot of great RBs and possibly future HOFers (AP, Zeke, Gore) haven't either.

Barkley had an amazing season for the Giants last year and was on a team with Beckham Jr. and they still are drafting 6th.

Bell - for all of his greatness and playing in a high powered offense with a potential HOF QB and WR hasn't been able to carry his team to a SB.

On the other hand, the Pats have won 6 SBs and I can't think of one HOF or possible HOF RB on any of those teams (Corey Dillon being the highest in career yardage).

I guess I just don't value RBs or the RB position as much as others. I'm on board with using an early pick (2nd round w/tradedown or a 3rd) on trying to land the next Kamara or Hunt. IMO, I'd rather see us spread the cap $ to improve more positions vs trying to hit a home run on 1.

 

Marshall Faulk 

I think you can make the argument that without him the Rams never win that SB or even get to it.

Walter Payton

As great as the Bears defense was you can make the argument Walter Paytons 2000 + yards from scrimmage and 1500 + yards rushing made Jim Mcmahon and that offense tick. Do the Bears win that SB without Payton ?

Emmitt Smith 

Do the Cowboys win 3 SB's without him ?

Matt Snell

Do the Jets win SB 3 without Matt Snell ramming the ball down the Colts throats 

Franco Harris

Do the Steelers win 4 SB's in 5 years without Franco Harris

Thurman Thomas

Do the Bills go to 4 SB's in a row without him ?

49ers in the 80's always had a dynamic RB as the focal point of the west coast Offense and they won 4 SB's doing it with all those back's having huge numbers in the passing game.

John Riggins at 34 years old basically destroying the Dolphins in the year of the Mud Bowl.

No matter how you slice it the Patriots always seem to get great play out of their RB's during all their playoff runs. Sure they do it differently and they have an amazing offensive system but they always get big games out of running back when they need it in the playoffs

I know I'm missing some backs that had major contributions over the years in the playoffs and getting to the playoffs for many teams so getting the chance to add a dynamic RB can turn an offense around very quickly and the effect they will have on a young QB is easily the best way to take pressure off.

[rammagen]

3 hours ago, Stark said:

Smarter? because he will cost less. In that sense then I get what you're saying. I don't think $5 mil is going to get him that is probably his minimum to even have his agent let him know a team is interested.

Smarter? from production standpoint, I don't think so. Coleman is a serviceable RB that you can get most years in FA or in the draft

So Coleman gets his 4.4 ypc because of Julio. It works both ways. 

 

If we sign Bell I will be okay with it. If we don't I won't lose my mind, but we will need to probably pair a guy like Coleman with Crowell and that money between the 2 is probably going to close to Bell's cost. Bell is pretty versatile and will be "fresh" after having a year off. If he is anything close to what he was in Pitt he's going to help this offense in more than 1 way.

I see both sides, spending money on a 27yr old RB is dumb, and that 27yr old RB is a top 5 player and the JETS have no top performers anywhere. 

Going to be an interesting next 5 days of speculation. 

not quite look at his back ito smiths numbers following this theory he should put up good number too? his ypc is 3.3

[slats]

19 minutes ago, JiF said:

Yeah, I doubt we even sign him.  It's like the Kirk Cousins debate all over again. Lots of wasted debates. ha

And like Cousins, we'll be better off. 

[Stark]

2 minutes ago, rammagen said:

not quite look at his back ito smiths numbers following this theory he should put up good number too? his ypc is 3.3

Freeman and Coleman have similar YPC, Smith is the 3rd back you expect a drop. 

there's no argument with the premise Bell > Coleman

[DJF71]

Coleman for $10M is way better than Bell for $20M.  We can get Coleman in his prim with limited mileage. Jets are not a Bell away from a SB or even a playoff spot. 

[CTJetsFan]

10 minutes ago, Smashmouth said:

Marshall Faulk 

I think you can make the argument that without him the Rams never win that SB or even get to it.

Walter Payton

As great as the Bears defense was you can make the argument Walter Paytons 2000 + yards from scrimmage and 1500 + yards rushing made Jim Mcmahon and that offense tick. Do the Bears win that SB without Payton ?

Emmitt Smith 

Do the Cowboys win 3 SB's without him ?

Matt Snell

Do the Jets win SB 3 without Matt Snell ramming the ball down the Colts throats 

Franco Harris

Do the Steelers win 4 SB's in 5 years without Franco Harris

Thurman Thomas

Do the Bills go to 4 SB's in a row without him ?

49ers in the 80's always had a dynamic RB as the focal point of the west coast Offense and they won 4 SB's doing it with all those back's having huge numbers in the passing game.

John Riggins at 34 years old basically destroying the Dolphins in the year of the Mud Bowl.

No matter how you slice it the Patriots always seem to get great play out of their RB's during all their playoff runs. Sure they do it differently and they have an amazing offensive system but they always get big games out of running back when they need it in the playoffs

I know I'm missing some backs that had major contributions over the years in the playoffs and getting to the playoffs for many teams so getting the chance to add a dynamic RB can turn an offense around very quickly and the effect they will have on a young QB is easily the best way to take pressure off.

I get the point you are trying to make,  but to be honest, most of those teams (Harris/Steelers, Smith/Cowboys, Thomas/Bills) in my opinion probably get close to the same amount of SBs without those backs. All of those teams had multiple HOFers on both sides of the ball and also had great offensive lines, passing games and defenses.

Yes, they were great backs, but those were great teams built with a lot of great drafting....not free agents.

[New York Mick]

3 hours ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Looking forward to the thread debating cheese burger vs. filet mignon.

I’d take a burger 1000 times over filet mignon. I can get 3 big ass loaded burgers for the price of one boring tiny filet. 

[JustInFudge]

17 minutes ago, slats said:

And like Cousins, we'll be better off. 

Signing Bell will help make this statement stay a fact...

[Joe W. Namath]

Neither.  Draft a rb in the 3rd round.

[IndianaJet]

2 hours ago, Patriot Killa said:

He sure hasn’t proven a thing. You couldn’t make this guy your lead back. You’d be making yourself pick RB in the draft. That’s half way filling a hole. And for what? We have money. Look at Tevin Coleman here...

 

Coleman had 167 carries for 800 yards a 4.8 yard per carry avg.

Henry had 215 carries for 1059 yards a 4.9 yard per carry avg.

I'm no math major but it seems to me that Coleman's ypc vs. Henry's ypc should be significantly different given that, at least in the quoted stat, Henry was the best and Coleman was the worst.

Someone smarter than me at math explain why I might be wrong.

 

 

 

 

[Jet Nut]

41 minutes ago, IndianaJet said:

Coleman had 167 carries for 800 yards a 4.8 yard per carry avg.

Henry had 215 carries for 1059 yards a 4.9 yard per carry avg.

I'm no math major but it seems to me that Coleman's ypc vs. Henry's ypc should be significantly different given that, at least in the quoted stat, Henry was the best and Coleman was the worst.

Someone smarter than me at math explain why I might be wrong.

 

 

 

 

That makes little sense.  Its an average of 4.8 vs 4.9.  

Dont need math to understand that if one player is inconsistent vs another who makes a positive gain every time he touches the ball you get a list looks exactly like this one 

[Jet Life]

27 minutes ago, DJF71 said:

Coleman for $10M is way better than Bell for $20M.  We can get Coleman in his prim with limited mileage. Jets are not a Bell away from a SB or even a playoff spot. 

Bell wont get anywhere close to 20M a year and I would rather draft a 4th rounder than pay Coleman 10M. You would get the same production

[CTJetsFan]

8 minutes ago, IndianaJet said:

Coleman had 167 carries for 800 yards a 4.8 yard per carry avg.

Henry had 215 carries for 1059 yards a 4.9 yard per carry avg.

I'm no math major but it seems to me that Coleman's ypc vs. Henry's ypc should be significantly different given that, at least in the quoted stat, Henry was the best and Coleman was the worst.

Someone smarter than me at math explain why I might be wrong.

 

 

 

 

My guess, without looking into it, is that Coleman had more carries for long yards to boost up his YPC while still having a high % of runs for loss. Henry probably had a lot of 1-4 yard runs (I know from watching him for FF reasons). Outside of 2 or 3 monster games, he didn't do much.

[Jet Nut]

11 minutes ago, Joe W. Namath said:

Neither.  Draft a rb in the 3rd round.

Over you know the edge, the OL, WR, TE and everything else no one wants to spend on when it comes down to buying time

[Jet Life]

1 hour ago, Jet Nut said:

You don't give RBs second contacts? 

Curtis Martin and a whole lot of RBs all say hi

Exactly. Saw a tweet if Bell got 17M a year (most likely wont) it would take up 9% of our cap. Curtis Martins 8M was 15%. Sometimes it is worth paying the RB the second contract. Coleman is the exact guy you DONT pay the 2nd contract to!

[Barry McCockinner]

38 minutes ago, New York Mick said:

I’d take a burger 1000 times over filet mignon. I can get 3 big ass loaded burgers for the price of one boring tiny filet. 

User avatar checks out

[nyjbuddy]

12 minutes ago, IndianaJet said:

Coleman had 167 carries for 800 yards a 4.8 yard per carry avg.

Henry had 215 carries for 1059 yards a 4.9 yard per carry avg.

I'm no math major but it seems to me that Coleman's ypc vs. Henry's ypc should be significantly different given that, at least in the quoted stat, Henry was the best and Coleman was the worst.

Someone smarter than me at math explain why I might be wrong.

 

5

It's interesting the way those lists are titled; it's the way they are worded:

 Highest percentage of carries resulting in a gain 

vs

Highest percentage of carries resulting in a loss

For Derrick Henry it means 11.9% of the time he had zero or less yards on a carry.  Not that far off from the bottom of the second list unless he had a bunch of zero yard carries.

For Coleman it means 80.3% of the time he had zero or more yards on a carry.  Not that far off from the bottom of the first list.  He could easily be on the top list.  He would need 7-14 carries going from negative to zero or zero to positive and he could be on that top list.

What it tells us is that Coleman, on each play, is a boom or bust type of player rather than a consistent grinder.  This shows the type of player not a predictor of a player's production.

 

 

[IndianaJet]

9 minutes ago, nyjbuddy said:

It's interesting the way those lists are titled; it's the way they are worded:

 Highest percentage of carries resulting in a gain 

vs

Highest percentage of carries resulting in a loss

For Derrick Henry it means 11.9% of the time he had zero or less yards on a carry.  Not that far off from the bottom of the second list unless he had a bunch of zero yard carries.

For Coleman it means 80.3% of the time he had zero or more yards on a carry.  Not that far off from the bottom of the first list.  He could easily be on the top list.  He would need 7-14 carries going from negative to zero or zero to positive and he could be on that top list.

What it tells us is that Coleman, on each play, is a boom or bust type of player rather than a consistent grinder.  This shows the type of player not a predictor of a player's production.

 

 

You're absolutely right. 

Even when you look at the "good" list, someone like Zeke would also fall near the top of the "bad" list. 

I imagine that Zeke isn't on the "bad" list because he had a number of "0" yard gains.  If those "0" yard gains resulted in just 1 yard losses, Zeke would be very near to the top of the "bad" list...

...and I'm thinking people wouldn't have a problem with Zeke on the Jets.

 

[Jetsfan80]

4 hours ago, Darnold Schwarzenegger said:

Why do people think signing bell  means you cannot fix the o line in FA. We 102 million in cap space. We can sign Bell and any offensive lineman that you want. 

If jets signed bell for 15 mill a year the jets would still have more cap space than 30 other teams. This should be a no brainer

Perhaps.  But then you can forget about signing a pass rusher.  We have a ton of roster spots to fill.  That $102M will go quickly.

[Jetsfan80]

4 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

So what you want is a team that consist of zero guys that scare any team, of zero guys that any team has to game plan around.  Zero guys that can actually have a true impact on the game.

If we're gonna spend QB money on somebody who "scares" the opposition, it should be a pass rusher.

Otherwise, the guy who "scares" the opponent is already on the roster, theoretically:  Sam Darnold.  So we just need to build around him.  We don't need a centerpiece RB, really.  Darnold should be the centerpiece.

[Aussie Jet]

5 hours ago, Thai Jet said:

With so many other roster holes I think the Jets could spend their money more wisely than giving it to that knucklehead Bell.

Why do you think Bell is a knucklehead? Is it because he has a sense of his own worth that did not agree with what the Steelers were going to pay him, so he decided to sit the year out?

FWIW, I fully side with Bell on this one. The Steelers tried to sign Bell on the cheap and if he refused their contract offer but sign the franchise tender, they were going to give him 30 carries a game and then cast him aside like the Cowboys did with Murray a few years ago.

I think it's good to see a player have a true sense of his own worth and not cave.

I also happen to think that Bell is in the top two or three players the Jets should target this season to help Darnold. Get Bell and get upgrades on the offensive line and either trade back in the draft to accumulate picks or, if a deal can't be done, pick the best pass rusher available at #3.

I do not want Coleman or another running back available in free agency, as I believe that a move to sign Coleman is a side-ways move at best after signing Crowell last off-season. If the Jets miss out on Bell, then roll with Crowell for another season, along with McGuire, Cannon (if he sticks on the roster) and a draft pick.

The only thing that would change my mind is if the Browns make Duke Johnson available very cheap and Maccagnan gets him for a conditional seventh round pick or something similar.

[Aussie Jet]

3 hours ago, CTJetsFan said:

On the other hand, the Pats have won 6 SBs and I can't think of one HOF or possible HOF RB on any of those teams (Corey Dillon being the highest in career yardage).

I guess I just don't value RBs or the RB position as much as others. I'm on board with using an early pick (2nd round w/tradedown or a 3rd) on trying to land the next Kamara or Hunt. IMO, I'd rather see us spread the cap $ to improve more positions vs trying to hit a home run on 1.

 

Patriots spent a first round pick on a running back last season, who had 931 yards for six touchdowns on 209 carries (4.5 yards per carry) in 13 games in the regular season, and then a further 336 yards for six touchdowns on 71 carries in the playoffs (including 94 yards on 18 carries in the Super Bowl).

I doubt Sony Michel is going to go to the hall of fame, because he's too one-dimensional (doesn't catch the ball often enough - only eight receptions for 59 yards in the regular season and post-season), but the Patriots leaned heavily on Michel last season when he was healthy.

[CTJetsFan]

25 minutes ago, Aussie Jet said:

Patriots spent a first round pick on a running back last season, who had 931 yards for six touchdowns on 209 carries (4.5 yards per carry) in 13 games in the regular season, and then a further 336 yards for six touchdowns on 71 carries in the playoffs (including 94 yards on 18 carries in the Super Bowl).

I doubt Sony Michel is going to go to the hall of fame, because he's too one-dimensional (doesn't catch the ball often enough - only eight receptions for 59 yards in the regular season and post-season), but the Patriots leaned heavily on Michel last season when he was healthy.

You're right. Michel was a big part of their SB run this year

[FidelioJet]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

If we're gonna spend QB money on somebody who "scares" the opposition, it should be a pass rusher.

Otherwise, the guy who "scares" the opponent is already on the roster, theoretically:  Sam Darnold.  So we just need to build around him.  We don't need a centerpiece RB, really.  Darnold should be the centerpiece.

Who is this FA pass rusher that's going to scare an offense?

Is there a top 3 FA pass rusher, in his prime available in FA? 

[Thai Jet]

1 hour ago, Aussie Jet said:

Why do you think Bell is a knucklehead? Is it because he has a sense of his own worth that did not agree with what the Steelers were going to pay him, so he decided to sit the year out?

FWIW, I fully side with Bell on this one. The Steelers tried to sign Bell on the cheap and if he refused their contract offer but sign the franchise tender, they were going to give him 30 carries a game and then cast him aside like the Cowboys did with Murray a few years ago.

I think it's good to see a player have a true sense of his own worth and not cave.

I also happen to think that Bell is in the top two or three players the Jets should target this season to help Darnold. Get Bell and get upgrades on the offensive line and either trade back in the draft to accumulate picks or, if a deal can't be done, pick the best pass rusher available at #3.

I do not want Coleman or another running back available in free agency, as I believe that a move to sign Coleman is a side-ways move at best after signing Crowell last off-season. If the Jets miss out on Bell, then roll with Crowell for another season, along with McGuire, Cannon (if he sticks on the roster) and a draft pick.

The only thing that would change my mind is if the Browns make Duke Johnson available very cheap and Maccagnan gets him for a conditional seventh round pick or something similar.

If $14 mil a year is being signed "on the cheap" then hell SIGN ME UP. He lost $14 mil last year and will NEVER get that money back. That's why he's a knucklehead. I simply don't trust him to be even close to the $$ he'll be getting going forward.

[Tony MaC]

I say just get both, with a priority on Bell. I don't see Coleman making more than most RB's do, around 4 million a year. The Jets can afford both and they sound like they'd be a good one two punch.

It doesn't seem like an either or scenario, just a question of whether they can both through the door or not.

[bla bla bla]

39 minutes ago, Thai Jet said:

If $14 mil a year is being signed "on the cheap" then hell SIGN ME UP. He lost $14 mil last year and will NEVER get that money back. That's why he's a knucklehead. I simply don't trust him to be even close to the $$ he'll be getting going forward.

That's not the way he looked at it though. $14M + being run into the ground could definitely lead to an injury. Sitting out a year guaranteed him ~$50M. I'm sorry but I completely agree with his decision to sit out. It was just a smart financial decision.

Sure if he had no injury and no down year then he could have net $50M + $14M but why risk it?

[Smashmouth]

6 hours ago, Jet Life said:

Exactly. Saw a tweet if Bell got 17M a year (most likely wont) it would take up 9% of our cap. Curtis Martins 8M was 15%. Sometimes it is worth paying the RB the second contract. Coleman is the exact guy you DONT pay the 2nd contract to!

If the RB is just an absolute superstar then it pays IMHO ... Coleman is not even in the same zip code as Bell. Could Coleman turn into another Priest Holmes and excel on his second contract more than his first ? Its possible but it's much more unlikely than Bell just picking up where he left off. 

You would also think with Bell being a life long Jets fan if we paid him high dollar he would play with pride rather than mailing it in. 

In the case of Bell there must be a clause protecting the team if he tests positive for weed that's my only real concern because I think if he gets caught again its 10 games or a year suspension not sure which

[Smashmouth]

2 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

Who is this FA pass rusher that's going to scare an offense?

Is there a top 3 FA pass rusher, in his prime available in FA? 

Exactly ! the Pass Rushers that will control a game are all under contract and their's not many of them. None of the current guys available will have the kind of impact on the game Bell will have. Now if the Jets Get Bell and a WR and a pass rusher and a couple OL and then have Bosa fall into their laps then we're talkin playoff's

[Thai Jet]

1 hour ago, bla bla bla said:

That's not the way he looked at it though. $14M + being run into the ground could definitely lead to an injury. Sitting out a year guaranteed him ~$50M. I'm sorry but I completely agree with his decision to sit out. It was just a smart financial decision.

Sure if he had no injury and no down year then he could have net $50M + $14M but why risk it?

We'll see about that $50 mil pretty soon won't we ?

[Thai Jet]

21 minutes ago, Smashmouth said:

If the RB is just an absolute superstar then it pays IMHO ... Coleman is not even in the same zip code as Bell. Could Coleman turn into another Priest Holmes and excel on his second contract more than his first ? Its possible but it's much more unlikely than Bell just picking up where he left off. 

You would also think with Bell being a life long Jets fan if we paid him high dollar he would play with pride rather than mailing it in. 

In the case of Bell there must be a clause protecting the team if he tests positive for weed that's my only real concern because I think if he gets caught again its 10 games or a year suspension not sure which

That's a lot to gamble on.

[Darnold Schwarzenegger]

4 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Perhaps.  But then you can forget about signing a pass rusher.  We have a ton of roster spots to fill.  That $102M will go quickly.

This is a false perception around here

I mean why do you think that? Like I said even if you sign Bell you still have more available cap space then every other team outside of the colts. 

Hypothetically the jets can sign 2 olineman @ 10 mill a season each, bell at 15 million a season, and a pass rusher at 15 million a season and the jets would still have roughly 50 million in cap space available to spend on other areas of the roster. 

Do you realize how much 50 million in cap space is?  The Jets would still have more cap space than 26 other teams. 

So basically the jets can sign Bell, 2 olineman, and a pass rusher and still have 50 million in cap space, which would be more than 26 other teams. With the remaining 50 million you can easily fill out the rest of the roster.