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Tidbits about Bell and Darnold from a 538 article


thshadow

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There's an article on the 538 blog.  It's a bit long, but I'll post some highlights.

The graph below reflects research done by the author that running backs tend to run at peak efficiency typically through 2400 touches.  You can see Bell's production against the number of touches.  This data would project that he should have 2 more good years at his high production rate (assuming ~300 touch years).

Salfie-Paine-LeVeon-0313-1.png

 

Below is a table about Darnold.  He had the 2nd highest fraction of dropbacks in 3rd and long among all QBs, which is obviously a tough situation to be in.  This high fraction is mainly due to lack of success running the ball.

The Jets often put Sam Darnold in a tough spot

Among 2018 NFL quarterbacks, the greatest share of all dropbacks* that were on third down and long

  DROPBACKS  
RANK PLAYER TEAM TOTAL 3RD & LONG SHARE
1 Lamar Jackson Ravens 203 40 19.7%
2 Sam Darnold Jets 459 89 19.4
3 Josh Rosen Cardinals 451 86 19.1
4 Ryan Tannehill Dolphins 315 60 19.1
5 Josh Allen Bills 396 71 17.9
6 Dak Prescott Cowboys 610 103 16.9
7 Alex Smith Redskins 369 61 16.5
8 Marcus Mariota Titans 407 67 16.5
9 Russell Wilson Seahawks 499 81 16.2
10 Deshaun Watson Texans 619 100 16.2

* Pass attempts and sacks

 

Finally, here's a stat that has probably been posted before, though I didn't remember it:

He struggled mightily, especially before missing three games with injurybeginning in Week 10. But upon his return, Darnold was excellent — without receiving the fanfare that Baker Mayfield generated in the season’s second half. In weeks 14 through 17, the rookie from USC was actually  the top quarterback in football measured by Total QBR. And Darnold achieved this distinction despite being saddled with the least successful running game in football in that period.

 

 

 

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Interesting.  Thanks for posting.  The year off for Bell sort of changes the analysis in ways that are impossible to predict in this case, but it is a cool way of looking at production over a career even if it's a bit limited.

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It felt like constantly Darnold was in 3rd and 8’s and often 3rd and shorts would turn into offsides, flag, 3rd and long 

Bell will change that a lot, but I really hope this OL gets addressed somehow but I really don’t see how at this point. First round will be defense and then 3rd maybe get an OL contributor at some point

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1st down incomplete.  2nd down up the gut for 2 yds.  3rd and 8 here we go...

It's not all on the OL or Crowell or Sam pre vs. post injury.  Bates ran a predictable scheme and was likely the most predictable play caller in the NFL last year. Maybe it was trying to make Bowles happy.  Or maybe he just sucked.  Other teams feasted on us...

 

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45 minutes ago, peekskill68 said:

1st down incomplete.  2nd down up the gut for 2 yds.  3rd and 8 here we go...

It's not all on the OL or Crowell or Sam pre vs. post injury.  Bates ran a predictable scheme and was likely the most predictable play caller in the NFL last year. Maybe it was trying to make Bowles happy.  Or maybe he just sucked.  Other teams feasted on us...

 

Yup. 

And just a lack of talent.

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47 minutes ago, peekskill68 said:

1st down incomplete.  2nd down up the gut for 2 yds.  3rd and 8 here we go...

It's not all on the OL or Crowell or Sam pre vs. post injury.  Bates ran a predictable scheme and was likely the most predictable play caller in the NFL last year. Maybe it was trying to make Bowles happy.  Or maybe he just sucked.  Other teams feasted on us...

 

Yeah agree you don't just say "Bell" and suddenly the rushing average jumps by a yard & a half. Playcalling and the line have at least as much effect (though I think it's easy to understate Bell's consistent dual-threat skills and experience in presumably being able to pick up blitzing DBs/LBs). 

Since the play calling will be a constant no matter which RB or OLmen they add, I'd still like to see them improve the starting OL far more than just Osemele.

They have two tackles - neither of whom is particularly good or consistent - both becoming FAs next year, and last year's backup center is returning. I sense even they didn't want Harrison returning as the starter, since they were still pursuing Paradis even after signing Harrison. Was hoping for a new G (check), new C, plus draft a T prospect who might compete at RT as a rookie then hopefully look like he could slide to the left side next year, leaving just RT as a must-fill hole in 2020 (which is fillable via an old FA plus another draft pick who would ideally take the FA's starting job away or fill in after the old guy's upcoming injury). Granted FA isn't yet even in its 2nd week, and the draft hasn't happened yet, but I don't want them to get boxed into re-upping one or both of Beachum/Shell out of desperation more than desire. 

As far as the study, it does ignore how many more hits a major receiving back takes than a 2-down back, though granted in touches as a receiver they're more likely to get pushed oob by a LB/DB, or run oob outright, instead of running into a wall of body-armor and then having 280-350 pound monsters taking shots at his knees & ribs & then piling on. 

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28 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

As far as the study, it does ignore how many more hits a major receiving back takes than a 2-down back, though granted in touches as a receiver they're more likely to get pushed oob by a LB/DB, or run oob outright, instead of running into a wall of body-armor and then having 280-350 pound monsters taking shots at his knees & ribs & then piling on. 

One thing that you might conclude from that study is that "wear on the tires" is more important than years in the league / age.  

So even if touches isn't the end-all metric, the data implies that Bell's year off might extend the length of his prime by a year.

But these things are always just estimates for aggregates, while every individual case is different.

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33 minutes ago, thshadow said:

One thing that you might conclude from that study is that "wear on the tires" is more important than years in the league / age.  

So even if touches isn't the end-all metric, the data implies that Bell's year off might extend the length of his prime by a year.

But these things are always just estimates for aggregates, while every individual case is different.

No doubt. Wonder how the data changes when you factor in who's had repeated injuries prior to that 2400-touch cutoff, as Bell has had.

I was still in favor of going after him, so long as a 3rd guaranteed season (whether fully or implicitly guaranteed) wasn't included. Wishes for it aside, I don't think they're winning a SB in the next 2 seasons and I'd like to give Darnold the best instead of arguing over whether or not excuses for some lack of production are valid. The OL still needs work also.

If he's productive for 2 years and then looks like he's slowing down a little (or gets outright injured) in Dec 2020 then IMO he'll have served his purpose. So BFD they won't sign another mid-level WR or DT in free agency. So long as he isn't eating up so much they stay away from a WR or serious OLman, I like the pickup.

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2 minutes ago, ljr said:

Interesting that other than Baker all the rookie QB’s were at the top of that list ... def the QB learning curve plays a big part in those results


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

Baker had the best supporting cast last year so it makes sense. He also has a vastly improved cast with Odell being there. Hes gonna put up some ridiculous numbers. Im just waiting for Macc to get some more weapons for Darnold. 

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4 hours ago, Hackenberg said:

lets cut to the chase.

Darnold Sucks. there is no upside. USC Qbs historically suck.

 Jets QBs have sucked. the theme is repeating. sell his autograph card, if you have one, immediately before the season starts

Who exactly would select a username like Hackenberg?

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On 3/14/2019 at 4:42 PM, thshadow said:

There's an article on the 538 blog.  It's a bit long, but I'll post some highlights.

The graph below reflects research done by the author that running backs tend to run at peak efficiency typically through 2400 touches.  You can see Bell's production against the number of touches.  This data would project that he should have 2 more good years at his high production rate (assuming ~300 touch years).

Salfie-Paine-LeVeon-0313-1.png

 

Below is a table about Darnold.  He had the 2nd highest fraction of dropbacks in 3rd and long among all QBs, which is obviously a tough situation to be in.  This high fraction is mainly due to lack of success running the ball.

The Jets often put Sam Darnold in a tough spot

Among 2018 NFL quarterbacks, the greatest share of all dropbacks* that were on third down and long

  DROPBACKS  
RANK PLAYER TEAM TOTAL 3RD & LONG SHARE
1 Lamar Jackson Ravens 203 40 19.7%
2 Sam Darnold Jets 459 89 19.4
3 Josh Rosen Cardinals 451 86 19.1
4 Ryan Tannehill Dolphins 315 60 19.1
5 Josh Allen Bills 396 71 17.9
6 Dak Prescott Cowboys 610 103 16.9
7 Alex Smith Redskins 369 61 16.5
8 Marcus Mariota Titans 407 67 16.5
9 Russell Wilson Seahawks 499 81 16.2
10 Deshaun Watson Texans 619 100 16.2

* Pass attempts and sacks

 

Finally, here's a stat that has probably been posted before, though I didn't remember it:

He struggled mightily, especially before missing three games with injurybeginning in Week 10. But upon his return, Darnold was excellent — without receiving the fanfare that Baker Mayfield generated in the season’s second half. In weeks 14 through 17, the rookie from USC was actually  the top quarterback in football measured by Total QBR. And Darnold achieved this distinction despite being saddled with the least successful running game in football in that period.

 

 

 

Yikes.  Tough spot for rookies.  4 of the Top 5 QBs asked to drop back on 3rd and long most were last year's rookies.

 

 

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10 hours ago, Hackenberg said:

lets cut to the chase.

Darnold Sucks. there is no upside. USC Qbs historically suck.

 Jets QBs have sucked. the theme is repeating. sell his autograph card, if you have one, immediately before the season starts

We might just have read the single dumbest post in JN history.

 

Congrats Hackenmoron

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On 3/18/2019 at 10:42 AM, ASH1962 said:

We might just have read the single dumbest post in JN history.

 

Congrats Hackenmoron

yeah, that 4-9 record just proves me wrong,right?

look, i've learned over the last 4 years, after watching sports for 35 years. That its entertainment, not competion.

since tv took over, guys with silly geek names like Darnold, do not become super stars. he looks like a angry Howdy Doody.

he aint the next anything. He'll be a bench warmer soon enough. Jets havent been sh*t since the late 60s.. so whats different now?

what I said is in fact the single most intelligent, factual and truthful thing ever said here. History proves me absolutely correct. History repeats itself. He might tease with some promise. a Couple 8-8 seasons. Then theyll be back to a new QB.

the Giants everage a SB every 10 years. The Jets average sucking for the last 50. At least new uniforms are coming

 

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On 3/14/2019 at 9:26 PM, peekskill68 said:

1st down incomplete.  2nd down up the gut for 2 yds.  3rd and 8 here we go...

It's not all on the OL or Crowell or Sam pre vs. post injury.  Bates ran a predictable scheme and was likely the most predictable play caller in the NFL last year. Maybe it was trying to make Bowles happy.  Or maybe he just sucked.  Other teams feasted on us...

 

The Jets did not throw the ball often on first down. That would've made too much sense.

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6 hours ago, Hackenberg said:

yeah, that 4-9 record just proves me wrong,right?

look, i've learned over the last 4 years, after watching sports for 35 years. That its entertainment, not competion.

since tv took over, guys with silly geek names like Darnold, do not become super stars. he looks like a angry Howdy Doody.

he aint the next anything. He'll be a bench warmer soon enough. Jets havent been sh*t since the late 60s.. so whats different now?

what I said is in fact the single most intelligent, factual and truthful thing ever said here. History proves me absolutely correct. History repeats itself. He might tease with some promise. a Couple 8-8 seasons. Then theyll be back to a new QB.

the Giants everage a SB every 10 years. The Jets average sucking for the last 50. At least new uniforms are coming

 

An innovation-message board Product Placement.

 

This guy is the Before  for a new anti-depressant medication.

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On 3/18/2019 at 1:35 PM, jetstream23 said:

Yikes.  Tough spot for rookies.  4 of the Top 5 QBs asked to drop back on 3rd and long most were last year's rookies.

 

 

Yeah, but maybe the rookies were to blame for it because the failed on 1st and 2nd down.  The scariest part of that chart is that Gase had his QB, and his QB was tied for third on the list.  Ouch.

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Wild card with Bell is the layoff. Most NFL players never really recover physically 100% from the end of one year to the next, especially as they get older. But Bell will have a year and a half to recover and not from any injury. It is pretty uncharted waters. Will that year extend that number to 3000 touches before tailing off, or will the lack of football activity for so long hinder his ability to get back to top football form? It will be interesting to see. Of course, we also do not have the offensive line yet that he needs to maximize that potential.

In terms of Darnold, I think his ceiling is unbounded. What he did in the last 4 weeks was remarkable. But we need to remember there is now a year of tape on Darnold, and defenses are spectacular at catching up to QBs in the second dance. If he is as special as we think, he still makes a huge leap like Goff, but it is not guaranteed.

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On 3/22/2019 at 7:39 AM, kelticwizard said:

An innovation-message board Product Placement.

 

This guy is the Before  for a new anti-depressant medication.

Optimism, is another way of saying you're too stupid to understand /accept reality.

Understanding the truth is depressing  at times,yes. 

50 years...

Maybe after Namath passes,then they'll lift the ban

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