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Two Round Mock from CBS


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1 hour ago, greenwave81 said:

My point was, Leo Williams, the ‘best player in the draft’ was compared to Reggie White. 

Fir a DT to be worth the #3 pick they have to be Donald-good...otherwise they’re just another Leo Williams...average, expensive, and easily replaceable in FA with another hole plugger. 

Know what cannot be replaced easily in FA or by trade?  An even just above average LT. 

And who is that "just above average LT"?  Jonah Williams?  Many don't even project him to be a Left Tackle at all.  And if they are right then you just drafted a good guard with the #3 pick in the draft.  That would be a huge mistake. If by chance, they trade down and pick such a player in the middle of the first, then it makes sense.  Not with the third pick.

To compare Quinnen Williams to Leonard Williams is not fair.  They are not the same player, or person. Leo doesn't seem to have any fire in his belly.  Quinnen does.  Q Williams is also much faster, and quicker.  "All Williams are not created equal."

Jonah Williams is not even the best Left Tackle prospect in the draft.  Jawaan Taylor is.  He is not projected to go with the 3rd overall pick either. Two of the best left tackles in the game took very different paths to the NFL.  Trent Williams was the 4th overall pick.  David Bakhtiari was  chosen in the 4th round.  The left tackle position is just as risky, if not more so than picking a defensive tackle.  The attached is from a  2016 article, it illustrates the point.

 

1. Recent history is very ugly. In the past 10 years, there have been five tackles chosen either first or second overall. Above-average starting tackles today among those five: zero. Jake Long (2008) is a backup in Atlanta now after two major knee surgeries. Jason Smith (2009) failed with the Rams, in part because of a severe concussion, and is out of football. Eric Fisher (2013) is improving, but was Pro Football Focus’ 39th-rated tackle last year; Luke Joeckel (2013) continued to struggle in Jacksonville and was rated 52nd. Greg Robinson of the Rams (2014) was 73rd of PFF’s 76 rated tackles last fall.

2. The odds of picking even a good tackle very high are long. Of the 17 tackles picked in the top 10 since 2005, only three were ever first-team all-pro. Cleveland’s Joe Thomas and Dallas’ Tyron Smith are the only current starters who have been so honored, while Jake Long earned one first-team nod in Miami. Now, obviously only one left tackle per year can be named first-team all-pro, and when you draft one of these players high you expect him to be a blind-side protector on the left side. But only four of the 17 ranked in PFF’s top 20 of tackles for the 2015 season play on that side: Smith, Thomas, Trent Williams of Washington and Jake Matthews of Atlanta. Lane Johnson in Philadelphia is a good player. D’Brickashaw Ferguson was very good in mid-career but has fallen off some now. Russell Okung likely will be allowed to walk in free agency by Seattle after a mediocre run.      

All thing equal, I'll take my chances with Quinnen Williams, the consensus best defensive tackle in the draft, if not the best player.  He has a better chance of being the next Aaron Donald, than Jonah Williams has being the next Trent Williams.

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15 hours ago, joenamathwouldn'tcry said:

Sorry,Brick you don't know what you're talking about.  You see DT and have a Pavlovian episode.  He will be much a much better player than Kris Jenkins ever dreamt of being. The fact that you even mention Kris Jenkins when discussing Quinnen Williams shows that you completely misread  this player. He is not your typical DT. 

He is fast, extremely so.  He doesn't "absorb", the line, he moves it.  He is not a " run stuffer".  He is a disrupter, he moves the line of scrimmage backwards, into the backfield, and makes his plays there.  He sacks the quarterback. And he is still growing and improving.

I liked Kris Jenkins, don't get me wrong.  But Quinnen Williams and Kris Jenkins are not the same type of player.  It's not even close.  How do you like your Crow? Saute'ed  or Roasted?

I remember Dwayne Robertson being compared to Warren sapp. 

Sounds a lot like Williams being compared to Donald. 

These players never live up to these high expectations 

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3 minutes ago, joenamathwouldn'tcry said:

And who is that "just above average LT"?  Jonah Williams?  Many don't even project him to be a Left Tackle at all.  And if they are right then you just drafted a good guard with the #3 pick in the draft.  That would be a huge mistake. If by chance, they trade down and pick such a player in the middle of the first, then it makes sense.  Not with the third pick.

To compare Quinnen Williams to Leonard Williams is not fair.  They are not the same player, or person. Leo doesn't seem to have any fire in his belly.  Quinnen does.  Q Williams is also much faster, and quicker.  "All Williams are not created equal."

Jonah Williams is not even the best Left Tackle prospect in the draft.  Jawaan Taylor is.  He is not projected to go with the 3rd overall pick either. Two of the best left tackles in the game took very different paths to the NFL.  Trent Williams was the 4th overall pick.  David Bakhtiari was  chosen in the 4th round.  The left tackle position is just as risky, if not more so than picking a defensive tackle.  The attached is from a  2016 article, it illustrates the point.

 

1. Recent history is very ugly. In the past 10 years, there have been five tackles chosen either first or second overall. Above-average starting tackles today among those five: zero. Jake Long (2008) is a backup in Atlanta now after two major knee surgeries. Jason Smith (2009) failed with the Rams, in part because of a severe concussion, and is out of football. Eric Fisher (2013) is improving, but was Pro Football Focus’ 39th-rated tackle last year; Luke Joeckel (2013) continued to struggle in Jacksonville and was rated 52nd. Greg Robinson of the Rams (2014) was 73rd of PFF’s 76 rated tackles last fall.

2. The odds of picking even a good tackle very high are long. Of the 17 tackles picked in the top 10 since 2005, only three were ever first-team all-pro. Cleveland’s Joe Thomas and Dallas’ Tyron Smith are the only current starters who have been so honored, while Jake Long earned one first-team nod in Miami. Now, obviously only one left tackle per year can be named first-team all-pro, and when you draft one of these players high you expect him to be a blind-side protector on the left side. But only four of the 17 ranked in PFF’s top 20 of tackles for the 2015 season play on that side: Smith, Thomas, Trent Williams of Washington and Jake Matthews of Atlanta. Lane Johnson in Philadelphia is a good player. D’Brickashaw Ferguson was very good in mid-career but has fallen off some now. Russell Okung likely will be allowed to walk in free agency by Seattle after a mediocre run.      

All thing equal, I'll take my chances with Quinnen Williams, the consensus best defensive tackle in the draft, if not the best player.  He has a better chance of being the next Aaron Donald, than Jonah Williams has being the next Trent Williams.

I don’t want Jonah, I’d take either Taylor or Little...whomever the NYJ think is better. And most mocks have Taylor going #6 or 7 and Little not far behind...I can live with that spread as it stands, but I’d hope they have the opportunity to trade down. 

This whole conversation highlights once again the difference in teams ‘draft philosophy ‘...either strict BPA or using some other metrics in your decision process like ‘positional value’ and ‘team needs’.  LT is more highly valued than a DT hands down and rightly so. The NYJ and their BPA philosphophy, or based on supposed team needs, lead to drafting 2 S’s in 2017 while not drafting OTs like Garret Bolles and Ryan Ramczyk...2 guys who have been plug and play from the get go on rookie contracts to boot. 

Just saying that if you draft Q and he ain’t Aaron Donald good, it’s a waste of #3 pick because he plays a position more easily filled and at less cost in FA than an even average LT. 

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12 hours ago, Miss Lonelyhearts said:

The 3cone is what’s skewing the number here. And it’s accurate.

that’s interesting- I don’t think it’s enough to really change my opinion overall but I guess the metrics really do hate the 7+ second 3 cone. especially without plus explosive power in the jumps

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7 minutes ago, cant wait said:

that’s interesting- I don’t think it’s enough to really change my opinion overall but I guess the metrics really do hate the 7+ second 3 cone. especially without plus explosive power in the jumps

Again yes again accurate. And this is the one who’s presumptively gone. So you see the problem here.

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33 minutes ago, themeangreenkillingmachine said:

I remember Dwayne Robertson being compared to Warren sapp. 

Sounds a lot like Williams being compared to Donald. 

These players never live up to these high expectations 

Comparisons work both ways.  I am sure that Sapp and Donald were compared to other "like" players when they came out.  Who was Brady compared to?  And Rodgers?  Those players exceeded the performance of the players they compared to.  Sometimes they're better, sometimes they're worse.

The fact that Quinnen Williams is being compared to Aaron Donald should be seen as a positive.  At the end of the day comparisons  don't mean much.  They're opinions.  And never is a long, long time.  Regards.

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13 hours ago, joenamathwouldn'tcry said:

Aaron Donald had more than 100 QB pressures this year, so yes I do.  And 13-15 sacks is doable.  As for the draft. we will see what happens next month.  Other than your aversion to taking Williams at three and trading down, what would you do with the #3 if we were stuck drafting in that spot?

If I felt I could get a 10 year starter on the OL at 3, and was confident in it, I wouldn't give a rat turd about perceived "value" and just make the selection.

If there is not that guy, then I would look at TJ Hockenson and try to evaluate the impact he would have in protecting Sam Darnold. If his value as an offensive weapon is good enough that it allows the offense to operate faster and get the ball out quicker and take away blitzes to double team him, then I seriously consider taking him at 3, which even by the "value" metric which I hate is not big ogf a reach,

If neither of those are there, then I look at the defensive possibilities, likely some combination of Williams, Allen and Bosa and choose the one that will add the most turnovers and QB pressures to the team, keeping in mind that inside pressure is more valuable especially from a 4 man rush than edge rushing. It is just super rare. 

But always my priority at 3 is to protect Darnold and/or give him more weapons.

 

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On 3/18/2019 at 8:16 PM, peekskill68 said:

You could be right.  But I'd sure like to see how Mara and Tisch handle the "Fire Gettleman" billboards that will pop up on Route 3 if he defers QB to 2020 and drafts defense and OL...

They'll probably throw around some chairs, or maybe destroy the kickers practice net in honor of Odell.

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