Drafting elite players by the numbers

[nyjbuddy]

I have seen a lot of posts about the Jets trading down and picking up a 2nd round pick along with various other propositions (future 2020 picks, other late rounder picks, players, etc).  I have also seen a lot of articles which state it's better for teams to trade down (https://www.vox.com/2014/5/7/5683448/how-nfl-teams-ignore-basic-economics-and-draft-players-irrationally).  So I looked for statistical justification for trading down.

Using pro-football-reference, I looked at the last 10 drafts to see where all-pro and pro bowl players are drafted.  I then separated these players by round and by position.  I also did this for pro bowl players who were multi-year pro bowlers.  I must add though, pro-football-reference is not 100% accurate.  One thing that may alter the statistics is they use the position the player is drafted (i.e. Kelechi Osemele is listed as a tackle).  Also, this does not include undrafted free agents

Here are the all-pro stats:

		Off	Def	Sp		C	CB	DB	DE	DT	G	K	LB	P	QB	RB	S	T	TE	WR
1st	52	23	29	0		2	2	8	7	5	4		6		3	4	1	6		4
2nd	15	7	8	0		1		1	1				4			2	2	2	1	1
3rd	12	8	4	0				1			1		2			3	1		2	2
4th	5	3	2	0						1						1	1	1		1
5th	8	3	4	1			1	2						1			1	1		2
6th	4	2	0	2		1						2								1
7th	1	0	0	1								1
	97	46	47	4	97

A few things that stood out:

1. WR can be found in any round; as can safety
2. Rare to find all-pro defensive players after the first 2 rounds
3. The NFL does a good job of identifying players in the early rounds

Here are the pro bowl players followed by pro bowl players that had more than 1 year

PB						1 year																		Multiple
		Off	Def	Sp		C	CB	DB	DE	DT	G	K	LB	OLB	P	QB	RB	S	T	TE	WR	FB		C	CB	DB	DE	DT	G	K	LB	QB	RB	S	T	TE	WR
1st	124	59	65	0		4	5	18	15	9	7		12	3		12	10	3	13	3	10			3	2	12	9	6	6		9	4	6		9	1	9
2nd	52	28	24	0		2	1	7	4	2	3		7	1		2	5	2	1	4	11			2		4	3	2			2	2	4	1	1	3	4
3rd	37	25	12	0				2	3	2	5		4			2	6	1	1	5	6							1	3		2	1	3			2	3
4th	23	12	11	0				3	2	2			1	2		2	4	1	3	2	1						1	1				1	2		2	1
5th	21	10	8	3				5		1			1	1	3		3		1	2	3	1				3									1		2
6th	11	7	2	2		1		1	1			2				1	3				2			1		1							1				1
7th	4	3	0	1								1					1		1		1									1
	272	144	122	6	272																		272																166

A few things that stood out:

1. Offensive skill players (TE/WR/RB) can be consistently found outside the 1st round
2. DT/DE/LB not easy to find after the first 2/3 rounds 
3. More likely to find a pro bowl talent on offense in the last 3 rounds over a defensive talent in the last 3 rounds
4. Again, the NFL does a good job of identifying talent early in the draft; the numbers are very 1st round heavy.

Last, I looked at the hit rate of multi-year pro bowlers by their draft position

Pick	Off	Def	Total	Possible picks	PB Hit rate
1-3	5	5	10	30	33.3%
4-10	11	9	20	70	28.6%
11-15	6	10	16	50	32%
16-20	4	6	10	50	20%
21-25	10	7	17	50	34%
26-32	6	4	10	70	14.3%
33-48	7	9	16	160	10%
49-64	8	4	12	160	7.5%

So it does not seem to matter much where the Jets draft in the first 25, the hit rates are very similar (except that 16-20 range).  But what matters is getting a player of need in those early picks.  There is a big drop off between the top 25 and the remaining top 64. 

So if the Jets were to trade down

1. It should be for multiple 1st round picks (could be future picks). For example, if the Jets were to trade with Oakland this year, it would be better to trade the 3rd and 68th picks for the 4th and 24th rather than the 3rd for the 4th and 35th pick.
2. Use early picks for these positions (LB, DE, DT, DB) or (RB, T, WR), though RB, WR, and DB can be found throughout the draft
3. Use later picks to draft offensive players as they are more likely to find an impact offensive player vs impact defensive player.
4. Draft a center in the first 2 rounds
5. Tight ends can be found throughout the draft but not too late

 

 

[bealeb319]

I think part of the reason is that the pro bowl is a popularity contest. Everyone knows who the first round picks are and sometimes guys who had great college success get voted in based off of their name and not their rookie season. Often players make the pro bowl who are not the best players they just get voted in.

Sent from my LGUS991 using JetNation.com mobile app

[GREENBEAN]

It's a little tough for me to read and stay with it, but great job!  Very cool information.  So we should draft a Center at 3 then.   Got it!   

[CTJetsFan]

On 3/23/2019 at 7:34 AM, bealeb319 said:

I think part of the reason is that the pro bowl is a popularity contest. Everyone knows who the first round picks are and sometimes guys who had great college success get voted in based off of their name and not their rookie season. Often players make the pro bowl who are not the best players they just get voted in.

Sent from my LGUS991 using JetNation.com mobile app
 

There is a difference between a player who is "All-Pro" vs a player in the Pro Bowl.  A lot fewer players are selected as "All-Pro" vs who gets voted to the Pro Bowl