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Interesting Josh Allen analysis


nico002

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First watch this video on why Dion Jordan failed: 

 

Then look at the same analysis for Josh Allen: 

 

 

Summary: The guy looks as a stat called “share of production” that measures what percentage of the teams sacks/tackles for loss/etc come from the player. Deion Jordan had huge red flags in this area while Allen looks to project to a future all pro. I thought this was interesting since the biggest knock on Allen’s production is that he “lucked” into a bunch of open lane sacks- the fact that he seems to be the only one on his team to benefit from this makes his production seems much more legit.

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This is who I want at 3. The real queston will be, is Allen worth taking over a trade down option that could possibly grab a player like Sweat, Burns, White, J.Taylor, Greedy, Oliver, Metcalf and then a top rated Center + late round picks?

There will be plenty of talent on the board from picks 6-15. So many potential ways for Mac to f*ck this up.

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3 hours ago, nico002 said:

First watch this video on why Dion Jordan failed: 

 

Then look at the same analysis for Josh Allen: 

 

 

Summary: The guy looks as a stat called “share of production” that measures what percentage of the teams sacks/tackles for loss/etc come from the player. Deion Jordan had huge red flags in this area while Allen looks to project to a future all pro. I thought this was interesting since the biggest knock on Allen’s production is that he “lucked” into a bunch of open lane sacks- the fact that he seems to be the only one on his team to benefit from this makes his production seems much more legit.

 

This is a great data point.  And focuses on a question that people often have generally in life.....Is it luck or skill?  When something tends to happen over and over it becomes difficult to call it luck.  If he were only successful vs. one type of offense, when rushing from one particular spot, or only on 3rd and long, then there would be concerns.  When an offense defends against outside pass rushers pretty well....but in a game vs. Kentucky they can't stop Josh Allen, that says something.

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I like Josh Allen a lot. In addition to his skillset he has high character qualities. He could be the answer to our edge rush problems. But, do you think using the 3rd pick on a potential one down specialist is worth it?

There are legit questions about Allen vs. the run. He could potentially be a 3rd down specialist, while be a liability on 1st & 2nd.

I won’t hate the pick, but I’d take a trade down (you can still get Sweat or Burns in top 10), or Quinnen Williams over Allen.

I know Williams isn’t the headline position, but if you can actually get interior pressure on the QB, thats a rare asset to have. It doesn’t come along often. Look at what Donnald does for LA. He anchors the whole D. Remember when Kris Jenkins did for us when he was healthy?

Top 3 pick you take a kings random to trade out, or you take a 3 down blue chip player.

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5 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

Watch his tape he didn’t “luck into sacks” he beat Tackles consistently 

and I love the criticism that he just got sacks because of his quickness. So? 

Yea I think a lot of it is because of his bowl game performance specifically. its Good to see that the data shows he can be credited for the bulk of his teams production- ie he didn’t just benefit from the “system” or situation.

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7 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

Watch his tape he didn’t “luck into sacks” he beat Tackles consistently 

and I love the criticism that he just got sacks because of his quickness. So? 

Agreed, what a truly stupid statement.

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Just now, nico002 said:

Yea I think a lot of it is because of his bowl game performance specifically. its Good to see that the data shows he can be credited for the bulk of his teams production- ie he didn’t just benefit from the “system” or situation.

If you watch a lot of Allen’s highlights he does show hand technique but a lot of the time it’s obscured by the camera angle because his back is to the camera another thing is his hands are so quick it’s easy to miss what he’s doing

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29 minutes ago, Adoni Beast said:

I like Josh Allen a lot. In addition to his skillset he has high character qualities. He could be the answer to our edge rush problems. But, do you think using the 3rd pick on a potential one down specialist is worth it?

There are legit questions about Allen vs. the run. He could potentially be a 3rd down specialist, while be a liability on 1st & 2nd.

I won’t hate the pick, but I’d take a trade down (you can still get Sweat or Burns in top 10), or Quinnen Williams over Allen.

I know Williams isn’t the headline position, but if you can actually get interior pressure on the QB, thats a rare asset to have. It doesn’t come along often. Look at what Donnald does for LA. He anchors the whole D. Remember when Kris Jenkins did for us when he was healthy?

Top 3 pick you take a kings random to trade out, or you take a 3 down blue chip player.

Just one note. Used to be as you said run downs are 1st and 2nd down. Yea, in our father's NFL environment. Now 1st and 2nd downs are going to have on average only one of those downs running and the other passing. So, lets say as usual 3rd down is the sure passing down requiring the best pass rushing skills. Then, if you can scheme it right, whether it is 1st or 2nd down, that down is more going to be needing that WOLB to cover and Allen is supposedly one of the best at covering in that zone especially TEs, which we haven't been able to cover since Jesus was a baby. Even Adams is rseally too small to consistently cover TEs across the league. So, my point is that Allen would be a 2 down OLB till he learns to use angling/leverage to play the run better, which i actually over time at LB in HS eventually did since you realize hitting straight up with much larger Olineman causes you to either lose most one on one battles or wear down quickly in the game.

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Same channel but with the missing athleticism scores Also, Josh Allen didn't do the vert at the combine or his prod day. So the below average explosive score seen here is probably an over estimation. There has to be a reason he didn't do it and it's not because he was going to jump through the roof.

Also note: per this same guy no edge has ever been a 3 time all pro with a 3 cone higher than 7.11 which would make Josh Allen the first if he achieved it

 

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23 minutes ago, CTM said:

 

Same channel but with the missing athleticism scores Also, Josh Allen didn't do the vert at the combine or his prod day. So the below average explosive score seen here is probably an over estimation. There has to be a reason he didn't do it and it's not because he was going to jump through the roof.

Also note: per this same guy no edge has ever been a 3 time all pro with a 3 cone higher than 7.1.

 

I don’t think that’s right... jared allen and cam wake for example 

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Another one of the reddit dudes correlates edge success to 3-cone and broad.  For success he looks for sub 7.2 in the 3 cone and 9.9 in the broad jump.  (Allen makes the 3-cone,  but not by much. He barely misses the broad (9.83).  Thing that shocked me was the tiny hands.  He is the only edge guy sub 9".   Is that a misprint?  My hands are bigger and I am 5'9".  Is it like Kevin Willis and his tiny feet?

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1 hour ago, UnknownJetFan said:

Just one note. Used to be as you said run downs are 1st and 2nd down. Yea, in our father's NFL environment. Now 1st and 2nd downs are going to have on average only one of those downs running and the other passing. So, lets say as usual 3rd down is the sure passing down requiring the best pass rushing skills. Then, if you can scheme it right, whether it is 1st or 2nd down, that down is more going to be needing that WOLB to cover and Allen is supposedly one of the best at covering in that zone especially TEs, which we haven't been able to cover since Jesus was a baby. Even Adams is rseally too small to consistently cover TEs across the league. So, my point is that Allen would be a 2 down OLB till he learns to use angling/leverage to play the run better, which i actually over time at LB in HS eventually did since you realize hitting straight up with much larger Olineman causes you to either lose most one on one battles or wear down quickly in the game.

Yea you bring up a good point about passing downs being the norm. But thise 1st/2nd down plays are a lot of quick pass “long handoffs.”

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1 hour ago, JetFreak89 said:

For those wondering, here is Bosa's. He has the athleticism scores necessary but his production on the field scores are really low. Joey Bosa had much better production. Nick compared to Barkevious Mingo....

 

 

Makes me nervous about Bosa.  They also  gave Quinnen Williams very high marks.  I didn't realize that Bosa had torn his ACL in High School.  Makes me start to think he might be injury prone.  

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2 hours ago, cant wait said:

I don’t think that’s right... jared allen and cam wake for example 

Yeah, I didn't reasearch which is why i said per the channel owner but what he actiually said was 7.11 which is what Allen ran. Briefly searched wake and couldn't find his 3 cone but his explosion #'s were through the roof

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3 hours ago, Adoni Beast said:

I like Josh Allen a lot. In addition to his skillset he has high character qualities. He could be the answer to our edge rush problems. But, do you think using the 3rd pick on a potential one down specialist is worth it?

There are legit questions about Allen vs. the run. He could potentially be a 3rd down specialist, while be a liability on 1st & 2nd.

I won’t hate the pick, but I’d take a trade down (you can still get Sweat or Burns in top 10), or Quinnen Williams over Allen.

I know Williams isn’t the headline position, but if you can actually get interior pressure on the QB, thats a rare asset to have. It doesn’t come along often. Look at what Donnald does for LA. He anchors the whole D. Remember when Kris Jenkins did for us when he was healthy?

Top 3 pick you take a kings random to trade out, or you take a 3 down blue chip player.

You have to hit the QB.   You aren't allowed to play pass defense, you can't hit the WR, you can't hit the TE.  You have to get sacks, and rush throws.

As for a 1 down specialist, pretty much every team throws a lot more than they run, so a pass rusher will be on the field a lot more then a run stopper.

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1 hour ago, Bruce Harper said:

Makes me nervous about Bosa.  They also  gave Quinnen Williams very high marks.  I didn't realize that Bosa had torn his ACL in High School.  Makes me start to think he might be injury prone.  

He is injury prone.  So is his brother.

The best ability is availability. 

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8 hours ago, nico002 said:

First watch this video on why Dion Jordan failed: 

 

Then look at the same analysis for Josh Allen: 

 

 

Summary: The guy looks as a stat called “share of production” that measures what percentage of the teams sacks/tackles for loss/etc come from the player. Deion Jordan had huge red flags in this area while Allen looks to project to a future all pro. I thought this was interesting since the biggest knock on Allen’s production is that he “lucked” into a bunch of open lane sacks- the fact that he seems to be the only one on his team to benefit from this makes his production seems much more legit.

If this winds up being true I’ll eat my crow on knocking him for open lane sacks. I’m warming up......ever so slightly.

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15 minutes ago, chirorob said:

You have to hit the QB.   You aren't allowed to play pass defense, you can't hit the WR, you can't hit the TE.  You have to get sacks, and rush throws.

As for a 1 down specialist, pretty much every team throws a lot more than they run, so a pass rusher will be on the field a lot more then a run stopper.

Q Williams is much more than just a run stuffer. He can collapse the pocket head on and get to the QB. There are fair concerns about Q just as there are about Josh Allen. 

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25 minutes ago, CTM said:

Yeah, I didn't reasearch which is why i said per the channel owner but what he actiually said was 7.11 which is what Allen ran. Briefed searched wake and couldn't find although his explosion #'s were through the roof

yeah the old waldo formula for “low risk” pass rushers was a twitch rating under 1.1 and the 3 cone under 7 and/or explosive power over 1.05 so wake would fall in the latter bucket

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28 minutes ago, cant wait said:

yeah the old waldo formula for “low risk” pass rushers was a twitch rating under 1.1 and the 3 cone under 7 and/or explosive power over 1.05 so wake would fall in the latter bucket

Exactly, neither of these guys hit those benchmarks which makes me want to move down even more 

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9 hours ago, Philc1 said:

 I love the criticism that he just got sacks because of his quickness. So? 

I agree with you that this criticism is stupid. I think the idea behind it, or at least my impression from what I've heard, is that his sacks are related to his quickness compared to his level of college competition. More specifically how he (supposedly) won't be as effective against NFL level athletes. The same way they talk about some players overwhelming college opponents with their strength/bull rush and not being able to do that in the pros 

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This is a great data point.  And focuses on a question that people often have generally in life.....Is it luck or skill?  When something tends to happen over and over it becomes difficult to call it luck.  If he were only successful vs. one type of offense, when rushing from one particular spot, or only on 3rd and long, then there would be concerns.  When an offense defends against outside pass rushers pretty well....but in a game vs. Kentucky they can't stop Josh Allen, that says something.

He was a 3 year starter


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5 hours ago, CTM said:

Exactly, neither of these guys hit those benchmarks which makes me want to move down even more 

I think you’re overthinking a bit with allen. he’s been projected a top 3 lock for the whole draft season and you can guarantee his agent is in his ear telling him how to play it. he did what he needed to at the combine- yes of course we would like to see him try to shave off a point or 2 at his pro day but at this point he’s got more to lose than gain from running again. especially since bosa stood on his numbers he’s smart to not even risk it

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10 hours ago, cant wait said:

I think you’re overthinking a bit with allen. he’s been projected a top 3 lock for the whole draft season and you can guarantee his agent is in his ear telling him how to play it. he did what he needed to at the combine- yes of course we would like to see him try to shave off a point or 2 at his pro day but at this point he’s got more to lose than gain from running again. especially since bosa stood on his numbers he’s smart to not even risk it

DIsagree, I'm not over thinking it. His athleticism #'s indicate he's a long shot to be an elite pass rusher. Fine if I was picking mid round but not at 1.3 whenever there is a potential multi pick coup available. Simple. Overthinking is watching tape and saying this guy will be the outlier to prove the athleticism benchmarks wrong.

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11 hours ago, MichaelScott said:

I agree with you that this criticism is stupid. I think the idea behind it, or at least my impression from what I've heard, is that his sacks are related to his quickness compared to his level of college competition. More specifically how he (supposedly) won't be as effective against NFL level athletes. The same way they talk about some players overwhelming college opponents with their strength/bull rush and not being able to do that in the pros 

The most important trait for an NFL edge rusher is that bend and agility to cut down the angle to the QB.

You can see it right away. Tackles will attempt to push you past the pocket and you need to cut that angle down without losing your balance. 

Alllen has that. Bosa doesn't. 

The next most important trait is feeling what the tackle is trying to do and countering it with your body and hands. Bosa has that but Allen does not...yet.  

Bosa will be very good. Allen may be great or may bust. Allen could always play off the ball if he fails as a pass rusher.

 

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1 hour ago, CTM said:

DIsagree, I'm not over thinking it. His athleticism #'s indicate he's a long shot to be an elite pass rusher. Fine if I was picking mid round but not at 1.3 whenever there is a potential multi pick coup available. Simple. Overthinking is watching tape and saying this guy will be the outlier to prove the athleticism benchmarks wrong.

LOL ok buddy. you’re literally taking all the tape, all the metrics that show the high twitch score and throwing it all in the trash because you read on some bogus random post that nobody with a 3 cone above 7.1 has ever been a 3x all pro

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1 hour ago, CTM said:

DIsagree, I'm not over thinking it. His athleticism #'s indicate he's a long shot to be an elite pass rusher. Fine if I was picking mid round but not at 1.3 whenever there is a potential multi pick coup available. Simple. Overthinking is watching tape and saying this guy will be the outlier to prove the athleticism benchmarks wrong.

Do we know yet who the most athletic of the top pass rushers are?  Do guys like Ferrell or Sweat check more boxes than Allen?

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