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Analysis: Edge Rusher and Sacks are Irrelevant to Going to Super Bowl


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Nice work johnnysd 

Interesting viewpoint supported by some interesting stats, would like to see it go back another decade to see if the trend has changed over time plus 4 of the last 5 SB's have been tainted by bb

In that one exception year, Von Miller was the difference, in the Super Bowl game especially,  only game I have watched of the 5 since it was not tainted but the pass rush crushed Cam

if you don't have a top 10 offense (point per game) you need a great pass rush, or turnovers or ???

If I think back to that crappy 9 win Giants team, won the Super Bowl with a bit of both (sadly another tainted game) but could be on to something...

We also know none of the top 5 big WR's (I think only 1 of the top 10) have won the big game in recent years so that has not been the answer since Jerry Rice and he had great QB's

Not just OL either, Cowboys have not made it there yet with great OL and RB...

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6 minutes ago, Ohio State NY Jets fan said:

Nice work johnnysd 

Interesting viewpoint supported by some interesting stats, would like to see it go back another decade to see if the trend has changed over time plus 4 of the last 5 SB's have been tainted by bb

In that one exception year, Von Miller was the difference, in the Super Bowl game especially,  only game I have watched of the 5 since it was not tainted but the pass rush crushed Cam

if you don't have a top 10 offense (point per game) you need a great pass rush, or turnovers or ???

If I think back to that crappy 9 win Giants team, won the Super Bowl with a bit of both (sadly another tainted game) but could be on to something...

We also know none of the top 5 big WR's (I think only 1 of the top 10) have won the big game in recent years so that has not been the answer since Jerry Rice and he had great QB's

Not just OL either, Cowboys have not made it there yet with great OL and RB...

I realize people will just ignore and be all "edge rusher" still. I do need to go back another 5 years and see if it holds up, but tired now. I think the whole edge rusher thing is just completely overblown in importance. Not saying that I dont want one, but I do not think it moves the bar anywhere near  what people think. We certainly remember the Von Miller performance and it is etched in our memory but maybe the exception not the rule. If someone wins the super bowl by rushing for 250 yards it doesnt all of a sudden mean RB is the most valuable position.

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42 minutes ago, BurnleyJet said:

Yes and that Pats D didn’t Win New England the Super Bowl? - How many points did the Rams score again.. If your building a team to dominate I want QB and Edge Rusher.

No evidence in at least the last 5 years point to that being important, or that teams with an Edge Rusher dominate anything. 

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2 hours ago, johnnysd said:

All I have been hearing lately is how important "Edge Rushers" are and how vital sacks are to winning, so I did some research to see if that is true. I looked at 5 years and stats show that having a Top Edge Rusher or having a team with a lot of stats is almost completely unrelated to getting to the SB outside of a one outlier season.

Sacks are flashy. They are like a mini turnover and are exciting. But they really have little relation to success in the NFL.

From a team perspective, there is only about a 14 sack difference between #1 and middle of the pack. Less than 1 a game: 2018:13 2017:18 2016:14 2015:14 2014:15

So lets look at total sack rankings for the last 5 Super Bowls:

TOTAL SACKS, TEAM

2018: NE 30th, Rams 15th 

2017: NE T7th Phil T15th

2016 Both T16th

2015 DEN #1 CAR #6

2014: NE 13th SEA 20th 

CONCLUSION: So for the last 10 Super Bowl teams, only 3 have been Top 10 and 1 has been #1. The 2015 Denver team did have Peyton Manning but Denver did win the SB on QB pressure and sacks

2015 definitely the outlier here as both were Top 10 teams in sacks, But only 1 in the other 4 Super Bowls. Not a very high attach rate at all. Mostly average teams in sacks are making the SB

TOP 10 SACK LEADERS

But what about those elite sack "edge" guys so coveted? Lets look at the number of Top 10 sack guys in the last 5 Super Bowls

2018: Aaron Donald #1  Interestingly not an "edge guy". But did the Rams make the SB because of Donald??

2017: 0

2016: 0

2015: Von Miller, Short both T8th

2014: 0 - Interestingly, the two best sack guys in the SB were #26 and #36 in the NFL

CONCLUSION: Again on the last 10 SB teams, only 3 Top 10 pass rushers played. Again 2015 is the outlier with 2, and Donald sticks out because he was #1 but likely not why they made the Super Bowl. Very low attach rate here as well.

What does matter?

OFFENSE AND QBS

Let's look at PTS/G averages for the last 10 SB participants:

2018: #2 and #4

2017: #2 and #3

2016: #11 and #3

2015 #16 and #11

2014: #4 and #10

CONCLUSION: Strong correlation here. 7 of the last 10 teams in the SB were in the Top 10 in PTS/G. If we extend that only 1 spot, only a single team was not in the Top 11 in offense for that year. This is very meaningful. Essentially if you are not a Top 10 offense in the NFL your odds of making the SB are very, very slim

We all know that QBs are the most important player in football. Do the numbers bear that out:

QB TOTAL QBR

2018: Brady 6th. Goff 10th

2017 Brady 3rd, Wentz 1st *(obviously Foles played in the playoffs and SB but his QB play essentially won the SB and Philly got there in great part because of Wentz)

2016 Ryan 1st, Brady 3rd

2015 Newton #11 Osweiler 20th/ Manning 28th

2014 Brady #3 Wilson #6

CONCLUSION: What you would expect. Top 10 QBs get to the SB. Again 2015 is the outlier, and these stats are skewed by Brady showing up so much, but you can't deny he is the main player reason NE gets to the SB.

OVERALL THOUGHTS: SACKS ARE SERIOUSLY OVERRATED, THE NFL IS ALL ABOUT QB and OFFENSE

Recent history suggests that sacks, both from a team perspective and from an individual standpoint are really not directly related AT ALL to making the SB. In fact the difference from average to Top Team sacks is less than one a game. With only 3 teams or 30% of teams with top sacks even getting to the Super Bowl, you could make a good argument that even if you are already average at sacks, adding a player that adds 10 additional sacks won't really increase your odds on getting to the SB.. In terms of the Jets, we have not been horrible at sacks, usually around middle of the pack, 15th last year. So the thought that adding a Bosa or Allen to the Jets will increase odds of wins and getting to the SB are weak at best. It just doesn't seem to track.

Offense does however. As mentioned you pretty much need to be Top 11 in offense to make the SB.  We were 23rd last year with 20.8 points per game. To get to #11 is 4.3 points a game, #10 5.1 points per game. So our offense needs to be almost two FGs a game better. Or looked at a different way, our offense needs to be 25% better

We all expect Darnold to be better, and we have Bell and Crowder, but if we really want to make the SB we need Darnold be a Top 10 guy in Total QBR and our offense to be Top 10, so we really really need to focus on improving the offense as much as possible.  Bosa, QW or Allen are not going to move the bar as much as improving our offense, so i(f possible) historical evidence shows we should try and trade down, shore up the OL and try to get another playmaker

Thoughts on 2015 season: It is totally an outlier. I havent had the chance to see if a significant rule change happened in 2016, or if weather played a huge role in the playoffs that year, but you can look at that season and see that it might have been the passing of the guard from defense winning Championships to offense winning championships.

When you look at it objectively all the attention paid to "edge" rushers, and statements like "2nd most important player on the field" just don't hold water. Disclaimer: I realize this is not rigorous statistical analysis but it does some simple correlations.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dude 

We already got Darnold. Now should add other nice things

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2 hours ago, johnnysd said:

All I have been hearing lately is how important "Edge Rushers" are and how vital sacks are to winning, so I did some research to see if that is true. I looked at 5 years and stats show that having a Top Edge Rusher or having a team with a lot of stats is almost completely unrelated to getting to the SB outside of a one outlier season.

Sacks are flashy. They are like a mini turnover and are exciting. But they really have little relation to success in the NFL.

From a team perspective, there is only about a 14 sack difference between #1 and middle of the pack. Less than 1 a game: 2018:13 2017:18 2016:14 2015:14 2014:15

So lets look at total sack rankings for the last 5 Super Bowls:

TOTAL SACKS, TEAM

2018: NE 30th, Rams 15th 

2017: NE T7th Phil T15th

2016 Both T16th

2015 DEN #1 CAR #6

2014: NE 13th SEA 20th 

CONCLUSION: So for the last 10 Super Bowl teams, only 3 have been Top 10 and 1 has been #1. The 2015 Denver team did have Peyton Manning but Denver did win the SB on QB pressure and sacks

2015 definitely the outlier here as both were Top 10 teams in sacks, But only 1 in the other 4 Super Bowls. Not a very high attach rate at all. Mostly average teams in sacks are making the SB

TOP 10 SACK LEADERS

But what about those elite sack "edge" guys so coveted? Lets look at the number of Top 10 sack guys in the last 5 Super Bowls

2018: Aaron Donald #1  Interestingly not an "edge guy". But did the Rams make the SB because of Donald??

2017: 0

2016: 0

2015: Von Miller, Short both T8th

2014: 0 - Interestingly, the two best sack guys in the SB were #26 and #36 in the NFL

CONCLUSION: Again on the last 10 SB teams, only 3 Top 10 pass rushers played. Again 2015 is the outlier with 2, and Donald sticks out because he was #1 but likely not why they made the Super Bowl. Very low attach rate here as well.

What does matter?

OFFENSE AND QBS

Let's look at PTS/G averages for the last 10 SB participants:

2018: #2 and #4

2017: #2 and #3

2016: #11 and #3

2015 #16 and #11

2014: #4 and #10

CONCLUSION: Strong correlation here. 7 of the last 10 teams in the SB were in the Top 10 in PTS/G. If we extend that only 1 spot, only a single team was not in the Top 11 in offense for that year. This is very meaningful. Essentially if you are not a Top 10 offense in the NFL your odds of making the SB are very, very slim

We all know that QBs are the most important player in football. Do the numbers bear that out:

QB TOTAL QBR

2018: Brady 6th. Goff 10th

2017 Brady 3rd, Wentz 1st *(obviously Foles played in the playoffs and SB but his QB play essentially won the SB and Philly got there in great part because of Wentz)

2016 Ryan 1st, Brady 3rd

2015 Newton #11 Osweiler 20th/ Manning 28th

2014 Brady #3 Wilson #6

CONCLUSION: What you would expect. Top 10 QBs get to the SB. Again 2015 is the outlier, and these stats are skewed by Brady showing up so much, but you can't deny he is the main player reason NE gets to the SB.

OVERALL THOUGHTS: SACKS ARE SERIOUSLY OVERRATED, THE NFL IS ALL ABOUT QB and OFFENSE

Recent history suggests that sacks, both from a team perspective and from an individual standpoint are really not directly related AT ALL to making the SB. In fact the difference from average to Top Team sacks is less than one a game. With only 3 teams or 30% of teams with top sacks even getting to the Super Bowl, you could make a good argument that even if you are already average at sacks, adding a player that adds 10 additional sacks won't really increase your odds on getting to the SB.. In terms of the Jets, we have not been horrible at sacks, usually around middle of the pack, 15th last year. So the thought that adding a Bosa or Allen to the Jets will increase odds of wins and getting to the SB are weak at best. It just doesn't seem to track.

Offense does however. As mentioned you pretty much need to be Top 11 in offense to make the SB.  We were 23rd last year with 20.8 points per game. To get to #11 is 4.3 points a game, #10 5.1 points per game. So our offense needs to be almost two FGs a game better. Or looked at a different way, our offense needs to be 25% better

We all expect Darnold to be better, and we have Bell and Crowder, but if we really want to make the SB we need Darnold be a Top 10 guy in Total QBR and our offense to be Top 10, so we really really need to focus on improving the offense as much as possible.  Bosa, QW or Allen are not going to move the bar as much as improving our offense, so i(f possible) historical evidence shows we should try and trade down, shore up the OL and try to get another playmaker

Thoughts on 2015 season: It is totally an outlier. I havent had the chance to see if a significant rule change happened in 2016, or if weather played a huge role in the playoffs that year, but you can look at that season and see that it might have been the passing of the guard from defense winning Championships to offense winning championships.

When you look at it objectively all the attention paid to "edge" rushers, and statements like "2nd most important player on the field" just don't hold water. Disclaimer: I realize this is not rigorous statistical analysis but it does some simple correlations.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

pretty much agree with this.  what i think is most of these top edge guys also benefit from the guys playing next to them. football is a team oriented game so just having an edge rusher isn't going to solve much.  and as was pointed out, the edge rushers this past playoff season were very much negated by the olines.  also the offense always has the advantage because they know what way the play is supposed to go so it's more important to have the oline guys who can execute the plays than an edge rusher.

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1 hour ago, johnnysd said:

No evidence in at least the last 5 years point to that being important, or that teams with an Edge Rusher dominate anything. 

It’s like a recipe, a heavy blob of pass rush in the recipe helps the whole thing work. It’s disingenuous to say otherwise. 

So if having a top pass rusher helps win a super bowl in the next couple of years, does that mean it’s all of sudden important again? - It’s called a trend, and not a sea change.

Even with the fuzzy logic it’s so irrelevant that it still affects 30% of Super Bowl appearances.

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This thread is proof that stats are bullsh*t. You give a QB all day to throw and you will lose the game. The Jets are living proof of it and look at any team with a losing record and I guarantee you that they are in the bottom third of the League in sacks and QB hurries. Boggles the mind how you can skew anything with stats and studies.

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2 hours ago, johnnysd said:

CONCLUSION: What you would expect. Top 10 QBs get to the SB. Again 2015 is the outlier, and these stats are skewed by Brady showing up so much, but you can't deny he is the main player reason NE gets to the SB.

OVERALL THOUGHTS: SACKS ARE SERIOUSLY OVERRATED, THE NFL IS ALL ABOUT QB and OFFENSE

No one disputes that the QB is the most important position on a football team. Weird to dispute that disrupting the play of the opposing team's QB is important, though. Pass rush isn't all about sack numbers. Pressures, QB hits, tipped balls, or just throwing off a QB's timing are all important, IMHO. 

Is there another position besides QB that is consistently a major factor in Super Bowl appearances? Because while it's all about offense, you don't see a lot of "true #1" WRs or rushing leaders in the Super Bowl, either, that I can recall. Is this an argument to reach with the third pick in the draft if they can't get a trade down? If so, for what?

Just seems like simple logic to me that if helping my QB is important, hindering the other team's QB is important, too. So if I'm choosing between a stud pass rusher and a WR/RB/OL a tier below, I should probably take the stud (and I'm not pretending to know that for sure, but that would seem to be the consensus opinion in this draft). 

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41 minutes ago, slats said:

Is there another position besides QB that is consistently a major factor in Super Bowl appearances? Because while it's all about offense, you don't see a lot of "true #1" WRs or rushing leaders in the Super Bowl, either, that I can recall. Is this an argument to reach with the third pick in the draft if they can't get a trade down? If so, for what?

There's 100 ways to win in the NFL and 95 of them start with a top-quartile QB.

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19 minutes ago, CTJetsFan said:

Good job. Makes for an interesting discussion. I'd be interested to see where the SB teams ranked in terms of QB Pressures and not necessarily sacks.

I'd be surprised if the two were not closely positively correlated.

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To win a Super Bowl, the Jets must first win the AFCE.  I still can't tell when Brady will be finished.   Until that day comes, pressure up the middle is how you beat him.  Quinnen Williams is the answer to that problem.

And my opinion is that Belichick is so accomplished, if he finds even another good QB, New England will continue to be formidable as long as he remains the HC.   The assumption that it will end when Brady retires is premature. 

The stats the OP provided are interesting.   But it is hard to win 11 or 12 games, the required amount to host playoff games, if you dont get to the opposing QB.  

 

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2 hours ago, JetFaninMI said:

This thread is proof that stats are bullsh*t. You give a QB all day to throw and you will lose the game. The Jets are living proof of it and look at any team with a losing record and I guarantee you that they are in the bottom third of the League in sacks and QB hurries. Boggles the mind how you can skew anything with stats and studies.

The one sentence in bold is as good a retort as there is in the thread.  4 or 5 seconds to throw and most backup QBs looks like all-pros.

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37 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

It's more to the point is the Jets have been horrible in this category that everyone is all over Allen and Bosa. We also play in a division with the Pat's where the best way to rattle Beady is hit him a lot. 

Exactly

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5 hours ago, johnnysd said:

All I have been hearing lately is how important "Edge Rushers" are and how vital sacks are to winning, so I did some research to see if that is true. I looked at 5 years and stats show that having a Top Edge Rusher or having a team with a lot of stats is almost completely unrelated to getting to the SB outside of a one outlier season.

Sacks are flashy. They are like a mini turnover and are exciting. But they really have little relation to success in the NFL.

From a team perspective, there is only about a 14 sack difference between #1 and middle of the pack. Less than 1 a game: 2018:13 2017:18 2016:14 2015:14 2014:15

So lets look at total sack rankings for the last 5 Super Bowls:

TOTAL SACKS, TEAM

2018: NE 30th, Rams 15th 

2017: NE T7th Phil T15th

2016 Both T16th

2015 DEN #1 CAR #6

2014: NE 13th SEA 20th 

CONCLUSION: So for the last 10 Super Bowl teams, only 3 have been Top 10 and 1 has been #1. The 2015 Denver team did have Peyton Manning but Denver did win the SB on QB pressure and sacks

2015 definitely the outlier here as both were Top 10 teams in sacks, But only 1 in the other 4 Super Bowls. Not a very high attach rate at all. Mostly average teams in sacks are making the SB

TOP 10 SACK LEADERS

But what about those elite sack "edge" guys so coveted? Lets look at the number of Top 10 sack guys in the last 5 Super Bowls

2018: Aaron Donald #1  Interestingly not an "edge guy". But did the Rams make the SB because of Donald??

2017: 0

2016: 0

2015: Von Miller, Short both T8th

2014: 0 - Interestingly, the two best sack guys in the SB were #26 and #36 in the NFL

CONCLUSION: Again on the last 10 SB teams, only 3 Top 10 pass rushers played. Again 2015 is the outlier with 2, and Donald sticks out because he was #1 but likely not why they made the Super Bowl. Very low attach rate here as well.

What does matter?

OFFENSE AND QBS

Let's look at PTS/G averages for the last 10 SB participants:

2018: #2 and #4

2017: #2 and #3

2016: #11 and #3

2015 #16 and #11

2014: #4 and #10

CONCLUSION: Strong correlation here. 7 of the last 10 teams in the SB were in the Top 10 in PTS/G. If we extend that only 1 spot, only a single team was not in the Top 11 in offense for that year. This is very meaningful. Essentially if you are not a Top 10 offense in the NFL your odds of making the SB are very, very slim

We all know that QBs are the most important player in football. Do the numbers bear that out:

QB TOTAL QBR

2018: Brady 6th. Goff 10th

2017 Brady 3rd, Wentz 1st *(obviously Foles played in the playoffs and SB but his QB play essentially won the SB and Philly got there in great part because of Wentz)

2016 Ryan 1st, Brady 3rd

2015 Newton #11 Osweiler 20th/ Manning 28th

2014 Brady #3 Wilson #6

CONCLUSION: What you would expect. Top 10 QBs get to the SB. Again 2015 is the outlier, and these stats are skewed by Brady showing up so much, but you can't deny he is the main player reason NE gets to the SB.

OVERALL THOUGHTS: SACKS ARE SERIOUSLY OVERRATED, THE NFL IS ALL ABOUT QB and OFFENSE

Recent history suggests that sacks, both from a team perspective and from an individual standpoint are really not directly related AT ALL to making the SB. In fact the difference from average to Top Team sacks is less than one a game. With only 3 teams or 30% of teams with top sacks even getting to the Super Bowl, you could make a good argument that even if you are already average at sacks, adding a player that adds 10 additional sacks won't really increase your odds on getting to the SB.. In terms of the Jets, we have not been horrible at sacks, usually around middle of the pack, 15th last year. So the thought that adding a Bosa or Allen to the Jets will increase odds of wins and getting to the SB are weak at best. It just doesn't seem to track.

Offense does however. As mentioned you pretty much need to be Top 11 in offense to make the SB.  We were 23rd last year with 20.8 points per game. To get to #11 is 4.3 points a game, #10 5.1 points per game. So our offense needs to be almost two FGs a game better. Or looked at a different way, our offense needs to be 25% better

We all expect Darnold to be better, and we have Bell and Crowder, but if we really want to make the SB we need Darnold be a Top 10 guy in Total QBR and our offense to be Top 10, so we really really need to focus on improving the offense as much as possible.  Bosa, QW or Allen are not going to move the bar as much as improving our offense, so i(f possible) historical evidence shows we should try and trade down, shore up the OL and try to get another playmaker

Thoughts on 2015 season: It is totally an outlier. I havent had the chance to see if a significant rule change happened in 2016, or if weather played a huge role in the playoffs that year, but you can look at that season and see that it might have been the passing of the guard from defense winning Championships to offense winning championships.

When you look at it objectively all the attention paid to "edge" rushers, and statements like "2nd most important player on the field" just don't hold water. Disclaimer: I realize this is not rigorous statistical analysis but it does some simple correlations.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pierre Paul, Von Miller and their Super Bowl wins over the Pats say hi

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Just now, nico002 said:

How many edge rushers in the last 20 years have been worth the #3 pick? I can think of one... (Von Miller)

Myles Garrett, Julius Peppers, Mario Williams, our own John Abraham if they did a 2000 redraft he’d be drafted top 3

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44 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Say what you will about the Rams’ Super Bowl performance, but they loaded up on pass rushers for a reason. Even WITH Donald on the roster, they went out and grabbed Suh and Dante Fowler.

 

They did this because they understand this simple truth: Once you have a QB, one of the top priorities is trying to stop the other QB on the field and get the ball back to your offense. And the best way to do that is by putting pressure on the QB without always having to rely on blitzes and “out-scheming” the other coach. It may not always lead to a bunch of sacks, but it can definitely lead to some bad decisions by the opposing QB.

 

So you see, the Rams were ultimately smart to invest in multiple pass rushers. Meanwhile, our best pass rusher is Brandon Copeland. Good luck with that, Gregg Williams.

People also put too much stock on making determinations based on “who won” the superbowl, when really it is a single elimination tournament. sure it is not truly random because skill is involved, but there are so many variables outside of how good teams are to draw a pretty large assumption like is being made by OP here of the data being presented as evidence. 

If anything, the trends of offenses season to season should tell you most of the story. I haven’t checked, but i’d be pretty sure that The top offensive teams usually make the playoffs, more qbs at the top are having higher passing yards each season, and there are fewer cumulative rushing yards each season than there was in the past. 

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4 minutes ago, nico002 said:

How many edge rushers in the last 20 years have been worth the #3 pick? I can think of one... (Von Miller)

Julius Peppers.  Justin Smith.  Chris Long.  Mario Williams.  Khalil Mack.  Joey Bosa (28.5 sacks in 35 games).  Clowney has 29 sacks and just got franchise tagged by the team that drafted him.  So far, Myles Garrett has been worth the 2017 # 1 pick (20.5 sacks, 4 FF, 1 FR, 4 PD, 47 QB Hits, 21 TFL).  Bradley Chubb was taken 5th last year, and put up 12 sacks. 

Suh isn't an edge rusher, but since he's a pass-rushing DT, I'd include him in that analysis too. 

Well that one was easy.  Got anything else you need from me?  If not I'll get back to my day job.

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