Analysis: Edge Rusher and Sacks are Irrelevant to Going to Super Bowl

[RoadFan]

16 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

A lot of people have transitioned the discussion to "pressures" instead of sacks. The stat is super difficult to find. There is a Buffalo reporter that collates the pressure data during the season so I was able to find stats for 2018. Not sure why the top column is not aligned.

Pressures	Drop Backs faced	Pressure Rate
Los Angeles Rams	241	601	40.09983361
Philadelphia Eagles	279	703	39.68705548
Jacksonville Jaguars	207	548	37.77372263
Baltimore Ravens	241	640	37.65625
Chicago Bears	258	691	37.33719247
Buffalo Bills	203	547	37.11151737
Pittsburgh Steelers	233	638	36.52037618
Minnesota Vikings	213	585	36.41025641
Green Bay Packers	215	598	35.95317726
Kansas City Chiefs	251	701	35.80599144
New England Patriots	236	664	35.54216867
New York Jets	230	649	35.43913713
Carolina Panthers	205	592	34.62837838
San Francisco 49ers	210	608	34.53947368
Washington Redskins	209	616	33.92857143
New Orleans Saints	220	653	33.6906585
Dallas Cowboys	205	613	33.44208809
Miami Dolphins	190	569	33.39191564
Los Angeles Chargers	205	616	33.27922078
Denver Broncos	201	606	33.16831683
Arizona Cardinals	185	579	31.95164076
New York Giants	197	617	31.9286872
Indianapolis Colts	191	607	31.46622735
Houston Texans	212	676	31.36094675
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	185	590	31.3559322
Seattle Seahawks	189	609	31.03448276
Cincinnati Bengals	197	640	30.78125
Cleveland Browns	209	694	30.11527378
Tennessee Titans	181	602	30.06644518
Atlanta Falcons	191	644	29.65838509
Detroit Lions	158	544	29.04411765
Oakland Raiders	120	514	23.3463035

Some interesting things to look at, keeping in mind these are stats for only one season :

The Rams were first, so maybe pressures do help to get to the SB.

That said though, the numbers are really packed, which would suggest maybe pressures is not that significant OR that just a couple extra a game is significant. But as bad as we think our pass rush is, we are solidly middle of the pack and only 2% from 3rd. If they are 70 offensive playes thats 1.5 pressures a game. Is that really all that game changing? I suspect not.

I truly believe we get seduced by games that ARE won by an edge rusher like Von Miller in the SB, the Giants rush over NE, but I am still not convinced at all that games tilting because of pass rush is really as big of a thing as people think.

The stats above except for the Raiders! (wonder why?) and the bottom 8 are pretty homogenous.

 

 

 

 

Really strong work you've done here...   Truly, thanks for posting and starting this thread.

[BroadwayRay]

22 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

A lot of people have transitioned the discussion to "pressures" instead of sacks. The stat is super difficult to find. There is a Buffalo reporter that collates the pressure data during the season so I was able to find stats for 2018. Not sure why the top column is not aligned.

Pressures	Drop Backs faced	Pressure Rate
Los Angeles Rams	241	601	40.09983361
Philadelphia Eagles	279	703	39.68705548
Jacksonville Jaguars	207	548	37.77372263
Baltimore Ravens	241	640	37.65625
Chicago Bears	258	691	37.33719247
Buffalo Bills	203	547	37.11151737
Pittsburgh Steelers	233	638	36.52037618
Minnesota Vikings	213	585	36.41025641
Green Bay Packers	215	598	35.95317726
Kansas City Chiefs	251	701	35.80599144
New England Patriots	236	664	35.54216867
New York Jets	230	649	35.43913713
Carolina Panthers	205	592	34.62837838
San Francisco 49ers	210	608	34.53947368
Washington Redskins	209	616	33.92857143
New Orleans Saints	220	653	33.6906585
Dallas Cowboys	205	613	33.44208809
Miami Dolphins	190	569	33.39191564
Los Angeles Chargers	205	616	33.27922078
Denver Broncos	201	606	33.16831683
Arizona Cardinals	185	579	31.95164076
New York Giants	197	617	31.9286872
Indianapolis Colts	191	607	31.46622735
Houston Texans	212	676	31.36094675
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	185	590	31.3559322
Seattle Seahawks	189	609	31.03448276
Cincinnati Bengals	197	640	30.78125
Cleveland Browns	209	694	30.11527378
Tennessee Titans	181	602	30.06644518
Atlanta Falcons	191	644	29.65838509
Detroit Lions	158	544	29.04411765
Oakland Raiders	120	514	23.3463035

Some interesting things to look at, keeping in mind these are stats for only one season :

The Rams were first, so maybe pressures do help to get to the SB.

That said though, the numbers are really packed, which would suggest maybe pressures is not that significant OR that just a couple extra a game is significant. But as bad as we think our pass rush is, we are solidly middle of the pack and only 2% from 3rd. If they are 70 offensive playes thats 1.5 pressures a game. Is that really all that game changing? I suspect not.

I truly believe we get seduced by games that ARE won by an edge rusher like Von Miller in the SB, the Giants rush over NE, but I am still not convinced at all that games tilting because of pass rush is really as big of a thing as people think.

The stats above except for the Raiders! (wonder why?) and the bottom 8 are pretty homogenous.

 

 

 

 

Surprised to see the Browns so low on this list. I thought bringing pressure was Greg Williams' big thing.

[redlichtie]

6 hours ago, nico002 said:

How many edge rushers in the last 20 years have been worth the #3 pick? I can think of one... (Von Miller)

Mack

Garrett

[Villain The Foe]

1 hour ago, johnnysd said:

A lot of people have transitioned the discussion to "pressures" instead of sacks. The stat is super difficult to find. There is a Buffalo reporter that collates the pressure data during the season so I was able to find stats for 2018. Not sure why the top column is not aligned.

Pressures	Drop Backs faced	Pressure Rate
Los Angeles Rams	241	601	40.09983361
Philadelphia Eagles	279	703	39.68705548
Jacksonville Jaguars	207	548	37.77372263
Baltimore Ravens	241	640	37.65625
Chicago Bears	258	691	37.33719247
Buffalo Bills	203	547	37.11151737
Pittsburgh Steelers	233	638	36.52037618
Minnesota Vikings	213	585	36.41025641
Green Bay Packers	215	598	35.95317726
Kansas City Chiefs	251	701	35.80599144
New England Patriots	236	664	35.54216867
New York Jets	230	649	35.43913713
Carolina Panthers	205	592	34.62837838
San Francisco 49ers	210	608	34.53947368
Washington Redskins	209	616	33.92857143
New Orleans Saints	220	653	33.6906585
Dallas Cowboys	205	613	33.44208809
Miami Dolphins	190	569	33.39191564
Los Angeles Chargers	205	616	33.27922078
Denver Broncos	201	606	33.16831683
Arizona Cardinals	185	579	31.95164076
New York Giants	197	617	31.9286872
Indianapolis Colts	191	607	31.46622735
Houston Texans	212	676	31.36094675
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	185	590	31.3559322
Seattle Seahawks	189	609	31.03448276
Cincinnati Bengals	197	640	30.78125
Cleveland Browns	209	694	30.11527378
Tennessee Titans	181	602	30.06644518
Atlanta Falcons	191	644	29.65838509
Detroit Lions	158	544	29.04411765
Oakland Raiders	120	514	23.3463035

Some interesting things to look at, keeping in mind these are stats for only one season :

The Rams were first, so maybe pressures do help to get to the SB.

That said though, the numbers are really packed, which would suggest maybe pressures is not that significant OR that just a couple extra a game is significant. But as bad as we think our pass rush is, we are solidly middle of the pack and only 2% from 3rd. If they are 70 offensive playes thats 1.5 pressures a game. Is that really all that game changing? I suspect not.

I truly believe we get seduced by games that ARE won by an edge rusher like Von Miller in the SB, the Giants rush over NE, but I am still not convinced at all that games tilting because of pass rush is really as big of a thing as people think.

The stats above except for the Raiders! (wonder why?) and the bottom 8 are pretty homogenous.

 

 

 

 

This is good info here, but overall it's an inexact science. 

4 of the top 5 teams on the list were playoff teams, yet from 5-10 4 of those teams weren't playoff teams yet #10 Kansas City made it to the AFCCG. #11 won it all in the Patriots, against the team who was #1 on the list which were the Rams.  

And ironically, the NY Jets are right behind the SB winners at #12 which CLEARLY SHOWS that maybe pass rush isnt as dire as scoring given that we're 12th in pressures but in the bottom 10 in scoring offense. 

I will bet $10 right now that the reason why we lost so many games and didn't make the playoffs is because other teams outscored us! lol. 

 

But moving along, The NO Saints are in the middle of the pack at #16 yet they made it to the NFCCG themselves. Granted, they have Cameron Jordan, who is a top rusher in this league...but we all know that it's the Saints offense that really sets the winning culture there. 

The Denver Broncos sit at number 20...yet they had two bookend DE's in Chubb and Miller. This is also a team that didn't make it to the playoffs though they signed a QB who the year before made it to the NFCCG with the Vikes. 

The Colts made the playoffs, and they're ranked #23. You know how they made the playoffs? #1. They drafted an ALL-PRO GUARD to protect Luck, and after starting the season 1-5, the offense finally "clicked" and down the stretch the Colts went 9-1, thanks to that offensive line keeping Luck upright, but most importantly, Frank Reich implementing a powerful rushing attack that the Colts have been missing for years. 

 

 

Pass rush is overrated. It's necessary....but the way folks have been thirsting for DE isnt warranted. Protect Darnold and let the pass rusher come to you when you have a more solidified offense. Sitting at #12 in pressures isnt bad for a team who's fans claim we cant get to the QB without Bosa/Allen.

 

[Defense Wins Championships]

An Edge Rusher is super important. The last time we had one was J.Abe and because of the trade of a pass rusher we landed Nick Mangold. 

It's a passing league. Best way to stop the pass is pressure the QB. 

If Bosa or Allen are there, it's a must @ #3. 

[SMC]

Good work, @johnnysd  Your analysis further reveals that in about 5 to 10 years, the truth will finally come out about the extent of the Patriots cheating.

In 2018, the Pats were 30th in Sacks and 11th in Pressure, but their players were unguardable against two of the best protecting teams in the NFL, the Chiefs and Rams.

All of a sudden, the Pats' mediocre defenders can't be blocked.

[CTM]

11 hours ago, slats said:

No one disputes that the QB is the most important position on a football team. Weird to dispute that disrupting the play of the opposing team's QB is important, though. Pass rush isn't all about sack numbers. Pressures, QB hits, tipped balls, or just throwing off a QB's timing are all important, IMHO. 

 

Long time back I remember a simple but widely available and strong correlation to winning was 1) Offensive ANY/A and 2) Defensive ANY/A, in that order. The more the league changes the rules to favor offense the less likely even good defenses can stop good offenses at all, making any defensive statistics less important. 

And before anyone points out a single game here or there remember that this past year 4  of the 5 best offenses were the top 4 seeds, and the one top 5 offense who wasn't a top seed was the LAC (#4) who were stuck behind the chiefs (#1). Winning SB's is about geting to SB's first and foremost, and the best way to get to SB's is to have a bye week and host playoff games. It's one reason the Pats get there so much, they play in a hapless division and coast to a 7-1 record nearly every year which gets them the first round bye and playoff home games.

[greenwave81]

2 hours ago, RoadFan said:

I think some are falling into this "must draft offense" mindset. 

In many ways, it is the correct line of thinking in today's game.   Most ways actually.

However, taking a blue chip defensive prospect at #3 does not mean Macc can't focus the remainder of the draft on offense.

I think the point most of us on the ‘draft offense’ side of the argument are hoping for a middle ground (ie trade) where you’d have the opportunity to draft both O and D with more picks than placed all our eggs in one basket for one player (though IMO if you draft your starting LT who plays there for the next decade plus, no ones gonna care if you got him at 3 other than the talking heads on draft day who will once again chide the NYJ as ‘not understanding the draft ;)’. 

Bosa as that ‘one player’ scares the crap out of me as he’s played 4 games last yr and is coming off significant season ending surgery on his core at a young age. QW was a no show against Clemson, yet supposedly he’s ‘unblockable’ according to some here...I don’t see it...I see Leo W part 2. If I had to stay at 3 and draft someone I’d take Allen if available, otherwise the best option is to trade down for the best deal you can get. ...OR, I wouldn’t argue with the NYJ drafting the top OL or WR on their board regardless where Mel Kiper has them rated. 

[bealeb319]

Teams that win the superbowl or make the playoffs frequently do not draft high which means they are less likely to have the top guy or two on their team it doesn't mean the position is not important

Sent from my LGUS991 using JetNation.com mobile app

[greenwave81]

1 hour ago, Defense Wins Championships said:

An Edge Rusher is super important. The last time we had one was J.Abe and because of the trade of a pass rusher we landed Nick Mangold. 

It's a passing league. Best way to stop the pass is pressure the QB. 

If Bosa or Allen are there, it's a must @ #3. 

I would argue differently, at least at this stage of development of the NYJ present roster. 

Having the ability to reliably put up more points on O than the opposing team is just as if not more important than an edge rusher. You said yourself...it’s a passing league...who’s Darnold passing to again?  Quincy (I cant stay healthy) Enunwa, Robbie ‘stick figure but I’m fast’ Anderson and Crowder. Maybe good, not a collection of all stars by any extent. Crowder the recent addition is probably going to more valuable than the two that were already here which says something about our WR corps. True, Bell will definitely help too, but if the Jets can’t run the ball effectively, and many times last yr we couldn’t, our O will suffer and repetitive 3 and outs suck. 

Yes, I want an edge rusher too...not saying it unimportant, but without a consistent offense it’s difficult for a team to survive in the modern NFL attempting to win games 13-10. 

Guess it’s a difference of opinion as to how to build a team from the ground up...offense first? Or defense?  It is debatable. 

[JohnnyLV]

4 minutes ago, greenwave81 said:

I would argue differently, at least at this stage of development of the NYJ present roster. 

Having the ability to reliably put up more points on O than the opposing team is just as if not more important than an edge rusher. You said yourself...it’s a passing league...who’s Darnold passing to again?  Quincy (I cant stay healthy) Enunwa, Robbie ‘stick figure but I’m fast’ Anderson and Crowder. Maybe good, not a collection of all stars by any extent. Crowder the recent addition is probably going to more valuable than the two that were already here which says something about our WR corps. True, Bell will definitely help too, but if the Jets can’t run the ball effectively, and many times last yr we couldn’t, our O will suffer and repetitive 3 and outs suck. 

Yes, I want an edge rusher too...not saying it unimportant, but without a consistent offense it’s difficult for a team to survive in the modern NFL attempting to win games 13-10. 

Guess it’s a difference of opinion as to how to build a team from the ground up...offense first? Or defense?  It is debatable. 

I believe a lot of Jets fans here will always have that defense first always run the ball mentality.

[Jetsfan80]

6 hours ago, jmat321 said:

Honestly I don’t give a chit about the defense anymore.  Rex, Bowles, Kyle Wilson, I’m done.  Give me an offense heavy draft.  We have an elite DC, he should be able to make due.  We have a 21 year old kid taking snaps, he needs the help more.

OK.  Which offensive player do you want in the 1st round?  Because other than QB, the JN mock going on right now only had 2 offensive players go in the top 10 (Jawaan Taylor at 6 and Jonah Williams at 9).

[greenwave81]

8 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

I believe a lot of Jets fans here will always have that defense first always run the ball mentality.

I know..it’s pathetic. I think we’ve had like ONE 1000 yd WR over the past decade plus...Marshall in 2015. Before that I think it was Cotchery in the mid-2000’s. Our O is pathetic and yet another DL/DT is supposedly the first thing needing fixing, even though we now have a hopefully FQB. SMDH. 

[Jetsfan80]

5 hours ago, Losmeister said:

fwiw, which i know is little...  i tend to fall on the whole GO FOR POINTS side of the arguments

Pass rush = turnovers + 3-and-outs = more possessions for Darnold = more points.

[greenwave81]

2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

OK.  Which offensive player do you want in the 1st round?  Because other than QB, the JN mock going on right now didn't have an offensive player go until 9th overall (Jonah Williams).

Not directed at me, but I’ll take a stab at it...

if you think Jonah can start at OT (preferably LT) for the next decade + to protect our FQB, take him. I don’t care what any talking head says  

You cannot find good OTs in FA (or you pay guys like Trent Brown questionable contracts), certainly less OTs hit FA than edge rushers and DTs. You have to draft OL, especially OT. WR too lol. 

[Jetsfan80]

55 minutes ago, SMC said:

Good work, @johnnysd  Your analysis further reveals that in about 5 to 10 years, the truth will finally come out about the extent of the Patriots cheating.

In 2018, the Pats were 30th in Sacks and 11th in Pressure, but their players were unguardable against two of the best protecting teams in the NFL, the Chiefs and Rams.

All of a sudden, the Pats' mediocre defenders can't be blocked.

Meanwhile, the Pats get away with holding all game on Donald, Suh and Fowler.

[JohnnyLV]

2 minutes ago, greenwave81 said:

Not directed at me, but I’ll take a stab at it...

if you think Jonah can start at OT (preferably LT) for the next decade + to protect our FQB, take him. I don’t care what any talking head says  

You cannot find good OTs in FA (or you pay guys like Trent Brown questionable contracts), certainly less OTs hit FA than edge rushers and DTs. You have to draft OL, especially OT. WR too lol. 

I completely agree with this. What does it matter if we pick him at 3 or 6? Salaries are slotted. If you feel he is a 10 year starter just take him, there is no opportunity cost no matter what the draft dorks say

[Jetsfan80]

4 minutes ago, greenwave81 said:

Not directed at me, but I’ll take a stab at it...

if you think Jonah can start at OT (preferably LT) for the next decade + to protect our FQB, take him. I don’t care what any talking head says  

You cannot find good OTs in FA (or you pay guys like Trent Brown questionable contracts), certainly less OTs hit FA than edge rushers and DTs. You have to draft OL, especially OT. WR too lol. 

And if he ends up an NFL Guard, it ends up a bad pick.  Especially if we pass on an elite pass rusher to take him.  It's that simple.

Unless you can guarantee me Jonah ends up a franchise LT (unlikely given his arm length and struggles with speed rushers in college), he's not worth the # 3 pick.  He's a good pick if we trade down, depending on where we end up.  

[greenwave81]

4 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Pass rush = turnovers + 3-and-outs = more possessions for Darnold = more points.

Less 3 and outs for the NYJ and jets scoring more points means our D on field less (how many times have us Jets fans complained about that??) so they can not get exhausted and disheartened by knowing that  if they give up more than 14 points the game is over  

How is Darnold going to score more points with the collection of players we have on offense right now?  I mean, I love Bell...but the OL leaves a lot to be desired and he’s not going to do it by himself. We can use another good/great WR...no?

some want us to try and win in the NFL the way the game is going, which is putting up points on a regular basis. 

Now, don’t get me wrong, I know some here think that the top 3 DL guys are lock-in difference makers   Color me not so sure...

[FidelioJet]

Okay. Who? Yeah, I know, trade down. Brilliant. Who?

Are you suggesting there are no good offensive players in the draft?



Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

24:25:31

[Jetsfan80]

7 minutes ago, greenwave81 said:

Less 3 and outs for the NYJ and jets scoring more points means our D on field less (how many times have us Jets fans complained about that??) so they can not get exhausted and disheartened by knowing that  if they give up more than 14 points the game is over  

How is Darnold going to score more points with the collection of players we have on offense right now?  I mean, I love Bell...but the OL leaves a lot to be desired and he’s not going to do it by himself. We can use another good/great WR...no?

some want us to try and win in the NFL the way the game is going, which is putting up points on a regular basis. 

Now, don’t get me wrong, I know some here think that the top 3 DL guys are lock-in difference makers   Color me not so sure...

Hey, I'd love to find a WR1 in the draft.  But if we can't, I think we're fine with Bell, Anderson, Q, Crowder, and Herndon. 

This thread is talking about how pass rusher doesn't matter much for SB winners.  Well, a true # 1 WR really doesn't seem to matter for SB winners, historically.  

The O-Line is the bigger need for sure, but the middle rounds should be fine for grabbing a Center.  And I don't think there are any franchise LT's in this year's crop of draftees.

[Jetsfan80]

7 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

 

Are you suggesting there are no good offensive players in the draft?
 

 

None worth taking at 3, for sure.  

[greenwave81]

11 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

And if he ends up an NFL Guard, it ends up a bad pick.  Especially if we pass on an elite pass rusher to take him.  It's that simple.

Unless you can guarantee me Jonah ends up a franchise LT (unlikely given his arm length and struggles with speed rushers in college), he's not worth the # 3 pick.  He's a good pick if we trade down, depending on where we end up.  

No, it’s not that simple....not at all. 

Of course he’d be more valuable if he planned out at LT...but if he was an all-pro OG who anchored the line for 10 + yrs, that’s somehow a loss? The Colts drafted an actual OG at 6 last year...think Colts/Luck would trade him or say he wasn’t worth the pick?

the game is now slanted toward the offense...OL are only going to become more expensive and hard to find. If you can find a 10 yr starter on OL (yes, preferably LT) no matter where you draft them you won IMO 

[Jetsfan80]

8 minutes ago, greenwave81 said:

No, it’s not that simple....not at all. 

Of course he’d be more valuable if he planned out at LT...but if he was an all-pro OG who anchored the line for 10 + yrs, that’s somehow a loss? The Colts drafted an actual OG at 6 last year...think Colts/Luck would trade him or say he wasn’t worth the pick?

the game is now slanted toward the offense...OL are only going to become more expensive and hard to find. If you can find a 10 yr starter on OL (yes, preferably LT) no matter where you draft them you won IMO 

Yes, it would be at # 3 overall, because a Guard can't "anchor" the line.  Only OT's can do that, particularly the LT.  You need only look at the difference in pay between the best guards and LT's to see that that's the case.  Only 3 Guards in the whole league make $12 million+ per season (Norwell, Martin, Zeitler).  13 LT's make $12M+.  

Now, if you could guarantee all of these pass rushers bust, maybe I'd be on board with a 10-year Pro Bowl G.  But you can't, so I won't.  

[greenwave81]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Yes, it would be at # 3 overall, because a Guard can't "anchor" the line.  Only OT's can do that, particularly the LT.  You need only look at the difference in pay between the best guards and LT's to see that that's the case.  Only 3 Guards in the whole league make $12 million+ per season (Norwell, Martin, Zeitler).  13 LT's make $12M+.  

Now, if you could guarantee all of these pass rushers bust, maybe I'd be on board with a 10-year Pro Bowl G.  But you can't, so I won't.  

There are no guarantees in the draft.  I cannot guarantee anything more than you can. Bosa may be another injury waiting to happen. Q may be Leo part 2.  Allen is a one year wonder from UK..who knows?

And now the NYJ somehow care about 'positional value'? Oh if that were true LOL. (and for the record, I DO care about positional value,,which is why drafting a safety at 6 was asinine, then following it up with another in round 2 as a LOL so Jetsy moment).

The same number of SS in the NFL make over $12 million as OG's....TWO...yet we had no problem drafting Adams at 6...hmmm...

At least Jonah would have the opportunity to prove himself  a more valuable asset at LT or RT while possibly having to 'settle' for being an OG...Adams will always be, just a SS.

[Jetsfan80]

23 minutes ago, greenwave81 said:

There are no guarantees in the draft.  I cannot guarantee anything more than you can. Bosa may be another injury waiting to happen. Q may be Leo part 2.  Allen is a one year wonder from UK..who knows?

And now the NYJ somehow care about 'positional value'? Oh if that were true LOL. (and for the record, I DO care about positional value,,which is why drafting a safety at 6 was asinine, then following it up with another in round 2 as a LOL so Jetsy moment).

The same number of SS in the NFL make over $12 million as OG's....TWO...yet we had no problem drafting Adams at 6...hmmm...

At least Jonah would have the opportunity to prove himself  a more valuable asset at LT or RT while possibly having to 'settle' for being an OG...Adams will always be, just a SS.

Positional value should ALWAYS matter.  But of course we're not the GM.

[FidelioJet]

2 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

None worth taking at 3, for sure.  

Which is why you trade down.

[jgb]

6 hours ago, Villain The Foe said:

This is good info here, but overall it's an inexact science. 

4 of the top 5 teams on the list were playoff teams, yet from 5-10 4 of those teams weren't playoff teams yet #10 Kansas City made it to the AFCCG. #11 won it all in the Patriots, against the team who was #1 on the list which were the Rams.  

And ironically, the NY Jets are right behind the SB winners at #12 which CLEARLY SHOWS that maybe pass rush isnt as dire as scoring given that we're 12th in pressures but in the bottom 10 in scoring offense. 

I will bet $10 right now that the reason why we lost so many games and didn't make the playoffs is because other teams outscored us! lol. 

 

But moving along, The NO Saints are in the middle of the pack at #16 yet they made it to the NFCCG themselves. Granted, they have Cameron Jordan, who is a top rusher in this league...but we all know that it's the Saints offense that really sets the winning culture there. 

The Denver Broncos sit at number 20...yet they had two bookend DE's in Chubb and Miller. This is also a team that didn't make it to the playoffs though they signed a QB who the year before made it to the NFCCG with the Vikes. 

The Colts made the playoffs, and they're ranked #23. You know how they made the playoffs? #1. They drafted an ALL-PRO GUARD to protect Luck, and after starting the season 1-5, the offense finally "clicked" and down the stretch the Colts went 9-1, thanks to that offensive line keeping Luck upright, but most importantly, Frank Reich implementing a powerful rushing attack that the Colts have been missing for years. 

 

 

Pass rush is overrated. It's necessary....but the way folks have been thirsting for DE isnt warranted. Protect Darnold and let the pass rusher come to you when you have a more solidified offense. Sitting at #12 in pressures isnt bad for a team who's fans claim we cant get to the QB without Bosa/Allen.

 

An independent variable and dependent variable do not have to enjoy an r value of 1.0 to be strongly positively correlated.

[HighPitch]

Hmmmm johnnysd did some research and gathered some data and made a reasonable conclusion.

maybe hes totally right. Or.......

maybe we should look at it like this: for the most part all 10 of the last SB teams were pretty much in the top HALF of sacks. Notice no team went to the superbowl ranked in the 20’s for sacks.

also, sack numbers dont tell the qb pressure story. Even if you were ranked 15 in sacks, who knows how much pressure that equates to and how much pressure resulted in thrown away balls.... which is almost as good as a sack

[Bugg]

QBR is a flawed stat that rewards 3rd and 8 dumpoffs and punishes throwing it away when the situation warrants. Sacks as the sole arbiter of a decent pass rush is also flawed; if you hurry a QB, thats' almost as good as as a sack. Not saying the OP is completely wrong, but football stats are not an either/or thing. Having watched jets' defenses never put any pressure on Tom Brady for going on 2 decades, think your analysis is simply not persuasive. 

[Sperm Edwards]

8 hours ago, Villain The Foe said:

This is good info here, but overall it's an inexact science. 

4 of the top 5 teams on the list were playoff teams, yet from 5-10 4 of those teams weren't playoff teams yet #10 Kansas City made it to the AFCCG. #11 won it all in the Patriots, against the team who was #1 on the list which were the Rams.  

And ironically, the NY Jets are right behind the SB winners at #12 which CLEARLY SHOWS that maybe pass rush isnt as dire as scoring given that we're 12th in pressures but in the bottom 10 in scoring offense. 

I will bet $10 right now that the reason why we lost so many games and didn't make the playoffs is because other teams outscored us! lol. 

 

But moving along, The NO Saints are in the middle of the pack at #16 yet they made it to the NFCCG themselves. Granted, they have Cameron Jordan, who is a top rusher in this league...but we all know that it's the Saints offense that really sets the winning culture there. 

The Denver Broncos sit at number 20...yet they had two bookend DE's in Chubb and Miller. This is also a team that didn't make it to the playoffs though they signed a QB who the year before made it to the NFCCG with the Vikes. 

The Colts made the playoffs, and they're ranked #23. You know how they made the playoffs? #1. They drafted an ALL-PRO GUARD to protect Luck, and after starting the season 1-5, the offense finally "clicked" and down the stretch the Colts went 9-1, thanks to that offensive line keeping Luck upright, but most importantly, Frank Reich implementing a powerful rushing attack that the Colts have been missing for years. 

 

 

Pass rush is overrated. It's necessary....but the way folks have been thirsting for DE isnt warranted. Protect Darnold and let the pass rusher come to you when you have a more solidified offense. Sitting at #12 in pressures isnt bad for a team who's fans claim we cant get to the QB without Bosa/Allen.

 

I honestly don't think it "clearly" shows that at all. Pressures from a 4-man line aren't the same as pressures when sending half the D after the QB.

Put another way, a QB can be pressured by our blitz and still complete passes against a LB and/or DB level that is absent that defender or two in coverage. 

Pass rush is not overrated. Or more specifically, pass rush by a dominant defender who goes after the QB every snap, without the need for blitzing, is not overrated. If we land a great one it can be like having a 12th defender on the field as we get the QB pressured without the need for blitzing. 

Remember all the coverage sacks and pressures into incomplete passes when we had Revis/Cro in their primes? Even mediocre pressure led to a barely 50% completion rate to opposing QBs. Now picture that CB duo with a special pass rusher, like a Khalil Mack taking the place of Pace or Thomas; or swap in JJ Watt instead of Marques Douglas or Mike DeVito. 

You're preaching to the choir about building up the OL, but I'm not trading away a unique-skill pass rusher (at about $8M/yr for the next 4 years) to upgrade positions that could and should have been filled for the upcoming 2-3 years via FA a couple weeks ago. I like the Osemele pickup plenty, but 2 veteran upgrades were supposed to be the bare minimum and we stopped at half that. We can buy another G or RT in FA next year; elite pass rushers aren't for sale in FA. 

Or anyway, it depends how far down we'd move, and what additional pick(s) we're getting back in return. 

[cant wait]

this argument is basically saying that defense doesn’t matter because the team that scores the most points wins the game 

[jgb]

30 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I honestly don't think it "clearly" shows that at all. Pressures from a 4-man line aren't the same as pressures when sending half the D after the QB.

Put another way, a QB can be pressured by our blitz and still complete passes against a LB and/or DB level that is absent that defender or two in coverage. 

Pass rush is not overrated. Or more specifically, pass rush by a dominant defender who goes after the QB every snap, without the need for blitzing, is not overrated. If we land a great one it can be like having a 12th defender on the field as we get the QB pressured without the need for blitzing. 

Remember all the coverage sacks and pressures into incomplete passes when we had Revis/Cro in their primes? Even mediocre pressure led to a barely 50% completion rate to opposing QBs. Now picture that CB duo with a special pass rusher, like a Khalil Mack taking the place of Pace or Thomas; or swap in JJ Watt instead of Marques Douglas or Mike DeVito. 

You're preaching to the choir about building up the OL, but I'm not trading away a unique-skill pass rusher (at about $8M/yr for the next 4 years) to upgrade positions that could and should have been filled for the upcoming 2-3 years via FA a couple weeks ago. I like the Osemele pickup plenty, but 2 veteran upgrades were supposed to be the bare minimum and we stopped at half that. We can buy another G or RT in FA next year; elite pass rushers aren't for sale in FA. 

Or anyway, it depends how far down we'd move, and what additional pick(s) we're getting back in return. 

It's also impossible to draw trends (clear or otherwise) by examining one data point. You can't make a line with one dot.

[Villain The Foe]

5 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I honestly don't think it "clearly" shows that at all. Pressures from a 4-man line aren't the same as pressures when sending half the D after the QB.

Put another way, a QB can be pressured by our blitz and still complete passes against a LB and/or DB level that is absent that defender or two in coverage. 

Pass rush is not overrated. Or more specifically, pass rush by a dominant defender who goes after the QB every snap, without the need for blitzing, is not overrated. If we land a great one it can be like having a 12th defender on the field as we get the QB pressured without the need for blitzing. 

Remember all the coverage sacks and pressures into incomplete passes when we had Revis/Cro in their primes? Even mediocre pressure led to a barely 50% completion rate to opposing QBs. Now picture that CB duo with a special pass rusher, like a Khalil Mack taking the place of Pace or Thomas; or swap in JJ Watt instead of Marques Douglas or Mike DeVito. 

You're preaching to the choir about building up the OL, but I'm not trading away a unique-skill pass rusher (at about $8M/yr for the next 4 years) to upgrade positions that could and should have been filled for the upcoming 2-3 years via FA a couple weeks ago. I like the Osemele pickup plenty, but 2 veteran upgrades were supposed to be the bare minimum and we stopped at half that. We can buy another G or RT in FA next year; elite pass rushers aren't for sale in FA. 

Or anyway, it depends how far down we'd move, and what additional pick(s) we're getting back in return. 

The Patriots and Jets were relatively equal when it came to Blitzing the QB last year by sending 5 or more rushers. 

That 4-man line rush doesnt apply to the Patriots either. 

And I do generally understand that pass rusher isnt overrated, my comment is relative to the level of fervor Jets fans are displaying over drafting the position with the 3rd overall pick, as if Josh Allen is coming into the draft projected as some sort of "future HOF'er" level talent. Let me explain.

Now I can understand the excitement for Bosa given his production and who he's related to, but Josh Allen is a 1 year guy with real health issues. This time last year no one even knew who this guy was. 1 year later this dude is "the guy". Im concerned about players who only produce in their last season knowing that they're looking to work for a better draft position, especially a guy who admitted that he quit football twice AND has Osgood-Schlatter disease in his knees. That literally reminds me of when we took another Kentucky guy, Dewayne Robertson when he also had knee problems. As soon as he got into the NFL, his knees simply couldnt take it. So am I supposed to dismiss the fact that Allen has stated that he wanted to quit twice during his freshman season, really had just one outstanding year and he has an actual knee disease?  Bosa was atleast consistent throughout his college career and has no health issues that I know of. I dont even think Jets fans even know about Josh Allen's knee issue. 

Now im not saying that Allen is a guaranteed bust, but im personally not willing to risk having to wait until the 3rd round to start bringing in talent for the offense while betting a top 3 pick on a guy who really produced outstandingly in 1 season with knee disease just because I call him a unique talent and make very loose comparisons to Khalil Mack and JJ watt. 

It would rather trade down and try my best to put some more talent and protection around Darnold, a QB that I know that if I dont protect and provide talent for, it wouldnt matter if we had Von Miller, we're not going anywhere. 

[Philc1]

18 hours ago, Defense Wins Championships said:

An Edge Rusher is super important. The last time we had one was J.Abe and because of the trade of a pass rusher we landed Nick Mangold. 

It's a passing league. Best way to stop the pass is pressure the QB. 

If Bosa or Allen are there, it's a must @ #3. 

Stop talking rationally dammit