Analysis: Edge Rusher and Sacks are Irrelevant to Going to Super Bowl

[CTJetsFan]

39 minutes ago, jgb said:

I'd be surprised if the two were not closely positively correlated.

They may be. What made think about it was the Giants win over the Pats in the SB where they had a lot of pressure up the middle on Brady and "hits" on him. I believe they officially sacked him 5 times. Jay Alford had 1, Mitchell 1, Strahan 1 and Tuck 2. 9 hits total.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200802030nwe.htm

Seems to support the argument that it's more about the team defense and scheme as opposed to a dominating individual. I guess you can say if you have a lot of studs on defense (of which we need more), someone is going to make a play because you can't block/double them all.

[The Crusher]

12 minutes ago, nico002 said:

How many edge rushers in the last 20 years have been worth the #3 pick? I can think of one... (Von Miller)

Kalil Mack

[Jetsfan80]

7 minutes ago, Jets Voice of Reason said:

People also put too much stock on making determinations based on “who won” the superbowl, when really it is a single elimination tournament. sure it is not truly random because skill is involved, but there are so many variables outside of how good teams are to draw a pretty large assumption like is being made by OP here of the data being presented as evidence. 

If anything, the trends of offenses season to season should tell you most of the story. I haven’t checked, but i’d be pretty sure that The top offensive teams usually make the playoffs, more qbs at the top are having higher passing yards each season, and there are fewer cumulative rushing yards each season than there was in the past.  

Exactly.  The Bears were one Parkey kick from the NFC Divisional round, and who knows how far they could have gone.  Khalil Mack pretty much carried a team led by a pretty mediocre QB in Trubisky (who needed Nagy's set of skills to show improvement from a terrible rookie season) to get to the playoffs in the first place. 

[BroadwayRay]

This is why I wouldn’t mind if the Jets trade down and devote all their high picks to offense. Fans love the thrill of the QB sack and as a result they have a somewhat inflated view of the impact of pass rushers. 

[Jetsfan80]

5 minutes ago, CTJetsFan said:

They may be. What made think about it was the Giants win over the Pats in the SB where they had a lot of pressure up the middle on Brady and "hits" on him. I believe they officially sacked him 5 times. Jay Alford had 1, Mitchell 1, Strahan 1 and Tuck 2. 9 hits total.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200802030nwe.htm

Seems to support the argument that it's more about the team defense and scheme as opposed to a dominating individual. I guess you can say if you have a lot of studs on defense (of which we need more), someone is going to make a play because you can't block/double them all. 

You need either one unstoppable force (like a Khalil Mack) or several really good pass rushers.

We have neither of those situations.  The same people who don't want us to draft a pass rusher will be whining when the likes of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh Allen have all day to throw next season because Brandon Copeland can't shed his blocks.  "How is Darnold supposed to put up points when our defense can't get off the field?"

[Jetsfan80]

3 minutes ago, BroadwayRay said:

This is why I wouldn’t mind if the Jets trade down and devote all their high picks to offense. Fans love the thrill of the QB sack and as a result they have a somewhat inflated view of the impact of pass rushers.  

I'd argue that some fans underrate the importance of pass rush because they only see it in terms of how many sacks are generated.

Pressure generates turnovers.  Pressure generates 3 and outs.  It doesn't just generate sacks. 

Without an organic pass rush, we're relying on our defensive coordinator to constantly send blitz packages that the offense doesn't expect, and thus putting extra strain on our secondary.  That only worked for a little while with Rex Ryan before the league figured out what he was doing. 

[JustInFudge]

I appreciate the effort but if the conconclusion is QB's win championships, well, duh but that's not what the Jets need.  They hopefully have that covered.

On the flip side, you still need to field a defense and the 2 positions that can disrupt the QB the most are edge rushers and CB's.  

If we're using recent Super Bowl teams - lets look at this in a more relevant way:

Denver has taken Chubb and Miller and Shane Ray in the 1st rounds.

The Patriots took Dom Easley and Malcolm Brown in the 1st round. 

Falcons took Vic Beasley and McKinley in the 1st round. 

Rams took Donald, Brockers, Quinn in the 1st round - in addition to trading for Fowler and signing Suh.

Panthers took Thompson, Butler, Lotuleli all in the 1st round.

Eagles took Derek Barnnett, Marcus Smith and Brandon Graham in the 1st round.

The Steelers basically only take pass rushers in the 1st, Dupree, Watt, Hayward, Hood.

The only team in this example who didnt prioritize pass rushers in the 1st round is Seattle.

Conclusion; Super Bowl teams prioritize pass rushers. 

[Jet Nut]

1 hour ago, Larz said:

Pressure up the middle for the win

Take QW

That was the recipe the Pats used this post season.  Not from the edge, not even from sacks, from pressure up the middle

That being said, hopefully we have the QB part of the equation, adding a force at edge will help this team immensely .  Pressure on a QB is a long standing way to win games.  Giants vs the Pats is the perfect example

[LAD_Brooklyn]

53 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Say what you will about the Rams’ Super Bowl performance, but they loaded up on pass rushers for a reason. Even WITH Donald on the roster, they went out and grabbed Suh and Dante Fowler.

 

They did this because they understand this simple truth: Once you have a QB, one of the top priorities is trying to stop the other QB on the field and get the ball back to your offense. And the best way to do that is by putting pressure on the QB without always having to rely on blitzes and “out-scheming” the other coach.

Then what was the point in using major resources to get two studs in Talib and Peters at CB? The backend is just as important as the frontend except that it's less margain for error. But I'm a believer that a great defense has a multitude of great players, doesn't have to specifically come at a certain position to be successful. 

[NYs Stepchild]

8 minutes ago, The Crusher said:

Kalil Mack

Their were a lot of edge rushers worth top 3 but how many actually went top 3 and were worth it? 

Clowney went #1 and MAck 5. 

[Jetsfan80]

1 minute ago, LAD_Brooklyn said:

Then what was the point in using major resources to get two studs in Talib and Peters at CB? The backend is just as important as the frontend except that it's less margain for error. But I'm a believer that a great defense has a multitude of great players, doesn't have to specifically come at a certain position to be successful.  

Because they had the money to do so.

Talib and Peters are also both turnover machines (Talib:  35 career INT and 10 TD's; Peters:  22 career INT and 3 TD's).  Kind of a good thing to have for instances where you pressure the QB into bad decisions. 

[Jetsfan80]

1 minute ago, NYs Stepchild said:

Their were a lot of edge rushers worth top 3 but how many actually went top 3 and were worth it? 

Clowney went #1 and MAck 5. 

 

Yes, Mack and Chubb didn't go top 5, but you get the picture:

 

15 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Julius Peppers.  Justin Smith.  Chris Long.  Mario Williams.  Khalil Mack.  Joey Bosa (28.5 sacks in 35 games).  Clowney has 29 sacks and just got franchise tagged by the team that drafted him.  So far, Myles Garrett has been worth the 2017 # 1 pick (20.5 sacks, 4 FF, 1 FR, 4 PD, 47 QB Hits, 21 TFL).  Bradley Chubb was taken 5th last year, and put up 12 sacks. 

Suh isn't an edge rusher, but since he's a pass-rushing DT, I'd include him in that analysis too. 

Well that one was easy.  Got anything else you need from me?  If not I'll get back to my day job.

 

[NYs Stepchild]

3 minutes ago, JiF said:

I appreciate the effort but if the conconclusion is QB's win championships, well, duh but that's not what the Jets need.  They hopefully have the covered.

On the flip side, you still need to field a defense and the 2 positions that can disrupt the QB the most are edge rushers and CB's.  

If we're using recent Super Bowl teams - lets look at this in a more relevant way:

Denver has taken Chubb and Miller and Shane Ray in the 1st rounds.

The Patriots took Dom Easley and Malcolm Brown in the 1st round. 

Falcons took Vic Beasley and McKinley in the 1st round. 

Rams took Donald, Brockers, Quinn in the 1st round - in addition to trading for Fowler and signing Suh.

Panthers took Thompson, Butler, Lotuleli all in the 1st round.

Eagles took Derek Barnnett, Marcus Smith and Brandon Graham in the 1st round.

The Steelers basically only take pass rushers in the 1st, Dupree, Watt, Hayward, Hood.

The only team in this example who didnt prioritize pass rushers in the 1st round is Seattle.

Conclusion; Super Bowl teams prioritize pass rushers. 

Most of the stud pass rushers come in the middle of round one. Seems to be a sweet spot.

The top of the draft seems to be full of very expensive busts. 

Trade down with the skins is the smart move. 

[Jetsfan80]

2 minutes ago, NYs Stepchild said:

Most of the stud pass rushers come in the middle of round one. Seems to be a sweet spot.

Not every draft is the same.  If we can trade down and get Bosa, Josh Allen, or Quinnen Williams, great.  I'd also entertain Clelin Ferrell or Montez Sweat.  But its very possible ALL of those guys go in the Top 10. 

And its also possible there's a "separation" between the elite guys and the next tier, in which we'd miss out by trading down at all. 

[UnknownJetFan]

5 hours ago, johnnysd said:

All I have been hearing lately is how important "Edge Rushers" are and how vital sacks are to winning, so I did some research to see if that is true. I looked at 5 years and stats show that having a Top Edge Rusher or having a team with a lot of stats is almost completely unrelated to getting to the SB outside of a one outlier season.

Sacks are flashy. They are like a mini turnover and are exciting. But they really have little relation to success in the NFL.

From a team perspective, there is only about a 14 sack difference between #1 and middle of the pack. Less than 1 a game: 2018:13 2017:18 2016:14 2015:14 2014:15

So lets look at total sack rankings for the last 5 Super Bowls:

TOTAL SACKS, TEAM

2018: NE 30th, Rams 15th 

2017: NE T7th Phil T15th

2016 Both T16th

2015 DEN #1 CAR #6

2014: NE 13th SEA 20th 

CONCLUSION: So for the last 10 Super Bowl teams, only 3 have been Top 10 and 1 has been #1. The 2015 Denver team did have Peyton Manning but Denver did win the SB on QB pressure and sacks

2015 definitely the outlier here as both were Top 10 teams in sacks, But only 1 in the other 4 Super Bowls. Not a very high attach rate at all. Mostly average teams in sacks are making the SB

TOP 10 SACK LEADERS

But what about those elite sack "edge" guys so coveted? Lets look at the number of Top 10 sack guys in the last 5 Super Bowls

2018: Aaron Donald #1  Interestingly not an "edge guy". But did the Rams make the SB because of Donald??

2017: 0

2016: 0

2015: Von Miller, Short both T8th

2014: 0 - Interestingly, the two best sack guys in the SB were #26 and #36 in the NFL

CONCLUSION: Again on the last 10 SB teams, only 3 Top 10 pass rushers played. Again 2015 is the outlier with 2, and Donald sticks out because he was #1 but likely not why they made the Super Bowl. Very low attach rate here as well.

What does matter?

OFFENSE AND QBS

Let's look at PTS/G averages for the last 10 SB participants:

2018: #2 and #4

2017: #2 and #3

2016: #11 and #3

2015 #16 and #11

2014: #4 and #10

CONCLUSION: Strong correlation here. 7 of the last 10 teams in the SB were in the Top 10 in PTS/G. If we extend that only 1 spot, only a single team was not in the Top 11 in offense for that year. This is very meaningful. Essentially if you are not a Top 10 offense in the NFL your odds of making the SB are very, very slim

We all know that QBs are the most important player in football. Do the numbers bear that out:

QB TOTAL QBR

2018: Brady 6th. Goff 10th

2017 Brady 3rd, Wentz 1st *(obviously Foles played in the playoffs and SB but his QB play essentially won the SB and Philly got there in great part because of Wentz)

2016 Ryan 1st, Brady 3rd

2015 Newton #11 Osweiler 20th/ Manning 28th

2014 Brady #3 Wilson #6

CONCLUSION: What you would expect. Top 10 QBs get to the SB. Again 2015 is the outlier, and these stats are skewed by Brady showing up so much, but you can't deny he is the main player reason NE gets to the SB.

OVERALL THOUGHTS: SACKS ARE SERIOUSLY OVERRATED, THE NFL IS ALL ABOUT QB and OFFENSE

Recent history suggests that sacks, both from a team perspective and from an individual standpoint are really not directly related AT ALL to making the SB. In fact the difference from average to Top Team sacks is less than one a game. With only 3 teams or 30% of teams with top sacks even getting to the Super Bowl, you could make a good argument that even if you are already average at sacks, adding a player that adds 10 additional sacks won't really increase your odds on getting to the SB.. In terms of the Jets, we have not been horrible at sacks, usually around middle of the pack, 15th last year. So the thought that adding a Bosa or Allen to the Jets will increase odds of wins and getting to the SB are weak at best. It just doesn't seem to track.

Offense does however. As mentioned you pretty much need to be Top 11 in offense to make the SB.  We were 23rd last year with 20.8 points per game. To get to #11 is 4.3 points a game, #10 5.1 points per game. So our offense needs to be almost two FGs a game better. Or looked at a different way, our offense needs to be 25% better. 

We all expect Darnold to be better, and we have Bell and Crowder, but if we really want to make the SB we need Darnold be a Top 10 guy in Total QBR and our offense to be Top 10, so we really really need to focus on improving the offense as much as possible.  Bosa, QW or Allen are not going to move the bar as much as improving our offense, so i(f possible) historical evidence shows we should try and trade down, shore up the OL and try to get another playmaker

Thoughts on 2015 season: It is totally an outlier. I havent had the chance to see if a significant rule change happened in 2016, or if weather played a huge role in the playoffs that year, but you can look at that season and see that it might have been the passing of the guard from defense winning Championships to offense winning championships.

When you look at it objectively all the attention paid to "edge" rushers, and statements like "2nd most important player on the field" just don't hold water. Disclaimer: I realize this is not rigorous statistical analysis but it does some simple correlations.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yes, but a few years back without Von Miller the Broncos don't win the Super Bowl. Same Goes for the Giants with Strahan the year the team won it with him.

[JustInFudge]

6 minutes ago, NYs Stepchild said:

Most of the stud pass rushers come in the middle of round one. Seems to be a sweet spot.

The top of the draft seems to be full of very expensive busts. 

Trade down with the skins is the smart move. 

Meh, I dont think it's that simple.  Garrett went 1st overall, I dont think the Brown regret it.  Clowney too. Mack and Ansah were 5th.  Bosa 3rd. 

 

 

[NYs Stepchild]

6 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Not every draft is the same.  If we can trade down and get Bosa, Josh Allen, or Quinnen Williams, great.  I'd also entertain Clelin Ferrell or Montez Sweat.  But its very possible ALL of those guys go in the Top 10. 

And its also possible there's a "separation" between the elite guys and the next tier, in which we'd miss out by trading down at all. 

There's also a possibility of a separation between Bosa and allen and others. Ferrell is a likely bust. 

Bosa is likely to be good not great and Allen has great bend but is risky because he's to get bigger and needs to develop more moves. 

I think best rusher will be one of Sweat, Burns, or Allen. One of these guys can be had at 15. Then we get the chance to hit on 3 or 4 more guys. 

 

[NYs Stepchild]

10 minutes ago, JiF said:

Meh, I dont think it's that simple.  Garrett went 1st overall, I dont think the Brown regret it.  Clowney too. Mack and Ansah were 5th.  Bosa 3rd. 

 

 

Obviously it's not that simple. You have to do the scouting. Do you think Houston would trade Clowney for MAck plus 3 additional picks now?

All I'm saying is that the scouts are often wrong. The best pass rushers are usually in the top 3 but they're usually not in the order that the scouts project.

This year is a very good year for edge and the best rusher has a good chance of being picked late in the first. 

[Jetsfan80]

11 minutes ago, NYs Stepchild said:

There's also a possibility of a separation between Bosa and allen and others. Ferrell is a likely bust. 

Bosa is likely to be good not great and Allen has great bend but is risky because he's to get bigger and needs to develop more moves. 

I think best rusher will be one of Sweat, Burns, or Allen. One of these guys can be had at 15. Then we get the chance to hit on 3 or 4 more guys.  

 

At least we agree that pass rusher IS a significant need.  Those saying otherwise are kidding themselves.

[NYs Stepchild]

1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

At least we agree that pass rusher IS a significant need.  Those saying otherwise are kidding themselves.

I wouldn't be mad if we took a couple of those guys. I just don't want to put all my eggs in one basket.

I really want next year's 1st also. There won't be anyone arguing with me next year, if we do. 

[Jetsfan80]

3 minutes ago, NYs Stepchild said:

I wouldn't be mad if we took a couple of those guys. I just don't want to put all my eggs in one basket.

I really want next year's 1st also. There won't be anyone arguing with me next year, if we do. 

Swindling another team is the # 1 goal in this draft.  Agreed. 

[Augustiniak]

49 minutes ago, JiF said:

I appreciate the effort but if the conconclusion is QB's win championships, well, duh but that's not what the Jets need.  They hopefully have that covered.

On the flip side, you still need to field a defense and the 2 positions that can disrupt the QB the most are edge rushers and CB's.  

If we're using recent Super Bowl teams - lets look at this in a more relevant way:

Denver has taken Chubb and Miller and Shane Ray in the 1st rounds.

The Patriots took Dom Easley and Malcolm Brown in the 1st round. 

Falcons took Vic Beasley and McKinley in the 1st round. 

Rams took Donald, Brockers, Quinn in the 1st round - in addition to trading for Fowler and signing Suh.

Panthers took Thompson, Butler, Lotuleli all in the 1st round.

Eagles took Derek Barnnett, Marcus Smith and Brandon Graham in the 1st round.

The Steelers basically only take pass rushers in the 1st, Dupree, Watt, Hayward, Hood.

The only team in this example who didnt prioritize pass rushers in the 1st round is Seattle.

Conclusion; Super Bowl teams prioritize pass rushers. 

All of these teams had really good qbs in place, and also prioritized the OL in many instances.  

It’s much easier to fill out the roster when you’re not always looking for a qb.  

[nyjunc]

sacks can be overrated, pressuring the QB is not and good edge rushers help pressure the QB.

[CTM]

2 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Moreover, we haven’t had a great pass rusher since 2005. How has that worked out for us, exactly?

This isn't a point. There are a 100 reasons why we've been a failure and lack of an edge rusher is only 1 of them. In fact,considering we went to 2 AFCC without one during this time period this point does more to support Op than anything.

[bitonti]

obviously the Jets want to trade down and draft 11 pro bowlers. 

 

the question is what happens when the offers stink and you have to take a player at 3? 

cause most likely they are going to make that pick, despite wanting to trade down 

using this logic they need "offense"  who exactly is that pick at 3? 

[Losmeister]

6 hours ago, dbatesman said:

Comparing sacks to points per game and QBR is like comparing apples to screwdrivers.

it's called correlation

[Jetsfan80]

This isn't a point. There are a 100 reasons why we've been a failure and lack of an edge rusher is only 1 of them. In fact,considering we went to 2 AFCC without one during this time period this point does more to support Op than anything.

Having a guy who could get off his blocks would have been huge for those 2009 and ‘10 seasons.

As it stood, when we didn’t blitz or the blitz failed, QBs had all day to throw. We had to go to the garbage bin and bring in that Bills bust (can’t remember his name) because we needed a situational pass rusher so badly.

[JustInFudge]

1 hour ago, NYs Stepchild said:

Obviously it's not that simple. You have to do the scouting. Do you think Houston would trade Clowney for MAck plus 3 additional picks now?

All I'm saying is that the scouts are often wrong. The best pass rushers are usually in the top 3 but they're usually not in the order that the scouts project.

This year is a very good year for edge and the best rusher has a good chance of being picked late in the first. 

I think you could do this with every position.  It's definitely not exclusive to pass rushers.  

[JustInFudge]

1 hour ago, Augustiniak said:

All of these teams had really good qbs in place, and also prioritized the OL in many instances.  

It’s much easier to fill out the roster when you’re not always looking for a qb.  

For sure and that's my point.  The Jets have their QB and they have made some moves to improve the offense.   If you look at the roster the biggest needs are a pass rusher, #1 WR and CB, IMO.  And it just so happens, the draft is dictating that the best players available at #3 are pass rushers and they're extremely important to a Football team.

 

[CTM]

18 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

Having a guy who could get off his blocks would have been huge for those 2009 and ‘10 seasons.

As it stood, when we didn’t blitz or the blitz failed, QBs had all day to throw. We had to go to the garbage bin and bring in that Bills bust (can’t remember his name) because we needed a situational pass rusher so badly.

 

Lack of edge rusher is not the main reason we've failed.

[dbatesman]

28 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

it's called correlation

oh

[FidelioJet]

7 minutes ago, CTM said:

Lack of edge rusher is not the main reason we've failed.

Yup...

We failed because we can't score points.  The Jets should be focusing virtually every resource to offense.  

The teams that consistently get into the playoffs do it with offense - then you just have to get hot when you're there.  

We hope we have the long-awaited FQB - now just go and build an offense around him. 

I have to be honest, I don't understand this obsession with edge rushers our fan base has - we have been so bad, for so long - with a singular focus on defense.  Let's try something new. 

[Jetsfan80]

8 minutes ago, CTM said:

Lack of edge rusher is not the main reason we've failed.

I'd say its one of the top 3 reasons we've failed as a franchise. 

Remember when we pounded Peyton Manning into submission in the 2002 playoffs?  I was at that game, and Manning was on the ground so often, his jersey had spots of paint from the midfield NFL logo that had rubbed off al over him.  We had multiple guys who could get after the QB that year. 

It's crucial,  The 3rd most important aspect of a successful team after QB and protecting your QB.  Yet somehow Jets fans have a blindspot on just HOW important it is.

[nyjunc]

Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

I'd say its one of the top 3 reasons we've failed as a franchise. 

Remember when we pounded Peyton Manning into submission in the 2002 playoffs?  I was at that game, and Manning was on the ground so often, his jersey had spots of paint from the midfield NFL logo that had rubbed off al over him.  We had multiple guys who could get after the QB that year. 

It's crucial,  The 3rd most important aspect of a successful team after QB and protecting your QB.  Yet somehow Jets fans have a blindspot on just HOW important it is.

And a week later we couldn't touch Gannon

[Miss Lonelyhearts]

37 minutes ago, bitonti said:

using this logic they need "offense"  who exactly is that pick at 3? 

I dunno why otherwise reasonable people are having such a hard time with this. The problem isn't drafting defense. It's drafting bad. If you miss on the pick why does it make a goddamned difference which side of the ball it was on?