Analysis: Edge Rusher and Sacks are Irrelevant to Going to Super Bowl

[Philc1]

8 hours ago, Villain The Foe said:

The Patriots and Jets were relatively equal when it came to Blitzing the QB last year by sending 5 or more rushers. 

That 4-man line rush doesnt apply to the Patriots either. 

And I do generally understand that pass rusher isnt overrated, my comment is relative to the level of fervor Jets fans are displaying over drafting the position with the 3rd overall pick, as if Josh Allen is coming into the draft projected as some sort of "future HOF'er" level talent. Let me explain.

Now I can understand the excitement for Bosa given his production and who he's related to, but Josh Allen is a 1 year guy with real health issues. This time last year no one even knew who this guy was. 1 year later this dude is "the guy". Im concerned about players who only produce in their last season knowing that they're looking to work for a better draft position, especially a guy who admitted that he quit football twice AND has Osgood-Schlatter disease in his knees. That literally reminds me of when we took another Kentucky guy, Dewayne Robertson when he also had knee problems. As soon as he got into the NFL, his knees simply couldnt take it. So am I supposed to dismiss the fact that Allen has stated that he wanted to quit twice during his freshman season, really had just one outstanding year and he has an actual knee disease?  Bosa was atleast consistent throughout his college career and has no health issues that I know of. I dont even think Jets fans even know about Josh Allen's knee issue. 

Now im not saying that Allen is a guaranteed bust, but im personally not willing to risk having to wait until the 3rd round to start bringing in talent for the offense while betting a top 3 pick on a guy who really produced outstandingly in 1 season with knee disease just because I call him a unique talent and make very loose comparisons to Khalil Mack and JJ watt. 

It would rather trade down and try my best to put some more talent and protection around Darnold, a QB that I know that if I dont protect and provide talent for, it wouldnt matter if we had Von Miller, we're not going anywhere. 

It wouldn’t matter having Von Miller unless you’re the broncos facing Brady and Belichick in the playoffs yes

[RichardTodd27]

So then why are elite edge rushers always winning Super Bowls?

Just off the top of my head, Super Bowl champs edge rushers include - L.T., Reggie White, Charles Haley, Strahan, Freeney, Harrison, Clay, Suggs, Von Miller. And these guys were all instumental (not just their for the ride).

I know there's a handful that didn't win SB's like Derrick Thomas and Peppers. But you get my point.

 

[BROOKLYN JET]

On 3/26/2019 at 3:18 AM, dbatesman said:

Comparing sacks to points per game and QBR is like comparing apples to screwdrivers.

 

[JohnnyLV]

20 minutes ago, RichardTodd27 said:

So then why are elite edge rushers always winning Super Bowls?

Just off the top of my head, Super Bowl champs edge rushers include - L.T., Reggie White, Charles Haley, Strahan, Freeney, Harrison, Clay, Suggs, Von Miller. And these guys were all instumental (not just their for the ride).

I know there's a handful that didn't win SB's like Derrick Thomas and Peppers. But you get my point.

 

Lol thats really not that many if you are going back 25 years and the NFL is much different than it was now. If that is the list then it sort of confirms that edge rushers are not that important to getting to the SB

[Philc1]

15 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

Lol thats really not that many if you are going back 25 years and the NFL is much different than it was now. If that is the list then it sort of confirms that edge rushers are not that important to getting to the SB

Uh no it just confirms edge rushers are more important now then 20 years ago which they absolutely are

 

That’s how a 9-7 Giant team beat arguably the greatest NFL roster ever assembled

 

[NYs Stepchild]

18 hours ago, johnnysd said:

I completely agree with this. What does it matter if we pick him at 3 or 6? Salaries are slotted. If you feel he is a 10 year starter just take him, there is no opportunity cost no matter what the draft dorks say

It matters because the slots have a lot of value to other teams. You can get extra picks for a better slot. Extra cost controlled players. Efficient use of salary can get you another blue chip player. Figure 100k times 52. Little things add up to a large edge in the salary cap era.

You're not really saying that pass rush is irrelevant but once you are above league average the  benefit decreases.

You're not winning the SB without an average pass rush. You need to get the lead to force them into obvious passing situations as well. 

The next thing to look at is forcing teams to keep in extra blockers. This, I believe is the threshold. No team is going to allow you to pressure them all game. They will adjust their game plan. That's why this stat is so hard to quantify. 

[Sperm Edwards]

20 hours ago, Villain The Foe said:

The Patriots and Jets were relatively equal when it came to Blitzing the QB last year by sending 5 or more rushers. 

That 4-man line rush doesnt apply to the Patriots either. 

And I do generally understand that pass rusher isnt overrated, my comment is relative to the level of fervor Jets fans are displaying over drafting the position with the 3rd overall pick, as if Josh Allen is coming into the draft projected as some sort of "future HOF'er" level talent. Let me explain.

Now I can understand the excitement for Bosa given his production and who he's related to, but Josh Allen is a 1 year guy with real health issues. This time last year no one even knew who this guy was. 1 year later this dude is "the guy". Im concerned about players who only produce in their last season knowing that they're looking to work for a better draft position, especially a guy who admitted that he quit football twice AND has Osgood-Schlatter disease in his knees. That literally reminds me of when we took another Kentucky guy, Dewayne Robertson when he also had knee problems. As soon as he got into the NFL, his knees simply couldnt take it. So am I supposed to dismiss the fact that Allen has stated that he wanted to quit twice during his freshman season, really had just one outstanding year and he has an actual knee disease?  Bosa was atleast consistent throughout his college career and has no health issues that I know of. I dont even think Jets fans even know about Josh Allen's knee issue. 

Now im not saying that Allen is a guaranteed bust, but im personally not willing to risk having to wait until the 3rd round to start bringing in talent for the offense while betting a top 3 pick on a guy who really produced outstandingly in 1 season with knee disease just because I call him a unique talent and make very loose comparisons to Khalil Mack and JJ watt. 

It would rather trade down and try my best to put some more talent and protection around Darnold, a QB that I know that if I dont protect and provide talent for, it wouldnt matter if we had Von Miller, we're not going anywhere. 

I'm not referring to individual prospects. It's more that I disagree with the premise of this thread which is more or less drawing inferences that edge (or probably interior) pass rushing prowess is measured by sacks, and it's irrelevant to going to a SB. 

It's such a narrow-minded examination, because it ignores the different things those other teams did have (which we also don't have any more than we have a consistent pass rush, absent blitzing). OK we don't need one IF we have an established HOF QB playing at said HOF level, on top of other things this team lacks. It's a narrow snippet in time and drawing far too broad inferences based on such a relatively tiny sample size that doesn't automatically transfer to other teams in other seasons.

I like the idea of trading down, but if the reason for trading down is to cover up for only adding one good veteran offensive lineman (coming off a very down season at that) this month, when we started the FA period with >$100MM in cap space? No. The opportunity was certainly there to add at least one more productive veteran OLman, even if he's at or just over 30, with the idea that we can find a future replacement later on in the draft or later on in a future FA period in 2 or 3 years. 

Unlike guards or RTs who are available in every year in FA without blowing crazy $, you can't just shop for cheap, younger, elite-skilled pass rushers in FA. They don't exist. It's the one area on D that I'm ok with subbing instead of help directly around Darnold. 

[Philc1]

2 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I'm not referring to individual prospects. It's more that I disagree with the premise of this thread which is more or less drawing inferences that edge (or probably interior) pass rushing prowess is measured by sacks, and it's irrelevant to going to a SB. 

It's such a narrow-minded examination, because it ignores the different things those other teams did have (which we also don't have any more than we have a consistent pass rush, absent blitzing). OK we don't need one IF we have an established HOF QB playing at said HOF level, on top of other things this team lacks. It's a narrow snippet in time and drawing far too broad inferences based on such a relatively tiny sample size that doesn't automatically transfer to other teams in other seasons.

I like the idea of trading down, but if the reason for trading down is to cover up for only adding one good veteran offensive lineman (coming off a very down season at that) this month, when we started the FA period with >$100MM in cap space? No. The opportunity was certainly there to add at least one more productive veteran OLman, even if he's at or just over 30, with the idea that we can find a future replacement later on in the draft or later on in a future FA period in 2 or 3 years. 

Unlike guards or RTs, you can't just shop for cheap, young, elite-skilled pass rushers in FA. They don't exist. It's the one area on D that I'm ok with subbing instead of help directly around Darnold. 

People act like we are drafting another Safety or ILB at 3 if we don’t trade down for Jonah

[Sperm Edwards]

12 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

People act like we are drafting another Safety or ILB at 3 if we don’t trade down for Jonah

Yeah but it's even more than that. It's looking at stats without any analysis as to what led to them.

- Teams can get sacks & pressure because they blitz like crazy. It's also possible that for every successful sack/pressure, this allowed 3x that number of 1st down conversions for one team or another.

- Teams can get sacks & pressure for reasons other than a good pass rush. We did that in our last playoff runs, for example. But unlike then, we don't have any corners capable of playing at all time top 3 (if not #1) all-time level. We're not going to, either. Our #2 corner on that team was noticeably better than our best one now. 

- Teams can make up for either by fielding an offense that scores another 10 ppg.

So yeah a team can get by without one, but look at the types of multiple others required on that side of the ball to cover up for the absence of one. 

That said, if we're just going to get another "solid" DLman like Leo (or even Sheldon or Mo) that's not enough to bypass 2-3 other high pick players. A DT would need to be like Donald-level; a DE/OLB like another Mack. Absent that, they're not worth the picks that would lead to 3 other good + cheap starters. Especially when current good-enough edge rushers are hardly limited to top 3 overall draft picks.

[Philc1]

1 minute ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Yeah but it's even more than that. It's looking at stats without any analysis as to why.

Teams can get sacks & pressure because they blitz like crazy. It's also possible that for every successful sack/pressure, this allowed 3x that number of 1st down conversions for one team or another.

Teams can get sacks & pressure for reasons other than a good pass rush. We did that in our last playoff runs, for example. But unlike then, we don't have any corners capable of playing at all time top 3 (if not #1) all-time level. We're not going to, either. Our #2 corner on that team was noticeably better than our best one now. 

So yeah a team can get by without one, but look at the types of multiple others required on that side of the ball to cover up for the absence of one. 

That said, if we're just going to get another "solid" DLman like Leo (or even Sheldon or Mo) that's not enough to bypass 2-3 other high pick players. A DT would need to be like Donald-level; a DE/OLB like another Mack. Absent that, they're not worth the picks that would lead to 3 other good + cheap starters. Especially when current good-enough edge rushers are hardly limited to top 3 overall draft picks.

It’s been on display over and over again the only way to beat Brady is with an effective 4-man rush.  Blitzing him constantly does not work if you give Brady the same blitz more than twice in a game he will pick it apart ditto for other elite QBs 

 

Sure blitzing Brady occasionally works like when Rex faked a weak side blitz in the 2010 playoff game and got him on the strong side but if blitz Brady too much you ask for Edelman and the rbs to carve you up

 

[jgb]

3 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

It’s been on display over and over again the only way to beat Brady is with an effective 4-man rush.  Blitzing him constantly does not work if you give Brady the same blitz more than twice in a game he will pick it apart ditto for other elite QBs 

 

Sure blitzing Brady occasionally works like when Rex faked a weak side blitz in the 2010 playoff game and got him on the strong side but if blitz Brady too much you ask for Edelman and the rbs to carve you up

 

First paragraph: “the only way to beat Brady”

Second paragraph: “occasionally other stuff works.”

we desperately need better trolls on here. Bring back PatsFanTX

[Villain The Foe]

1 hour ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I'm not referring to individual prospects. It's more that I disagree with the premise of this thread which is more or less drawing inferences that edge (or probably interior) pass rushing prowess is measured by sacks, and it's irrelevant to going to a SB. 

It's such a narrow-minded examination, because it ignores the different things those other teams did have (which we also don't have any more than we have a consistent pass rush, absent blitzing). OK we don't need one IF we have an established HOF QB playing at said HOF level, on top of other things this team lacks. It's a narrow snippet in time and drawing far too broad inferences based on such a relatively tiny sample size that doesn't automatically transfer to other teams in other seasons.

Gotcha. 

I dont think that it's as narrow-minded as you've perceived it, as it's just an alternative way of looking at things. 

 

Neither side are wrong here. The Jets need a pass rusher and the Jets need offensive talent. I think that folks who stand firmly or their respective sides are presenting respectable information/arguments. 

Many of us who agree with the examination do so because it also shows that offense does play a major role in the success of teams that may not have a pass rush. What we're tired of is the narrow-mindedness of the front office and their continuous investments to the defensive side of the ball when it comes to premium draft picks. 

Quote

I like the idea of trading down, but if the reason for trading down is to cover up for only adding one good veteran offensive lineman (coming off a very down season at that) this month, when we started the FA period with >$100MM in cap space? No. The opportunity was certainly there to add at least one more productive veteran OLman, even if he's at or just over 30, with the idea that we can find a future replacement later on in the draft or later on in a future FA period in 2 or 3 years. 

Unlike guards or RTs, you can't just shop for cheap, young, elite-skilled pass rushers in FA. They don't exist. It's the one area on D that I'm ok with subbing instead of help directly around Darnold. 

Honestly, If the Jets didnt draft defense with 9 of their 11 1st round picks since 2007, with those 2 offensive picks both being QB's that they moved up in the draft to take, many folks wouldnt be as adamant about trading down and getting more draft picks in order to provide quality draft picks to the offense. 

And you're right about pass rushers. That's a position you generally have to get early. Guys like Danielle Hunter (3rd round) and Demarcus Lawrence (2nd round) are rare. However, 3 of those 9 defensive 1st round picks since 2007 were defensive ends. The Jets have flopped at the position, but it's to the point that pretty much every 1st round pick is a defensive pick and when they dont work out they'll use another 1st round pick to try again, all while dismissing the QB's they just gave away a load of picks for. There has to be a balance. Somewhere during this journey we're going to have to say that Sam Darnold is more important than any defensive rookie given what we traded in order to draft him. 

In otherwords, it's not about that one good veteran lineman on a fluke down season, but more about us knowing that next year there will be that "sexy rookie cornerback that we cant pass up". It's always something not to invest in the offense, and we ultimately dont want to repeat history. 

Every year we've heard about how there isnt an offensive player worth the pick at that position, then a few years go by and we look back at that draft and now only do we see offensive players worth that position, but they're much better than the defensive player we picked. 

The question that I have is this, when does the offense become important outside of having to trade away a bunch of draft picks in order to draft a QB that we have a history of never supporting with drafted young talent? 

If we draft Bosa/Allen this year, and Trumaine Johnson and whomever else we have at CB crashes and burn and the defense needs a CB and next year there is considered a great CB class, does CB now become more important than an offensive skillset position or the offensive line? 

When does it stop being about the defense, until we finally hit? More importantly, when does it become about the QB that we gave away a 1st and 3 2nd round picks for? When do we show him how important he is to the franchise? 

 

[Villain The Foe]

1 hour ago, jgb said:

First paragraph: “the only way to beat Brady”

Second paragraph: “occasionally other stuff works.”

we desperately need better trolls on here. Bring back PatsFanTX

Exactly. Because every team has a 42 year old Tom Brady. 
 

Dude will be retired soon. I wonder who the QB/dynasty team will be to support that narrative then. 

[Sperm Edwards]

1 hour ago, Villain The Foe said:

Gotcha. 

I dont think that it's as narrow-minded as you've perceived it, as it's just an alternative way of looking at things. 

 

Neither side are wrong here. The Jets need a pass rusher and the Jets need offensive talent. I think that folks who stand firmly or their respective sides are presenting respectable information/arguments. 

Many of us who agree with the examination do so because it also shows that offense does play a major role in the success of teams that may not have a pass rush. What we're tired of is the narrow-mindedness of the front office and their continuous investments to the defensive side of the ball when it comes to premium draft picks. 

Honestly, If the Jets didnt draft defense with 9 of their 11 1st round picks since 2007, with those 2 offensive picks both being QB's that they moved up in the draft to take, many folks wouldnt be as adamant about trading down and getting more draft picks in order to provide quality draft picks to the offense. 

And you're right about pass rushers. That's a position you generally have to get early. Guys like Danielle Hunter (3rd round) and Demarcus Lawrence (2nd round) are rare. However, 3 of those 9 defensive 1st round picks since 2007 were defensive ends. The Jets have flopped at the position, but it's to the point that pretty much every 1st round pick is a defensive pick and when they dont work out they'll use another 1st round pick to try again, all while dismissing the QB's they just gave away a load of picks for. There has to be a balance. Somewhere during this journey we're going to have to say that Sam Darnold is more important than any defensive rookie given what we traded in order to draft him. 

In otherwords, it's not about that one good veteran lineman on a fluke down season, but more about us knowing that next year there will be that "sexy rookie cornerback that we cant pass up". It's always something not to invest in the offense, and we ultimately dont want to repeat history. 

Every year we've heard about how there isnt an offensive player worth the pick at that position, then a few years go by and we look back at that draft and now only do we see offensive players worth that position, but they're much better than the defensive player we picked. 

The question that I have is this, when does the offense become important outside of having to trade away a bunch of draft picks in order to draft a QB that we have a history of never supporting with drafted young talent? 

If we draft Bosa/Allen this year, and Trumaine Johnson and whomever else we have at CB crashes and burn and the defense needs a CB and next year there is considered a great CB class, does CB now become more important than an offensive skillset position or the offensive line? 

When does it stop being about the defense, until we finally hit? More importantly, when does it become about the QB that we gave away a 1st and 3 2nd round picks for? When do we show him how important he is to the franchise? 

 

While I'm sympathetic to the emotions it brings up, in terms of what we should do today the past history is not relevant. The teams' needs are what the team's needs are.

I've said plenty I'm in favor of using this whole offseason - that includes the draft - to spoil Darnold. I've also said the exception to that is finding someone to generate, without the need to blitz, a fairly consistent pass rushing threat (no one gets in there every snap). My reason is onefold: you can't just say "We'll go shopping for that next year" at the impact pass rusher store. Teams who have them don't let those players go unless (a) they're past their prime, or (b) you're still burning a high draft pick for the privilege of making him a way high priced veteran contract.

I mean look at the contract Za'Darius Smith just got. Are you freaking kidding me -- $16.5MM/year for this guy? Hey, maybe he proves he's worth it, but based on his career to date that's just stupid. What's was his banner year (by far)? 8.5 sacks (29th in the league) and 60 QB pressures (17th not among all defenders, but just narrowly among edge defenders, according to PFF). It means he's a really solid player, but that's not the elite pass rusher we're looking for with a top 3 selection. Yet that's the best the league typically offers among (non-tagged) edge rusher UFAs while still in their mid-20s. The only other alternative is crossing your fingers and hoping to find a Danielle Hunter in the 3rd round (which was available to us when our college prospect guru GM took Lorenzo Mauldin a handful of slots earlier). 

[Philc1]

8 hours ago, jgb said:

First paragraph: “the only way to beat Brady”

Second paragraph: “occasionally other stuff works.”

we desperately need better trolls on here. Bring back PatsFanTX

Don’t you have a Ryan Tannehill fan club meeting to go to?

[jgb]

40 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

Don’t you have a Ryan Tannehill fan club meeting to go to?

Yup we have T-Shirts and everything

[RSJ]

Pressure up the middle is what beats a good QB. So the sacks number is overrated to a large degree. If a QB cant step up it effects his accuracy.


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

[Dunnie]

The one sentence in bold is as good a retort as there is in the thread.  4 or 5 seconds to throw and most backup QBs looks like all-pros.

However .. Brady posseses the shortest time getting rid of the ball and still wins at an alarming rate.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk

[Villain The Foe]

22 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

While I'm sympathetic to the emotions it brings up, in terms of what we should do today the past history is not relevant. The teams' needs are what the team's needs are.

The teams needs are to surround the franchise QB with weapons and protection in order to score points. We've been in a passing league for atleast a decade and yet the Jets still dont get it. 

The Jets must produce points. A pass rush or a top 10 defense wont matter if we're constantly in the bottom 10 in offense. Points can also be used as defense. Scoring points can help make a team 1 dimensional which makes an opposing teams offense more predictable in certain moments if they have to move the ball to score. Simply having the ability to outscore your opponent is using offense as your defense. Here's an example. 

The Chiefs had 2 pass rushers, Pro Bowler Dee Ford and All Pro Chris Jones (actually 3 if you count Justin Houston). These two players combined were responsible for 28.5 Sacks, 32 Tackles For Loss and 58 QB Hits in 2018. 

As a comparison, Von Miller and "rookie sensation" Bradley Chubb combined for 26.5 Sacks, 28 Tackles For Loss and 47 QB Hits in 2018. 

What did these teams give up on defense in terms of "points per game"? 

Chiefs: 26.3 points per game

Broncos: 21.8 Points per game

For comparison purposes...

Jets: 27.6 points per game. 

 

Lets see what the offense looks like with these teams in terms of "points per game".

Chiefs: 35.3 points per game

Broncos: 20.6 points per game

Jets: 20.8 points per game. 

 

What team(s) made the playoffs?

Only the Kansas City Chiefs. 

 

Why? Because they score points. 

 

It's no different with the Rams. Lets use them as an example. 
 

They have arguably the best Football player in the league in Aaron Donald, picked up Suh in Free Agency AND traded for Fowler mid season. 

The Rams defense still allowed 24 points per game. 

What did the Rams offense produce? 33 points per game. 

 

 

Here's another statistic. Of the top 10 PPG allowed defenses, 6 of them made the playoffs. Bears (1st) Ravens (2nd) Texans (4th) Dallas (6th) Pats (7th) and Colts (10th). 

Only three of those teams also had top 10 offenses: Pats (4th) Colts (5th) and Bears (10th). 

The team with the best defense in the league but was the lowest in the top 10 lost in the first round (Bears lost to Philly 16-15). The defense did their part, but it was the offense that couldnt produce points against and Eagles defense that allowed 21.8 ppg during the regular season. 

Both teams with top 5 offenses moved on to the 2nd round of the playoffs (Pats had a bye, Colts beat Houston's 4th ranked defense 21-7)

2nd ranked defense Baltimore lost to 6th ranked offense Chargers 23-17. 

6th ranked Dallas beat a very mediocre Seahawks team that stumbled into the playoffs.

 

2nd round

every team with a HIGHER OFFENSIVE RANKING won their playoff game (Pats beat Chargers, KC beat Indy, Rams beat Dallas & N.O. beat Philly). 

Championship games

EVERY TEAM is within the top 4 in offense. 

Pats beat Chiefs, Rams beat Saints

SB

The team with a top 4 offense and top 10 defense wins the game. Keep in mind that this was a team that didnt have an elite pass rusher and blitzed as much as the Jets did. And Ironically, what are the Pats known for? For being able to score points, develop offensive linemen with the best Oline coach in the game and a bend but dont break defense. Not some elite pass rush. 

 

To conclude. If you're talking "The teams' needs are what the team's needs are" then it's clear that the needs for this team is offense given that the Jets rank 23rd in offense. 

And like with Denver, you can have not 1, but 2 pass rushers and not smell the playoffs because your offense is ranked 24th in the league. 

 

The most important need is to provide offensive weapons and protection for Darnold. Pass rusher is a luxury for those who can actually score points. If you cant score points then your pass rush means nothing. 

 

 

[Sperm Edwards]

5 minutes ago, Villain The Foe said:

The teams needs are to surround the franchise QB with weapons and protection in order to score points. We've been in a passing league for atleast a decade and yet the Jets still dont get it. 

The Jets must produce points. A pass rush or a top 10 defense wont matter if we're constantly in the bottom 10 in offense. Points can also be used as defense. Scoring points can help make a team 1 dimensional which makes an opposing teams offense more predictable in certain moments if they have to move the ball to score. Simply having the ability to outscore your opponent is using offense as your defense. Here's an example. 

The Chiefs had 2 pass rushers, Pro Bowler Dee Ford and All Pro Chris Jones. These two players combined were responsible for 28.5 Sacks, 32 Tackles For Loss and 58 QB Hits in 2018. 

As a comparison, Von Miller and "rookie sensation" Bradley Chubb combined for 26.5 Sacks, 28 Tackles For Loss and 47 QB Hits in 2018. 

What did these teams give up on defense in terms of "points per game"? 

Chiefs: 26.3 points per game

Broncos: 21.8 Points per game

For comparison purposes...

Jets: 27.6 points per game. 

 

Lets see what the offense looks like with these teams in terms of "points per game".

Chiefs: 35.3 points per game

Broncos: 20.6 points per game

Jets: 20.8 points per game. 

 

What team(s) made the playoffs?

Only the Kansas City Chiefs. 

 

Why? Because they score points. 

 

It's no difference with the Rams. Lets use them as an example. 
 

They have arguably the best Football player in the league in Aaron Donald, picked up Suh in Free Agency AND traded for Fowler mid season. 

The Rams defense still allowed 24 points per game. 

What did the Rams offense produce? 33 points per game. 

 

 

Here's another statistic. Of the top 10 PPG allowed defenses, 6 of them made the playoffs. Bears (1st) Ravens (2nd) Texans (4th) Dallas (6th) Pats (7th) and Colts (10th). 

Only three of those teams also had top 10 offenses: Pats (4th) and Colts (5th) Bears (10th). 

The team with the best defense in the league but was the lowest in the top 10 lost in the first round (Bears lost to Philly 16-15). The defense did their part, but it was the offense that couldnt produce points against and Eagles defense that allowed 21.8 ppg during the regular season. 

Both teams with top 5 offenses moved on to the 2nd round of the playoffs (Pats had a bye, Colts beat Houston's 4th ranked defense 21-7)

2nd ranked defense Baltimore lost to 6th ranked offense Chargers 23-17. 

6th ranked Dallas beat a very mediocre Seahawks team that stumbled into the playoffs.

 

2nd round

every team with a HIGHER OFFENSIVE RANKING won their playoff game (Pats beat Chargers, KC beat Indy, Rams beat Dallas & N.O. beat Philly). 

Championship games

Better ranked offenses in both games almost won, if not for a Dee Ford  penalty that reversed a pick that would have iced the game for the Chiefs. 

Pats beat Chiefs Rams beat Saints

SB

The team with a top 5 offense and top 10 defense wins the game. Not to mention they also have arguably the best QB/HC ever. 

 

To conclude. If you're talking "Team needs being team needs" then it's clear that the needs for this team is offense given that the Jets rank 23rd in offense. 

And like with Denver, you can have not 1, but 2 pass rushers and not smell the playoffs because your offense is ranked 24th in the league. 

 

The most important need is to provide offensive weapons and protection for Darnold. Pass rusher is a luxury for those who can actually score points. If you cant score points then your pass rush means nothing. 

 

 

Holy f*** you type even more than I do.

I'm not saying offense isn't important. No one is saying or even hinting at that, so there's no point in citing statistics to show what everyone already knows.

Rather, I'm saying we're in the position we're in regardless of the pick stupidity that led there. If we're in this position because we kept drafting defense with our round 1 picks, OR if we're in this position because we took a bunch of offensive players early who didn't pan out, it makes no difference.

To use some examples, the Jets' offense is not worse off because bust CB Dee Milliner was taken instead of Chance Warmack. Drafting Laquon Treadwell instead of Darron Lee wouldn't materially change our current needs on offense either. Ditto Kevin White or Flowers over Leo. Yes there were also good players on offense available, but merely drafting "offense" instead doesn't automatically solve a problem; it only solves the problem if they're good (or great).

This team has needs on offense. They also have need(s) at pass rusher. Some of those needs are commonly filled after round 1 or in FA outright; some are atypically filled that way. A serious pass rusher with a young man's health and a contract well under $20MM/year falls well into the latter category.

If we use the top 3 pick on another Leo-level productive player, then yes we're better off moving down. But drafting a serious pass rusher at #3 > trading down and drafting a bodybuilder masquerading as a premiere WR prospect, plus with the extra pick taking a center worse than Paradis.  

[Villain The Foe]

25 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Holy f*** you type even more than I do.

I'm not saying offense isn't important. No one is saying or even hinting at that, so there's no point in citing statistics to show what everyone already knows.

Rather, I'm saying we're in the position we're in regardless of the pick stupidity that led there. If we're in this position because we kept drafting defense with our round 1 picks, OR if we're in this position because we took a bunch of offensive players early who didn't pan out, it makes no difference.

To use some examples, the Jets' offense is not worse off because bust CB Dee Milliner was taken instead of Chance Warmack. Drafting Laquon Treadwell instead of Darron Lee wouldn't materially change our current needs on offense either. Ditto Kevin White or Flowers over Leo. Yes there were also good players on offense available, but merely drafting "offense" instead doesn't automatically solve a problem; it only solves the problem if they're good (or great).

This team has needs on offense. They also have need(s) at pass rusher. Some of those needs are commonly filled after round 1 or in FA outright; some are atypically filled that way. A serious pass rusher with a young man's health and a contract well under $20MM/year falls well into the latter category.

If we use the top 3 pick on another Leo-level productive player, then yes we're better off moving down. But drafting a serious pass rusher at #3 > trading down and drafting a bodybuilder masquerading as a premiere WR prospect, plus with the extra pick taking a center worse than Paradis.  

You're saying that there's no point in me citing stats yet your 3rd paragraph shows that you clearly didnt understand why I cited the stats. 

The stats were cited to show that even great defenses or defenses with great pass rushers dont do anything without an offense that can score. 

I showed you a couple examples of teams that have more than 1 pass rusher on their team and at the end of the day it was the teams that were able to score that were ultimately successful. 

In otherwords, citing bust offensive players doesnt change the fact that even if our bust defensive players were in fact great players.....the Jets having a bottom 10 offense would be the reason why we're not making the playoffs, let alone winning championships. 

Im in the middle of creating a thread which will touch on this. 

[JustInFudge]

37 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Holy f*** you type even more than I do.

I'm not saying offense isn't important. No one is saying or even hinting at that, so there's no point in citing statistics to show what everyone already knows.

Rather, I'm saying we're in the position we're in regardless of the pick stupidity that led there. If we're in this position because we kept drafting defense with our round 1 picks, OR if we're in this position because we took a bunch of offensive players early who didn't pan out, it makes no difference.

To use some examples, the Jets' offense is not worse off because bust CB Dee Milliner was taken instead of Chance Warmack. Drafting Laquon Treadwell instead of Darron Lee wouldn't materially change our current needs on offense either. Ditto Kevin White or Flowers over Leo. Yes there were also good players on offense available, but merely drafting "offense" instead doesn't automatically solve a problem; it only solves the problem if they're good (or great).

This team has needs on offense. They also have need(s) at pass rusher. Some of those needs are commonly filled after round 1 or in FA outright; some are atypically filled that way. A serious pass rusher with a young man's health and a contract well under $20MM/year falls well into the latter category.

If we use the top 3 pick on another Leo-level productive player, then yes we're better off moving down. But drafting a serious pass rusher at #3 > trading down and drafting a bodybuilder masquerading as a premiere WR prospect, plus with the extra pick taking a center worse than Paradis.  

Bada boom bada bing, nobody is complaining about the approach if say, Harrison, Stewart, Hansen, Leggett all hit.   The issue is, they didnt.  This thought that it takes some philosophical genius to build a team is ridiculous.  Nobody has a silver bullet, it's just about making the right picks and getting the most out of those picks. 

Just in this thread alone I showed, all the Super Bowl teams mentioned, prioritize pass rushers in the draft.  ALL OF THEM!!! lmfao  

News flash: when Football teams take the field; they try to score points and stop the other team from scoring.  Cray, I know.

 

 

[redlichtie]

55 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Holy f*** you type even more than I do.

I'm not saying offense isn't important. No one is saying or even hinting at that, so there's no point in citing statistics to show what everyone already knows.

Rather, I'm saying we're in the position we're in regardless of the pick stupidity that led there. If we're in this position because we kept drafting defense with our round 1 picks, OR if we're in this position because we took a bunch of offensive players early who didn't pan out, it makes no difference.

To use some examples, the Jets' offense is not worse off because bust CB Dee Milliner was taken instead of Chance Warmack. Drafting Laquon Treadwell instead of Darron Lee wouldn't materially change our current needs on offense either. Ditto Kevin White or Flowers over Leo. Yes there were also good players on offense available, but merely drafting "offense" instead doesn't automatically solve a problem; it only solves the problem if they're good (or great).

This team has needs on offense. They also have need(s) at pass rusher. Some of those needs are commonly filled after round 1 or in FA outright; some are atypically filled that way. A serious pass rusher with a young man's health and a contract well under $20MM/year falls well into the latter category.

If we use the top 3 pick on another Leo-level productive player, then yes we're better off moving down. But drafting a serious pass rusher at #3 > trading down and drafting a bodybuilder masquerading as a premiere WR prospect, plus with the extra pick taking a center worse than Paradis.  

Good post, we are where we are.

Just blindly insisting on drafting offense because we drafted defence so many times before is not a strategy. 

[jeremy2020]

I think we found Mac's forum account.

[Villain The Foe]

2 hours ago, JiF said:

Bada boom bada bing, nobody is complaining about the approach if say, Harrison, Stewart, Hansen, Leggett all hit.   The issue is, they didnt.  This thought that it takes some philosophical genius to build a team is ridiculous.  Nobody has a silver bullet, it's just about making the right picks and getting the most out of those picks. 

Just in this thread alone I showed, all the Super Bowl teams mentioned, prioritize pass rushers in the draft.  ALL OF THEM!!! lmfao  

News flash: when Football teams take the field; they try to score points and stop the other team from scoring.  Cray, I know.

 

 

You follow up "Bada Boom" with talking about mid draft offensive players?????

 

The problem is the fact that most of the offensive talent ever drafted to this team come from 3rd round picks or lower. 

The probability of them not hitting is pretty damn high just given where they were drafted. So of course it's not a surprise. 

That fact is evident before we even get to Macc's lack of evaluation and an incompetent philosophical approach. 

 

And speaking of what football teams do on the field. This is what SUCCESSFUL teams actually do. 

Cray, I know. 

[Villain The Foe]

2 hours ago, redlichtie said:

Good post, we are where we are.

Just blindly insisting on drafting offense because we drafted defence so many times before is not a strategy. 

Blindly assuming that someone is saying this is not a good way to post. 

 

Im talking to fellow Jets fans though, so no surprise. 

 

Blindly seems to be what Macc is doing everytime he makes draft picks. Maybe we should get someone in here who know's WTF they're doing. 

[redlichtie]

4 minutes ago, Villain The Foe said:

Blindly assuming that someone is saying this is not a good way to post. 

 

Im talking to fellow Jets fans though, so no surprise. 

 

Blindly seems to be what Macc is doing everytime he makes draft picks. Maybe we should get someone in here who know's WTF they're doing. 

Blindly assuming I was referring to you is also not a good way to post

[Villain The Foe]

40 minutes ago, redlichtie said:

Blindly assuming I was referring to you is also not a good way to post

Except you commented on a quote which was a response to me. 

So either you were indirectly referring to my position, or generally thinking based on sperms response that folks were blindly insisting on something...which, either way, wasnt the case.

[redlichtie]

6 hours ago, Villain The Foe said:

Except you commented on a quote which was a response to me. 

So either you were indirectly referring to my position, or generally thinking based on sperms response that folks were blindly insisting on something...which, either way, wasnt the case.

My god, we are an over sensitive soul aren’t we?

I was quoting a post by SE , not you. There is no extrapolation to be made that it was in anyway an oblique dig at you. 

His general point was one I agree with and it is a fact, which I made as an aside, that many Jet fans(the same ones you refer so disparagingly to in replying to my post) do indeed  blindly insist on drafting offense over defemse, with no great justification or analysis, just simply because. Which is stupid. It is a general viewpoint  frequently expressed that I personally dislike that is not specific to you or any other named poster. If you are telling me that those arguments have never existed on here them i’m afraid I have to respectfully disagree.

To be clear, I was thinking neither of you specifically or any other individual poster. If you  are not one of those posters then so what?

 If you are? Well then yes  it probably stung. 

There are valid arguments either way and for the avoidance of doubt anyone constructing a reasoned and well thought out argument for or against a particylar draft philosophy, whether I agree with it or disagree,  is far more preferable in my opinion than the kind of ‘he sucks, we suck,fire everyone’ nonsense that just pollutes the board and ruins good and interesting dialogue. 

So it would appear you are the one here making blind and inaccurate assumptions , forwhat reason I don’t know. But I can assure you, if I had a point to make with you about something you said specifically I would make it directly with you.(as I am currently doing) The fact I ageeed with a poster that you may be in the midst of a difference of opinion with is just tough I’m  afraid. 

Opinions & a***holes etc

[Villain The Foe]

4 hours ago, redlichtie said:

My god, we are an over sensitive soul aren’t we?

No. Just stating the facts. 
 

And as I stated, you made a general statement based on a quote from SE that you agreed with, which that quote was in response to me. Your thoughts based on that quote wasnt what occurred, hence my response. It was clarification, not sensitivity. 

If we're not sensitive souls then we should be able to discuss this without sensitivity right? 

I wont read the rest of what you wrote given that you didnt have to go through any explanations. I was just providing the facts. 

[redlichtie]

42 minutes ago, Villain The Foe said:

No. Just stating the facts. 
 

And as I stated, you made a general statement based on a quote from SE that you agreed with, which that quote was in response to me. Your thoughts based on that quote wasnt what occurred, hence my response. It was clarification, not sensitivity. 

If we're not sensitive souls then we should be able to discuss this without sensitivity right? 

I wont read the rest of what you wrote given that you didnt have to go through any explanations. I was just providing the facts. 

I’m sorry but you’ve reached the point where you are confusing me with someone who gives a f*ck

crack on fella

[Bugg]

On 3/27/2019 at 2:35 PM, Villain The Foe said:

Gotcha. 

I dont think that it's as narrow-minded as you've perceived it, as it's just an alternative way of looking at things. 

 

Neither side are wrong here. The Jets need a pass rusher and the Jets need offensive talent. I think that folks who stand firmly or their respective sides are presenting respectable information/arguments. 

Many of us who agree with the examination do so because it also shows that offense does play a major role in the success of teams that may not have a pass rush. What we're tired of is the narrow-mindedness of the front office and their continuous investments to the defensive side of the ball when it comes to premium draft picks. 

Honestly, If the Jets didnt draft defense with 9 of their 11 1st round picks since 2007, with those 2 offensive picks both being QB's that they moved up in the draft to take, many folks wouldnt be as adamant about trading down and getting more draft picks in order to provide quality draft picks to the offense. 

And you're right about pass rushers. That's a position you generally have to get early. Guys like Danielle Hunter (3rd round) and Demarcus Lawrence (2nd round) are rare. However, 3 of those 9 defensive 1st round picks since 2007 were defensive ends. The Jets have flopped at the position, but it's to the point that pretty much every 1st round pick is a defensive pick and when they dont work out they'll use another 1st round pick to try again, all while dismissing the QB's they just gave away a load of picks for. There has to be a balance. Somewhere during this journey we're going to have to say that Sam Darnold is more important than any defensive rookie given what we traded in order to draft him. 

In otherwords, it's not about that one good veteran lineman on a fluke down season, but more about us knowing that next year there will be that "sexy rookie cornerback that we cant pass up". It's always something not to invest in the offense, and we ultimately dont want to repeat history. 

Every year we've heard about how there isnt an offensive player worth the pick at that position, then a few years go by and we look back at that draft and now only do we see offensive players worth that position, but they're much better than the defensive player we picked. 

The question that I have is this, when does the offense become important outside of having to trade away a bunch of draft picks in order to draft a QB that we have a history of never supporting with drafted young talent? 

If we draft Bosa/Allen this year, and Trumaine Johnson and whomever else we have at CB crashes and burn and the defense needs a CB and next year there is considered a great CB class, does CB now become more important than an offensive skillset position or the offensive line? 

When does it stop being about the defense, until we finally hit? More importantly, when does it become about the QB that we gave away a 1st and 3 2nd round picks for? When do we show him how important he is to the franchise? 

 

2.8 SECONDS; GET TO THE QB OR MAKE HE THROW EARLIER THAN THAT, AND YOU HAVE A GOOD DEFENSE. THE REST IS DETAILS.

Sacks are sexy and wonderful, jackpots midgame.  But they aren't the sole reason you do or do not have a good defense. Make Qbs throw before they want to and you are doing your job . 

My problem with the Jets' entire philosophy since Rex Ryan has been this myth DBs and especially corners matter. They don't. It's roster filler with scheme. Good QBs are going to get more than 2.8 seconds and find someone when the play breaks down (in part why Bell is such a good pickup). Under the NFL's rules good defenses are going to fail and decent QBs are going to approach completing at a 65+% clip. There is no such animal as a "shutdown corner" since Revis 1.0. Today most DBs are receivers who couldn't catch in high school or college or they'd be receivers. But they all got cool names like Ha Ha and Greedy, so...

As to scheme-Bowles goes mostly zone, and then Maccagnan signs and overpays Trumaine Johnson to be a press/man corner. CAN ANYONE EXPLAIN THIS  SH!T? Didn't look like Johnson could cover a traffic cone either way, but I digress..

Bosa on the other hand gives you a pass rush without blitzing, and cuts into the 2.8. The Kentucky Kid worries me because he has the workout warrior whiff. While Bosa would be a great pick, if he isn't there the OL has been the rancid social disease-ridden cleft palate club-footed stepdaughter with a heroin problem and a learning disorder under Maccagnan and that has to stop right now. 

[Sperm Edwards]

17 hours ago, Villain The Foe said:

You're saying that there's no point in me citing stats yet your 3rd paragraph shows that you clearly didnt understand why I cited the stats. 

The stats were cited to show that even great defenses or defenses with great pass rushers dont do anything without an offense that can score. 

I showed you a couple examples of teams that have more than 1 pass rusher on their team and at the end of the day it was the teams that were able to score that were ultimately successful. 

In otherwords, citing bust offensive players doesnt change the fact that even if our bust defensive players were in fact great players.....the Jets having a bottom 10 offense would be the reason why we're not making the playoffs, let alone winning championships. 

Im in the middle of creating a thread which will touch on this. 

I don't think I said that. Rather, showing a handful of examples even doesn't prove some rule that cannot be broken. It merely suggests (different from proves) a present trend, and does so without enough context or allowance that the trend can and will be broken, perhaps as early as this season. It equates all other factors that aren't mentioned as though they are effectively identical, when this is of course not the case.

When you look at so few team results, which take place over so few actual games, you can't make conclusions as broadly as 2+2 always equalling 4. There are plenty of teams that have put up big offense numbers and missed the playoffs.

Individual examples are nice, but the fact is there isn't some automatic rule that a top 10 (or top 5) offense always makes the playoffs. If that was the case then explain so many Saints' top-3 offenses leading to 7-9 records (4x in a very recent 5 year span). Would they have still been as unsuccessful if they had one or two successful pass rushers? Of course not. In fact the one year they broke that mold with an 11-5 record is when they had a pair of 12-sack defenders; the other 4 years the team total barely reached 30. That's just sacks, not even pressures on top of that.

And I say this even though I fully agree the team should be far more targeted than it's been on surrounding its young QB with every advantage it can.

All I'm suggesting is this piece to the puzzle can't be simply added when you're finally ready (not unlike drafting a QB); you have to get that player when the opportunity is there, even if it's a year before you'd ideally like to time it. This is part of the price of using 4 high draft picks on a QB with only a 4 year window of his having a comparatively low salary.

[JustInFudge]

15 hours ago, Villain The Foe said:

You follow up "Bada Boom" with talking about mid draft offensive players?????

 

The problem is the fact that most of the offensive talent ever drafted to this team come from 3rd round picks or lower. 

The probability of them not hitting is pretty damn high just given where they were drafted. So of course it's not a surprise. 

That fact is evident before we even get to Macc's lack of evaluation and an incompetent philosophical approach. 

 

And speaking of what football teams do on the field. This is what SUCCESSFUL teams actually do. 

Cray, I know. 

Your boy Dorsey only selects mid-round offensive players and it's worked out pretty well.

Hot take otherwise. 

[Villain The Foe]

1 hour ago, redlichtie said:

I’m sorry but you’ve reached the point where you are confusing me with someone who gives a f*ck

crack on fella

Damn,...sensitive.