Jump to content
choon328

Drafting Odds

Recommended Posts

12 hours ago, choon328 said:

I'm a person who believes the draft is really over hyped as far as people thinking that they should get 3-5 starters every year or else the draft is a failure. With that being said I did my own informal research. I looked at Rounds 3-7 from the 2012-2016 drafts. I used 5 years because I felt like that was a big enough sample size to get a true reading from the data. I counted up how many players from each round in those years became consistent starters in the NFL. That doesn't mean they're good or bad it just means that they started consistently. Obviously this is subjective so there may be some players that people would add or takeaway from the list I came up with. Either way I think the result would be negligible. Then I counted the total picks from each round and averaged them together to get a "Hit %" for each round. Here's what I came up with:

Round 3: 47 starters selected, 174 players selected total. 27% Hit rate

Round 4: 30 starters selected, 187 players selected total. 16% Hit rate

Round 5: 21 starters selected, 184 players selected total. 11% Hit rate

Round 6: 16 starters selected, 202 players selected total. 8% Hit rate

Round 7: 8 starters selected, 206 players selected total. 4% Hit rate

 

44 Pro Bowlers were selected over those 5 years in rounds 3-7. 953 players were selected in those 5 drafts combined. The chance of drafting a Pro Bowl player in rounds 3-7 is less than 5%.

 

Round 4-7 are basically a waste of time. The goal with those picks should be to either use them to move up into the top 3 rounds or trade them for players that are already in the league. 

Basically you have to hit on your 1st and 2nd round pick bc more likely then not you won't find a single starter past those rounds. Of course there is always that slim chance but it's not likely.

This is also why I'm a proponent of trading down and getting as many picks in the first 3 rounds as possible over the next couple of years.

Exactly. Good work putting this together.  

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, Darnold Schwarzenegger said:

2018_05.21_UDFA_Chart.jpg.52fd105b08787ef49273028713c1efeb.jpg

there were more 2017 regular contributors from UDFAs (133) than from players drafted in the fifth, sixth, and seventh rounds combined (117 total).

 

That makes alot of sense though. 

About 2% of eligible players get drafted, making the other 98% of players UDFA 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites



Content Partnership

Yes Network

Site Sponsor

MILE-Social - NJ Social Media & SEO company
×
×
  • Create New...