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choon328

Drafting Odds

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2 hours ago, choon328 said:

I'm a person who believes the draft is really over hyped as far as people thinking that they should get 3-5 starters every year or else the draft is a failure. With that being said I did my own informal research. I looked at Rounds 3-7 from the 2012-2016 drafts. I used 5 years because I felt like that was a big enough sample size to get a true reading from the data. I counted up how many players from each round in those years became consistent starters in the NFL. That doesn't mean they're good or bad it just means that they started consistently. Obviously this is subjective so there may be some players that people would add or takeaway from the list I came up with. Either way I think the result would be negligible. Then I counted the total picks from each round and averaged them together to get a "Hit %" for each round. Here's what I came up with:

Round 3: 47 starters selected, 174 players selected total. 27% Hit rate

Round 4: 30 starters selected, 187 players selected total. 16% Hit rate

Round 5: 21 starters selected, 184 players selected total. 11% Hit rate

Round 6: 16 starters selected, 202 players selected total. 8% Hit rate

Round 7: 8 starters selected, 206 players selected total. 4% Hit rate

 

44 Pro Bowlers were selected over those 5 years in rounds 3-7. 953 players were selected in those 5 drafts combined. The chance of drafting a Pro Bowl player in rounds 3-7 is less than 5%.

 

Round 4-7 are basically a waste of time. The goal with those picks should be to either use them to move up into the top 3 rounds or trade them for players that are already in the league. 

Basically you have to hit on your 1st and 2nd round pick bc more likely then not you won't find a single starter past those rounds. Of course there is always that slim chance but it's not likely.

This is also why I'm a proponent of trading down and getting as many picks in the first 3 rounds as possible over the next couple of years.

Or....when you get a chance to draft in the top three or four, you stay there and take more of a cant miss guy.

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1 hour ago, greenwave81 said:

Not sure how you derived that opinion from what the OP posted because it says nothing to support  your claim. 

In actuality, since the OP did not break down where in the individual rounds the players were selected, what the OP posted would suggest that you’d be better off with multiple picks in a given round rather than a single pick as the odds of finding a starter would be additive. 

Unless you're getting five third rounders etc, youre basically saying that getting TWO five to one shots instead of getting an almost surefire talent at the tippy top of the draft.

The chart is a thing for a reason.

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34 minutes ago, NYs Stepchild said:

Those can't miss guys miss like 40% of the time...That's the problem. 

Draft chart. Broken.

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