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choon328

Drafting Odds

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I'm a person who believes the draft is really over hyped as far as people thinking that they should get 3-5 starters every year or else the draft is a failure. With that being said I did my own informal research. I looked at Rounds 3-7 from the 2012-2016 drafts. I used 5 years because I felt like that was a big enough sample size to get a true reading from the data. I counted up how many players from each round in those years became consistent starters in the NFL. That doesn't mean they're good or bad it just means that they started consistently. Obviously this is subjective so there may be some players that people would add or takeaway from the list I came up with. Either way I think the result would be negligible. Then I counted the total picks from each round and averaged them together to get a "Hit %" for each round. Here's what I came up with:

Round 3: 47 starters selected, 174 players selected total. 27% Hit rate

Round 4: 30 starters selected, 187 players selected total. 16% Hit rate

Round 5: 21 starters selected, 184 players selected total. 11% Hit rate

Round 6: 16 starters selected, 202 players selected total. 8% Hit rate

Round 7: 8 starters selected, 206 players selected total. 4% Hit rate

 

44 Pro Bowlers were selected over those 5 years in rounds 3-7. 953 players were selected in those 5 drafts combined. The chance of drafting a Pro Bowl player in rounds 3-7 is less than 5%.

 

Round 4-7 are basically a waste of time. The goal with those picks should be to either use them to move up into the top 3 rounds or trade them for players that are already in the league. 

Basically you have to hit on your 1st and 2nd round pick bc more likely then not you won't find a single starter past those rounds. Of course there is always that slim chance but it's not likely.

This is also why I'm a proponent of trading down and getting as many picks in the first 3 rounds as possible over the next couple of years.

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30 minutes ago, Gunnails said:

What be the hit rate for  rounds 1-3?

I didn't go as in depth with round 1 and round 2 but the little I did looked like Round 1 was over 60%, round 2 was right around 50%. But I didn't do as much research for those rounds.

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Some of these stats are fine but you simply cannot over look players in lower rounds being huge contributors if not stars, you hope for maybe a starter or back up or special teams guy but you also get great players as well.

Brady

Antonio Brown

Tyreek Hill

Travis Kelce

Geno atkins

George kittle

If you have a really good draft year you improve your team dramatically (see new orleans)

You have to at least be semi competent, you cannot free agent everyone.  You also need to build depth via the draft.

The best players in this league are drafted, are good and then are retained by their teams.  Free agency is usually full of guys ast their prime, guys teams think are no longer good or guys with perceived problems.

It is also important cap wise.  You need some players on those rookie deals.

 

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11 minutes ago, Darnold Schwarzenegger said:

2018_05.21_UDFA_Chart.jpg.52fd105b08787ef49273028713c1efeb.jpg

there were more 2017 regular contributors from UDFAs (133) than from players drafted in the fifth, sixth, and seventh rounds combined (117 total).

 

Deceptive... many times more UDFAs than draft picks per round

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10 minutes ago, Darnold Schwarzenegger said:

2018_05.21_UDFA_Chart.jpg.52fd105b08787ef49273028713c1efeb.jpg

there were more 2017 regular contributors from UDFAs (133) than from players drafted in the fifth, sixth, and seventh rounds combined (117 total).

 

That is a lot due to the pool of players.  rounds 5,6,7 maybe 115 players or so? (with comp picks)

UDFA - each team brings in what 10 guys? pool of 300 or more guys or so?  Probably more UDFAs come to teams than guys they draft in a given draft?

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1 hour ago, choon328 said:

Round 4-7 are basically a waste of time. The goal with those picks should be to either use them to move up into the top 3 rounds or trade them for players that are already in the league. 

I wish we did this more, especially when we have so much cap space last few years. Problem is GMs are overconfident in their ability to pick players. I guess that comes with the territory of being a NFL GM.

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One 7th round draft pick puts you at the head of the list of 300 or more UDFA's.  Picks have value.

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2 hours ago, choon328 said:

I'm a person who believes the draft is really over hyped as far as people thinking that they should get 3-5 starters every year or else the draft is a failure. With that being said I did my own informal research. I looked at Rounds 3-7 from the 2012-2016 drafts. I used 5 years because I felt like that was a big enough sample size to get a true reading from the data. I counted up how many players from each round in those years became consistent starters in the NFL. That doesn't mean they're good or bad it just means that they started consistently. Obviously this is subjective so there may be some players that people would add or takeaway from the list I came up with. Either way I think the result would be negligible. Then I counted the total picks from each round and averaged them together to get a "Hit %" for each round. Here's what I came up with:

Round 3: 47 starters selected, 174 players selected total. 27% Hit rate

Round 4: 30 starters selected, 187 players selected total. 16% Hit rate

Round 5: 21 starters selected, 184 players selected total. 11% Hit rate

Round 6: 16 starters selected, 202 players selected total. 8% Hit rate

Round 7: 8 starters selected, 206 players selected total. 4% Hit rate

 

44 Pro Bowlers were selected over those 5 years in rounds 3-7. 953 players were selected in those 5 drafts combined. The chance of drafting a Pro Bowl player in rounds 3-7 is less than 5%.

 

Round 4-7 are basically a waste of time. The goal with those picks should be to either use them to move up into the top 3 rounds or trade them for players that are already in the league. 

Basically you have to hit on your 1st and 2nd round pick bc more likely then not you won't find a single starter past those rounds. Of course there is always that slim chance but it's not likely.

This is also why I'm a proponent of trading down and getting as many picks in the first 3 rounds as possible over the next couple of years.

Or....when you get a chance to draft in the top three or four, you stay there and take more of a cant miss guy.

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1 hour ago, Gastineau Lives said:

Or....when you get a chance to draft in the top three or four, you stay there and take more of a cant miss guy.

It’s why id sooner stay Pat at 3.

 

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2 hours ago, BurnleyJet said:

It’s why id sooner stay Pat at 3.

 

Unless your only dropping a few spots. But, if a guy like Bosa drops to #3 take him. I don't know what to think about Josh Allen? SEC, his production was through the roof, he seems to be a football player through & through unlike Gholston. With Greg Williams on board if we do select Allen I'm all in. 

There are some very good players in this draft, Sweat, the Iowa TE, Oliver, Jonah, trading back isn't the end of the world here. We could use a 2nd round stud Center! 

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nice chart.  imo another factor is the way these guys are being limited in training.  it's not like teams can sit on a players and develop him to the fullest anymore.  the players need to come almost ready to play.  the chart only goes back 5 years so it takes into account the training camp differences of this era.

as for the draft, imo if there's a good deal, the jets should trade down.  they could possibly fix the oline at the expense of not drafting bosa or allen or whoever.

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7 hours ago, Gastineau Lives said:

Or....when you get a chance to draft in the top three or four, you stay there and take more of a cant miss guy.

Not sure how you derived that opinion from what the OP posted because it says nothing to support  your claim. 

In actuality, since the OP did not break down where in the individual rounds the players were selected, what the OP posted would suggest that you’d be better off with multiple picks in a given round rather than a single pick as the odds of finding a starter would be additive. 

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Wait....so the higher a player was drafted, the better the odds he becomes a starter?  Wow, earth shattering.

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9 hours ago, Darnold Schwarzenegger said:

2018_05.21_UDFA_Chart.jpg.52fd105b08787ef49273028713c1efeb.jpg

there were more 2017 regular contributors from UDFAs (133) than from players drafted in the fifth, sixth, and seventh rounds combined (117 total).

 

That’s because teams bring in on average about 10-15 UDFAs each year vs. maybe 3-4 players drafted in the last 3 rounds.  

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Do trading 5th and 7th round picks get you into the top 3 rounds?  I dont think the value adds up, I dont know though.

Either way, just because the hit ratio is low doesnt mean they're not valuable.  If you do hit, you hypothetically have a player on the cheap for 4 years.  There's a lot value in that. 

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1 hour ago, greenwave81 said:

Not sure how you derived that opinion from what the OP posted because it says nothing to support  your claim. 

In actuality, since the OP did not break down where in the individual rounds the players were selected, what the OP posted would suggest that you’d be better off with multiple picks in a given round rather than a single pick as the odds of finding a starter would be additive. 

Unless you're getting five third rounders etc, youre basically saying that getting TWO five to one shots instead of getting an almost surefire talent at the tippy top of the draft.

The chart is a thing for a reason.

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4 hours ago, Jetster said:

Unless your only dropping a few spots. But, if a guy like Bosa drops to #3 take him. I don't know what to think about Josh Allen? SEC, his production was through the roof, he seems to be a football player through & through unlike Gholston. With Greg Williams on board if we do select Allen I'm all in. 

There are some very good players in this draft, Sweat, the Iowa TE, Oliver, Jonah, trading back isn't the end of the world here. We could use a 2nd round stud Center! 

Well that’s gamble, if you draft out and Allen turns into Von Miller your getting fired, if the guys you trade down for are just Jags.

I’d sooner take a chance with Allen personally. I’d only trade out for a boat load of picks. 

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12 hours ago, choon328 said:

I'm a person who believes the draft is really over hyped as far as people thinking that they should get 3-5 starters every year or else the draft is a failure. With that being said I did my own informal research. I looked at Rounds 3-7 from the 2012-2016 drafts. I used 5 years because I felt like that was a big enough sample size to get a true reading from the data. I counted up how many players from each round in those years became consistent starters in the NFL. That doesn't mean they're good or bad it just means that they started consistently. Obviously this is subjective so there may be some players that people would add or takeaway from the list I came up with. Either way I think the result would be negligible. Then I counted the total picks from each round and averaged them together to get a "Hit %" for each round. Here's what I came up with:

Round 3: 47 starters selected, 174 players selected total. 27% Hit rate

Round 4: 30 starters selected, 187 players selected total. 16% Hit rate

Round 5: 21 starters selected, 184 players selected total. 11% Hit rate

Round 6: 16 starters selected, 202 players selected total. 8% Hit rate

Round 7: 8 starters selected, 206 players selected total. 4% Hit rate

 

44 Pro Bowlers were selected over those 5 years in rounds 3-7. 953 players were selected in those 5 drafts combined. The chance of drafting a Pro Bowl player in rounds 3-7 is less than 5%.

 

Round 4-7 are basically a waste of time. The goal with those picks should be to either use them to move up into the top 3 rounds or trade them for players that are already in the league. 

Basically you have to hit on your 1st and 2nd round pick bc more likely then not you won't find a single starter past those rounds. Of course there is always that slim chance but it's not likely.

This is also why I'm a proponent of trading down and getting as many picks in the first 3 rounds as possible over the next couple of years.

Exactly. Good work putting this together.  

 

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11 hours ago, Darnold Schwarzenegger said:

2018_05.21_UDFA_Chart.jpg.52fd105b08787ef49273028713c1efeb.jpg

there were more 2017 regular contributors from UDFAs (133) than from players drafted in the fifth, sixth, and seventh rounds combined (117 total).

 

That makes alot of sense though. 

About 2% of eligible players get drafted, making the other 98% of players UDFA 

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10 hours ago, Gastineau Lives said:

Or....when you get a chance to draft in the top three or four, you stay there and take more of a cant miss guy.

Those can't miss guys miss like 40% of the time...That's the problem. 

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34 minutes ago, NYs Stepchild said:

Those can't miss guys miss like 40% of the time...That's the problem. 

Draft chart. Broken.

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36 minutes ago, NYs Stepchild said:

Those can't miss guys miss like 40% of the time...That's the problem. 

Shouldve sent Macc into orbit and gotten Reggie Mackenzie 

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