Greg Gabriel: The hot name to the Jets at #3 - Ed Oliver

[Barry McCockinner]

7 minutes ago, CTM said:

So the fact that he kills all the athletic bench marks which strongly suggest he'll be able to handle the stronger players in the NFL doesn't matter to you?

I'm just concerned that he could be swallowed up on running downs if he's lined up against the interior of an NFL offensive line. He's strong and athletic, great. Is that enough to overcome the weight disadvantage?

Edited April 23, 2019 by Barry McCockinner

[UnitedWhofans]

If they see Oliver as a DE/OLB then I think the pick makes a lot of sense. I saw video of Allen and I know the numbers are there but he didnt really stand out in the videos.

[Chrebetfan80]

really dont believe they will go oliver at 3.  if they do, its because everyone else they like is taken and they cant move back.  

 

it'll be williams at 3 if he's there. 

[Adoni Beast]

Just now, UnitedWhofans said:

If they see Oliver as a DE/OLB then I think the pick makes a lot of sense. I saw video of Allen and I know the numbers are there but he didnt really stand out in the videos.

Allen is good...but not great. His one real move is to beat the tackle on the outside with speed.

His pro comparison by scouts has been Anthony Barr who we obviously tried to sign. But, do we really use the third pick on anthony barr?

[choon328]

29 minutes ago, sec101row23 said:

Lol..you’re really lost on this one aren’t you?  There’s also a major difference between the positions they played.  This is getting comical reading some of your stuff. 

You think he's Aaron Donald but I'm lost? Haha

[UnitedWhofans]

4 minutes ago, Adoni Beast said:

Allen is good...but not great. His one real move is to beat the tackle on the outside with speed.

His pro comparison by scouts has been Anthony Barr who we obviously tried to sign. But, do we really use the third pick on anthony barr?

That's why I thought they would. But now maybe not. It seems that QW and Bosa are the two true top talents in this draft.  

One is injury prone, a bit of an a$$hole and would be a great fit for the Jets. 

The other checks all the marks but played only one year and would be annoying to Jets fans who whine about the edge.

[sec101row23]

34 minutes ago, choon328 said:

You think he's Aaron Donald but I'm lost? Haha

I’ve never said that.  Just laughing at your logic and total lack of understanding about all this.  

[playtowinthegame]

5 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Based on what?  Your feelings?

His legit ceiling is the next Aaron Donald based on both his stature as an undersized DT, college production and any/all available metrics regarding his athleticism.  Whether he achieves that ceiling is up for debate, but you really have no basis to be able to say his ceiling is any lower than that. 

 

That is your opinion, which you're primarily basing off of his metrics coming out of his pro day, however, Oliver's production in college wasn't anywhere near that of Aaron Donald. Almost always a player who sacks the quarterback in college puts up the same type of production at the pro level. Aaron Donald put up 29.5 sacks at the university of Pittsburgh in 52 games. Ed Oliver at Houston in the American Athletic Conference put up 8 sacks in 32 games. Not exactly the stuff that screams Aaron Donald. Odds are in my favor that when the games are being played (NOT pro day metrics) Ed Oliver isn't the next Aaron Donald. Maybe he's a good player, but not one worthy of the 3rd overall pick. 

[playtowinthegame]

3 hours ago, Barry McCockinner said:

I'm just concerned that he could be swallowed up on running downs if he's lined up against the interior of an NFL offensive line. He's strong and athletic, great. Is that enough to overcome the weight disadvantage?

A lot of these analytic types can't see the forest for the trees. They're blinded by his pro day. 

[Philc1]

3 hours ago, UnitedWhofans said:

If they see Oliver as a DE/OLB then I think the pick makes a lot of sense. I saw video of Allen and I know the numbers are there but he didnt really stand out in the videos.

Problem is Oliver was a nose tackle in college.  He obviously can’t play Nose in the pros so he would have to make a big adjustment as a rookie

[Jetsfan80]

21 minutes ago, playtowinthegame said:

 

That is your opinion, which you're primarily basing off of his metrics coming out of his pro day, however, Oliver's production in college wasn't anywhere near that of Aaron Donald. Almost always a player who sacks the quarterback in college puts up the same type of production at the pro level. Aaron Donald put up 29.5 sacks at the university of Pittsburgh in 52 games. Ed Oliver at Houston in the American Athletic Conference put up 8 sacks in 32 games. Not exactly the stuff that screams Aaron Donald. Odds are in my favor that when the games are being played (NOT pro day metrics) Ed Oliver isn't the next Aaron Donald. Maybe he's a good player, but not one worthy of the 3rd overall pick. 

Holy crap, have you even been reading the thread?  Context has been provided for this already.  He was asked to play Nose Tackle on 64 % of snaps, hence why the sack numbers weren't there.

 

Quote

Per SIS, Oliver lined up at nose tackle 64.2% of the time. Compare that to 44% for Christian Wilkins, 29.2% for Quinnen Williams, 0.3% for L.J. Collier and 0% for Zach Allen and you’ll understand why Oliver didn’t produce more pressure.

 

[Philc1]

12 minutes ago, playtowinthegame said:

A lot of these analytic types can't see the forest for the trees. They're blinded by his pro day. 

Oliver can ultimately become a very good 4-3 DE but he only has one pass rush move the bull rush he would need to relearn everything

 

Asking Oliver to transition from Nose Tackle to Outside Linebacker in a 3-4 is just way too much

[Jetsfan80]

14 minutes ago, playtowinthegame said:

A lot of these analytic types can't see the forest for the trees. They're blinded by his pro day. 

53 Tackles for Loss over 3 seasons.  Is that too much analytics for you?

[Philc1]

5 hours ago, choon328 said:

Against weak competition. Let's not act like he played in the SEC

I wonder who did? 

[Philc1]

4 hours ago, Untouchable said:

The people complaining about the level of talent Oliver faced would’ve probably passed on Khalil Mack.

Mack was clearly going to a 3-4 Olb

 

Where is Oliver going to play in a 3-4?  The guy played Nose his entire college career

[JustInFudge]

1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

53 Tackles for Loss over 3 seasons.  Is that too much analytics for you?

What I find funny as people are beating up Oliver over his production is, Williams and Bosa's really arent all that much better.  And the fact these dudes basically would have passed on JJ Watt, Deforest Buckner, Daron Payne, Sheldon Rankins, Marcell Dareus, etc. etc. etc. because of stats! 

 

[RobR]

5 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

Oliver can ultimately become a very good 4-3 DE but he only has one pass rush move the bull rush he would need to relearn everything

He also has a rip and spin which he uses even more than a bullrush.

[RobR]

6 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Holy crap, have you even been reading the thread?  Context has been provided for this already.  He was asked to play Nose Tackle on 64 % of snaps, hence why the sack numbers weren't there.

 

 

He even got the sack numbers wrong.

[JustInFudge]

4 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

I wonder who did? 

The guy who had a whole, 3 more sacks than Oliver his best season while playing DE for a team with NFL talent at every position?

 

[Untouchable]

3 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

Mack was clearly going to a 3-4 Olb

 

Where is Oliver going to play in a 3-4?  The guy played Nose his entire college career

I’d assume they would play him at both DE and OLB in base 3-4 looks.

In nickel and dime packages, put him at the 3-Tech with Leo at the nose.

[choon328]

1 minute ago, JiF said:

What I find funny as people are beating up Oliver over his production is, Williams and Bosa's really arent all that much better.  And the fact these dudes basically would have passed on JJ Watt, Deforest Buckner, Daron Payne, Sheldon Rankins, Marcell Dareus, etc. etc. etc. because of stats! 

 

It's a combination of stats and level of competition. Oliver lovers keep discounting who he played against. That matters more than you think.

[Philc1]

7 minutes ago, RobR said:

He also has a rip and spin which he uses even more than a bullrush.

Either way it’s a big transition he would have to make going from Nose to OLB

[Philc1]

6 minutes ago, Untouchable said:

I’d assume they would play him at both DE and OLB in base 3-4 looks.

In nickel and dime packages, put him at the 3-Tech with Leo at the nose.

After watching Coples get ruined I’m not a fan of taking interior DL and turning them into full time linebackers 

[Philc1]

8 minutes ago, JiF said:

The guy who had a whole, 3 more sacks than Oliver his best season while playing DE for a team with NFL talent at every position?

 

Why is QW not allowed to take credit “because Bama” but Jonah Williams is the next Brick even tho they were on the same team?

[CTJetsFan]

17 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

53 Tackles for Loss over 3 seasons.  Is that too much analytics for you?

While impressive, a lot of those stats last year came agains some weak opponents. Houston's conference is one of the weakest in FBS. Some games from last year

3.5 vs Rice: https://uhcougars.com/boxscore.aspx?id=3416&path=football

5 vs ECU https://uhcougars.com/boxscore.aspx?id=3421&path=football

 

[playtowinthegame]

I wouldn't hate trading back to the middle of the first round and drafting Ed Oliver, but to draft him with the 3rd overall pick would be borderline reckless. This fascination with Oliver is purely driven by his pro day. I am crossing my fingers Mac doesn't draft him with the 3rd overall pick. 

[Philc1]

5 minutes ago, CTJetsFan said:

While impressive, a lot of those stats last year came agains some weak opponents. Houston's conference is one of the weakest in FBS. Some games from last year

3.5 vs Rice: https://uhcougars.com/boxscore.aspx?id=3416&path=football

5 vs ECU https://uhcougars.com/boxscore.aspx?id=3421&path=football

 

You’re not scared of the Rice Rockets?

[Philc1]

Just now, playtowinthegame said:

I wouldn't hate trading back to the middle of the first round and drafting Ed Oliver, but to draft that him with the 3rd overall pick would be borderline reckless. This fascination with Oliver is purely driven by his pro day. I am crossing my fingers Mac doesn't draft that punk with the 3rd overall pick. 

It’s also the trendy thing to say Oliver is better than Bosa/QW/Allen

 

Rebel rebel

[JustInFudge]

2 minutes ago, choon328 said:

It's a combination of stats and level of competition. Oliver lovers keep discounting who he played against. That matters more than you think.

I'm an SEC homer and no, it really doesnt.

Here's the real and @RobR cant attest to this.  My initial hesitation was to downgrade Oliver because of his stats and lesser competition.  But then you watch the tape and his breakdowns and see how he was used vs. and how teams game planned for him and it's very obvious why he didnt have huge numbers.  Hard to beat constant triple teams and legit, triple teams.  Like the ball is snapped and everyone find Oliver type game plans...but yet, he did.  Often.  

Ironically, some of the best sack artists in recent history were all small school guys.  Ware - Troy, Allen - Idaho St., Mathis - Alabama A&M, Mack - Buffalo, Strahan - Texas Southern, Taylor- Akron, Glover - San Diego St.  It's crazy how the small school pass rushers have such success in the NFL...and not all of them put up crazy numbers and Houston is a much bigger school playing much better competition than the ones listed in this example. 

The issue here is; you're not able to separate the two and your focused on 1 stat, sacks.  Which is dumb, no offense.  80 gave you the reason.  65% of his snaps were out of position.  Meanwhile, the other big names basically only went after the QB and barely got to him significantly more than Oliver. 

[Jetsfan80]

11 minutes ago, CTJetsFan said:

While impressive, a lot of those stats last year came agains some weak opponents. Houston's conference is one of the weakest in FBS. Some games from last year

3.5 vs Rice: https://uhcougars.com/boxscore.aspx?id=3416&path=football

5 vs ECU https://uhcougars.com/boxscore.aspx?id=3421&path=football

  

I think its pretty damn impressive to get multiple TFL's in any game when you're playing NT and constantly facing double and triple teams, since he was the only guy on the defense that opposing offenses feared.

Khalil Mack had his biggest games against the likes of Miami (OH), UMASS, Akron and Kent State.  Aaron Donald racked up his big numbers against the likes of Utah and UCONN.  So who cares who the production comes against as long as you're getting it?

And its a lie to suggest Oliver never had big games against good teams.  He had 2 sacks and 2 TFLs against a Baker Mayfield-led Oklahoma.  He had 2 sacks and 3 TFL's against a 9-4 Louisville squad with Lamar Jackson at QB. 

Check, check, check.  All those boxes, checked.

[CTJetsFan]

Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

I think its pretty damn impressive to get multiple TFL's in any game when you're playing NT and constantly facing double and triple teams, since he was the only guy on the defense that opposing offense's feared.

Khalil Mack had his biggest games against the likes of Miami (OH), UMASS, Akron and Kent State.  Aaron Donald racked up his big numbers against the likes of Utah and UCONN.  So who cares who the production comes against as long as you're getting it?

And its a lie to suggest Oliver never had big games against good teams.  He had 2 sacks and 2 TFLs against a Baker Mayfield-led Oklahoma.  He had 2 sacks and 3 TFL's against a 9-4 Louisville squad with Lamar Jackson at QB. 

Check, check, check.  All those boxes, checked.

Can't disagree with the points you made.

[JustInFudge]

18 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

Why is QW not allowed to take credit “because Bama” but Jonah Williams is the next Brick even tho they were on the same team?

Jonah Williams is a Guard. 

[Jetsfan80]

16 minutes ago, playtowinthegame said:

I wouldn't hate trading back to the middle of the first round and drafting Ed Oliver, but to draft him with the 3rd overall pick would be borderline reckless. This fascination with Oliver is purely driven by his pro day. I am crossing my fingers Mac doesn't draft him with the 3rd overall pick. 

No, its not.  He was a top prospect all along, well before his workout numbers came available.  And those only made it all the more realistic that his skillset will translate into him being an elite pass-rushing DT/3-4 DE.  Only now are the media and fans catching up.

[JustInFudge]

6 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

No, its not.  He was a top prospect all along, well before his workout numbers came available.  And those only made it all the more realistic that his skillset will translate into him being an elite pass-rushing DT/3-4 DE.  Only now are the media and fans catching up.

It's like it doesnt matter how many ways you say it, the fall back is, WORK OUT WARRIOR!!!!

[playtowinthegame]

29 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

No, its not.  He was a top prospect all along, well before his workout numbers came available.  And those only made it all the more realistic that his skillset will translate into him being an elite pass-rushing DT/3-4 DE.  Only now are the media and fans catching up.

 

LMAO! You're just a Jetsfan80.

I will not be surprised in the least if Ed Oliver falls all the way to the Falcons.