Alka Posted April 21, 2019 Share Posted April 21, 2019 I'm not in love with the chart, because you "should" get a blue chip player at #3, and more likely a possible bust at #15. You also could get a bust at #3, and then have multiple picks to guess correctly. Trading down from #3 to #15, and then just getting #47 would make the Harvard chart an accurate exchange, but I would never make that deal unless I felt that there were no real blue chip players that I was interested in at #3, and even then I wouldn't make that deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slats Posted April 22, 2019 Share Posted April 22, 2019 On 4/21/2019 at 4:51 AM, GREENBEAN said: The Jets may have been using it, but the Colts sure weren't. I found it interesting that there was another chart that seemed legit. I read last year about another one but it was ridiculous and looked fan made so I just thught the Johnson chart was it. I always thought the back end of the Johnson chart was odd. 1 pt for any pick when the 1st is worth 3000 does not compute to me. Anyhoo... there's simply too much space between the beginning of FA and the draft huh? I look forward to seeing how this goes already. I read recently that all teams pretty much use a similar chart. The values in this Harvard chart seem way off. I think it's probably closer to the Johnson chart. With the rookie salary cap, I think those higher picks have increased, not decreased, in value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitonti Posted April 22, 2019 Share Posted April 22, 2019 On 4/20/2019 at 12:53 PM, Beerfish said: This was obviously put together by some kid who only got into Harvard because his mother sent in rowing regatta photos of him and made a large donation to the sports science library. you're thinking of Yale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
section314 Posted April 22, 2019 Share Posted April 22, 2019 On 4/20/2019 at 12:53 PM, Beerfish said: This was obviously put together by some kid who only got into Harvard because his mother sent in rowing regatta photos of him and made a large donation to the sports science library. Maybe, but pretty sure the student isn't Asian.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenwichjetfan Posted April 22, 2019 Share Posted April 22, 2019 On 4/20/2019 at 11:38 AM, nycdan said: This chart flattened the values way too much. Trading from 6 to 3 only costs the top pick in the 6th round? Moving down from 3 to 10 should only net a low 3rd rounder? Harvard admissions office failed with this kid. Maybe he was on the 'crew' team? He's a "fast rising" mind in NFL front offices working for the Browns right now, but yes, I agree this chart fails. There is no such thing as a singular value chart. For one thing, the fact that the chart isn't updated annually based on 250+ variables (all of the prospects) makes me skeptical of even looking at it. Also, these picks are not being traded on a standardized market, they're all bi-lateral transactions between two parties who attribute value to each of their own picks based on each pick's own set of independent variables. I get that using any singular item as the end-all-be-all is stupid and that these individual charts are nothing more than a guideline anyway, but even then, this Harvard one is particularly bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycdan Posted April 22, 2019 Share Posted April 22, 2019 11 minutes ago, greenwichjetfan said: He's a "fast rising" mind in NFL front offices working for the Browns right now, but yes, I agree this chart fails. There is no such thing as a singular value chart. For one thing, the fact that the chart isn't updated annually based on 250+ variables (all of the prospects) makes me skeptical of even looking at it. Also, these picks are not being traded on a standardized market, they're all bi-lateral transactions between two parties who attribute value to each of their own picks based on each pick's own set of independent variables. I get that using any singular item as the end-all-be-all is stupid and that these individual charts are nothing more than a guideline anyway, but even then, this Harvard one is particularly bad. Any chart should pretty much be a basic logarithmic curve with decreasing value gaps between picks as you go lower down in the draft. The shape of the curve is pretty much going to be based on past history. And then within that, there is a lot of variation based on player value, team valuation model, team need, and GM bias. In other words, they can be useful guidelines but, as you and many other have said, you can't overthink them. Applying 'secret statistical modelling' to this kind of chart is pretty much bullcrap and if NFL teams are buying into it, then sad for them. If anything, charts should be developed for each team, each season, based on the specifics of what is happening at that moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jetstream23 Posted April 22, 2019 Share Posted April 22, 2019 If I read that chart correctly it essentially says the Jets could trade the #3 overall pick to the Giants for the #6 and then one more pick in the middle/end of the 5th round, is that right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycdan Posted April 22, 2019 Share Posted April 22, 2019 59 minutes ago, jetstream23 said: If I read that chart correctly it essentially says the Jets could trade the #3 overall pick to the Giants for the #6 and then one more pick in the middle/end of the 5th round, is that right? The very bottom of the 5th round. You have it right. Welcome to Harvard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Losmeister Posted April 22, 2019 Share Posted April 22, 2019 snicker... Johnson Chart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UntouchableCrew Posted April 22, 2019 Share Posted April 22, 2019 On 4/20/2019 at 6:28 AM, GREENBEAN said: based on the Johnson chart we got ass raped last year. I'd do it again for what it's worth though. Love a good ass raping when a Sam Darnold comes out of it. Exactly. We obviously got murdered by any "statistical" analysis and had we made that trade for any position other than QB it would have been preposterous but sometimes you pay a premium for a franchise QB. If Darnold's upward trajectory continues it will be one of the best trades in Jets history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohio State NY Jets fan Posted April 23, 2019 Share Posted April 23, 2019 22 hours ago, nycdan said: Any chart should pretty much be a basic logarithmic curve with decreasing value gaps between picks as you go lower down in the draft. The shape of the curve is pretty much going to be based on past history. And then within that, there is a lot of variation based on player value, team valuation model, team need, and GM bias. In other words, they can be useful guidelines but, as you and many other have said, you can't overthink them. Applying 'secret statistical modelling' to this kind of chart is pretty much bullcrap and if NFL teams are buying into it, then sad for them. If anything, charts should be developed for each team, each season, based on the specifics of what is happening at that moment. agree, if the draft was an exact science the chart would make more sense but success rate in the NFL is not linear with draft position, there are many 2nd round players who outperform 1st rounders... almost changes with each pick... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.