Ignore rumors and study history

[maury77]

In order to make myself feel better about all the rumors of the Jets looking at Quinnen Williams or Ed Oliver at 3, I decided to look at the draft histories of Adam Gase and Gregg Williams when they were head coaches (and presumably were able to influence what players their respective teams chose)

Gregg Williams was Buffalo's head coach from 2001 to 2003.

Here are Buffalo's drafts during those periods:

https://www.footballdb.com/teams/nfl/buffalo-bills/draft/2001

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2002_draft.htm

https://www.footballdb.com/teams/nfl/buffalo-bills/draft/2003

Adam Gase was Miami's coach from 2016-2018

http://www.espn.com/blog/miami-dolphins/post/_/id/20929/2016-miami-dolphins-draft-picks-analysis-for-every-selection

http://www.espn.com/blog/miami-dolphins/post/_/id/25154/miami-dolphins-2017-draft-picks-analysis-for-every-selection

https://www.thephinsider.com/2018/4/28/17296418/2018-miami-dolphins-draft-results-complete-class

 

 

[Larz]

Executive bullet points please 

[maury77]

Between Gase & Williams, they drafted 6 interior DL over 6 drafts. The earliest selection was Ron Edwards, a 3rd rounder in 2001. 

They picked 4 edge rushers over 6 drafts, BUT all 4 were selected in the 1st and 2nd rounds. 

As far as OL, I'm only going to look at Gase because Williams is the DC now. Gase drafted 2 OL in 3 drafts, with Tunsil being the highest selection in round 1. 

Now, does all of this mean that Oliver or QW won't be the pick at 3? Of course not. However, a tiger never changes its stripes and, historically, both Gase and Williams seem to value edge rushers over interior DLs in the draft. 

 

[Larz]

Thanks ?

[Pcola]

But possibly having Dareus and Suh influenced a few of those drafts.  

Not saying that we don’t have competent starters there but if they feel that Williams or Oliver will have an Aaron Donald like impact, MacC is going to take BAP.

Taking Josh Allen is a huge risk.  He is not as talented as the three other defenders.  If he ends up like Fowler and Williams and Oliver dominate, it is going to be devastating.

Still think Atlanta May want to move up for Oliver. We’ll see.

[ljr]

being lazy, ... any way to have you list the 1's & 2's from each?

[Bruce Harper]

Is Cordea Tankersley still on the Phins?  If not he should be.

[Bruce Harper]

21 minutes ago, Pcola said:

But possibly having Dareus and Suh influenced a few of those drafts.  

Not saying that we don’t have competent starters there but if they feel that Williams or Oliver will have an Aaron Donald like impact, MacC is going to take BAP.

Taking Josh Allen is a huge risk.  He is not as talented as the three other defenders.  If he ends up like Fowler and Williams and Oliver dominate, it is going to be devastating.

Still think Atlanta May want to move up for Oliver. We’ll see.

I like Williams but don't agree about Allen.  Untalented DE got 17 sacks in the SEC last year.  Must have used some pretty good smoke and mirrors.  I think Bosa is a much bigger risk than Allen with his history of serious injuries.  Also, Oliver is a tackle who weighs 285 lbs.   How confident are you that will work in the pros?

[thebuzzardman]

35 minutes ago, Larz said:

Executive bullet points please 

For the current chief executive? 

 

* JETS WILL DRAFT FOOTBALL PLAYERS

[J_Smith]

Or we can ignore history and study rumors ?

[Losmeister]

42 minutes ago, maury77 said:

historically, both Gase and Williams seem to value edge rushers over interior DLs in the draft. 

nice..

 

nex time i see a deer , ima pull over and singto it

[maury77]

But possibly having Dareus and Suh influenced a few of those drafts.  
Not saying that we don’t have competent starters there but if they feel that Williams or Oliver will have an Aaron Donald like impact, MacC is going to take BAP.
Taking Josh Allen is a huge risk.  He is not as talented as the three other defenders.  If he ends up like Fowler and Williams and Oliver dominate, it is going to be devastating.
Still think Atlanta May want to move up for Oliver. We’ll see.

Dareus went to the Bills years after Williams was fired, but you have a point on Suh.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Lupz27]

Outside of Tunsil falling in Tanny’s lap Gase’s drafts don’t look good early pick wise.

[CTM]

1 hour ago, Larz said:

Executive bullet points please 

Lol, I was about to say this is like a homework assignment 

[Sammybighead]

If we take Ed Oliver I'm losing it

[jetsons]

8 hours ago, Bruce Harper said:

I like Williams but don't agree about Allen.  Untalented DE got 17 sacks in the SEC last year.  Must have used some pretty good smoke and mirrors.  I think Bosa is a much bigger risk than Allen with his history of serious injuries.  Also, Oliver is a tackle who weighs 285 lbs.   How confident are you that will work in the pros?

And Aaron Donald weighs 280... Oliver can play ANY D-Line position & Excel. 

[Peace Frog]

Too much plot. 

[choon328]

In 3 years Gase's Dolphins drafted:

11 Offensive Players

Tackle (1st)

RB (3rd, 5th)

WR (3rd, 6th, 7th)

QB (7th)

G (5th)

TE (2nd, 4th, 7th)

11 Defensive Players

CB (2nd, 3rd, 7th)

S (1st, 6th)

DE/Edge (1st)

MLB (2nd, 7th)

OLB (3rd)

DT (5th, 6th)

Specials

K (7th)

[choon328]

1 hour ago, jetsons said:

And Aaron Donald weighs 280... Oliver can play ANY D-Line position & Excel. 

Oliver weighed 281 lbs at the combine and that was after bulking up. He's probably going to play at 270-275 lbs and will have a hard time maintaining weight. He's a gap shooting 3 technique at that size that has to maintain that twitchiness or he will get swallowed up by NFL lineman. He can not play in a 3-4 unless he gets moved to Edge.

[TuscanyTile2]

With all due respect, the OP's premise seems a little forced.  You might be misinterpreting the patterns you're seeing.  Maybe they took BPA?  Maybe they chose 1 player over another because their ratings on both were close and they already had a good player at 1 of the positions? Or maybe the GM had the final say and wanted 1 guy over the guy Gase/Williams wanted?

Also, the Gregg Williams Buffalo HC era picks were from 2001-03, which is a long time ago.  You don't think any of his thinking has changed since then?

 

In short, my executive bullet point takeaway is:

Rumors > History

[maury77]

6 hours ago, choon328 said:

In 3 years Gase's Dolphins drafted:

11 Offensive Players

Tackle (1st)

RB (3rd, 5th)

WR (3rd, 6th, 7th)

QB (7th)

G (5th)

TE (2nd, 4th, 7th)

11 Defensive Players

CB (2nd, 3rd, 7th)

S (1st, 6th)

DE/Edge (1st)

MLB (2nd, 7th)

OLB (3rd)

DT (5th, 6th)

Specials

K (7th)

I'll break Williams down like this later. 

[maury77]

1 hour ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

With all due respect, the OP's premise seems a little forced.  You might be misinterpreting the patterns you're seeing.  Maybe they took BPA?  Maybe they chose 1 player over another because their ratings on both were close and they already had a good player at 1 of the positions? Or maybe the GM had the final say and wanted 1 guy over the guy Gase/Williams wanted?

Also, the Gregg Williams Buffalo HC era picks were from 2001-03, which is a long time ago.  You don't think any of his thinking has changed since then?

 

In short, my executive bullet point takeaway is:

Rumors > History

Well, that is the point of my original post. If the Jets have QW, Oliver and Allen all rated closely, what position have Gase and Williams favored in the past? If they value edge over interior DL, that might be the tiebreaker. 

Regarding 2001 to 2003 being a long time ago for Williams, let's take a look over the last couple of years. He coached Cleveland in 2017 & 18. He coached the Rams D for the 3 prior years. 

Who was playing edge on those defenses? Robert Quinn (1st rounder), Emmanuel Obhah (2nd rounder), Myles Garrett (1st overall pick). Granted, Williams did not make those picks and he did have 2 1st rounders at DL with the Rams, but the point is his defenses have tended to have high draft picks at the edge and I can't see him happily going into the season with Copeland and Jenkins as his starting edges. 

[Lith]

Gregg Williams 3 drafts with Buffalo:

Year	Rnd	Player	Pick	Pos	To	AP1	PB	St	CarAV	G	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Att	Yds	TD	Rec	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	College/Univ
2003	1	Willis McGahee	23	RB	2013	0	2	7	55	142						2095	8474	65	210	1339	5			Miami (FL)
2003	2	Chris Kelsay	48	DE	2012	0	0	8	47	147												3	32.5	Nebraska
2003	3	Angelo Crowell	94	LB	2007	0	0	3	19	65												5	7.0	Virginia
2003	4	Terrence McGee	111	DB	2012	0	1	6	48	122												17	3.0	NW State (LA)
2003	4	Sam Aiken	127	WR	2010	0	0	0	7	95									48	684	2			North Carolina
2003	5	Ben Sobieski	151	T	2003	0	0	0	0	1														Iowa
2003	6	Lauvale Sape	187	DT	2005	0	0	0	1	10														Utah
2003	7	Mario Haggan	228	LB	2012	0	0	2	21	132												1	9.0	Mississippi St.
Year	Rnd	Player	Pick	Pos	To	AP1	PB	St	CarAV	G	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Att	Yds	TD	Rec	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	College/Univ
2002	1	Mike Williams	4	T	2009	0	0	3	25	59														Texas
2002	2	Josh Reed	36	WR	2009	0	0	3	28	115						14	57	0	311	3575	10			LSU
2002	2	Ryan Denney	61	DE	2010	0	0	2	24	113									2	44	2		23.5	BYU
2002	3	Coy Wire	97	DB	2010	0	0	1	16	127													5.0	Stanford
2002	5	Justin Bannan	139	DT	2013	0	0	3	36	163												1	6.5	Colorado
2002	6	Kevin Thomas	176	DB	2004	0	0	0	5	38									1	24	0	1	1.5	UNLV
2002	7	Mike Pucillo	215	G	2007	0	0	1	9	48														Auburn
2002	7	Rodney Wright	249	WR		0	0	0																Fresno St.
2002	7	Jarrett Ferguson	251	RB		0	0	0																Virginia Tech
2002	7	Dominique Stevenson	260	LB	2004	0	0	0	2	21														Tennessee
Year	Rnd	Player	Pick	Pos	To	AP1	PB	St	CarAV	G	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Att	Yds	TD	Rec	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	College/Univ
2001	1	Nate Clements	21	DB	2012	0	1	10	64	180												36	4.5	Ohio St.
2001	2	Aaron Schobel	46	DE	2009	0	2	8	61	133												3	78.0	TCU
2001	2	Travis Henry	58	RB	2007	0	1	4	41	90	0	1	0	0	1	1488	6086	38	141	951	2			Tennessee
2001	3	Ron Edwards	76	DT	2012	0	0	6	39	139													16.5	Texas A&M
2001	3	Jonas Jennings	95	T	2008	0	0	5	29	75														Georgia
2001	4	Brandon Spoon	110	LB	2001	0	0	1	5	14												2		North Carolina
2001	5	Marques Sullivan	144	G	2003	0	0	1	11	32														Illinois
2001	6	Tony Driver	178	DB	2002	0	0	0	0	11														Notre Dame
2001	6	Dan O'Leary	195	TE	2002	0	0	0	1	17														Notre Dame
2001	6	Jimmy Williams	196	DB	2006	0	0	0	9	80												3	1.0	Vanderbilt
2001	7	Reggie Germany	214	WR	2001	0	0	0	2	16									12	203	0			Ohio St.
2001	7	Tyrone Robertson	238	DT	2001	0	0	0	1	12													2.0	Georgia

Not sure what conclusion to draw -- but under Williams, the Bills traded up and back quite a bit.  Also got a lot of comp picks during his three years.

 

[TuscanyTile2]

24 minutes ago, Lith said:

Gregg Williams 3 drafts with Buffalo:

Year	Rnd	Player	Pick	Pos	To	AP1	PB	St	CarAV	G	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Att	Yds	TD	Rec	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	College/Univ
2003	1	Willis McGahee	23	RB	2013	0	2	7	55	142						2095	8474	65	210	1339	5			Miami (FL)
2003	2	Chris Kelsay	48	DE	2012	0	0	8	47	147												3	32.5	Nebraska
2003	3	Angelo Crowell	94	LB	2007	0	0	3	19	65												5	7.0	Virginia
2003	4	Terrence McGee	111	DB	2012	0	1	6	48	122												17	3.0	NW State (LA)
2003	4	Sam Aiken	127	WR	2010	0	0	0	7	95									48	684	2			North Carolina
2003	5	Ben Sobieski	151	T	2003	0	0	0	0	1														Iowa
2003	6	Lauvale Sape	187	DT	2005	0	0	0	1	10														Utah
2003	7	Mario Haggan	228	LB	2012	0	0	2	21	132												1	9.0	Mississippi St.
Year	Rnd	Player	Pick	Pos	To	AP1	PB	St	CarAV	G	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Att	Yds	TD	Rec	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	College/Univ
2002	1	Mike Williams	4	T	2009	0	0	3	25	59														Texas
2002	2	Josh Reed	36	WR	2009	0	0	3	28	115						14	57	0	311	3575	10			LSU
2002	2	Ryan Denney	61	DE	2010	0	0	2	24	113									2	44	2		23.5	BYU
2002	3	Coy Wire	97	DB	2010	0	0	1	16	127													5.0	Stanford
2002	5	Justin Bannan	139	DT	2013	0	0	3	36	163												1	6.5	Colorado
2002	6	Kevin Thomas	176	DB	2004	0	0	0	5	38									1	24	0	1	1.5	UNLV
2002	7	Mike Pucillo	215	G	2007	0	0	1	9	48														Auburn
2002	7	Rodney Wright	249	WR		0	0	0																Fresno St.
2002	7	Jarrett Ferguson	251	RB		0	0	0																Virginia Tech
2002	7	Dominique Stevenson	260	LB	2004	0	0	0	2	21														Tennessee
Year	Rnd	Player	Pick	Pos	To	AP1	PB	St	CarAV	G	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Att	Yds	TD	Rec	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	College/Univ
2001	1	Nate Clements	21	DB	2012	0	1	10	64	180												36	4.5	Ohio St.
2001	2	Aaron Schobel	46	DE	2009	0	2	8	61	133												3	78.0	TCU
2001	2	Travis Henry	58	RB	2007	0	1	4	41	90	0	1	0	0	1	1488	6086	38	141	951	2			Tennessee
2001	3	Ron Edwards	76	DT	2012	0	0	6	39	139													16.5	Texas A&M
2001	3	Jonas Jennings	95	T	2008	0	0	5	29	75														Georgia
2001	4	Brandon Spoon	110	LB	2001	0	0	1	5	14												2		North Carolina
2001	5	Marques Sullivan	144	G	2003	0	0	1	11	32														Illinois
2001	6	Tony Driver	178	DB	2002	0	0	0	0	11														Notre Dame
2001	6	Dan O'Leary	195	TE	2002	0	0	0	1	17														Notre Dame
2001	6	Jimmy Williams	196	DB	2006	0	0	0	9	80												3	1.0	Vanderbilt
2001	7	Reggie Germany	214	WR	2001	0	0	0	2	16									12	203	0			Ohio St.
2001	7	Tyrone Robertson	238	DT	2001	0	0	0	1	12													2.0	Georgia

Not sure what conclusion to draw -- but under Williams, the Bills traded up and back quite a bit.  Also got a lot of comp picks during his three years.

 

1/3 of the time he drafted a RB with his 1st pick!

2/3 of the time he drafted an offensive player with the 1st pick! 

And they were a RB and OL so he CLEARLY prefers the keep-away style of offense (a la the 1990 Giants Superbowl against the Bills).

Based on this, I think we're drafting a RB 1st overall!

[jetsfaneh]

All this Ed Oliver leaked talk feels fishy. Lying season. Telling teams that if you want Ed you need to trade up.

You want Ed? Call us.

You want Q? Ring-a-ding time.

You want Haskins or Lock? Pick up the phone.

You want Bosa? Gimme gimme gimme.

Oliver is just another guy getting love that some teams may be drooling over. We like him I am sure. But the for sale sign is firmly planted in the ground. Somebody will give us a package of picks. It might not be the haul we are hoping for though.

[nycdan]

It's almost impossible to completely stop leaks.  One good way to fight them is to leak lots of different scenarios so the real leaks are lost in the noise.  So when you see a team linked to several different guys, that's very possibly what's going on.  They are giving some journalists fake names to create lots of smoke.  And those journalists are only too happy to tweet out what their 'sources' are telling them, hoping that they'll have the right name, or that it will be long forgotten if they don't.  At this point, I pretty much assume it's one of the big-3 defenders or a trade down and we'll just have to wait and see.  

[Bruce Harper]

12 hours ago, jetsons said:

And Aaron Donald weighs 280... Oliver can play ANY D-Line position & Excel. 

Not the same body type.  Donald is the exception, not the rule.

[Jet Nut]

22 hours ago, maury77 said:

Between Gase & Williams, they drafted 6 interior DL over 6 drafts. The earliest selection was Ron Edwards, a 3rd rounder in 2001. 

They picked 4 edge rushers over 6 drafts, BUT all 4 were selected in the 1st and 2nd rounds. 

As far as OL, I'm only going to look at Gase because Williams is the DC now. Gase drafted 2 OL in 3 drafts, with Tunsil being the highest selection in round 1. 

Now, does all of this mean that Oliver or QW won't be the pick at 3? Of course not. However, a tiger never changes its stripes and, historically, both Gase and Williams seem to value edge rushers over interior DLs in the draft. 

 

Pretty cool

Greg Williams wasn't the GM in Buffalo

Neither are the GM of the Jets.  

They don't draft players

[maury77]

1 hour ago, Jet Nut said:

Pretty cool

Greg Williams wasn't the GM in Buffalo

Neither are the GM of the Jets.  

They don't draft players

Right, because the GM doesn't listen to feedback from the coaches on what type of players they want. 

[choon328]

1 hour ago, maury77 said:

Right, because the GM doesn't listen to feedback from the coaches on what type of players they want. 

I think Gase's drafting history matters, especially since he had total player control in Miami. I don't believe Williams past drafting history from 15 years ago matters at all.

[Bomberjet]

There's not enough data from the 2 scenarios (Dolphins and Bills) to draw any conclusions - if a poll was presented to make accurate determinations , it would have to amass at least 25 examples of past history, imo.  Typically polls run to about 100 but in the NFL world that would be unrealistic noting how rare it would be for coaches in head positions for that length of time.

Of course, I'd be only focusing on data accumulated  the first 2 rounds. After that, it's really just whatever falls to you - the luck of the draw.

[Jet Nut]

5 hours ago, maury77 said:

Right, because the GM doesn't listen to feedback from the coaches on what type of players they want. 

No because the GM makes the picks.  Coaches coach

Feedback doesn't equal making picks.

Passing out an opinion once has almost as much to do with it as that it was back in 2001, 2 or 3

 

[Beerfish]

Coaches do not draft, (unless it is a Gruden or belichik kind of thing) Head coaches have some influence but I mostly reject these scenarios that list drafts and credit or discredit the coach or coordinator on the results.

[Pcola]

1 hour ago, Jet Nut said:

No because the GM makes the picks.  Coaches coach

Feedback doesn't equal making picks.

Passing out an opinion once has almost as much to do with it as that it was back in 2001, 2 or 3

 

In a traditional organizational structure, yes.  This would be correct.  When the GM is the boss, he is the primary decision maker.

When the GM and HC both report to the same person and act independ, the GM is more of a consensus builder between the scouting department and the the coaching staff.

 

If Macc went against what the CS really wanted, the coach could go over his head to their boss, he could refuse to play the young player, etc.  We saw a coach and a GM trying to make the other a scape goat back in 2014.  Possibly 2012 as well.

[Jet Nut]

31 minutes ago, Pcola said:

In a traditional organizational structure, yes.  This would be correct.  When the GM is the boss, he is the primary decision maker.

When the GM and HC both report to the same person and act independ, the GM is more of a consensus builder between the scouting department and the the coaching staff.

 

If Macc went against what the CS really wanted, the coach could go over his head to their boss, he could refuse to play the young player, etc.  We saw a coach and a GM trying to make the other a scape goat back in 2014.  Possibly 2012 as well.

None of this structure business has a thing to do with GMs make the picks.  Or makes any sense.  Because Gase talks to Chris Johnson he makes the picks how?  Because CJ makes the picks now?  The complaint is that the HC doesnt talk to the GM so how does that get turned into the HC can influence the pick more than elsewhere where the HC talks to the GM.  What?  Also never understood the crazy idea that because the HC talks to the owner he doesnt talk with the GM sonehow, which we know isnt trueBecause Gase won't play him? And no other HC could do this because?  He wants to get fired?  Wants to lose games by  not playing his best players? 

How does any of this turn into the HC will start a rebellion and not play players the GM selects.  Or why any HC couldnt do the same.  Risk his job by not playing his best players and help win games is good for him.

And what does any of this have to do with the topic I was discussing, with thinking who the Bills drafted when Williams was the HC 01-03 has to do with the Jets?