maury77 Posted April 20, 2019 Share Posted April 20, 2019 In order to make myself feel better about all the rumors of the Jets looking at Quinnen Williams or Ed Oliver at 3, I decided to look at the draft histories of Adam Gase and Gregg Williams when they were head coaches (and presumably were able to influence what players their respective teams chose) Gregg Williams was Buffalo's head coach from 2001 to 2003. Here are Buffalo's drafts during those periods: https://www.footballdb.com/teams/nfl/buffalo-bills/draft/2001 https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2002_draft.htm https://www.footballdb.com/teams/nfl/buffalo-bills/draft/2003 Adam Gase was Miami's coach from 2016-2018 http://www.espn.com/blog/miami-dolphins/post/_/id/20929/2016-miami-dolphins-draft-picks-analysis-for-every-selection http://www.espn.com/blog/miami-dolphins/post/_/id/25154/miami-dolphins-2017-draft-picks-analysis-for-every-selection https://www.thephinsider.com/2018/4/28/17296418/2018-miami-dolphins-draft-results-complete-class 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Larz Posted April 20, 2019 Popular Post Share Posted April 20, 2019 Executive bullet points please 10 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post maury77 Posted April 20, 2019 Author Popular Post Share Posted April 20, 2019 Between Gase & Williams, they drafted 6 interior DL over 6 drafts. The earliest selection was Ron Edwards, a 3rd rounder in 2001. They picked 4 edge rushers over 6 drafts, BUT all 4 were selected in the 1st and 2nd rounds. As far as OL, I'm only going to look at Gase because Williams is the DC now. Gase drafted 2 OL in 3 drafts, with Tunsil being the highest selection in round 1. Now, does all of this mean that Oliver or QW won't be the pick at 3? Of course not. However, a tiger never changes its stripes and, historically, both Gase and Williams seem to value edge rushers over interior DLs in the draft. 5 3 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larz Posted April 20, 2019 Share Posted April 20, 2019 Thanks ? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pcola Posted April 20, 2019 Share Posted April 20, 2019 But possibly having Dareus and Suh influenced a few of those drafts. Not saying that we don’t have competent starters there but if they feel that Williams or Oliver will have an Aaron Donald like impact, MacC is going to take BAP. Taking Josh Allen is a huge risk. He is not as talented as the three other defenders. If he ends up like Fowler and Williams and Oliver dominate, it is going to be devastating. Still think Atlanta May want to move up for Oliver. We’ll see. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ljr Posted April 20, 2019 Share Posted April 20, 2019 being lazy, ... any way to have you list the 1's & 2's from each? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Harper Posted April 20, 2019 Share Posted April 20, 2019 Is Cordea Tankersley still on the Phins? If not he should be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Harper Posted April 20, 2019 Share Posted April 20, 2019 21 minutes ago, Pcola said: But possibly having Dareus and Suh influenced a few of those drafts. Not saying that we don’t have competent starters there but if they feel that Williams or Oliver will have an Aaron Donald like impact, MacC is going to take BAP. Taking Josh Allen is a huge risk. He is not as talented as the three other defenders. If he ends up like Fowler and Williams and Oliver dominate, it is going to be devastating. Still think Atlanta May want to move up for Oliver. We’ll see. I like Williams but don't agree about Allen. Untalented DE got 17 sacks in the SEC last year. Must have used some pretty good smoke and mirrors. I think Bosa is a much bigger risk than Allen with his history of serious injuries. Also, Oliver is a tackle who weighs 285 lbs. How confident are you that will work in the pros? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebuzzardman Posted April 20, 2019 Share Posted April 20, 2019 35 minutes ago, Larz said: Executive bullet points please For the current chief executive? * JETS WILL DRAFT FOOTBALL PLAYERS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J_Smith Posted April 20, 2019 Share Posted April 20, 2019 Or we can ignore history and study rumors ? 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Losmeister Posted April 20, 2019 Share Posted April 20, 2019 42 minutes ago, maury77 said: historically, both Gase and Williams seem to value edge rushers over interior DLs in the draft. nice.. nex time i see a deer , ima pull over and singto it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maury77 Posted April 20, 2019 Author Share Posted April 20, 2019 But possibly having Dareus and Suh influenced a few of those drafts. Not saying that we don’t have competent starters there but if they feel that Williams or Oliver will have an Aaron Donald like impact, MacC is going to take BAP. Taking Josh Allen is a huge risk. He is not as talented as the three other defenders. If he ends up like Fowler and Williams and Oliver dominate, it is going to be devastating. Still think Atlanta May want to move up for Oliver. We’ll see.Dareus went to the Bills years after Williams was fired, but you have a point on Suh.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lupz27 Posted April 20, 2019 Share Posted April 20, 2019 Outside of Tunsil falling in Tanny’s lap Gase’s drafts don’t look good early pick wise. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTM Posted April 20, 2019 Share Posted April 20, 2019 1 hour ago, Larz said: Executive bullet points please Lol, I was about to say this is like a homework assignment 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sammybighead Posted April 21, 2019 Share Posted April 21, 2019 If we take Ed Oliver I'm losing it 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jetsons Posted April 21, 2019 Share Posted April 21, 2019 8 hours ago, Bruce Harper said: I like Williams but don't agree about Allen. Untalented DE got 17 sacks in the SEC last year. Must have used some pretty good smoke and mirrors. I think Bosa is a much bigger risk than Allen with his history of serious injuries. Also, Oliver is a tackle who weighs 285 lbs. How confident are you that will work in the pros? And Aaron Donald weighs 280... Oliver can play ANY D-Line position & Excel. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peace Frog Posted April 21, 2019 Share Posted April 21, 2019 Too much plot. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
choon328 Posted April 21, 2019 Share Posted April 21, 2019 In 3 years Gase's Dolphins drafted: 11 Offensive Players Tackle (1st) RB (3rd, 5th) WR (3rd, 6th, 7th) QB (7th) G (5th) TE (2nd, 4th, 7th) 11 Defensive Players CB (2nd, 3rd, 7th) S (1st, 6th) DE/Edge (1st) MLB (2nd, 7th) OLB (3rd) DT (5th, 6th) Specials K (7th) 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
choon328 Posted April 21, 2019 Share Posted April 21, 2019 1 hour ago, jetsons said: And Aaron Donald weighs 280... Oliver can play ANY D-Line position & Excel. Oliver weighed 281 lbs at the combine and that was after bulking up. He's probably going to play at 270-275 lbs and will have a hard time maintaining weight. He's a gap shooting 3 technique at that size that has to maintain that twitchiness or he will get swallowed up by NFL lineman. He can not play in a 3-4 unless he gets moved to Edge. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TuscanyTile2 Posted April 21, 2019 Share Posted April 21, 2019 With all due respect, the OP's premise seems a little forced. You might be misinterpreting the patterns you're seeing. Maybe they took BPA? Maybe they chose 1 player over another because their ratings on both were close and they already had a good player at 1 of the positions? Or maybe the GM had the final say and wanted 1 guy over the guy Gase/Williams wanted? Also, the Gregg Williams Buffalo HC era picks were from 2001-03, which is a long time ago. You don't think any of his thinking has changed since then? In short, my executive bullet point takeaway is: Rumors > History 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maury77 Posted April 21, 2019 Author Share Posted April 21, 2019 6 hours ago, choon328 said: In 3 years Gase's Dolphins drafted: 11 Offensive Players Tackle (1st) RB (3rd, 5th) WR (3rd, 6th, 7th) QB (7th) G (5th) TE (2nd, 4th, 7th) 11 Defensive Players CB (2nd, 3rd, 7th) S (1st, 6th) DE/Edge (1st) MLB (2nd, 7th) OLB (3rd) DT (5th, 6th) Specials K (7th) I'll break Williams down like this later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maury77 Posted April 21, 2019 Author Share Posted April 21, 2019 1 hour ago, TuscanyTile2 said: With all due respect, the OP's premise seems a little forced. You might be misinterpreting the patterns you're seeing. Maybe they took BPA? Maybe they chose 1 player over another because their ratings on both were close and they already had a good player at 1 of the positions? Or maybe the GM had the final say and wanted 1 guy over the guy Gase/Williams wanted? Also, the Gregg Williams Buffalo HC era picks were from 2001-03, which is a long time ago. You don't think any of his thinking has changed since then? In short, my executive bullet point takeaway is: Rumors > History Well, that is the point of my original post. If the Jets have QW, Oliver and Allen all rated closely, what position have Gase and Williams favored in the past? If they value edge over interior DL, that might be the tiebreaker. Regarding 2001 to 2003 being a long time ago for Williams, let's take a look over the last couple of years. He coached Cleveland in 2017 & 18. He coached the Rams D for the 3 prior years. Who was playing edge on those defenses? Robert Quinn (1st rounder), Emmanuel Obhah (2nd rounder), Myles Garrett (1st overall pick). Granted, Williams did not make those picks and he did have 2 1st rounders at DL with the Rams, but the point is his defenses have tended to have high draft picks at the edge and I can't see him happily going into the season with Copeland and Jenkins as his starting edges. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lith Posted April 21, 2019 Share Posted April 21, 2019 Gregg Williams 3 drafts with Buffalo: Year Rnd Player Pick Pos To AP1 PB St CarAV G Cmp Att Yds TD Int Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD Int Sk College/Univ 2003 1 Willis McGahee 23 RB 2013 0 2 7 55 142 2095 8474 65 210 1339 5 Miami (FL) 2003 2 Chris Kelsay 48 DE 2012 0 0 8 47 147 3 32.5 Nebraska 2003 3 Angelo Crowell 94 LB 2007 0 0 3 19 65 5 7.0 Virginia 2003 4 Terrence McGee 111 DB 2012 0 1 6 48 122 17 3.0 NW State (LA) 2003 4 Sam Aiken 127 WR 2010 0 0 0 7 95 48 684 2 North Carolina 2003 5 Ben Sobieski 151 T 2003 0 0 0 0 1 Iowa 2003 6 Lauvale Sape 187 DT 2005 0 0 0 1 10 Utah 2003 7 Mario Haggan 228 LB 2012 0 0 2 21 132 1 9.0 Mississippi St. Year Rnd Player Pick Pos To AP1 PB St CarAV G Cmp Att Yds TD Int Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD Int Sk College/Univ 2002 1 Mike Williams 4 T 2009 0 0 3 25 59 Texas 2002 2 Josh Reed 36 WR 2009 0 0 3 28 115 14 57 0 311 3575 10 LSU 2002 2 Ryan Denney 61 DE 2010 0 0 2 24 113 2 44 2 23.5 BYU 2002 3 Coy Wire 97 DB 2010 0 0 1 16 127 5.0 Stanford 2002 5 Justin Bannan 139 DT 2013 0 0 3 36 163 1 6.5 Colorado 2002 6 Kevin Thomas 176 DB 2004 0 0 0 5 38 1 24 0 1 1.5 UNLV 2002 7 Mike Pucillo 215 G 2007 0 0 1 9 48 Auburn 2002 7 Rodney Wright 249 WR 0 0 0 Fresno St. 2002 7 Jarrett Ferguson 251 RB 0 0 0 Virginia Tech 2002 7 Dominique Stevenson 260 LB 2004 0 0 0 2 21 Tennessee Year Rnd Player Pick Pos To AP1 PB St CarAV G Cmp Att Yds TD Int Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD Int Sk College/Univ 2001 1 Nate Clements 21 DB 2012 0 1 10 64 180 36 4.5 Ohio St. 2001 2 Aaron Schobel 46 DE 2009 0 2 8 61 133 3 78.0 TCU 2001 2 Travis Henry 58 RB 2007 0 1 4 41 90 0 1 0 0 1 1488 6086 38 141 951 2 Tennessee 2001 3 Ron Edwards 76 DT 2012 0 0 6 39 139 16.5 Texas A&M 2001 3 Jonas Jennings 95 T 2008 0 0 5 29 75 Georgia 2001 4 Brandon Spoon 110 LB 2001 0 0 1 5 14 2 North Carolina 2001 5 Marques Sullivan 144 G 2003 0 0 1 11 32 Illinois 2001 6 Tony Driver 178 DB 2002 0 0 0 0 11 Notre Dame 2001 6 Dan O'Leary 195 TE 2002 0 0 0 1 17 Notre Dame 2001 6 Jimmy Williams 196 DB 2006 0 0 0 9 80 3 1.0 Vanderbilt 2001 7 Reggie Germany 214 WR 2001 0 0 0 2 16 12 203 0 Ohio St. 2001 7 Tyrone Robertson 238 DT 2001 0 0 0 1 12 2.0 Georgia Not sure what conclusion to draw -- but under Williams, the Bills traded up and back quite a bit. Also got a lot of comp picks during his three years. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TuscanyTile2 Posted April 21, 2019 Share Posted April 21, 2019 24 minutes ago, Lith said: Gregg Williams 3 drafts with Buffalo: Year Rnd Player Pick Pos To AP1 PB St CarAV G Cmp Att Yds TD Int Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD Int Sk College/Univ 2003 1 Willis McGahee 23 RB 2013 0 2 7 55 142 2095 8474 65 210 1339 5 Miami (FL) 2003 2 Chris Kelsay 48 DE 2012 0 0 8 47 147 3 32.5 Nebraska 2003 3 Angelo Crowell 94 LB 2007 0 0 3 19 65 5 7.0 Virginia 2003 4 Terrence McGee 111 DB 2012 0 1 6 48 122 17 3.0 NW State (LA) 2003 4 Sam Aiken 127 WR 2010 0 0 0 7 95 48 684 2 North Carolina 2003 5 Ben Sobieski 151 T 2003 0 0 0 0 1 Iowa 2003 6 Lauvale Sape 187 DT 2005 0 0 0 1 10 Utah 2003 7 Mario Haggan 228 LB 2012 0 0 2 21 132 1 9.0 Mississippi St. Year Rnd Player Pick Pos To AP1 PB St CarAV G Cmp Att Yds TD Int Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD Int Sk College/Univ 2002 1 Mike Williams 4 T 2009 0 0 3 25 59 Texas 2002 2 Josh Reed 36 WR 2009 0 0 3 28 115 14 57 0 311 3575 10 LSU 2002 2 Ryan Denney 61 DE 2010 0 0 2 24 113 2 44 2 23.5 BYU 2002 3 Coy Wire 97 DB 2010 0 0 1 16 127 5.0 Stanford 2002 5 Justin Bannan 139 DT 2013 0 0 3 36 163 1 6.5 Colorado 2002 6 Kevin Thomas 176 DB 2004 0 0 0 5 38 1 24 0 1 1.5 UNLV 2002 7 Mike Pucillo 215 G 2007 0 0 1 9 48 Auburn 2002 7 Rodney Wright 249 WR 0 0 0 Fresno St. 2002 7 Jarrett Ferguson 251 RB 0 0 0 Virginia Tech 2002 7 Dominique Stevenson 260 LB 2004 0 0 0 2 21 Tennessee Year Rnd Player Pick Pos To AP1 PB St CarAV G Cmp Att Yds TD Int Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD Int Sk College/Univ 2001 1 Nate Clements 21 DB 2012 0 1 10 64 180 36 4.5 Ohio St. 2001 2 Aaron Schobel 46 DE 2009 0 2 8 61 133 3 78.0 TCU 2001 2 Travis Henry 58 RB 2007 0 1 4 41 90 0 1 0 0 1 1488 6086 38 141 951 2 Tennessee 2001 3 Ron Edwards 76 DT 2012 0 0 6 39 139 16.5 Texas A&M 2001 3 Jonas Jennings 95 T 2008 0 0 5 29 75 Georgia 2001 4 Brandon Spoon 110 LB 2001 0 0 1 5 14 2 North Carolina 2001 5 Marques Sullivan 144 G 2003 0 0 1 11 32 Illinois 2001 6 Tony Driver 178 DB 2002 0 0 0 0 11 Notre Dame 2001 6 Dan O'Leary 195 TE 2002 0 0 0 1 17 Notre Dame 2001 6 Jimmy Williams 196 DB 2006 0 0 0 9 80 3 1.0 Vanderbilt 2001 7 Reggie Germany 214 WR 2001 0 0 0 2 16 12 203 0 Ohio St. 2001 7 Tyrone Robertson 238 DT 2001 0 0 0 1 12 2.0 Georgia Not sure what conclusion to draw -- but under Williams, the Bills traded up and back quite a bit. Also got a lot of comp picks during his three years. 1/3 of the time he drafted a RB with his 1st pick! 2/3 of the time he drafted an offensive player with the 1st pick! And they were a RB and OL so he CLEARLY prefers the keep-away style of offense (a la the 1990 Giants Superbowl against the Bills). Based on this, I think we're drafting a RB 1st overall! 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jetsfaneh Posted April 21, 2019 Share Posted April 21, 2019 All this Ed Oliver leaked talk feels fishy. Lying season. Telling teams that if you want Ed you need to trade up. You want Ed? Call us. You want Q? Ring-a-ding time. You want Haskins or Lock? Pick up the phone. You want Bosa? Gimme gimme gimme. Oliver is just another guy getting love that some teams may be drooling over. We like him I am sure. But the for sale sign is firmly planted in the ground. Somebody will give us a package of picks. It might not be the haul we are hoping for though. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycdan Posted April 21, 2019 Share Posted April 21, 2019 It's almost impossible to completely stop leaks. One good way to fight them is to leak lots of different scenarios so the real leaks are lost in the noise. So when you see a team linked to several different guys, that's very possibly what's going on. They are giving some journalists fake names to create lots of smoke. And those journalists are only too happy to tweet out what their 'sources' are telling them, hoping that they'll have the right name, or that it will be long forgotten if they don't. At this point, I pretty much assume it's one of the big-3 defenders or a trade down and we'll just have to wait and see. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Harper Posted April 21, 2019 Share Posted April 21, 2019 12 hours ago, jetsons said: And Aaron Donald weighs 280... Oliver can play ANY D-Line position & Excel. Not the same body type. Donald is the exception, not the rule. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Nut Posted April 21, 2019 Share Posted April 21, 2019 22 hours ago, maury77 said: Between Gase & Williams, they drafted 6 interior DL over 6 drafts. The earliest selection was Ron Edwards, a 3rd rounder in 2001. They picked 4 edge rushers over 6 drafts, BUT all 4 were selected in the 1st and 2nd rounds. As far as OL, I'm only going to look at Gase because Williams is the DC now. Gase drafted 2 OL in 3 drafts, with Tunsil being the highest selection in round 1. Now, does all of this mean that Oliver or QW won't be the pick at 3? Of course not. However, a tiger never changes its stripes and, historically, both Gase and Williams seem to value edge rushers over interior DLs in the draft. Pretty cool Greg Williams wasn't the GM in Buffalo Neither are the GM of the Jets. They don't draft players Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maury77 Posted April 21, 2019 Author Share Posted April 21, 2019 1 hour ago, Jet Nut said: Pretty cool Greg Williams wasn't the GM in Buffalo Neither are the GM of the Jets. They don't draft players Right, because the GM doesn't listen to feedback from the coaches on what type of players they want. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
choon328 Posted April 21, 2019 Share Posted April 21, 2019 1 hour ago, maury77 said: Right, because the GM doesn't listen to feedback from the coaches on what type of players they want. I think Gase's drafting history matters, especially since he had total player control in Miami. I don't believe Williams past drafting history from 15 years ago matters at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bomberjet Posted April 21, 2019 Share Posted April 21, 2019 There's not enough data from the 2 scenarios (Dolphins and Bills) to draw any conclusions - if a poll was presented to make accurate determinations , it would have to amass at least 25 examples of past history, imo. Typically polls run to about 100 but in the NFL world that would be unrealistic noting how rare it would be for coaches in head positions for that length of time. Of course, I'd be only focusing on data accumulated the first 2 rounds. After that, it's really just whatever falls to you - the luck of the draw. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Nut Posted April 22, 2019 Share Posted April 22, 2019 5 hours ago, maury77 said: Right, because the GM doesn't listen to feedback from the coaches on what type of players they want. No because the GM makes the picks. Coaches coach Feedback doesn't equal making picks. Passing out an opinion once has almost as much to do with it as that it was back in 2001, 2 or 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beerfish Posted April 22, 2019 Share Posted April 22, 2019 Coaches do not draft, (unless it is a Gruden or belichik kind of thing) Head coaches have some influence but I mostly reject these scenarios that list drafts and credit or discredit the coach or coordinator on the results. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pcola Posted April 22, 2019 Share Posted April 22, 2019 1 hour ago, Jet Nut said: No because the GM makes the picks. Coaches coach Feedback doesn't equal making picks. Passing out an opinion once has almost as much to do with it as that it was back in 2001, 2 or 3 In a traditional organizational structure, yes. This would be correct. When the GM is the boss, he is the primary decision maker. When the GM and HC both report to the same person and act independ, the GM is more of a consensus builder between the scouting department and the the coaching staff. If Macc went against what the CS really wanted, the coach could go over his head to their boss, he could refuse to play the young player, etc. We saw a coach and a GM trying to make the other a scape goat back in 2014. Possibly 2012 as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Nut Posted April 22, 2019 Share Posted April 22, 2019 31 minutes ago, Pcola said: In a traditional organizational structure, yes. This would be correct. When the GM is the boss, he is the primary decision maker. When the GM and HC both report to the same person and act independ, the GM is more of a consensus builder between the scouting department and the the coaching staff. If Macc went against what the CS really wanted, the coach could go over his head to their boss, he could refuse to play the young player, etc. We saw a coach and a GM trying to make the other a scape goat back in 2014. Possibly 2012 as well. None of this structure business has a thing to do with GMs make the picks. Or makes any sense. Because Gase talks to Chris Johnson he makes the picks how? Because CJ makes the picks now? The complaint is that the HC doesnt talk to the GM so how does that get turned into the HC can influence the pick more than elsewhere where the HC talks to the GM. What? Also never understood the crazy idea that because the HC talks to the owner he doesnt talk with the GM sonehow, which we know isnt trueBecause Gase won't play him? And no other HC could do this because? He wants to get fired? Wants to lose games by not playing his best players? How does any of this turn into the HC will start a rebellion and not play players the GM selects. Or why any HC couldnt do the same. Risk his job by not playing his best players and help win games is good for him. And what does any of this have to do with the topic I was discussing, with thinking who the Bills drafted when Williams was the HC 01-03 has to do with the Jets? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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