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Why don’t we want one of the big 3?


Philc1

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3 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

 I’m only ok with drafting Oliver if we switch to a 4-3 and he plays outside Otherwise he’s too small to play the interior in a full time 3-4 

4-3 vs 3-4 doesn't matter anymore when the nickel is the base and the plays you are expecting a 1.3 pick to make are on 3rd and long   

all these guys rotate no one plays full time (except Leo, last year, and look how that turned out) 

 

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7 minutes ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

Watt was taken 11th, Donald 13th. Revisionist history has Watt and Donald being consensus all time greats out of college. Quinnen is just as good a prospect as Watt/Donald were. Whether he ends up being as good is a different question. 

From Watt's draft profile:

WEAKNESSES

 Won't consistently get the edge on tackles with his get off or quickness. Plays high at times, can be blown off the ball by the double team, but does fight hard to hold ground. Lacks some lateral mobility both rushing the passer and playing in space. Will occasionally give up outside contain.

From Donald's draft profile on NFL.com: 

WEAKNESSES

 Marginal height and frame is nearly maxed out. Hands are more active than strong -- could play with more pop and power. Overpowered in the run game and ground up by double teams. Gets snared and controlled by bigger, longer blockers. Not a two-gap player. Has some tweener traits -- lacks ideal length and bend to play outside.

DRAFT PROJECTION

 Rounds 4-5

Thank you for that wholly uninteresting anecdotal trash( but I was referring to their athletic testing. 

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14 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

The three best players in this draft are Bosa, Quinnen Williams and Josh Allen.  Jets are going to be in a position to draft one of them

 

why is this a bad thing?

Aside from feeling strongly that using #3 pick to garner more capital in this and future drafts would be better than taking one player, Bosa has already had two season ending injuries in his young career. Allen, while most likely a good player is not enough to deter from trading back for OL helper even getting a 2nd and taking someone like Sweat with the 1st. 

Q is a DT and I just don't see his impact outweighing the potential impact of getting a 2nd or an additional 1st next season. This is an opportunity to load up. Taking one of the three just doesn't compare IMO. 

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23 minutes ago, JetFaninMI said:

Well I wouldn't be upset if they traded the pick simply because that 2nd rounder is very important this year at least for me. More picks early mean a better shot of filling all those holes with quality prospects.

I don;t know why people refer to 'all these holes'. What holes? No, I get it. The Jets need to upgrade at a number of positions to be contenders. But to think that they can do that by adding a second round pick while moving down in the draft is not realistic. Yes, they need an OT b/c Beachem probably wont be here next year BUT, there is no OT in this whole draft that could step in and the win the job over Beachem. There just isn't. 

Is there a WR that can step in and take over Enunwa's or Robbies job? Nope. I don't see anyone like that. A slot WR that can come in and take Crowder's job? Nope. A RB that can take Bells job? Or even McGuires? 

Sure, one of the top 2 C prospects could probably take Harrison's job. But does that mean we NEED to trade down to FILL THAT HOLE? 

I'm not sure there is a CB that can come in and beat out Roberts for his job. Or Poole for the Nickel spot. Or Tru for the #1 CB spot. Sure, the Jets need to continue adding young talent and depth a number of positions (like most teams). But this notion that they have holes all over the roster is simply untrue. They addressed a lot of holes in FA by bringing back their own guys and bringing in new players.

I don't know how someone can assume that these completely unproven rookie prospects are better than what the Jets were able to get in FA or what they already have on the team. 

So, to me, the one position where a player can come in and take over the starting job is Pass Rusher. Allen or Bosa can come right in and start as an edge rusher over Copeland or Lee (who if not traded may be pushed out as a situational player or OLB in a 3-4 across from Jenkins). 

So, to me, you stick at #3 and take Bosa or Allen. I have confidence in both guys to be legit Pro Bowl caliber players. Bosa being the better pure pass rusher, Allen being the better versatile Pass Rusher. Bosa having the injury history that scares me a bit. 

I'm hoping Bosa IS a 49er and Allen, the local NJ kid is drafted by the Jets. He has a great work ethic, he has zero injury red flags, zero off field red flags, he played all 4 years in college, he put up big numbers, his measurables are great, his combine numbers are great, he fits as a prototypical 3-4 OLB, there is ZERO reason not to draft him at 3.          

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2 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

Bit I get what you are saying about scheme being irrelevant in obvious passing situations when we are in the nickel and dime but we cannot use the third pick of the draft on what would essentially be a part time player like Oliver

he'll play every down and if Williams does in fact run a 3-4 it will not be like Herm/Rex read and react it's going to be a gap shooting 4-3 hybrid 

put it another way gregg williams has never run a read and react defense he's not starting now 

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Just now, bitonti said:

he'll play every down and if Williams does in fact run a 3-4 it will not be like Herm/Rex read and react it's going to be a gap shooting 4-3 hybrid 

put it another way gregg williams has never run a read and react defense he's not starting now 

But for an attacking 3-4 you need bigger defensive lineman to eat up blockers

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1 minute ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

You said prospect, not athlete. There are plenty of players that have off the chart athletic testing that never make it, let alone end up becoming Donald/Watt. 

Why not go with both off the charts athleticism and great football instincts, iq and love for the game?  Like Quinnen Williams?

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4 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

But for an attacking 3-4 you need bigger defensive lineman to eat up blockers

that's the read and react... your Sione Pouhas of the world 

the attacking 3-4 is basically just a 4-3-over look 

keep in mind Gregg Williams coached Aaron Donald as a rookie it's not like he doesn't know what to do with these players 

also keep in mind Adam Gase neither knows nor cares what Gregg Williams does on his side of the building 

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2 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

Why not go with both off the charts athleticism and great football instincts, iq and love for the game?  Like Quinnen Williams?

honestly don't think QW will be there but if both QW and Oliver are there probably Mac would take Williams higher. both are instant impact types, we should be happy with either

i keep getting this gut feeling what ends up happening is they fall ass backward into Nick Bosa 

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1 minute ago, bitonti said:

that's the read and react... your Sione Pouhas of the world 

the attacking 3-4 is basically just a 4-3-over look 

keep in mind Gregg Williams coached Aaron Donald as a rookie it's not like he doesn't know what to do with these players 

also keep in mind Adam Gase neither knows nor cares what Gregg Williams does on his side of the building 

No that’s for the attacking scheme Rex implemented.  It was Manginenius who tried implementing a 3-4 with undersized DL like Robertson at Nose and Ellis at DE

 

And the 3-4 with undersized DL players used by Mangini sucked

 

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1 minute ago, bitonti said:

honestly don't think QW will be there but if both QW and Oliver are there probably Mac would take Williams higher. both are instant impact types, we should be happy with either

i keep getting this gut feeling what ends up happening is they fall ass backward into Nick Bosa 

I think Murray and Bosa go 1 and 2.  Rosen does not fit KK’s playbook he’s way too immobile and the 49ers already have Bosa’s locker and jerseys ready to go

 

It’s going to come down to QW or Allen which I’m fine with I think both are going to be really good 

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4 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

No that’s for the attacking scheme Rex implemented.  It was Manginenius who tried implementing a 3-4 with undersized DL like Robertson at Nose and Ellis at DE

 

And the 3-4 with undersized DL players used by Mangini sucked

 

honest question why do you take the Jets and Gregg Williams at their word when they say they are running a 3-4? 

Williams has never run a 3-4 in his life. We've never actually seen this scheme they are planning to run, so how can we say Oliver doesn't fit it? 

whatever they run, it's going to be a gregg williams defense, which is known for aggression. 

All these coaches Mangini, Herm, even Rex are less aggressive with gap shooting than Gregg Williams. 

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In my opinion, if you really want to trade out of the Top 3 and not get one of the top two pass rushers (Bosa, Allen) then you might as well trade outside the Top 10 and really try to get a haul of draft picks.  If we value a quantity of picks over getting an elite Edge rusher then what we're really saying is that we're open to drafting any position in Round 1 (Edge, OT, Center, CB, etc.).  And, we'd be able to find one of those guys who will be a good fit somewhere in the teens (Sweat, Dillard, Bradbury, Greedy Williams, etc.).

The more I think about it the more I see very little reason to trade back from 3 to something like 6, 7, 8.  Might as well go back to the Bengals and Redskins spots.  If not, I'd rather stay put and take Allen, then hope that Macc does the smart thing with the 3rd round picks, and maybe grabs a 4th rounder for Darron Lee.

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1 minute ago, bitonti said:

honest question why do you take the Jets and Gregg Williams at their word when they say they are running a 3-4? 

Williams has never run a 3-4 in his life. We've never actually seen this scheme they are planning to run, so how can we say Oliver doesn't fit it? 

whatever they run, it's going to be a gregg williams defense, which is known for aggression. 

All these coaches Mangini, Herm, even Rex are less aggressive with gap shooting than Gregg Williams. 

I don’t see the jets going 4-3 next year all I can do is rely on what the coaches say publicly

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Quinnen will be a solid DT, preferably in a 4-3.  Needs to turn 10 pounds of baby fat to muscle. I think he ends up being a similar player to Leo when Leo was playing hard.   Before Bowles got to him.  

Bosa will be a solid 4-3 DE but will potentially be a management headache and injury risk.  If I am a GM I a drafting hard nosed players from poor backgrounds.  The Bosa’s are too manufactured.   I could be convinced to take him if he is there, but I would rather not. I am actually thinking that he will be there.

Allen’s atheticism is actually underrated.  Allen is the EDGE equivalent to Jamal in a way-hardworking but slightly underathletic/twitch.   Considering that Allen would cost half of what Barr would and is projected to be as good or better, using 3 for him and locking down the 3-4 to me seems like the much better move, if he is there.

What the draft will show is what teams really think about the Joey Bosa experience for the Chargers.  If they like it, he will get picked. 

Allen should go to the Jets if they are really planning on sticking with the 3-4.  

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2 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

In my opinion, if you really want to trade out of the Top 3 and not get one of the top two pass rushers (Bosa, Allen) then you might as well trade outside the Top 10 and really try to get a haul of draft picks.  If we value a quantity of picks over getting an elite Edge rusher then what we're really saying is that we're open to drafting any position in Round 1 (Edge, OT, Center, CB, etc.).  And, we'd be able to find one of those guys who will be a good fit somewhere in the teens (Sweat, Dillard, Bradbury, Greedy Williams, etc.).

The more I think about it the more I see very little reason to trade back from 3 to something like 6, 7, 8.  Might as well go back to the Bengals and Redskins spots.  If not, I'd rather stay put and take Allen, then hope that Macc does the smart thing with the 3rd round picks, and maybe grabs a 4th rounder for Darron Lee.

Only trade down I would really be interested in is we send Seattle the 3 pick and get back their first round pick and Frank Clark

 

If Allen is even nearly as good as Clark he’s a successful draft pick 

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35 minutes ago, UnitedWhofans said:

"Meanwhile, there’s a feeling inside the building that Allen might take more time to ultimately realize his potential."

It's from Manish's article so the usual grain of salt is required

So...17 sacks in one season isn't his potential?  I'm cool with that.

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1 minute ago, varjet said:

Quinnen will be a solid DT, preferably in a 4-3.  Needs to turn 10 pounds of baby fat to muscle. I think he ends up being a similar player to Leo when Leo was playing hard.   Before Bowles got to him.  

Bosa will be a solid 4-3 DE but will potentially be a management headache and injury risk.  If I am a GM I a drafting hard nosed players from poor backgrounds.  The Bosa’s are too manufactured.   I could be convinced to take him if he is there, but I would rather not. I am actually thinking that he will be there.

Allen’s atheticism is actually underrated.  Allen is the EDGE equivalent to Jamal in a way-hardworking but slightly underathletic/twitch.   Considering that Allen would cost half of what Barr would and is projected to be as good or better, using 3 for him and locking down the 3-4 to me seems like the much better move, if he is there.

What the draft will show is what teams really think about the Joey Bosa experience for the Chargers.  If they like it, he will get picked. 

Allen should go to the Jets if they are really planning on sticking with the 3-4.  

Allen’s game speed is sick.  

 

QW is versatile enough to play in either a 3-4 or 4-3

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1 minute ago, Philc1 said:

I don’t see the jets going 4-3 next year all I can do is rely on what the coaches say publicly

this is what Gase said about Williams in Feb 

“That’s the beauty part of hiring a guy that’s been around for a long time – he’s done multiple things over his career, he’s been both in the 3-4, 4-3," Gase said. “The majority of the snaps are nickel defense anyways.

 

https://www.nj.com/jets/2019/02/nfl-combine-2019-what-made-jets-gregg-williams-stick-with-3-4-base-defense-adam-gase-says.html

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38 minutes ago, bitonti said:

Josh Allen is not among the top 3 players in the draft.

Jets fans are overrating Allen because the team whiffed on Barr and it's such a dire need 

Ed Oliver is a better prospect than Josh Allen. 

I’m not as knowledgeable as a lot of you are when it comes to rating these college players, especially a guy like Oliver.

I think @RobR likes him better then anyone in this draft. Now you’re also saying he’s a better prospect then Josh Allen.

From what I’ve read Oliver is really a athletic, but undersized NT at around 275 lbs. Allen put up huge numbers playing against the highest level of competion.

Can you please explain to me why the two of you, who really study this stuff, think Oliver will be a better fit for the Jets?

Thanks in advance.

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49 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

We passed on Dan Marino and Payton Manning for Kenny O’Brien and James Farrior

 

Now Mac is trying to trade down to draft a Guard

 

What a joke

Wrong but it's Phil.

Jets drafted Farrior over PM?  Total nonsense.  Just like thinking you know who the Jets will or won't draft this year

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8 minutes ago, varjet said:

Quinnen will be a solid DT, preferably in a 4-3.  Needs to turn 10 pounds of baby fat to muscle. I think he ends up being a similar player to Leo when Leo was playing hard.   Before Bowles got to him.  

Bosa will be a solid 4-3 DE but will potentially be a management headache and injury risk.  If I am a GM I a drafting hard nosed players from poor backgrounds.  The Bosa’s are too manufactured.   I could be convinced to take him if he is there, but I would rather not. I am actually thinking that he will be there.

Allen’s atheticism is actually underrated.  Allen is the EDGE equivalent to Jamal in a way-hardworking but slightly underathletic/twitch.   Considering that Allen would cost half of what Barr would and is projected to be as good or better, using 3 for him and locking down the 3-4 to me seems like the much better move, if he is there.

What the draft will show is what teams really think about the Joey Bosa experience for the Chargers.  If they like it, he will get picked. 

Allen should go to the Jets if they are really planning on sticking with the 3-4.  

Great point.  That's my biggest concern about Bosa....he's much closer to the best he'll ever be than most of these other players.  He's been well-coached and groomed for years.  He's learned a lot from his brother, his technique is already solid.  Very good player and a great motor but he's close to his ceiling and an injury risk.

If we stay put at 3 and stay 3-4 then Allen has to be the pick.  I'd come back in a later round and try to fit a big, fat run-stuffing NT to play behind McClendon this year....a Jason Ferguson type from many years ago.   Henry Anderson - Big, new, lane-clogging NT - Leo Williams is an excellent front 3 for a 3-4 IF you have 4 good LBs behind them.....and I like the idea of Jenkins, Mosely, Williamson, Josh Allen behind three guys like that.

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2 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

Only trade down I would really be interested in is we send Seattle the 3 pick and get back their first round pick and Frank Clark

If you trade down from 3 to 21 you better get back more than a "very good" player who you will need to give a massive contract to on top of it. You routinely devalue the #3 pick. 

Clark is a very good edge rusher .He isn't an elite player. If you trade down from 3 to 21 you would normally get back a 2nd, 3rd and a future 1st. If you think Clark is worth all of that.....

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4 minutes ago, bitonti said:

this is what Gase said about Williams in Feb 

“That’s the beauty part of hiring a guy that’s been around for a long time – he’s done multiple things over his career, he’s been both in the 3-4, 4-3," Gase said. “The majority of the snaps are nickel defense anyways.

 

https://www.nj.com/jets/2019/02/nfl-combine-2019-what-made-jets-gregg-williams-stick-with-3-4-base-defense-adam-gase-says.html

OMG....we're taking another Safety!

 

:P

 

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3 minutes ago, bitonti said:

this is what Gase said about Williams in Feb 

“That’s the beauty part of hiring a guy that’s been around for a long time – he’s done multiple things over his career, he’s been both in the 3-4, 4-3," Gase said. “The majority of the snaps are nickel defense anyways.

 

https://www.nj.com/jets/2019/02/nfl-combine-2019-what-made-jets-gregg-williams-stick-with-3-4-base-defense-adam-gase-says.html

Way too much energy is spent worrying about 3-4, 4-3 anymore.  You were 100% correct earlier when you said that Williams likes to attack the gaps and doesn’t worry so much about his D-linemen keeping the linebackers clean.  

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Just now, 14 in Green said:

I’m not as knowledgeable as a lot of you here when it comes to rating these college players, especially a guy like Oliver.

I think @RobR likes him better then anyone in this draft. Now you’re saying he’s a better prospect then Josh Allen.

From what I’ve read Oliver is really a athletic, but undersized NT at around 275 lbs. Allen put up huge numbers playing against the highest level of competion.

Can you please explain to me why the two of you, who really study this stuff, think Oliver will be a better fit for the Jets?

Thanks in advance.

I have not studied the draft as much this year as in year's past. My main focus is the Jets pick at 3

Fit is not included in the evaluation of the prospect. Any prospect worth the 1.3 pick should fit any defense. The DC should make looks up just for that player. 

As for Oliver I'm primarily concerned about getting to Tom Brady. That means inside rush. The league has changed the rules every year now it's all about offense and getting the ball out quick. Josh Allen will get sacks against rookies and losers who hold the ball forever. The Jets need clutch sacks against great QBs to have any shot. 

I'm not bothered between Williams or Oliver whoever falls is fine. I see those 2 on a tier higher than Allen and even Bosa to a certain extent. You can move Oliver outside you can't really rush Bosa or Allen up the middle  

as for Josh Allen he seems one dimensional. Reminds me of Bobby McCray or Andre Branch.

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