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Why don’t we want one of the big 3?


Philc1

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2 minutes ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

If you trade down from 3 to 21 you better get back more than a "very good" player who you will need to give a massive contract to on top of it. You routinely devalue the #3 pick. 

Clark is a very good edge rusher .He isn't an elite player. If you trade down from 3 to 21 you would normally get back a 2nd, 3rd and a future 1st. If you think Clark is worth all of that.....

Clark is what we hope Allen or Bosa will be

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36 minutes ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

Watt was taken 11th, Donald 13th. Revisionist history has Watt and Donald being consensus all time greats out of college. Quinnen is just as good a prospect as Watt/Donald were. Whether he ends up being as good is a different question. 

 

That is a terrible/risky line of thinking to employ. Outliers are outliers, and by definition are not representative of the mean... you start trying to compare their college profile, or NFL projections.... bad idea. Calvin Johnson is never going to be someone you compare a college WR to. Same with Donald... 

Not to mention QW has not earned such praise. Ridiculous at this point. 

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2 minutes ago, Paradis said:

That is a terrible/risky line of thinking to employ. Outliers are outliers, and by definition are not representative of the mean... you start trying to compare their college profile, or NFL projections.... bad idea. Calvin Johnson is never going to be someone you compare a college WR to. Same with Donald... 

Not to mention QW has not earned such praise. Ridiculous at this point. 

Ok fair enough is it a bad idea to say QW is going to be really good?

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We have the third pick in a draft with what is most commonly portrayed as having 3 top-tier defensive players.  So what do some Jets fans do?  find reasons why we are screwed and have to do something different or we failed.  Before we even pick.  If we take Josh Allen, he will be the best player on the board in a position of enormous need.  But people are banging the table for us to pick the undersized DT or else it will be a huge mistake.  Oliver may be a great player, but I see nothing to suggest he will be better for our defense than Allen if both live up to most of their potential.  I can see having strong positive feelings about Oliver, but saying that an Allen pick would be a disaster is pretty hyperbolic. 

Can we just be happy we have a top pick that aligns with value and need no matter who goes 1-2.  

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1 hour ago, Greenbloodblitz said:

That is not true at all Peyton Manning didn't want to be a jet and chose to stay in school cuz we had the first round pick that year

It is true. Peyton would have been a Jet if not for Parcells. Parcells cost us Manning and Bellicheat. He did more harm than good for this franchise.

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1 minute ago, nycdan said:

We have the third pick in a draft with what is most commonly portrayed as having 3 top-tier defensive players.  So what do some Jets fans do?  find reasons why we are screwed and have to do something different or we failed.  Before we even pick.  If we take Josh Allen, he will be the best player on the board in a position of enormous need.  But people are banging the table for us to pick the undersized DT or else it will be a huge mistake.  Oliver may be a great player, but I see nothing to suggest he will be better for our defense than Allen if both live up to most of their potential.  I can see having strong positive feelings about Oliver, but saying that an Allen pick would be a disaster is pretty hyperbolic. 

Can we just be happy we have a top pick that aligns with value and need no matter who goes 1-2.  

This is a reasonable take. The consensus is pretty strong on the top tier being four deep. It's also pretty strong on Hockenson being the best non-QB on offense, so there's a little reality.

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12 minutes ago, 14 in Green said:

I’m not as knowledgeable as a lot of you are when it comes to rating these college players, especially a guy like Oliver.

I think @RobR likes him better then anyone in this draft. Now you’re also saying he’s a better prospect then Josh Allen.

From what I’ve read Oliver is really a athletic, but undersized NT at around 275 lbs. Allen put up huge numbers playing against the highest level of competion.

Can you please explain to me why the two of you, who really study this stuff, think Oliver will be a better fit for the Jets?

Thanks in advance.

This will be the last time I delve into Oliver because these threads are getting so redundant now.

Oliver is a freak of nature athletically. I've never seen a player of his size move the way he does, and lets forget all of the BS that he's 270lbs. He weighed 287lbs. at the combine and slimmed down to 281 for his pro day. 

People point to his lack of sacks in college without mentioning that he played NT(0 tech) in college and was the one player on Houston that teams had to gameplan for. If you watch his game film you will see a player that is double and triple teamed regularly and he still made plays in the backfield. He is lightning quick off of the snap, has a low center of gravity, and uses his hands as good as anyone.

Now we'll go back to the beginning: He was a 5 star recruit coming out of HS. He was a THREE TIME first team All American, won the Outland Trophy as a 19yo Sophomore, and numerous other awards. Again, he is doing this while playing out of position. He is never going to play 0tech in the pros.

Here is a highlight video and I'm not asking you to watch the whole thing. Just key in at the 3 minute mark when he tracks down Mayfield. For a guy his size to move like that it is unheard of. It's also why he tested off of the charts when it comes to athleticism.

 

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10 minutes ago, Paradis said:

That is a terrible/risky line of thinking to employ. Outliers are outliers, and by definition are not representative of the mean... you start trying to compare their college profile, or NFL projections.... bad idea. Calvin Johnson is never going to be someone you compare a college WR to. Same with Donald... 

Not to mention QW has not earned such praise. Ridiculous at this point. 

What exactly is your point?

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25 minutes ago, bitonti said:

I have not studied the draft as much this year as in year's past. My main focus is the Jets pick at 3

Fit is not included in the evaluation of the prospect. Any prospect worth the 1.3 pick should fit any defense. The DC should make looks up just for that player. 

As for Oliver I'm primarily concerned about getting to Tom Brady. That means inside rush. The league has changed the rules every year now it's all about offense and getting the ball out quick. Josh Allen will get sacks against rookies and losers who hold the ball forever. The Jets need clutch sacks against great QBs to have any shot. 

I'm not bothered between Williams or Oliver whoever falls is fine. I see those 2 on a tier higher than Allen and even Bosa to a certain extent. You can move Oliver outside you can't really rush Bosa or Allen up the middle  

as for Josh Allen he seems one dimensional. Reminds me of Bobby McCray or Andre Branch.

Again, I’m no draft expert, but I think a lot of people here are over thinking this draft.

i think most of us would agree we came out of FA with two glaring holes. Center and pass rush.

If I were given the opportunity, the two players I’d target would be Josh Allen, then Elgthon Jenkins in the 3rd. They would fill our obvious positional needs, and would then give us flexibility from our other 3rd round pick on down, and with whoever else we look to pick up through August.

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1 hour ago, Philc1 said:

We passed on Dan Marino and Payton Manning for Kenny O’Brien and James Farrior

 

Now Mac is trying to trade down to draft a Guard

 

What a joke


Curt Warner was drafted 3rd in 83.

Dan Marino was drafted 28th. 

Would you have traded down in 83? 

No one ever passed on Peyton.

This makes as much sense as subtracting by adding. 

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1 hour ago, Philc1 said:

why is this a bad thing?

Are people actually saying it's "bad", or do posters just have other preferences?

I can't speak for others, but I simply prefer my team go a different direction I believe is more conducive to success.

I prefer a trade-down/accumulate more picks/draft offense philosophy for this team as it exists today.

If we draft one of your "big three" so be it, I'll certainly hope they're as elite as their supports think they'll be.

But I believe the best way to build our team is to trade down, acquire multiple 2nd & 3rd picks this year and a 1st or 2nd year.  To take those picks, and focus them on Offensive needs as I see them (Center, TE, WR, O-Line). 

To support Sam Darnold, around whom any chance of future post-season success must be.

That's my view, but I respect others feel differently and do not begrudge them for it.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, 14 in Green said:

Again, I’m no draft expert, but I think a lot of people here are over thinking this draft.

i think most of us would agree we came out of FA with two glaring holes. Center and pass rush.

If I were given the opportunity, the two players I’d target would be Josh Allen, then Elgthon Jenkins in the 3rd. They would fill obvious positional needs, which would then give us flexibility from our other 3rd round pick on down, and with whoever else we look to pick up through August.

Ask for explanation, minimize same as overthinking. Total mystery why nobody who knows anything bothers anymore.

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5 minutes ago, RobR said:

This will be the last time I delve into Oliver because these threads are getting so redundant now.

Oliver is a freak of nature athletically. I've never seen a player of his size move the way he does, and lets forget all of the BS that he's 270lbs. He weighed 287lbs. at the combine and slimmed down to 281 for his pro day. 

People point to his lack of sacks in college without mentioning that he played NT(0 tech) in college and was the one player on Houston that teams had to gameplan for. If you watch his game film you will see a player that is double and triple teamed regularly and he still made plays in the backfield. He is lightning quick off of the snap, has a low center of gravity, and uses his hands as good as anyone.

Now we'll go back to the beginning: He was a 5 star recruit coming out of HS. He was a THREE TIME first team All American, won the Outland Trophy as a 19yo Sophomore, and numerous other awards. Again, he is doing this while playing out of position. He is never going to play 0tech in the pros.

Here is a highlight video and I'm not asking you to watch the whole thing. Just key in at the 3 minute mark when he tracks down Mayfield. For a guy his size to move like that it is unheard of. It's also why he tested off of the charts when it comes to athleticism.

 

Lol. Quinnen Williams isn't in the same league as Oliver. A little stronger at the POA. The quickness, agility, is what makes Oliver so special. He has the twitchyness, and change of direction skills of a linebacker.

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4 minutes ago, genot said:

Lol. Quinnen Williams isn't in the same league as Oliver. A little stronger at the POA. The quickness, agility, is what makes Oliver so special. He has the twitchyness, and change of direction skills of a linebacker.

could he line up off the line like suggs?  reminds me some of suggs.

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18 minutes ago, Untouchable said:

Because a sh*tload of people are obsessed with us moving back and picking up a 2nd round pick to use on a center...when it’s not even remotely guaranteed that we’d use the selection on a center in the first place.

I'm obsessed with  moving back getting a 2nd and if far enough a #1 next year plus another pick in this draft. 

If I looked at the top 3 picks and saw aaron donald, von miller and myles garrett I might have that 'take the defensive beast!' attitude.

I see this draft being weak at the top.  Not bad players but no lead pipe cinch all pros.  The draft has some depth.  The draft does not have a lot of top tier QBs.

This is a year to trade down if you get decent value.

I won;t be really mad if we take an edge rusher if there was no way to trade down.  I will be really mad if we take Quinnen williams.

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13 minutes ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

What exactly is your point?

Boiled down; Guys like Donald or Watt shouldn't come up in conversation with draft projections. If you feel I'm missing your point, maybe, but as a broad brush statement, we need stop bringing up Donalds name, period. 

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3 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

could he line up off the line like suggs?  reminds me some of suggs.

Yes because he is so damn athletic. If I had to pick an edge guy he reminds me of it would be a giant version of James Harrison. Low center of gravity, great bend, and he can bring the power.

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Just now, RobR said:

Yes because he is so damn athletic. If I had to pick an edge guy he reminds me of it would be a giant version of James Harrison. Low center of gravity, great bend, and he can bring the power.

i can see him being more disruptive than Q.  i don't want more lumbering DLs who can't finish plays.  how many times is leo running after the qb but can't catch him? 

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6 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

I'm obsessed with  moving back getting a 2nd and if far enough a #1 next year plus another pick in this draft. 

If I looked at the top 3 picks and saw aaron donald, von miller and myles garrett I might have that 'take the defensive beast!' attitude.

I see this draft being weak at the top.  Not bad players but no lead pipe cinch all pros.  The draft has some depth.  The draft does not have a lot of top tier QBs.

This is a year to trade down if you get decent value.

I won;t be really mad if we take an edge rusher if there was no way to trade down.  I will be really mad if we take Quinnen williams.

I can see where you’re coming from, but I’m on the opposite end.

It would be soooo Jets if they trade down and take someone like Brian Burns and then Elgton Jenkins in the 2nd, Burns turns out to be a 6 sack a year edgerusher, Jenkins can’t even beat out Harrison for the starting center spot, and Bosa and Allen both go on to become 12+ sack a year guys and Top 10 players at their position for a decade.

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5 minutes ago, Paradis said:

Boiled down; Guys like Donald or Watt shouldn't come up in conversation with draft projections. If you feel I'm missing your point, maybe, but as a broad brush statement, we need stop bringing up Donalds name, period. 

I brought up Donald and Watt as the freak athlete IDL you’d use the third pick on as opposed to someone like Quinnen who isn’t in that class athletically. 

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Just now, Paradis said:

Boiled down; Guys like Donald or Watt shouldn't come up in conversation with draft projections. If you feel I'm missing your point, maybe, but as a broad brush statement, we need stop bringing up Donalds name, period. 

Fair enough. 

My argument is simply that both Quinnen and Oliver are great prospects. Oliver has a higher ceiling,  but he comes with a few more question marks. I wasn't comparing either to Aaron Donald the NFL player. 

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11 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Are people actually saying it's "bad", or do posters just have other preferences?

I can't speak for others, but I simply prefer my team go a different direction I believe is more conducive to success.

I prefer a trade-down/accumulate more picks/draft offense philosophy for this team as it exists today.

If we draft one of your "big three" so be it, I'll certainly hope they're as elite as their supports think they'll be.

But I believe the best way to build our team is to trade down, acquire multiple 2nd & 3rd picks this year and a 1st or 2nd year.  To take those picks, and focus them on Offensive needs as I see them (Center, TE, WR, O-Line). 

To support Sam Darnold, around whom any chance of future post-season success must be.

That's my view, but I respect others feel differently and do not begrudge them for it.

 

 

Been saying it since I got here. While I’d like Bosa/Allen I REALLY want to build line like Dallas had a couple years back and getting that Guard from Oakland was our best offseason move and I’d like to see one of the top 2 centers and a top LT it RT all taken in the first 3 rounds and if it means trading out if the 3 to do so, I am all for it. 

Protecting Darnold and surrounding him with playmakers is the Prime Directive. 

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You can look back at every year in the draft and see 50% busts throughout the 1st round. 

Maybe 40% busts at the top and 60% 2nd half of the 1st round but all of these experts get it wrong every year. 

Then every year this is the year we know what we're talking about. 

Of course you want to pick as high as you can but it's always smart to have more chances. 

Lucky or smart? Make your own luck by giving yourself more chances. Later picks are also cheaper. 

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9 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

i can see him being more disruptive than Q.  i don't want more lumbering DLs who can't finish plays.  how many times is leo running after the qb but can't catch him? 

Exactly. QW will be a fine player at the next level, probably go to some pro bowls and get his 5-8 sacks a year. Oliver has the potential to be a DPOY. 

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11 minutes ago, RobR said:

I wish all of the QW lovers could post some video of him moving around like that. OOPS I forgot, it doesn't exist.

Quinnen's highlight reel plays are pretty impressive if you cared to search for them. Ed Oliver's highlights are definitely more exciting/explosive. There is no question he is a better athlete. However, Ed Oliver's highlights from this year come from games against Memphis/Navy/ECU/Tulsa/Texas Southern/TTU/Arizona/Rice. That is all. He didn't face a single team that finished in the top 25. 

Quinnen was dominating the SEC. 

Oliver was likely misused. 

I can see the case for Oliver, but many here are severely undervaluing Quinnen. 

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