Maccagnan on why Jets didn't trade down

[nycdan]

2 hours ago, Philc1 said:

You guys realize you can’t just trade down at will?

You can.  The Vikings did once.  You just don't get good compensation for doing it

 

[IndianaJet]

I said this in the draft forum in a 2020 draft prospect thread.

Herbert (Oregon QB) really ****ed us by staying in school.  He would have been seen as much better QB prospect than Haskins and Jones in this draft. 

Between him and Murray there would have been more teams willing to sell the farm to get into the top 5 and draft one of the two.

[nycdan]

3 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

The Raiders taking Ferrell at 4 without trading back is a far bigger waste of draft resources than taking the best player in the Draft at #3.

I love what we did with our first 3 picks....as much as I hate what we did with our final 3 picks. 

I have misgivings about those picks as well, but if even one of them pans out as a significant contributor, the risk/reward will have been worth it.  This year his philosophy seems to have been guys with red flags but who have demonstrated ability to play several rounds higher than where they were picked.  If they all flame out, then it's going to look awful in a year or two.  

But just a little perspective.  From the 2016 draft, a total of 2 5th rounders and no 6th or 7th rounders made a pro bowl in 3 years, and one of the two was Tyreek Hill who was great but is now going to be gone.   Exactly the same numbers from the 2015 draft.  And while 2017 is only 2 seasons in, there was only 1 pro bowler in the 5th round and none after.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_NFL_Draft

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_NFL_Draft

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_NFL_Draft

So I don't get too excited about these round 5-7 players because there is about a 2% chance of them making a pro bowl in their first 3 years.

[choon328]

14 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

I don’t know about that.  He took Hackenburg in the second round and made a major trade up to number three a month before the draft. One of those moves crashed and the other seems to have been a major success. Both were big-time decisions that could be criticized. 

Making 1 bold decision to make a trade up does not mean he's bold. And he was forced to do it last year. Had he not been aggressive and lost out on the QB's he'd be out of a job. He's passed up countless opportunities to trade down when the "best" player in the draft fell to him.

Last year the Saints traded away a future 1 to move up to get Marcus Davenport. You can't tell me he hasn't had many opportunities to trade down. 

[CurtMart]

4 hours ago, ComfortablyNumb said:

Raiders tried to trade back and get Ferrell later and the phone didn’t ring for them. Whatever offers the Jets were hearing were trash and then this board would have gone crazy at Mac for not getting enough. Plenty to criticize Mac about but this isn’t one of them.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Sams thing happened with the Leonard Williams and the Jamal Adams picks. We were rumored to trade down both times. And we failed. Even with Leonard on the board, who was considered the best in the draft, we couldn’t muster a half decent deal. Some considered Adams to be the best in his draft class and we failed to trade down them too. Seems like a Macc problem more than anything else. He’s able to swing a deal to move up at will it seems. 

[ComfortablyNumb]

Sams thing happened with the Leonard Williams and the Jamal Adams picks. We were rumored to trade down both times. And we failed. Even with Leonard on the board, who was considered the best in the draft, we couldn’t muster a half decent deal. Some considered Adams to be the best in his draft class and we failed to trade down them too. Seems like a Macc problem more than anything else. He’s able to swing a deal to move up at will it seems. 

That is a possibility for sure. He may not have the edge to really negotiate but as mentioned here earlier, teams aren’t trading up anymore for anything but top level QB’s.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[CurtMart]

2 minutes ago, ComfortablyNumb said:

 

That is a possibility for sure. He may not have the edge to really negotiate but as mentioned here earlier, teams aren’t trading up anymore for anything but top level QB’s.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

I get that, but we drafted 3 out 5 players early in the draft that were considered the best in their class (the 4th was our biggest need). It’s just our luck we kept getting defensive players. Anyhow, I’m sure Giants would’ve thrown in the kitchen sink to trade with Jets for the rights to select Daniel freaking Jones! Or not. 

[choon328]

8 minutes ago, ComfortablyNumb said:

 

That is a possibility for sure. He may not have the edge to really negotiate but as mentioned here earlier, teams aren’t trading up anymore for anything but top level QB’s.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

Saints gave up a future 1st round pick to move up and draft a DE last year. So that isn't true. 

Teams are not willing to pay a premium to move up for a defensive player but there are always trades to be made when the best player in the draft falls to you. It's just a matter of if you're willing to take a little less to get the deal done.

[#27TheDominator]

10 minutes ago, nycdan said:

I have misgivings about those picks as well, but if even one of them pans out as a significant contributor, the risk/reward will have been worth it.  This year his philosophy seems to have been guys with red flags but who have demonstrated ability to play several rounds higher than where they were picked.  If they all flame out, then it's going to look awful in a year or two.  

But just a little perspective.  From the 2016 draft, a total of 2 5th rounders and no 6th or 7th rounders made a pro bowl in 3 years, and one of the two was Tyreek Hill who was great but is now going to be gone.   Exactly the same numbers from the 2015 draft.  And while 2017 is only 2 seasons in, there was only 1 pro bowler in the 5th round and none after.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_NFL_Draft

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_NFL_Draft

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_NFL_Draft

So I don't get too excited about these round 5-7 players because there is about a 2% chance of them making a pro bowl in their first 3 years.

Do players have to make a pro bowl to contribute?  There is a pretty huge gap between pro bowl and contributing NFL player.  Aaron Jones never made a pro bowl, but there is a pretty gulf between his production and Dylan Donahue, who was taken a pick earlier.  Non-pro bowlers from that 2015 5th include Stefon Diggs, Adrian Amos and Grady Jarrett. 

Nobody is complaining that he doesn't draft 7 pro bowlers every year.  We are complaining that our drafts have generally consisted of a chalk pick at the very top of the draft, and little else of value.  The hits have also leaned very heavily on non-premium positions - non-pass rush Dline, S, P. 

[Fantasy Island]

It was never a situation where we were trying to get out of the third pick," Maccagnan told Rapoport. "We actually felt very comfortable being there. We said very publicly we were going to get a very good player at 3.

 

What Mac is really saying is he is beyond his depth.

[Jetster]

1 hour ago, Augustiniak said:

the raiders would have traded up with the 49ers and we'd have bosa.

And 50% of this board didn't want Bosa either because of injury & concerns he was highly overated based on his family genetics. 

Now if his last name was Matthews that's a different story. That family is like Ironmen.

[T0mShane]

3 hours ago, Untouchable said:

Sounds about right to me

You don’t trade back just for the sake of trading back.

There were some around here who were willing to take nothing more than a 2nd and 3rd to move all the way back to #15. F*ck that noise.

So, let’s say that Maccagnan makes that hypothetical trade with the Redskins, getting his clock cleaned on the value chart in the process, and then goes into the draft with those picks. Which draft haul would you prefer: 

As is:

1. Quinnen Williams

3a. Jachai Polite

3b. Chuma Edoga 

4. Trevon Wesco

5. Blake Cashman

6. Blessuan Austin 

 

Or (post-clock cleaning)

1. Brian Burns, EDGE, FSU

2. Greedy Williams, CB, LSU or Erik McCoy, C, TAMU

3a. David Montgomery, RB, Iowa State

3b. David Long, CB, Michigan or Connor McGovern, C, PSU

3c. Chuma Edoga, OT, USC

4. Trevon Wesco

5. Blake Cashman

6. Kelvin Harmon, WR, NC State

7. Mike Weber, RB, Ohio State

 

This is why Maccagnan saying he couldn’t get “fair value” is a canard. The question isn’t about value for any one pick, it’s about how that return can improve the roster over the course of the rebuild. Clearly, the second draft better positions the Jets moving forward, even if you take some short-term hurt on the value chart. The first draft is fine if those 500 points you saved on the value chart we’re going to suit up for you on Sundays, but it’s not. They’re gone and no one remembers how many points you saved the team when that team is 4-12 three years later 

[JetFreak89]

26 minutes ago, nycdan said:

I have misgivings about those picks as well, but if even one of them pans out as a significant contributor, the risk/reward will have been worth it.  This year his philosophy seems to have been guys with red flags but who have demonstrated ability to play several rounds higher than where they were picked.  If they all flame out, then it's going to look awful in a year or two.  

But just a little perspective.  From the 2016 draft, a total of 2 5th rounders and no 6th or 7th rounders made a pro bowl in 3 years, and one of the two was Tyreek Hill who was great but is now going to be gone.   Exactly the same numbers from the 2015 draft.  And while 2017 is only 2 seasons in, there was only 1 pro bowler in the 5th round and none after.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_NFL_Draft

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_NFL_Draft

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_NFL_Draft

So I don't get too excited about these round 5-7 players because there is about a 2% chance of them making a pro bowl in their first 3 years.

Hence why the Pats use these picks in trades to pick up disgruntled NFL vets on other teams or to move around the draft. 

[playtowinthegame]

5 hours ago, nyjbuddy said:

The GM wasn't bothered by Polite's reported poor pre-draft process, telling Rapoport that Ravens legend Terrell Suggshad a terrible 40 when he was coming out of Arizona State.

 

 

+1 @Jack Straw

[nycdan]

3 minutes ago, JetFreak89 said:

Hence why the Pats use these picks in trades to pick up disgruntled NFL vets on other teams or to move around the draft. 

We've done that often as well.  How many 5th round picks did we convert into productive WRs?  I forget which ones exactly but some of Holmes, Burress, Edwards, Marshall came that way.  That's one of the reasons, I'm not too concerned if we don't draft a mid-round WR.  They seem to always be available, unlike OL who appear to be much harder to find that way.

[nycdan]

14 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

Do players have to make a pro bowl to contribute?  There is a pretty huge gap between pro bowl and contributing NFL player.  Aaron Jones never made a pro bowl, but there is a pretty gulf between his production and Dylan Donahue, who was taken a pick earlier.  Non-pro bowlers from that 2015 5th include Stefon Diggs, Adrian Amos and Grady Jarrett. 

Nobody is complaining that he doesn't draft 7 pro bowlers every year.  We are complaining that our drafts have generally consisted of a chalk pick at the very top of the draft, and little else of value.  The hits have also leaned very heavily on non-premium positions - non-pass rush Dline, S, P. 

Fair point.  I didn't have the time or patience to sort through them all and figure out who produced and who didn't but your examples are good.  I would add that a fair amount of what those mid-late rounders produce isn't just their talent, but also scheme and coaching fits.  That's really hard to quantify, but I'm hopeful that some of the guys we drafted in the past few years that haven't done much yet, might become a little more productive under a new coaching staff.  That's the hope, anyway

 

[Jetster]

5 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

So, let’s say that Maccagnan makes that hypothetical trade with the Redskins, getting his clock cleaned on the value chart in the process, and then goes into the draft with those picks. Which draft haul would you prefer: 

As is:

1. Quinnen Williams

3a. Jachai Polite

3b. Chuma Edoga 

4. Trevon Wesco

5. Blake Cashman

6. Blessuan Austin 

 

Or (post-clock cleaning)

1. Brian Burns, EDGE, FSU

2. Greedy Williams, CB, LSU or Erik McCoy, C, TAMU

3a. David Montgomery, RB, Iowa State

3b. David Long, CB, Michigan or Connor McGovern, C, PSU

3c. Chuma Edoga, OT, USC

4. Trevon Wesco

5. Blake Cashman

6. Kelvin Harmon, WR, NC State

7. Mike Weber, RB, Ohio State

 

This is why Maccagnan saying he couldn’t get “fair value” is a canard. The question isn’t about value for any one pick, it’s about how that return can improve the roster over the course of the rebuild. Clearly, the second draft better positions the Jets moving forward, even if you take some short-term hurt on the value chart. The first draft is fine if those 500 points you saved on the value chart we’re going to suit up for you on Sundays, but it’s not. They’re gone and no one remembers how many points you saved the team when that team is 4-12 three years later 

I guess it depends on whether QW turns out to be Warren Sapp like & Brian Burns turns out to be Dante Fowler like? 

Who the hell knows really? What we do know is a less talented team in the Pats went on the road & took out the high flying Chiefs & then BB discombobulated Goff in the Super Bowl. 

Rams defense held the Pats to 3 points through three quarters, Goff just needed to make 2 plays to win that game. 

[T0mShane]

26 minutes ago, Jetster said:

I guess it depends on whether QW turns out to be Warren Sapp like & Brian Burns turns out to be Dante Fowler like? 

Who the hell knows really? What we do know is a less talented team in the Pats went on the road & took out the high flying Chiefs & then BB discombobulated Goff in the Super Bowl. 

Rams defense held the Pats to 3 points through three quarters, Goff just needed to make 2 plays to win that game. 

Sure, it remains to be seen how Willians and Burns turn out, but even in the second one you’re giving yourself a few more lotto tickets to try and hit big. 

[rangerous]

good grief.  if the deal isn't there you don't trade down.  without knowing the actual deals in play it's hard to say but it's not good practice to trade with teams in one's own division and one of the potential reals was with the bills.  imo macs drafting problem isn't with his first round choices but with the way he seems to go after those guys who have been devalued because of recent injury or other issues.  the problem is that these issues are part of the game and not every player is capable of regaining their form.  5 shoulder surgeries or 2 acl injuries on the same knee seem like a little too much no matter who the player is.

[jetstream23]

2 hours ago, choon328 said:

Making 1 bold decision to make a trade up does not mean he's bold. And he was forced to do it last year. Had he not been aggressive and lost out on the QB's he'd be out of a job. He's passed up countless opportunities to trade down when the "best" player in the draft fell to him.

Last year the Saints traded away a future 1 to move up to get Marcus Davenport. You can't tell me he hasn't had many opportunities to trade down. 

I can't vigorously defend Macc because his record is mostly indefensible.  He's been a lot more bad than good.  But the idea he's done nothing right is ridiculous.  Macc has drafted poorly and that is mostly his fault (although the Jets have made major changes in scouting the past couple years).  But if he's going to get hammered for the Hackenberg pick (as he should) then he should get credit for going "all in" during March last year with the calculated trade up.  He should also get some credit for trades in addition to just the Henry Anderson and Brandon Marshall ones I mentioned.  We signed Teddy B and flipped him for a 3rd...good move.  We traded a late round pick for Osemele who plugs in as an immediate starter at LG.  That asset is part of this 2019 Draft class.  It is conveniently forgotten by a lot of people here.

As for the top of this year's draft and not trading down....The Jets staying put at #3 for Quinnen Williams looks 1000X better than the Raiders staying put at #4 for Clelin Ferrell.  There is no way on Earth that Ferrell was going in the Top 10 with guys like Allen and Oliver still being on the Board at 7 and 9.  How the Raiders couldn't move back in the 1st Round from #4 is a bigger crime than the Jets not moving back in order to stay put and get the consensus top talent of the 2019 class.

The last thing I'll say is that Macc did not make a tough situation any worse.  A small part of Sam Darnold is in this Draft class as well by way of the 2nd round pick the Jets gave up.  If Macc thinks his job is on the line this year (and it is), then a panicky GM might do something stupid like trade a 2020 3rd round pick for a current year, 2019 2nd round pick.  I'm glad that all future year assets were kept.

[Miss Lonelyhearts]

2 hours ago, #27TheDominator said:

Not a sure thing means that it is okay to miss on all of them?  Wait, I'm sorry. I will give you Jordan Jenkins, but not the punter or Shell.  

A third day pick starting for the majority of his rookie contract isn't a miss. Yes, luck. Yes, lack of anybody better. Result is still way above expectation.

[jetstream23]

Best case scenario for this Draft class is that by 2020, they've got 3 starters at important positions (Q. Williams, Polite and Edoga), one significant contributor (likely Wesco) and then Cashman and Austin seem like they'll stick to some degree....maybe rotational, Special Teams, etc.

Worst case is that Quinnen Williams is Leo Part II, and everyone else sucks or busts out.

Like usual, we'll be somewhere in the middle.  I think it will come down to Round 3.  You draft the premiere positions early (QB, LT, CB, Edge are the most valuable individual positions).  Even if QW is just very good but the Jets found two starters at the key positions of Edge Rusher and LT then we're golden.

[TheClashFan]

6 hours ago, nyjbuddy said:

"It was never a situation where we were trying to get out of the third pick," Maccagnan told Rapoport. "We actually felt very comfortable being there. We said very publicly we were going to get a very good player at 3. But we went through our process in talking to teams.

"I think when we were sitting there with our situation, I think we looked at the possibility of trading back or trading out of the spot. But when we were on the clock and talking to teams, there was never really a trade offer that we felt was strong enough to make us move basically when it was all said and done. That being said, we were very happy to take what we felt was one of the top players in the draft at that spot (Quinnen Williams) and went forward with it."

Sigh. Everyone will interpreter this to their own devices, but sounds like he really had no interest in trading down, despite a crappy roster with many needs. The "went through our process" sounds half-hearted, as if he answered the phone a few times and that's pretty much it.

If this was a first or second year GM, then fine, I'd give him the benefit of the doubt. But it's not. Sounds like there were trade offers, but none that he liked.  I would love to ask him what were 1 or 2 offers that he got that were not "strong enough."  Was he low-balled, or did he overplay his hand?

I'd prefer if the guy had said, "Look, were were very interested in trading down, and we contacted a number of teams, but the lack of quality QBs in the draft meant that we got nothing but poor, unacceptable offers."  Instead, we get corporate-speak as Mac shuffles the deck on DL.

 

[jetstream23]

2 hours ago, nycdan said:

I have misgivings about those picks as well, but if even one of them pans out as a significant contributor, the risk/reward will have been worth it.  This year his philosophy seems to have been guys with red flags but who have demonstrated ability to play several rounds higher than where they were picked.  If they all flame out, then it's going to look awful in a year or two.  

But just a little perspective.  From the 2016 draft, a total of 2 5th rounders and no 6th or 7th rounders made a pro bowl in 3 years, and one of the two was Tyreek Hill who was great but is now going to be gone.   Exactly the same numbers from the 2015 draft.  And while 2017 is only 2 seasons in, there was only 1 pro bowler in the 5th round and none after.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_NFL_Draft

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_NFL_Draft

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_NFL_Draft

So I don't get too excited about these round 5-7 players because there is about a 2% chance of them making a pro bowl in their first 3 years.

This jives with my dissatisfaction about how the Jets handled Day 3 of our Draft.  I did not want to see the trade down in Round 4 that ultimately turned 2 picks on Day 3 into 3 picks.  Would rather have stayed put for higher quality guys.  Could have had CB Julian Love or WR Riley Ridley in the 4th and then come back with C Lamont Gaillard or WR Kelvin Harmon.  In my humble opinion, a 2-player combination like that is more likely to improve the team than a Wesco (who I like), Cashman, Austin group.

[Peace Frog]

So wait, you’re saying he didn’t trade down because he didn’t get any offers he thought were worthy since there were no QBs teams were clamoring for?

I thought it was because he had signaled to the world that he was desperate to move down. 

Funny. 

[Long Island Leprechaun]

4 hours ago, T0mShane said:

Five years in, unfortunately, this is the only team that any man could have assembled. Restrained by cruel fate year after year to be both stuck in one draft slot but fortunate enough to have the best player in the draft fall to that draft slot, Maccagnan—just one mortal man—did what he could. Hark, you query, how could a player be both “the best player in the draft” and still generate no interest from teams drafting behind the Jets? A solid question, I suppose, but we have to give Mike Maccagnan the benefit of the doubt, for as we’ve seen, he’s a shrewd negotiator who knows very well the real value of talent. If Warren Buffet were to invest his fortune into cryptocurrencies and go bankrupt in five years, we would believe him when he said that owning a lot of digital currency was the best available way to allocate his resources, and we’d believe him. Granted, Mike Maccagnan has never built a Buffet-like fortune, but he did help scout college talent for the Houston Texans during a period where they went 55-96, so that’s kinda like building a fortune. The point is, when you look at the roster today, realize that no one—NO ONE—could have done a better, more courageous job of building it, because there was nothing else to be done. Nothing.

I'd say about 80% of your arguments are essentially straw men that you prop up and then knock down. It feels clever perhaps, but is actually incredibly lazy. Who is arguing the above? Correct, no one. The reference to Warren Buffett is grabbed out of nowhere and doesn't make any point at all, even as a merely superficial attempt to be clever. But it does feed the snark patrol their daily snack of empty calories. And the verbal circle jerk continues.

[Xtina]

Blah blah blah he is so full of sh!t 

[dcJet]

I think the presence of Oliver completely killed a trade up for Q.  If Bosa was available, maybe we get a good deal from someone.

 

[dcJet]

Oakland was in a terrible spot - at the beginning of the 2nd tier and in love with a third tier guy.

[Jetsfan80]

3 hours ago, billneftleberg said:

Actually your just biased and stupid. It takes two to make a trade. And why ever trade an elite player for a lesser one unless you truly believe you're getting least equal value. 

Drafting is an inexact science. Darnold. L.Williams.Q.Williams. Adams. All fine picks . After the top picks no pick is a sure thing. Gittleman took  a guy reputed to be the 7th or 8th ranked QB at 6. 

so be happy MacCagnan wasn't as stupid as you obviously are and trust me YOU make Gittleman look like a genius by comparison. 

 

You're right.  Macc deserves so much credit for getting moderately decent players with his top 10 picks and no blame for whiffing on all but a couple mid-round picks.  All the best GM's in the league have the exact same type of resume.  The draft is all luck, even though everyone knew Hackenberg and Mauldin would suck.  Surely no one could do better at evaluating talent even when coming from Houston highly regarded as a talent evaluator. 

[Jetsfan80]

2 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

The Raiders taking Ferrell at 4 without trading back is a far bigger waste of draft resources than taking the best player in the Draft at #3.

I love what we did with our first 3 picks....as much as I hate what we did with our final 3 picks. 

So we're better than the Raiders.  At least we have that going for us. 

[Jetsfan80]

And are you guys seriously trying to say that a good GM wouldn't be able to pump fake that someone was looking to move up for Haskins or Daniel Jones?  Really?  That's negotiating 101, and Macc has never proven able to do that.

Dude sucks at negotiating and talent evaluation.  Luckily that's only 99 % of a GM's job. 

[slats]

5 hours ago, Untouchable said:

Sounds about right to me

You don’t trade back just for the sake of trading back.

There were some around here who were willing to take nothing more than a 2nd and 3rd to move all the way back to #15. F*ck that noise.

There were people here willing to take a second and a sixth! 

Unless you're Terry Bradway, teams don't generally trade up for DTs. Jets needed someone to covet one of the QBs or Allen. Outside of the the jints taking Jones #6, everyone else lasted longer than the prognosticators predicted. I don't know what the Bills offered -if they offered anything- but trading down to #9 would've been a little dicey. I know the OL cult here would've pounced on Jonah at that spot, but Mac easily could've taken Rashan Gary. And Buffalo wound up getting the guy they (and I) would've taken at #3 at #9, so how scared were they really that he wouldn't be there when they were on the clock? Mac taking QW was the most prdictable pick in the top six. 

[ZachEY]

3 hours ago, billneftleberg said:

Actually your just biased and stupid. It takes two to make a trade. And why ever trade an elite player for a lesser one unless you truly believe you're getting least equal value.

Drafting is an inexact science. Darnold. L.Williams.Q.Williams. Adams. All fine picks . After the top picks no pick is a sure thing. Gittleman took  a guy reputed to be the 7th or 8th ranked QB at 6.

so be happy MacCagnan wasn't as stupid as you obviously are and trust me YOU make Gittleman look like a genius by comparison.

All the ironies

[ZachEY]

5 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

So we're better than the Raiders.  At least we have that going for us. 

Laugh now, wait till we replace Macc with Kiper.