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PFF Makes the Case for Leo


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https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-leonard-williams-continued-improvement-as-a-pass-rusher-could-take-the-jets-defense-to-a-whole-new-level-in-2019

Leonard Williams' continued improvement as a pass rusher could take the Jets defense to a whole new level in 2019

BY DANIEL RYMER • MAY 2, 2019

GettyImages-869589598.jpg?w=916&h=720EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ - NOVEMBER 02: Defensive end Leonard Williams #92 of the New York Jets celebrates as the Buffalo Bills huddle together during the third quarter of the game at MetLife Stadium on November 2, 2017 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)

The New York Jets were relatively successful on the defensive side of the ball in 2018, ranking 12th in overall defensive grade (83.5) in the NFL. A large reason for the Jets’ defensive success was their run defense, as they ranked fifth in the NFL with an elite run-defense grade of 90.7. Of course, safety Jamal Adams was the star of the show as he was one of our highest-graded safeties in the league last season, but lost in Adams’ breakout campaign was Leonard Williams, who has quietly become a game changer against the run.

Leonard Williams now has four NFL seasons under his belt, and he has earned an overall grade above 75.0 in every year of his short career so far. Williams’ overall grade of 78.2 last season ranked 32nd out of 129 qualifying interior defenders, and third out of 15 qualifying interior defenders from his draft class back in 2015, trailing only Grady Jarrett and Eddie Goldman.

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Williams has been one of the most dominant forces against the run since being drafted, ranking among the top in several different run-defense metrics. Among 98 interior defenders with at least 500 run-defense snaps since 2015, Williams’ run-defense grade of 88.2 ranks 15th. In addition, he also has the third-most run stops (116), third-most tackles for no gain or loss (53), and fifth-most counts of making the first contact on a runner (183) at the position. It’s safe to say that Williams’ ability to move bodies and disrupt run plays is evident after four years in the NFL.

Given his dominant run defense, Williams could jump into elite territory if he just improved as a pass rusher. Although he’s coming off a career-high pass-rush grade of 71.4 last season – ranking 19th out of 129 interior defenders – he still has yet to earn a pass-rush grade above 75.0 for a single season, something that guys like Aaron Donald and Fletcher Cox can probably do in their sleep.

With 53 total pressures (six sacks, 16 hits, 31 hurries) on 509 pass-rush snaps last season, Williams had the 24th-best pass-rushing productivity rating (5.8) out of 121 qualifying interior defenders. Obviously, that’s not bad at all, but it’s also not elite, so if he can make that jump in 2019, he could transform himself from a great interior defender into an elite one. After all, stopping the pass is becoming exponentially more important than stopping the run in today’s NFL.

Now that the Jets have found their franchise quarterback in Sam Darnold to go with an up-and-coming defense, they have many reasons to be optimistic about their future, and Leonard Williams plays a big part in that. He did increase his pass-rushing grade by nearly five points from 2017 to 2018, which is a good sign for his continued progress as a pass rusher. If Williams can put together a similar increase in 2019, and Quinnen Williams can live up to his sky-high potential, the Jets can become winners sooner rather than later.

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Leo is good enough to keep as long as we pay him the kind of money lets say snacks got from the giants. i would certainly not pay him as a top DL just because he has the potential to be. i feel like that boat has sailed a little bit.

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3 minutes ago, k-met57 said:

Leo is good enough to keep as long as we pay him the kind of money lets say snacks got from the giants. i would certainly not pay him as a top DL just because he has the potential to be. i feel like that boat has sailed a little bit.

By the end of next season, he'll still only be 25 yrs old. Think about it.

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1 minute ago, Lith said:

Generally, I like PFF.  I appreciate their effort to grade players as a way of comparing players where you can't really rely on stats to analyze impact.  But there are times where they certainly leave you scratching your head.  Like how can the Jets have a defensive grade of 83.5 when they only have 1 player on the Jets defense graded above 83.5.  I am not a math whiz, but I do not see how they can possibly decide that the following ratings justify an 83.5 overall team grade:

  • Jamal Adams 89.7 
  • Marcus Maye 81.5
  • Darryl Roberts 68.9
  • Morris Claiborne 62.7
  • Trumaine Johnson 74.9
  • Buster Skrine 57.3
  • Jordan Jenkins 52.4
  • Brandon Copeland 67.4
  • Darron Lee 72.4
  • Avery Williamson 74.3
  • Leo Williams 78.2
  • Steve McLendon 78.5
  • Henry Anderson 76.5

And somehow, these grades equate to an 83.5 defensive grade.  Maybe I am missing something in the PFF methodology, but this sure is a head scratcher to me.

I think they might be factoring in how many snaps each of those players had, and factor that in?

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He mentioned about being double-teamed often.

is there a stat that actually tracks this? If so, it’d be interesting to see just what the % vs his peers.

Fun how articles like this suddenly surface? i think they’ve kept some salary cap money unspent to actually lock him into a long term contract. 

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13 minutes ago, Lith said:

Generally, I like PFF.  I appreciate their effort to grade players as a way of comparing players where you can't really rely on stats to analyze impact.  But there are times where they certainly leave you scratching your head.  Like how can the Jets have a defensive grade of 83.5 when they only have 1 player on the Jets defense graded above 83.5.  I am not a math whiz, but I do not see how they can possibly decide that the following ratings justify an 83.5 overall team grade:

  • Jamal Adams 89.7 
  • Marcus Maye 81.5
  • Darryl Roberts 68.9
  • Morris Claiborne 62.7
  • Trumaine Johnson 74.9
  • Buster Skrine 57.3
  • Jordan Jenkins 52.4
  • Brandon Copeland 67.4
  • Darron Lee 72.4
  • Avery Williamson 74.3
  • Leo Williams 78.2
  • Steve McLendon 78.5
  • Henry Anderson 76.5

And somehow, these grades equate to an 83.5 defensive grade.  Maybe I am missing something in the PFF methodology, but this sure is a head scratcher to me.

If your only exposure to the Jets was this message board, you'd think the Jets gave up 50 points a game and every other defense gave up 3. 

Even skrine was a serviceable player. In today's NFL where every QB passes for 4k yards it's tough to find a secondary filled with shut down corners.

The only PFF grade that surprises is trumaine Johnson.

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This team is going to be really great against the run. Maybe the best run defense in the league. At all 3 levels of the defense this team is elite. The whole Dline are big 300 lb men of brick wall. We have one of the best run defending lbs in Mosley and Jamal Adams is the best safety in the league against the run. 

Too bad it’s 2019 and not the 20th century. 

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20 minutes ago, CanadienJetsFan said:

He mentioned about being double-teamed often.

is there a stat that actually tracks this? If so, it’d be interesting to see just what the % vs his peers.

Fun how articles like this suddenly surface? i think they’ve kept some salary cap money unspent to actually lock him into a long term contract. 

Part of the good news if they signed him long term is maybe, just maybe we will stop drafting DTs especially in the 1st round.

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1 hour ago, k-met57 said:

Leo is good enough to keep as long as we pay him the kind of money lets say snacks got from the giants. i would certainly not pay him as a top DL just because he has the potential to be. i feel like that boat has sailed a little bit.

Yes; If he only gets better because the talent around him improves, doesn't really make you want to sign him to a long term max contract. Worry is Coffee Boy as GM next year around this time might spend that kind of money to justify the pick no matter what. Think QW is going to be good, but still devoting this much resources to DL guys who so far don't get to the QB is crazy. This really is a make or break year; if the DL is very effective getting to the QB, would happily take back all of this naysaying and write that big check. if not...

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As with the extolling of DBs, Jets as a franchise keep telling us how important run stopping is, despite them getting their asses handed to them by teams like the Pats and Dolphins who barely bother to run the ball at all. Nobody gives a sheet about the vaunted run stopping of the Jets defense as they folded like cheap picnic tables every 4th quarter under Bowles. And as with DBs, they're selling you on things that aren't all that important. Teams in 2019 run enough to keep the defense guessing, play action or trying to burn clock with a lead late in the game. The successful team-the Pats, Chiefs, Rams, Saints, all pass oriented offenses-don't really run much more than that. 

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3 minutes ago, kelly said:

 

We will have advanced as a society when people stop giving a f__ about what Max Kellerman, Mike Francesa, Screaming A. Smith and Adam Schein and their ilk think about anything.

Point is as badly run as the Giants may be, run-stopping DTs are not a highly valuable commodity. You can sign a Damon Harrison or Mike Devito every March for a reasonable price. A DT like Aaron Donald or Hali Ngata who creates chaos and gets to the QB (what you hope QW is) doesn't hit the market until they're almost done. 

Recall after the Doug Brien game, Smith suggested the jets should have attempted kicking the FG on 3rd rather than 4th down, so if it was no good, they could kick again on 4th. Apparently a steady diet of sniffing NBA player jocks causes brain damage. How does this guy keep making the big bucks? 

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2 minutes ago, Bugg said:

We will have advanced as a society when people stop giving a f__ about what Max Kellerman, Mike Francesa, Screaming A. Smith and Adam Schein and their ilk think about anything.

Point is as badly run as the Giants may be, run-stopping DTs are not a highly valuable commodity. You can sign a Damon Harrison or Mike Devito every March for a reasonable price. A DT like Aaron Donald or Hali Ngata who creates chaos and gets to the QB (what you hope QW is) doesn't hit the market until they're almost done. 

Recall after the Doug Brien game, Smith suggested the jets should have attempted kicking the FG on 3rd rather than 4th down, so if it was no good, they could kick again on 4th. Apparently a steady diet of sniffing NBA player jocks causes brain damage. How does this guy keep making the big bucks? 

Think he's sniffing a bunch of stuff, but jocks aren't in the mix.?

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1 hour ago, joewilly12 said:

Leonard Williams can only get better surrounded by better talent and in different schemes. 

Looking forward to his success here. 

 

This is indeed what you want.  A 6th overall pick that has to have a 3rd overall pick next to him playing NT so he can get 8 sacks instead of 5.

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1 hour ago, Patriot Killa said:

We better be the #1 run stuffing team next year considering the elite run stuffers we added to an already impressive run stuffing team. Jamal Adams, C.J Mosley, Jordan Jenkins, Leo Williams, Quinnen Williams, Avery Williamson and Henry Anderson.

now only if it meant more than pass rushing.?

I love our D in third and short.  Guarantees a team will run, and often fail.  Passing downs were another thing entirely

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3 minutes ago, section314 said:

Think he's sniffing a bunch of stuff, but jocks aren't in the mix.?

That could be also.

Stopped listening to any sport radio years ago because simple math of time; none of these guys watch all these games nor could possibly be expert about all these sports. Or care. And really suspect most of it is an act; nobody could be passionate about every sport or team. You get older you have your business and your family, and unless you're a POS you start to drop things. I'm down to the Jets and the Rangers and that's about it. Yankees appear to be a well run team with some salt of the earth players like Judge, but I do not have 4 hours to allot to watching people step out while the pitcher and catcher exchange glances. The internet made that even more apparent that most of these guys are reading the paper and a few websites and making up the rest. There was a time reporters did know more than the public, but not the case any more. All their supposed "hot takes" is some producer telling them to pretend to be outraged about something they don't much care about in hopes it gets some Jerome from the Bronx riled enough to call in with his proposed trade of 3 pieces of nothing for another team's superstar. 

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