Mid-May Musings

[BettyBoop]

I'm old.  I've been a Jets/Titans fan for a long, long time.  And like virtually every Jets fan I've had my share of cockeyed optimism.  And I have had much of those hopes and dreams about this team shattered.  C'est la vie.  It's sports.  Still, I have a renewed optimism about this team along with a healthy dose of skepticism.  Here are my reasons for both.

Optimism

• We have a really good chance of finally having our franchise QB.  We went through the Mark Sanchize, Geno Smith, Chad Pennington and (fill in the blank) QB, but there is something different about this kid.  With all of the other guys there was always something in the back of my mind telling me he wasn't the guy.  Darnold just seems to have 'it'.  He's smart, athletic, aware and just plain likable.  There's hope.
• The defense has been collecting individual talent and pieces over the last few seasons.  Unlike most, I really like Leo and think he gets a bad rap.  And I think Jamal Adams is a great player and is a 'glue' guy.  He brings this defense together and gives them an identify.  Unfortunately, there wasn't much talent around him but I think that has changed.  I am thrilled we took Q and I believe he will be a game changer in middle of the defense.  He's smart, athletic and extremely likable.
• CJ Mosely was a great signing.  Swapping him out for Darren Lee is an improvement of monumental proportions.  Around these guys are solid, if not spectacular complimentary pieces.  Williamson, Henry Anderson (kudos to Mac for that trade) and Jenkins (if only all of our third round picks turned out this way) are very soild, as is Marcus Maye if he can stay healthy.
• Another key aspect of this team is youth.  Among the alpha-dawgs Le'Veon is 27 and the rest are between 21-26.  With Darnold, Adams, Q, Leo, Maye, Herndon, Crowder, Anderson and Enunwa all on the right side of 26, the window should remain open for several years.
• I really, really like the Wesco pick.  I think it's safe to say he is an addition to the OL (see skepticism below).  

Skepticism

• The biggest potential issue I see is chemistry.  Not between the players but among the coaching staff.  Will Gase and Williams co-exist?  That's the wild card (pun intended) here.  As for the rift between Gase and Mac, I think, or at least hope, that's the media trying to remain relevant between the draft and camp.  I'm surprised they haven't called for an independent investigation and asked for Mac's tax returns since he took office.
• While most are clamoring away for a better CB2 I am more concerned about CB1.  IF Trumaine returns to form, I think the CB2 issue is far less relevant.  IF Tru locks down one side of the field Williams can give CB2, whomever that is, enough help to keep the damage to a minimum.  If not, we can expect a lot of 42-41 final scores.
• This "concern" actually falls somewhere between optimism and skepticism.  I love the Polite pick and I'm hoping that his poor decisions leading up to the draft turn out to be the "20 pounds that saved the Jets season".  He has first round talent and falling to us in the third round may be the saving grace to finally provide us with a pass rush.  I watched every Florida game last year (notice I didn't say I watched the "tape".  Let's face it we posters don't watch tape, we watch CBS!) and this kid stood out.  And playing next to CJ and Williamson and behind Leo, Q and Anderson, I am optimistic.  If not, well, that's where the skepticism part comes in.
• As for the OL, I remain skeptical.  I think Winters has finally proven he is not the RG we need.  I really hope Mac has a trade up his leave so we don't go into the season with Harrison and Toth as the two guys.

Overall I am excited about this season.  I think this team will be fun to watch on both sides of the ball.  There will be hiccups and bad plays/games but the final product should be far better than last year's version.  I expect around eight wins but more importantly I think we will go into the 2020 offseason with just a few holes to fill and a plan to fill them.

[GreenFish]

Nice write up. Seems pretty fair on both sides. I'm pretty excited about the season as well. Cant wait for football to start. To your point, this has to be a stepping stone year. If we can manage at least 8 wins and have only 3-4 weak spots to address, that would be huge. If the team does well and Macc stays, I hope he goes all in ala Rams and how the Browns did this year. Years 3-5 of Darnold could be special. Let's hope. 

[T0mShane]

This is a good post, imo. If Gase, Bell, Crowder and Enunwa can prop Darnold up enough for him to continue developing, everything else will be secondary. The real foundational flaws with this roster will come next year and the year after, when the OL, Bell, receiving corps, etc look to be threadbare at the same time we have to pay Darnold and, maybe, Adams. They’ll be rebuilding, again, soon. 

[Dcat]

5 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

This is a good post, imo. If Gase, Bell, Crowder and Enunwa can prop Darnold up enough for him to continue developing, everything else will be secondary. The real foundational flaws with this roster will come next year and the year after, when the OL, Bell, receiving corps, etc look to be threadbare at the same time we have to pay Darnold and, maybe, Adams. They’ll be rebuilding, again, soon. 

Wut?  Darnold's 5th year will be 2022 (that's when he gets paid either by 5th yr option or new contract) and Adams 5th year is 2021.  The earliest of that is 3 seasons away.   So it's not next year and the year after unless you are referring to something else. 

[slats]

I generally agree, although I think the Mosley signing was probably the most questionable move of the entire offseason. If instead they made Paradis the highest paid center in the league, and let Hewitt battle Lee for the other ILB job, I'd've probably been happier. That said, I think they did a pretty good job this offseason. 

One of the guys I'm quietly really excited about is Herndon. He had a terrific rookie season as a fourth round pick, and if he makes a second year jump along with Darnold, the offense could be very good. 

I'm optimistic about the Polite and Wesco picks, too. Hoping they get a lot of playing time between them. 

[T0mShane]

2 minutes ago, Dcat said:

Wut?  Darnold's 5th year will be 2022 (that's when he gets paid either by 5th yr option or new contract) and Adams 5th year is 2021.  The earliest of that is 3 seasons away.   So it's not next year and the year after unless you are referring to something else. 

Poor wording by me. By “next year/year after” I meant you’re probably swapping out most of the OL, Bell, CBs, and possibly an edge guy with not a lot of youth behind them, so you’re looking at going the free agent route for big ticket guys with Darnold’s eventual contract looming. Like every team with a good, young QB, you’re racing their rookie contract to get to a Super Bowl, then you spend the rest of the time squeezing 52 other players in under the cap. 

[CTM]

17 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

This is a good post, imo. If Gase, Bell, Crowder and Enunwa can prop Darnold up enough for him to continue developing, everything else will be secondary. The real foundational flaws with this roster will come next year and the year after, when the OL, Bell, receiving corps, etc look to be threadbare at the same time we have to pay Darnold and, maybe, Adams. They’ll be rebuilding, again, soon. 

This looks to me to be designed for a 2020 / 2021 run which is frankly a sound strategy given a talent poor team and a qb drafted 1.3 in 2018.

The fact that the dope that created the talent poor roster is still running things is of course still an issue.

[T0mShane]

2 minutes ago, CTM said:

This looks to me to be designed for a 2020 / 2021 run which is frankly a sound strategy given a talent poor team and a qb drafted 1.3 in 2018.

The fact that the dope that created the talent poor roster is still running things is of course still an issue.

I thought it was interesting when Gase said yesterday they were trying to get a lot of things accomplished in a short period of time, which makes you think he’s aware the clock is ticking. They drafted like they think they only have a two year window, too. 

[TuscanyTile2]

26 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

This is a good post, imo. If Gase, Bell, Crowder and Enunwa can prop Darnold up enough for him to continue developing, everything else will be secondary. The real foundational flaws with this roster will come next year and the year after, when the OL, Bell, receiving corps, etc look to be threadbare at the same time we have to pay Darnold and, maybe, Adams. They’ll be rebuilding, again, soon. 

Ahem...

 

1 hour ago, BettyBoop said:

And I think Jamal Adams is a great player and is a 'glue' guy.  He brings this defense together and gives them an identify. 

 

[BrickTamland]

While I get that the rookie contract allows for the most big ticket items around the qb, it seems to me absolutely crazy to suggest that we have a 2 year window...

IF darnold is the man, then we have a 15 year window.

[CTM]

31 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

I thought it was interesting when Gase said yesterday they were trying to get a lot of things accomplished in a short period of time, which makes you think he’s aware the clock is ticking. They drafted like they think they only have a two year window, too. 

As you said, most, if not all  of Bell, Mosley, Crowder and Osemele will not be here in 3/4 years.  All should be high performers but are at the back end of their prime, and overpaid due to a QB making peanuts (yet designed to be cut with no cap hit when it's time to pay Darnold).

I'm think Mac sold and is attempting to execute a 2 year championship window to the johnson

[T0mShane]

5 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Ahem...

 

 

How come every time someone tries to write positive things about Jamal Adams they end up describing Eric Smith? 

[Jets0712]

When you hit on your franchise QB with a coach that can develop him and on same page. That (window) stays open a lot longer....


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

[Creepy Lurker]

9 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Ahem...

 

 

The truth comes out!

[varjet]

The data speaks for itself.  The vast majority of FQBs end up making the playoffs in year 2.  

Darnold will likely not make the playoffs this year, and it will not be his fault.  It is time for someone else to build this team.  

The team will need a OL and CBS next year.  The round 4-7 picks were terrible.  

[BROOKLYN JET]

4 minutes ago, Creepy Lurker said:

The truth comes out!

Look @joewilly12 @T0mShane has 8 nipples.

[varjet]

5 minutes ago, CTM said:

I'm think Mac sold and is attempting to execute a 2 year championship window to the johnson

Wild Card next year.  maybe second round. 

[CTM]

5 minutes ago, Jets0712 said:

When you hit on your franchise QB with a coach that can develop him and on same page. That (window) stays open a lot longer....


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

That's true however high end QB salaries are so roster building restrictive that only all time great level guys (Brady Manning Brees) seem to be able to consistently  overcome it.

[BettyBoop]

22 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

I thought it was interesting when Gase said yesterday they were trying to get a lot of things accomplished in a short period of time, which makes you think he’s aware the clock is ticking. They drafted like they think they only have a two year window, too. 

What???  They took the best player in the draft and drafted two areas of severe need in round 3.  The OL will be an area of need in 2020.  Even if Edoga works out they will need at least a new C and RG in 2020.  They will need one big WR but Enunwa, Crowder and Anderson will still be a decent core of receivers for awhile.  Add Herndon will make they even better.  We'll see about corners.  Jones will have a chance to prove himself and I think there's hope there.  And Poole is a big improvement over Skrine and is only 26.  

...trying to get a lot of things accomplished in a short period of time, which makes you think he’s aware the clock is ticking.  That's what every new coach says.  Did you want him to say he has plenty of time to work things out???  And given the pressure of every new coach (see Steve Wilks) to produce quickly, his coach speak was to be expected.

Just because they didn't sign/draft the players you preferred doesn't mean their motives or plan (i.e., timeframe) wasn't sound.

[jvill 51]

11 minutes ago, CTM said:

That's true however high end QB salaries are so roster building restrictive that only all time great level guys (Brady Manning Brees) seem to be able to consistently  overcome it.

And Brady hasn’t even really had to overcome it, considering he’s earning far less than market value. I don’t see Darnold being willing to take the same kind of deal if he turns into the QB we’re all hoping he will. The key will be signing him to a long term deal that will seem high for the first few years but won’t be nearly as restrictive later on as the cap continues to shoot up. Either way, it’s a problem we should all be praying for.

[T0mShane]

16 minutes ago, BettyBoop said:

What???  They took the best player in the draft and drafted two areas of severe need in round 3.  The OL will be an area of need in 2020.  Even if Edoga works out they will need at least a new C and RG in 2020.  They will need one big WR but Enunwa, Crowder and Anderson will still be a decent core of receivers for awhile.  Add Herndon will make they even better.  We'll see about corners.  Jones will have a chance to prove himself and I think there's hope there.  And Poole is a big improvement over Skrine and is only 26.  

...trying to get a lot of things accomplished in a short period of time, which makes you think he’s aware the clock is ticking.  That's what every new coach says.  Did you want him to say he has plenty of time to work things out???  And given the pressure of every new coach (see Steve Wilks) to produce quickly, his coach speak was to be expected.

Just because they didn't sign/draft the players you preferred doesn't mean their motives or plan (i.e., timeframe) wasn't sound.

I don’t follow.

[BettyBoop]

7 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

I don’t follow.

Neither do I.

[Jetster]

There are NOT GOING TO BE a lot of rookies starting on this team. Quinnen Williams (the man child) & Wesco will get more reps than any other rookies.

Wesco will get a crash course in Don't LET ANYONE TOUCH SAM from Frank Pollack. I expect to see a hard nosed group that takes to this coaching staff like Ducks to whistles. Every lazy guy that didn't give a hundred percent for sixty knows damn well when a new staff comes in it's time to earn your pay. 

This is gonna be a very focused group on offense because it's fun to score points and this offense knows damn well Jettisoning Bowles and bringing in G.Williams, Mosley, Poole, drafting Q and Polite, the defense can ball when they gel. I think with Sam in his second season, the offense WILL NOT want to be the reason they fail to make a run at the playoffs. I truly believe this Jet team will be much more competetive than many expect. And Sam Darnold is a CLOSER with BRASS BALLS.

[JoeWillieWhiteShoesHOF]

2 hours ago, slats said:

I generally agree, although I think the Mosley signing was probably the most questionable move of the entire offseason. If instead they made Paradis the highest paid center in the league, and let Hewitt battle Lee for the other ILB job, I'd've probably been happier. That said, I think they did a pretty good job this offseason. 

One of the guys I'm quietly really excited about is Herndon. He had a terrific rookie season as a fourth round pick, and if he makes a second year jump along with Darnold, the offense could be very good. 

I'm optimistic about the Polite and Wesco picks, too. Hoping they get a lot of playing time between them. 

The Offense WILL be very good.

You saw Darnold put up lots of points the last quarter of the season virtually all by himself.  Now he has a year under his belt, key additions starting with Bell in the backfield but most importantly the worst OC in the league is no longer his OC and the worst HC in the league (who handcuffed the worst OC) is no longer his HC.

Again, I’m being objective, this is a 10 win wild card team, and when the Offense puts up less than 30 points in a week, you’ll know it was a rare off week for Sam Darnold.

Adam Gase’s record with a healthy Ryan Tannehill: 11-0.

The Jet coaching staff can be middle of the pack or even somewhat lower and Darnold will take care of the rest.  No way will they be the worst in the league....Just Gregg Williams over Kacy Rogers means the Offense will see the ball way more.

[T0mShane]

21 minutes ago, JoeWillieWhiteShoesHOF said:

Again, I’m being objective

 

[JoeWillieWhiteShoesHOF]

32 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

 

Yeah but I detailed WHY they’re getting a Wildcard berth this year..so that supports my objectivity.

[Bugg]

4 hours ago, T0mShane said:

Poor wording by me. By “next year/year after” I meant you’re probably swapping out most of the OL, Bell, CBs, and possibly an edge guy with not a lot of youth behind them, so you’re looking at going the free agent route for big ticket guys with Darnold’s eventual contract looming. Like every team with a good, young QB, you’re racing their rookie contract to get to a Super Bowl, then you spend the rest of the time squeezing 52 other players in under the cap. 

The Cap means there is no more breaking in young players much past their entry level contracts. Which is no small reason Darren Lee is very soon not going to be  a Jet. Fully expect that if Maccagnan is still the GM Adams and Leo will be getting long term big money contracts, and Darnold right after that. And then you get into Bell's deal. The window to win is not nearly as big as you might think, unless you're superstar QB is willing to take an under market contract (which in NFL history is one guy). The cap means you have to go for it and pray it works out. Because right after that (exactly like Maccagnan's 2nd year) here you are going to be in hell. 

As an aside, 2 things; 1. wonder what they have promised Brady; long term club VP, stock in the team, to leave piles of cash on the table, or did he at all? 2. How f___ing out of touch dumb does Dave Gettleman sound saying out loud he thinks he can get away without playing Jones for 2 or 3 years with Barkley under contract; that is in -f___ing-sane. 

[T0mShane]

28 minutes ago, Bugg said:

The Cap means there is no more breaking in young players much past their entry level contracts. Which is no small reason Darren Lee is very soon not going to be  a Jet. Fully expect that if Maccagnan is still the GM Adams and Leo will be getting long term big money contracts, and Darnold right after that. And then you get into Bell's deal. The window to win is not nearly as big as you might think, unless you're superstar QB is willing to take an under market contract (which in NFL history is one guy). The cap means you have to go for it and pray it works out. Because right after that (exactly like Maccagnan's 2nd year) here you are going to be in hell. 

As an aside, 2 things; 1. wonder what they have promised Brady; long term club VP, stock in the team, to leave piles of cash on the table, or did he at all? 2. How f___ing out of touch dumb does Dave Gettleman sound saying out loud he thinks he can get away without playing Jones for 2 or 3 years with Barkley under contract; that is in -f___ing-sane. 

I’d pay money to see the receipts on Brady’s fugazj nutrition company contract with the Patriots. It shows you how deep the rot is in the NFL when the player’s union sits back and allows the marquee player in the league take less money to abet two decades of cheating in the sport. Imagine Mike Trout or Giannis Antetekuompphshsgo voluntarily taking the minimum in their sports to circumvent the salary cap to the benefit of the owners, but recouping that cash on the back end by “selling” them the recipe for an asparagus slushie. They’d be exiled from their respective players unions. 

 

As for Gettleman and the Giants, the best hope for the Giants is if Ezekiel Elliot blows his knee out and doesn’t get to a second massive contract, then the GM who comes in to clean up for Gettleman next year can tell Barkley to go pound sand. No one but Gettleman and Cutcliffe thinks Daniel Jones can play, and his pending failure should be enough to wake Mara out of his coma.

[Adoni Beast]

Good post by OP. I agree with most.

My musings:

- Loved our off season and didn’t expect fill every hole in 1 off season.

- Like that they didn’t just overpay guaranteed $ deals on Paradis or Morse who have serious injury concerns. Spend the $ and draft picks on people you really want. 

- Absolutely hate that Loggains has any input at all in Sam Darnold’s development. I don’t care that “its Gase’s offense.” I don’t get why you have this guy on your staff at all.

- Corners are a real concern. 

- OL not a concern but not a strength.

- WR’s one strained ligament away from being a concern.

- Gase will hopefully be the coach we all want him to be, which should net the team more wins than they’re projected. If not, its 7-9/8-8 kind of season.

[southparkcpa]

5 hours ago, T0mShane said:

I thought it was interesting when Gase said yesterday they were trying to get a lot of things accomplished in a short period of time, which makes you think he’s aware the clock is ticking. They drafted like they think they only have a two year window, too. 

I think we could be 10 and 6.   Even 11 and 5 with a few breaks.  

[GreenFish]

5 hours ago, slats said:

I generally agree, although I think the Mosley signing was probably the most questionable move of the entire offseason. If instead they made Paradis the highest paid center in the league, and let Hewitt battle Lee for the other ILB job, I'd've probably been happier. That said, I think they did a pretty good job this offseason. 

One of the guys I'm quietly really excited about is Herndon. He had a terrific rookie season as a fourth round pick, and if he makes a second year jump along with Darnold, the offense could be very good. 

I'm optimistic about the Polite and Wesco picks, too. Hoping they get a lot of playing time between them. 

If this season goes downhill, that's going to be the likely reason. Macc's allocation of resources has been questionable. Investing premium resources at S, LB, DT and only taking late to mid round shots at CB, Edge, OL and WR is head scratching. 

[MichaelScott]

6 hours ago, Dcat said:

Wut?  Darnold's 5th year will be 2022 (that's when he gets paid either by 5th yr option or new contract) and Adams 5th year is 2021.  The earliest of that is 3 seasons away.   So it's not next year and the year after unless you are referring to something else. 

Why let that get in the way of replying to some logical optimism with claiming we need to rebuild again 

[Jet Nut]

6 hours ago, T0mShane said:

I thought it was interesting when Gase said yesterday they were trying to get a lot of things accomplished in a short period of time, which makes you think he’s aware the clock is ticking. They drafted like they think they only have a two year window, too. 

There isn't a NFL team anywhere that runs off a two year window.  

Especially without knowing what the new CBA will look like.  

 

[BettyBoop]

56 minutes ago, MichaelScott said:

Why let that get in the way of replying to some logical optimism with claiming we need to rebuild again 

Exactly.  What's particularly interesting (illogical) is the prediction that we will need to rebuild in two years when all of Mac's 2019 free agent signings are 27 or younger.  Bell (27), Crowder (25), Poole (26) are all young and the guy we didn't sign but Mac haters insist we should have made Paradis (29) the highest paid center in the league.  And he is coming off injuries.  Interesting indeed.

I admitted to bouts of unabashed optimism in my original post but I HATED the choice of Idzik from the moment he was signed.  He was dreadful and the fact that he was chosen by a headhunter, an accountant and a lawyer made it obvious from the start.  My point is I don't just find all good in what the Jets do and ignore the rest.  But I think we're on the right track and believe in the plan.

[BCJet]

I clearly remember being very optimistic about the Donnie Henderson defense after the reports of "how aggressive the Jets defense will be".

The first Jets-Pats game with Rex when we beat them at home was the best home crowd Ive ever seen and I thought we were set at HC forever.

I honestly thought that Bates and Dennsion would be a good combination of offensive coaching talent/scheme.

My  point is there has been an endless supply of reasons for Jets optimism, only to have us routinely disappointed.  

The reason this is different is that its not just the coach.  We have a QB who is on a different level then almost any QB to come into the league since Andrew Luck and in my opinion Sam has better instincts to the position then Luck did/does. That doesn't mean he can put it all together like Luck has but the unteachable skills are clearly there for him and he is a NYJ.

We have also been saddled with one of the worst coaches in NFL history.  Bowles is a perfectly nice guy but he doesnt understand simple math, nor is he a disciplinarian, nor is he a great scheme guy.  We now have a guy who may not seem perfect but won't accept less then max effort and has an excellent schematic background.

Cant wait for opening day!