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BettyBoop

Expectations

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The merry-go-round of the last six weeks has stopped and it's time to assess where we are and what are the most realistic expectations for 2019 and beyond.

Joe Douglas is in place and I think, or at least hope, he is our George Young.  Young took over the Giants after their own Butt Fumble, a meddling owner and near total disfunction.  His Giants weren't immediate winners but Douglas has significantly more talent to start with than Young did.  

Areas of Need/Focus

The franchise QB is in place.  Whew!  There are very talented targets for Darnold to work with and if Gase is the offensive genius he says he is, he should be able to make it work without additional pieces added in 2019.  I, for one, am not sold on the offensive line starters.  Forget the backups!  Osemele is a huge bonus.  Beachum is average on a good day.  Winters needs to be replaced but could function as an adequate backup.  Shell, if healthy, can be a good starter at RT.  Center is a total crapshoot.  Gase and team are talking Harrison up big time but it's just talk for now.  The only way to really solidify the position is via trade but we'll talk about that later.  Chuma Edoga is a wildcard.  If he can replace Beachum next year, that's a big score.

On defense, I think the team is about as solid up the middle as any defense in the league.  I'm expecting big things from Q and a rejuvenated Leo.  With CJ Moseley, Williamson, Adams and Maye behind them, the run defense should thrive.  That said, I expect teams to throw the ball 40-55 times per game.  Douglas simply cannot go to battle this year with Trumaine and Roberts as CB1 and CB2.  It's that simple.  As I've indicated in another post, I would gladly give up a fourth round pick for Trae Waynes.  I think Derrick Jones has potential and should be given a chance but he's too much of an unknown at this point.

Transactionsa

Douglas already knows how bad the cornerbacks are and has started picking up camp bodies.  He knows he needs to do more.  A lot more.  Expect a trade (or two) here.  I don't envision him giving up more than a third because he needs to score big on his first draft (2020).  But if Waynes can be had for a fourth, he should pull the trigger.  Darius Slay would be a better pick up but he would cost too much in both picks and cap space.  It's unlikely he could wrangle a starting center from another team without overpaying.  The more logical solution is to give Harrison a shot at starting and signing an older backup with experience.  Exactly who that might be remains to be seen but it's likely going to be an end of camp cut from another team.

I expect Douglas to look for another receiver or two to complement the corps he has.  Josh Bellamy and Deonte Thompson may not be on the opening day roster after camp cuts.  If Gase could use Dorch in some trickeration schemes he may stick.  I would use McGuire and Cannon as much as possible in the pre-season to see if any team would be willing to give up a late round pick for either of them.  As much as I love Bilal Powell, he would have to be significantly better than McGuire to make the team, based on age alone.  If McGuire is cut another team would sign him relatively quickly.

Conclusion

If Douglas can fix the sieve at corner and with good coaching and some luck (i.e., minimal injuries), this team is capable of winning 8-9 games.  More importantly, the team would be heading into 2020 with just a handful of holes to be addressed before they can take the next jump.

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Growth out of Darnold is all that matters.  There's no win total I'm looking for, though of course strong play out of Darnold will naturally play out in producing wins.

Gase is the HC of a team built by a GM he didn't want and who very clearly sucked at his job, and Joe Douglas is just getting settled in, with very little he can do to improve our chances in '19.  So if we go 6-10 or 7-9 and Darnold plays well (like, say, a Top 16 QB), I won't be disappointed. 

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2 minutes ago, Warfish said:

I expect .500 and would say we (fans) should accept no less.

We're materially better at almost every spot of weakness, we have a roster as talented as any other .500-type team, we have a new Coach our fans think is a genius QB whisperer, we have a better D-Co, we added a stud RB, an All-Pro LB, a "best in draft class" DT and a (according to some fans) potentially elite Edge guy.

We're weak at CB, presuming our very well paid #1 CB doesn't bounce back.  And our O-line isn't the greatest, despite two potentially solid improvements from Oakland and the draft. 

We should expect .500 in this modern made-for-mediocrity league.

It's funny, we have so many fans loudly proclaiming how great every move is, then when asked about expectations they suddenly back right off and start making mealy mouthed excuses for why shucks, this year will be so hard, and we can't expect much, and no talent still, and etc, etc, etc, on the way to declaring a 5 win season a "success" for Gase.....

.500 or we failed, period.  IMO, of course. 

So if we aren’t .500 what are the consequences? 

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11 minutes ago, BettyBoop said:

The merry-go-round of the last six weeks has stopped and it's time to assess where we are and what are the most realistic expectations for 2019 and beyond.

Joe Douglas is in place and I think, or at least hope, he is our George Young.  Young took over the Giants after their own Butt Fumble, a meddling owner and near total disfunction.  His Giants weren't immediate winners but Douglas has significantly more talent to start with than Young did.  

Areas of Need/Focus

The franchise QB is in place.  Whew!  There are very talented targets for Darnold to work with and if Gase is the offensive genius he says he is, he should be able to make it work without additional pieces added in 2019.  I, for one, am not sold on the offensive line starters.  Forget the backups!  Osemele is a huge bonus.  Beachum is average on a good day.  Winters needs to be replaced but could function as an adequate backup.  Shell, if healthy, can be a good starter at RT.  Center is a total crapshoot.  Gase and team are talking Harrison up big time but it's just talk for now.  The only way to really solidify the position is via trade but we'll talk about that later.  Chuma Edoga is a wildcard.  If he can replace Beachum next year, that's a big score.

On defense, I think the team is about as solid up the middle as any defense in the league.  I'm expecting big things from Q and a rejuvenated Leo.  With CJ Moseley, Williamson, Adams and Maye behind them, the run defense should thrive.  That said, I expect teams to throw the ball 40-55 times per game.  Douglas simply cannot go to battle this year with Trumaine and Roberts as CB1 and CB2.  It's that simple.  As I've indicated in another post, I would gladly give up a fourth round pick for Trae Waynes.  I think Derrick Jones has potential and should be given a chance but he's too much of an unknown at this point.

Transactionsa

Douglas already knows how bad the cornerbacks are and has started picking up camp bodies.  He knows he needs to do more.  A lot more.  Expect a trade (or two) here.  I don't envision him giving up more than a third because he needs to score big on his first draft (2020).  But if Waynes can be had for a fourth, he should pull the trigger.  Darius Slay would be a better pick up but he would cost too much in both picks and cap space.  It's unlikely he could wrangle a starting center from another team without overpaying.  The more logical solution is to give Harrison a shot at starting and signing an older backup with experience.  Exactly who that might be remains to be seen but it's likely going to be an end of camp cut from another team.

I expect Douglas to look for another receiver or two to complement the corps he has.  Josh Bellamy and Deonte Thompson may not be on the opening day roster after camp cuts.  If Gase could use Dorch in some trickeration schemes he may stick.  I would use McGuire and Cannon as much as possible in the pre-season to see if any team would be willing to give up a late round pick for either of them.  As much as I love Bilal Powell, he would have to be significantly better than McGuire to make the team, based on age alone.  If McGuire is cut another team would sign him relatively quickly.

Conclusion

If Douglas can fix the sieve at corner and with good coaching and some luck (i.e., minimal injuries), this team is capable of winning 8-9 games.  More importantly, the team would be heading into 2020 with just a handful of holes to be addressed before they can take the next jump.

Amazing that Macc did not realize how important a smart good center is to a young QB.  Apparently (if it is not lip service) Harrison has the mental aspects down and has impressed there.  The physical part comes in a month.  I  think Douglas will sniff someone out who can at least back up adequately.  Corner is the key.  I believe our offense will move the ball.  I believe our D can give mediocre teams (and young QBs) problems.  If Douglas fishes a decent corner out of the drink at this late date I will be amazed.  I am also interested in seeing what kind of injury depth we wind up with.

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5 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Growth out of Darnold is all that matters. 

This.

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I expect our GM to make a couple moves with the teams he's worked in the past to address our glaring weaknesses. 

He'll get a corner from Philly (they have a bunch), he'll get an OL from the Ravens or Bears.

 

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18 minutes ago, nico002 said:

So if we aren’t .500 what are the consequences? 

That's up to the Owner.  

Fan expectations =/= organization consequences.

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I expect at least 9 wins. If we're below .500 that means something is seriously wrong. Either Darnold isn't progressing or he's been just OK and the defense can't keep up. Which is both bad for the future. 

I can't imagine Darnold taking a major leap and the team still being under .500. 

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20 minutes ago, nico002 said:

So if we aren’t .500 what are the consequences? 

Nothing really. But also depends why they ended up there. Could be a variety of reasons.

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28 minutes ago, Warfish said:

It's funny, we have so many fans loudly proclaiming how great every move is, then when asked about expectations they suddenly back right off and start making mealy mouthed excuses for why shucks, this year will be so hard, and we can't expect much, and no talent still, and etc, etc, etc, on the way to declaring a 5 win season a "success" for Gase.....

Who are these people?  Seems like almost all are expecting better than .500 here.  

And I havent seen anyone who has said 5 wins are enough and would be a "success for Gase".  

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No expectations at all as the current jet regime have a two year free pass due to letting mac run the ship this past off season.  At least that will be the narrative.

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I expect to be in, and win the SB by Sam's 5th year. I don't care about the day to day I just want a SB no matter how we get there. I've waited this long, build a solid team and get that F- ing trophy.

 

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10 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

No expectations at all as the current jet regime have a two year free pass due to letting mac run the ship this past off season.  At least that will be the narrative.

Right. So you have no expectations, but seem to be implying a no confidence vote that you then state will be somebody else's narrative. Yeah, that works. 

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if we don’t get 8 wins or more this year the only excuse I will take is injury. And the only injury that would hurt us that bad would be (knock on wood) Darnold going down for a long stretch. I think we have enough talent to over come other spots but not  the QB. Hell I still think we can get to 8-8 with bell and the running game with a game manager QB but I wouldn’t get my hopes up though.

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1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Growth out of Darnold is all that matters.  There's no win total I'm looking for, though of course strong play out of Darnold will naturally play out in producing wins.

Gase is the HC of a team built by a GM he didn't want and who very clearly sucked at his job, and Joe Douglas is just getting settled in, with very little he can do to improve our chances in '19.  So if we go 6-10 or 7-9 and Darnold plays well (like, say, a Top 16 QB), I won't be disappointed. 

If Darnold is healthy and playing well and the team wins less than 8 games, then they've had some serious breakdowns from high priced free agents and/or high draft picks and/or coaching, and something is seriously wrong. 

I agree it's all about Sam. Sam breaking out like recent high mark second year QBs should result in, like what he promised, a lot of wins. 

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What do I expect? 8-8 with Darnold playing like a top 16 QB.

What would make me happy? Darnold playing like a top 16 QB with spots of brilliance.

If Darnold sh*ts the fan, we can win 10 games and lose in the playoffs and I’ll call it a failure. The only way we win a super bowl is if Darnold steps up. 

But im a Jets fan, I’ll find something to complain about regardless. 

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K Osemele is a huge addition if you’re playing a man on man power blocking scheme .   Not so much if your teams blocking scheme is zone. ( just isn’t a fit- doesn’t understand the concept as all he wants to do is destroy the man in front of him. When all he has to do is hook him.

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2 things I want to see this year: Darnold playing like he did in December and progressing through the season; and I want to see some meaningful football in December.  We probably should be about a .500 team -- couple of breaks go our way, and maybe we can sneak into the playoffs and have some January football to watch for a change.

 

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2 hours ago, Long Island Leprechaun said:

Right. So you have no expectations, but seem to be implying a no confidence vote that you then state will be somebody else's narrative. Yeah, that works. 

I have high expectations for this team.  If things do not go well a host of people will come out of the wood work stating what I said above as excuse #1.

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My predictions/expectations for 2019-

8-8 if OL is below average.  Teams that can pressure Darnold while covering the short routes will beat the Jets.

On defense, teams that can block the Jets interior pressure will beat the LBs and CBs like a drum.

9-7 or 10-6 if the OL plays better than expected.

For 2020, I expect the second round of the playoffs. 

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.500 is the minimum expectation.  Even with a below average Center, weak CB2 (and potentially CB1), I'm with @Warfish when he says, "we should expect .500 in this modern made-for-mediocrity league."  In fact, I'd probably feel a slight bit of disappointment with .500.  I'd hope than in a division with a weak Miami team, a rebuilding Buffalo team (similar to the Jets with offseason upgrades this year), and an older and weaker New England team (no Gronk) the Jets could find a way to go 4-2.  They would then just need to go 5-5 against everyone else to get to 9-7.

In fact, you can point to 3 or 4 games last year that were very winnable and the Jets just couldn't close out or find a way to seize.  GB, Miami, Titans, Browns, etc. were all winnable games and this team could have had 6 or 7 wins last year.  I don't think it's a big jump to say 9 wins is a fair expectation.

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I expect the team to win games. If they don’t win games, I will not be satisfied and will likely voice concerns and skepticism. Is that reasonable? 

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35 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

I have high expectations for this team.  If things do not go well a host of people will come out of the wood work stating what I said above as excuse #1.

I too have high expectations. However, there are too many variables involved to predict how the season could implode or why. Some would be excuses and some would be legitimate reasons. I do think if the Jets stay reasonably healthy at key positions, they will be quite competitive and certainly should do better than .500.

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8-8/9-7, which is a real shame given the talent on this team.

Our secondary will be our back breaker all year. Teams will spread us out and score quickly. High hopes for Polite, but our lack of EDGE will only exacerbate our corner issues.

Our OL while not as bad as our secondary will stall a lot of drives, and limit our ability to chew up clock with a lead.

Unless some trades, or key waiver/cut players are picked up, our ceiling is around.500.

 

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36 minutes ago, varjet said:

My predictions/expectations for 2019-

8-8 if OL is below average.  Teams that can pressure Darnold while covering the short routes will beat the Jets.

On defense, teams that can block the Jets interior pressure will beat the LBs and CBs like a drum.

9-7 or 10-6 if the OL plays better than expected.

For 2020, I expect the second round of the playoffs. 

With the right free agency and draft for 2020 , I’d expect a Super Bowl.

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I just want our coaches and players to be somewhat competent at their jobs.

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Being a Jet Fan as long as I have been I find it's better to have no expectations going into a season. If pressed I would say 8-8 would be about what I expect. That and Sam progressing are the main things. Everything else is gravy.

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imo, 10 wins+.  last season it could be argued they were an 8 win team.  one of the big problems besides qb is that bowles knew he was a goner and just couldn't seem to get the team to play above expectations.  this team has done well for their new coaches ever since parcells.  parcells first season was 9-7, grohs first season was also 9-7, herms was 10-6, mangini's was 10-6, rex's was 9-7, bowles was 10-6.  these are all improvements on the previous seasons (although grohs could actually be argued to be a decrease).  and as much as mac has been maligned over the past few years he actually did pretty well in free agency and this season's draft.  sure the team could still use some blue chip players at a couple of positions but it's not like a whole unit is terrible.  and it looks like the defense is going to be a lot less passive than it was under bowles/rogers.  get a better turnover ratio and this team is capable of 10+ wins easy.

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Without reading a single thing 

My expectations are having a HC that understands controlling the game on offense, and how to use the clock to your advantage to make sure you are the one in position to win the game on that last possession.

Also this only is achievable with a top QB, which I expect Sam to become so another expectation.

Almost every teams season is decided on how they do in those 1 score games, the Jets need to become one of those teams that knows how to get that done from the HC to the QB.

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Now after reading 

I want the Jets to be good enough so I can sell my tickets on the aftermarket to pay for my BMW 3 Series!

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