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Hopeful article about Darnold

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27 minutes ago, Peace Frog said:

I think the opposite is true. 

You cannot have a high completion percentage if you are inaccurate but a very young very accurate QB throwing to crap receivers with a crap line certainly can have a poor completion percentage. 

Case in point, Sam Darnold. No one is saying he doesn’t need work but the accuracy is clearly evident. The video basically said it. Inaccurate guys don’t make some of the throws he made last year or at USC. 

Accuracy is about consistency.  Single great throws do not make you accurate.  Being consistently accurate makes you accurate.

Darnold is not an accurate QB yet.  He certainly can work hard and grow into one.  

But trying to paint the least accurate QB in the NFL last year as somehow being elite in accuracy because he made a few great throws is a bit of a stretch.

There is no reason to fluff the kid.  He has  a ton of work and development still to come to be what we want, an elite QB.  He is not that yet, he's still just a high quality prospect.  Lets not get ahead of ourselves here.

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2 hours ago, Peace Frog said:

Lol ok Captain Literal.

Yes, how dare we be literal when discussing literal things like literal metrics to measure literal accuracy.....

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Btw, I’ll get ahead of myself as much as I want.

Go right ahead.

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I get it, you’re not a fan.

I'm getting tired of JN Posters who think they get to decide who is or isn't a fan of this team and it's players....

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He’s extremely accurate.

He was 31st in the NFL in Completion % in 2018 at 57.7%, below the NFL's "Mendoza Line" of 60%.

Only Josh Allen and Josh Rosen were worse. 

That is simply not "extremely accurate".  

Again, that isn't to say he cannot work hard and improve his accuracy to be materially more consistent, which will be required if he is to be an elite NFL QB, but he was not "extremely accurate" in 2018.  

I just don;t get the homer desire for 1984-esque Newspeak when it comes to guys they like.  He's a young QB who needs to develop, there is NOTHING WRONG with him not being "extremely accurate" yet.  We don't need to redefine what words and metrics mean or engage in extreme hyperbole to be in lockstep with some Party LIne on Darnold. 

Yes, he occasionally makes very accurate throws.  Elite throws even.   No, he is not overall extremely accurate...yet.

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But yeah, throwing to the crap receivers he was throwing to last year is evidence that he’s not accurate. 

We'll see this year, with Anderson, Crowder, Enunwa, Herndon and especially Bell, there should be no "blame the other guys" excuse to be made.  

 

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1 hour ago, Grandy said:

huh?

Someone previous to me said it, I took it at face value.  

In fact, he wasn't the least accurate.  He was 31st, as noted in the post above.

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2 hours ago, Savage69 said:

Fish doesn't believe in what he considers false hope until the player proves it on the field.. Nothing wrong with that except I think if Fish won a 500 million lottery he would complain about the taxes..:curse:

Lol, no.  :rl:

And if Darnold is at 68% completion % next year, I won't complain about that either.  68%+ is extremely accurate. :-k

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53 minutes ago, 14 in Green said:

...and yet you’re getting drawn into a “discussion” with the self appointed judge of who is or isn’t a Jets fan. Don’t waste your time.

Simply not agreeing with his point of view leads to his “accusations” about your level of fandom (lol) and comments about what a miserable person you are. 🤔 He seems unable to discuss anything in a civil tone. Always stoops to nasty snark.

By my count, you’re the 3rd person to call him out on it this week, including the owner of the site.

But yet he keeps on keeping on. Oblivious to how he comes off.

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Long overdue tbh.  :-k

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11 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

Really. 

Not what ex players say.

Not why Manning says.

Cutler.

just throw it out there that he should have let the injured Tannehill throw it all over the place.

And listen to the same old whining by Fidelio.  Every thread, every day, all day.  Don't have anything to say, call those who don't agree or who understand the game the "Gase police". Lol, so cute.  Then imagine and throw out as fact that having an injured QB for the majority of his 1 out of 3 stops is blaming his "failures" on everyone else.  

Amazing

Every time I read one of your posts on the topic of Gase, I start hearing you singing this song in the back of my head.....

Thankfully, in just a few months, we will all be able to evaluate Gase and his performance for ourselves, on our team, with a very talented offense led by a great young developing QB prospect and one of if not the best RB in the NFL.

We won't have to argue over if Gase's past.  We'll all have Gase's present to think about instead. 

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4 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

So me, Manning , Cutler, Tannehill, Tebow, pretty much anyone who talks about Gase and offensive mind leads you to this PGabrial song?

i cant begin to tell you what think about when you talk QBs.  Darnold weak armed QB, lol, whos arm you compared to Chads.

Thats just a start and thankfully in your eyes only.  Funny you have no problem lecturing real live fans for watching or wanting watch pressers by players, our new HC and GM. 

From the respone, In You Eyes only.  So back off sparky

 

 

It's even better when the video is literally in your post, so I can play it while reading your......yeah, lol.

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2 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

Go ahead, is this somehow funny? 

 

It is to me, and that's really all that matters tbqh.  

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11 hours ago, Grandy said:

Sam has more than elite accuracy potential.

What is "more than elite"?

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2 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

Think it's more about where th ball is delivered, the duress it's delivered under and not the childlike reliance on completion percentage which is kind of meaningless to anyone who understands the game.  

Which means you are screwed

So an incomplete well delivered ball > a completed pass on a slightly lesser well-thrown ball.

Got it.

And using completion percentage as a metric for accuracy is "meaningless and childlike". 

Silly facts like stats are for losers anyway, right?  Got it.

I wonder if we should invent some new words to better describe Darnold's far-beyond-elite'ness when it comes to his superhuman accuracy.... 

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53 minutes ago, Savage69 said:

Anyone that has followed your posts here or on JI know you have always had a contrarian opinion on things.. For a example if I go fishing on a boat I look forward to catching fish and having a fun day on the water. You on the other hand may think you could get sun burnt, not catch a thing the boat could sink and you could get eaten by a shark.. No right or wrong just different strokes for different folks..:cheers:

Except not a single word of that is true, and I'd wager I do a hell of alot more fishing then you, old friend.  I'm often pessimistic about the Jets, rightfully so given their history and results.  I've also been optimistic just as often, but people tend to ignore or forget those posts.  Human nature, I suppose. 

The problem here at JN (as it was at JI) is people think posts here represent the entirely of a human being.  It most certainly doesn't.  While I have written more than my fair share of words about the Jets over the years, not one of you know me as a person.  You know only my opinions on the Jets, a tiny fraction of who I am.  

 

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52 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

Yes, if you're discussing accuracy.  

Your view.  Darnold throws 15 well delivered passes to a WR.  Hits him in his hands, in stride, perfect ball.  All 15 are dropped by the WR, comp. % = 0.00, Darnold is the leagues worst, most innacurate passer. 

15 ducks, thrown all over the place, not one well delievered ball, WR makes 15 crazy, diving, lunging catches, comp % in this case is 100% and somehow you think hes now more accurate.  Easy as it gets to read stats

So yes, comp percentages on their own are "meaningless and childish".  Simplistic beyond belief and proof that yes some stats on their own are silly.  

100% true.

 

Then it would seem a reasonable, logical counterpoint would be to cite NFL drop pass stats showing that Darnold's pass-catchers had somewhere near the most-dropped passes in the NFL last year.  I would certainly accept that as a valid counter-argument in regards to accuracy discussion.

Do you have a source to support any such claim, that Jets WR dropped alot of passes last year compared to the rest of the league?

Also, just to be clear, what you posted was pure hyperbole.  Fantasy even.  We're talking about Pro QB's, not people throwing "15 perfectly delivered balls, all dropped" or "15 ducks, all caught by great WR's".  

Lets stick with facts, shall we?  If drops played a material part in Darnold's 31st ranked completion percentage, then the drop stats should show that out.

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15 minutes ago, Savage69 said:

Fish I was kidding you..B)

No worried Sav, gave me an opportunity to say something I've felt like saying for a while now, tbh.

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1 hour ago, slats said:

Is it a better result in a game? No. Is it a better reflection of a QB's accuracy? Yes. 

Not sure I would agree with that universally.

Throwing a materially less likely to be completed pass vs. throwing a more likely completed pass is part of a QB's judgement.  Fans may hate it, but throwing some bullet into triple coverage 30 yards out with a very low chance of being caught is not, IMO, smarter than throwing to the guy in the flat for 5 yards who might need to fight to get that 6th yard for the first down.  It's all about probabilities.    

1 hour ago, slats said:

When you get all bogged down in stats that's when you find yourself thinking that Ryan Fitzpatrick is a good QB or Kirk Cousins is a great one.

Bait, I'm sure, and I don't intend to rise to it.  My views of Fitz and Cousins and yours do not align, and it's been well trod at this point.  

1 hour ago, slats said:

Fitz looks good throwing to Braylon, Decker, or Mike Evans, while Darnold looked good throwing to Robbie Anderson and Deontay Burnett. 

Well, we have Anderson, Enunwa, Crowder, Bell, Herndon and more in 2019.  I don't think we ca argue we lack talent overall, even if we don't have a pure #1 WR really.  We have three legit #2's and a #1 in our RB.

We're all looking forward to see how Darnold develops, and as I said to start, I see no reason Darnold cannot work hard and materially improve him completion percentage in 2019 and beyond.

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1 hour ago, Jet Nut said:

Nice spin.

What spin?  You claimed drops was the cause of his low comp. %, I asked for the numbers that prove it.  Seems pretty straightforward.

1 hour ago, Jet Nut said:

My whole point was to show why comp percentage is a totally useless way to judge accuracy.

Except it's not.  But to repeat, you're entitled to your opinions.

1 hour ago, Jet Nut said:

I'm done.... 

I wish.....

1 hour ago, Jet Nut said:

Amazing that anyone would argue that comp. Perc. On its own denotes accuracy. 

No one said "on it's own".  It's the best and most well-known metric that measures accuracy.  Not the only metric.  

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37 minutes ago, slats said:

We’re talking about accurate, catchable passes here.

The Comp % + Drop Stats would be a pretty good metric for that. 

Clearly that doesn't fit the "Darnold has better than elite level accuracy" narrative some prefer, so now Comp. % os a meaningless, childish stat apparently.....

37 minutes ago, slats said:

Darnold can fit the ball into small windows; a necessary trait for QBs hoping to reach the next level.

I agree 100%.  He can absolutely make those throws.

He just doesn't do it often enough (yet).

He can make elite throws.  He is not elite accurate (yet).

37 minutes ago, slats said:

Those are championship throws. The scenario you’re talking about might be dumb in the middle of the second quarter, but a critically needed throw with two minutes left in the game. I don’t have a huge problem with my QB making those throws anytime, though, because that’s gonna give him the experience and confidence to make that throw when he has to. And there are times when he will. 

Elite QB's have 65% comp. ratio or better.  60% is the Mendoza-line of the NFL.

No matter how we spin it, every QB faces the same decisions, and has the same (or similar) issues of drops and saves.

That is why comp % is a generally accepted base metric for how accurate a QB is......or was, till now.  

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12 hours ago, slats said:

Comp% can be very system orientated, or favor the risk-averse QB, and as such I've never been a huge fan of depending on that number. YPA is my preferred stand alone stat

I agree, there is value in that stat, although I wouldn't use it as a judge of accuracy (which is what we've been talking about).

12 hours ago, slats said:

and Darnold's 58% comp and 6.9 ypa for the youngest rookie QB to start an NFL season in 50 years seems pretty reasonable to me.

I don't think anyone has said otherwise.  The question on the table I've been debating was "Does Darnold posses better-than-elite accuracy".

12 hours ago, slats said:

My biggest concern about Sam was the turnovers, particularly the fumbles, and he wound up fumbling less than any other rookie last year. Probably less than the majority of starting QBs, but I don't feel like looking it up.

+1, that was also my largest concern with him as well.  I feel he did pretty well on that for a rookie.  The INT numbers should/need to decrease in year 2, but I wasn't unhappy with his performance in 2018 on that point.

12 hours ago, slats said:

Sam has a jump to make, no doubt about it, but I feel very good about how he wrapped up last year.

Agreed.

12 hours ago, slats said:

I want my QB to be able to make dangerous throws, and take those chances. That's gonna result in some incompletions and interceptions, but I'm willing to accept that if he's got a high TD% and ypa to go with it. I prefer my QB be more Brett Favre than Alex Smith. You seem to prefer the safer guys. I don't think those guys win championships. 

Yes and No.  I want our QB to make the right choice in each situation for the situation.  I do not want a Pennington, nor do I want a Favre per se.  There is a time to be risk-averse and a time to gunsling.  These situations tend to balance themselves out for NFL QB's over the course of a 16 game season, which is why I do believe completion % is a good metric for overall accuracy (especially when combined with drop stats, a good point made earlier).  Defending a sub-60% rate with "well, he takes risks and I like that" is not an argument I'd support as clearly the risks being taken are not succeeding often enough.  

With that said, as you and I (I believe) agree, Darnold has much room for improvement in his 2nd year and it will be VERY exciting to see him play in 2019 and see what steps up he's taken.

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13 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

You don't even know how to argue sparky. 

If you say so. 

How about I do us both a favor then:

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You've chosen to ignore content by Jet Nut. Options 

Goodbye Nut.  Dealing with your mostly incoherent and inconsistent yet always aggressive and angry ranting and raving is just too tiring for me these days.  While trolling you if occasionally fun, it's not that fun.

Enjoy the season.

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And JN is already lookin' better! :yahoo:

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You've chosen to ignore content by Jet Nut. Options 
You've chosen to ignore content by Peace Frog. Options 

Let me guess, lots of angry whining and E-manhood-chest-puffery because I won't waste my time engaging with a troll and a nutcase anymore.

Guys, let me fill you in on a little something...I don't judge my life based on how much time I waste with you two chuckleheads on a daily basis.

You've both called me dumb, fine.  Me ignoring your posts should make you both happy, as it's very much going to make me happy. 

It's a win/win really.  

P.S. Completion percentage is still a good metric for QB accuracy.  Bye! \\:D/

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