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Hopeful article about Darnold

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15 hours ago, 14 in Green said:

More to the point, you should forget about why Mayfield was picked first, and be more concerned about Darnold proving he deserved to be taken ahead of Josh Allen. There was very little to separate between those two last year. Despite all the  feel good projecting around here.

Darnold had a 5% better comp%, threw more TDs than ints (unlike Josh), with both better TD and int percentages, while throwing for 50 more yards/game. Allen has a longer way to go as a passer. 

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2 hours ago, Warfish said:

So an incomplete well delivered ball > a completed pass on a slightly lesser well-thrown ball.

Got it.

 

Is it a better result in a game? No. Is it a better reflection of a QB's accuracy? Yes. 

When you get all bogged down in stats that's when you find yourself thinking that Ryan Fitzpatrick is a good QB or Kirk Cousins is a great one. Fitz looks good throwing to Braylon, Decker, or Mike Evans, while Darnold looked good throwing to Robbie Anderson and Deontay Burnett. 

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4 hours ago, Warfish said:

Not sure I would agree with that universally.

Throwing a materially less likely to be completed pass vs. throwing a more likely completed pass is part of a QB's judgement.  Fans may hate it, but throwing some bullet into triple coverage 30 yards out with a very low chance of being caught is not, IMO, smarter than throwing to the guy in the flat for 5 yards who might need to fight to get that 6th yard for the first down.  It's all about probabilities. 

No one, anywhere, is talking about throwing a pass that’s not likely to be completed vs. one that is. We’re talking about accurate, catchable passes here. Darnold can fit the ball into small windows; a necessary trait for QBs hoping to reach the next level. Those are championship throws. The scenario you’re talking about might be dumb in the middle of the second quarter, but a critically needed throw with two minutes left in the game. I don’t have a huge problem with my QB making those throws anytime, though, because that’s gonna give him the experience and confidence to make that throw when he has to. And there are times when he will. 

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2 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Elite QB's have 65% comp. ratio or better.  60% is the Mendoza-line of the NFL.

No matter how we spin it, every QB faces the same decisions, and has the same (or similar) issues of drops and saves.

That is why comp % is a generally accepted base metric for how accurate a QB is......or was, till now.  

Comp% can be very system orientated, or favor the risk-averse QB, and as such I've never been a huge fan of depending on that number. YPA is my preferred stand alone stat, and Darnold's 58% comp and 6.9 ypa for the youngest rookie QB to start an NFL season in 50 years seems pretty reasonable to me. My biggest concern about Sam was the turnovers, particularly the fumbles, and he wound up fumbling less than any other rookie last year. Probably less than the majority of starting QBs, but I don't feel like looking it up. 

Sam has a jump to make, no doubt about it, but I feel very good about how he wrapped up last year. I want my QB to be able to make dangerous throws, and take those chances. That's gonna result in some incompletions and interceptions, but I'm willing to accept that if he's got a high TD% and ypa to go with it. I prefer my QB be more Brett Favre than Alex Smith. You seem to prefer the safer guys. I don't think those guys win championships. 

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