Training Camp Tweets (7/31)

[Ruby2]

I kinda view kickers like middle relievers in baseball. Outside of a few elite ones they all seem to greatly vary year to year in their effectiveness.

I totally understand not wanting to commit premo money to one, and try to find cheaper options which always seem to come up.

Let us not forget Myers was cut at one point before he got to us....

[Jetsfan80]

4 minutes ago, slats said:

One of these analytics heavy teams is going to start doing this, have success, and then it will become the norm. 

Teams should also be going for it on fourth down a lot more. 

Do those two things, and your kicker is a lot less critical. 

Coaches get scared to do this stuff.  Go for it on 4th down in a crucial situation and fail, and everyone second guesses the coach.  Remember when Belichick did that on 4th & 2 against the Colts to try to keep the ball away from Peyton, and fell short by a yard to cost them the game?  A lesser coach might have gotten fired over something like that.  Even though in that case, the decision to go for it was smart, but the play-call was not. 

[Patriot Killa]

52 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

We are in a division with Tom Brady, who throws the ball with incredible placement in the middle of the field. If huge-money Mosley, Williamson, and sixth overall pick Jamal Adams can't slow down Ty Montgomery and Jamison Crowder now, then they stand no chance against Brady unless we're sacking him, and we're not going to sack him because we spend money on ILB's and top picks on strong safeties.  

 

My chest hurts.

[Jetsfan80]

10 minutes ago, Ruby2 said:

I hear you. It's a very fine line. I want a solid guy, but dont want to pay him because I dont think the value one presents over another is that substantial, especially with how the league is trending in my opinon. 

 

10 minutes ago, Ruby2 said:

Thank you, this is what I am trying to convey.

 

The NFL is slow to react to this stuff because of the human factor.  If over 50 % of the time when a team goes for 2 or goes for it on 4th down, they succeed, then it makes sense to go for 2 or go for it on 4th down (within reason) EVERY time.  But teams don't do that because coaches are afraid of getting criticized if it fails.  The criticism for failure is a lot heavier than the praise a coach gets for succeeding in those situations.  The second-guessing by the media and fans is silly in most of these instances, but it is there. 

It would take an established coach to start doing this to move the needle.  Mike Tomlin did this in Pittsburgh for part of 1 season because their Kicker was terrible (he went for 2 every time for several weeks), but it was short-lived. 

[NYs Stepchild]

1 hour ago, Beerfish said:

I don't condemn the jets for not signing myers.  I sure as hell will condemn them for not getting a reasonable replacement.  Putting all of your eggs in the canazarro basket is fool hardy.

How worried were you last year before we signed Myers on Aug 21? 

How pumped were you after?

[ljr]

Obviously as the games move into the 3rd and 4th quarters there will be plenty of times that the 1 point will keep us up 1 point or tied, regarding how many td’s & fg’s that we are winning by or losing by.

 

In-game management ... but if those are not impacted i’m cool with “go for 2”

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

 

[slats]

3 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Coaches get scared to do this stuff.  Go for it on 4th down in a crucial situation and fail, and everyone second guesses the coach.  Remember when Belichick did that on 4th & 2 against the Colts to try to keep the ball away from Peyton, and fell short by a yard to cost them the game?  A lesser coach might have gotten fired over something like that.  Even though in that case, the decision to go for it was smart, but the play-call was not. 

Teams with good QBs have success going for it on fourth down. The Chargers were 7/8 on fourth down, the saints 13/16, KC 12/15, Seattle 11/14. The outlier were the Cheats, who were only 50% at 7/14. If your team is capable of making 4th downs at a 65+% clip, you should be going for it a lot more often and going for two every time. 

I agree that coaches generally get scared and play not to lose, but we see those trends changing, too. The guys getting the praise nowadays are the guys who put their foot on the gas and don't let up. 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/downs/sort/fourthDownConvPct

[Jetsfan80]

3 minutes ago, slats said:

Teams with good QBs have success going for it on fourth down. The Chargers were 7/8 on fourth down, the saints 13/16, KC 12/15, Seattle 11/14. The outlier were the Cheats, who were only 50% at 7/14. If your team is capable of making 4th downs at a 65+% clip, you should be going for it a lot more often and going for two every time. 

I agree that coaches generally get scared and play not to lose, but we see those trends changing, too. The guys getting the praise nowadays are the guys who put their foot on the gas and don't let up. 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/downs/sort/fourthDownConvPct

 

Makes sense.  If you have a good QB teams have to respect both the pass and the run on 4th and short, thus opening up your playbook a bit.  When teams don't respect your QB it comes down to crashing a fullback into the line when teams KNOW you're gonna run it.  Not good. 

[Drums]

7 minutes ago, slats said:

Teams with good QBs have success going for it on fourth down. The Chargers were 7/8 on fourth down, the saints 13/16, KC 12/15, Seattle 11/14. The outlier were the Cheats, who were only 50% at 7/14. If your team is capable of making 4th downs at a 65+% clip, you should be going for it a lot more often and going for two every time. 

I agree that coaches generally get scared and play not to lose, but we see those trends changing, too. The guys getting the praise nowadays are the guys who put their foot on the gas and don't let up. 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/downs/sort/fourthDownConvPct

That's interesting. I wonder what the average down and distance was on those attempts because that is a driving factor in conversion rate. I would guess most of them were 4th and inches or 4th and 1, but damn some of them went for it a lot.

[nycdan]

8 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

Makes sense.  If you have a good QB teams have to respect both the pass and the run on 4th and short, thus opening up your playbook a bit.  When teams don't respect your QB it comes down to crashing a fullback into the line when teams KNOW you're gonna run it.  Not good. 

This is where guys like Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray will give teams a slight edge over pocket passers.  I could live with Sam rolling out on a 4th and 1 play.  A lot of ways to make that work.

[nico002]

Darnold led the NFL in 20+ yard TDs last year- but yea he can’t throw deep

[Beerfish]

17 minutes ago, NYs Stepchild said:

How worried were you last year before we signed Myers on Aug 21? 

How pumped were you after?

Myers looked good from day one and i was worried.  This guy is missing half his damn kicks.  in practice.  This is a fire alarm going off.

[WayneChrebet80]

3 minutes ago, nico002 said:

Darnold led the NFL in 20+ yard TDs last year- but yea he can’t throw deep

He’s not the best at that 50 yard tear drop throw. 

[Beerfish]

kicker never seems like a prioroty until you find yourself auditioning guys mid season because your guy has cost you a couple games.

Hey Cody McDoink Parkey must be available!

[Lith]

 

[Patriot Killa]

6 minutes ago, Lith said:

 

pls

[Losmeister]

2 hours ago, #27TheDominator said:

sucked in 2017.  He sucked at the end of 2018.  How dare we not pay  him!!!!!

FWIW, I am not a big Catanzaro fan either, but his career stats are very similar to Myers, but he is probably almost 5% better on extra points. 

BINGO

[UntouchableCrew]

1 hour ago, T0mShane said:

When you read about guys like Crowder and Montgomery having great days catching the ball in camp, it's really an indictment of our defense in the middle of the field being meh. Crowder and Montgomery are decent players, but they're here dominating our expensive ILBs and safeties.  

Good thing the middle of our defense is where we've allocated all of our resources on defense.

[Sarge4Tide]

Tight End for the Jets is like the drummer for Spinal Tap

[jetstream23]

1 hour ago, T0mShane said:

We are in a division with Tom Brady, who throws the ball with incredible placement in the middle of the field. If huge-money Mosley, Williamson, and sixth overall pick Jamal Adams can't slow down Ty Montgomery and Jamison Crowder now, then they stand no chance against Brady unless we're sacking him, and we're not going to sack him because we spend money on ILB's and top picks on strong safeties.  

 

You should really be running a football team somewhere.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

...like in outer space!

 

[NYs Stepchild]

2 hours ago, Beerfish said:

Myers looked good from day one and i was worried.  This guy is missing half his damn kicks.  in practice.  This is a fire alarm going off.

August 21. There will be 32 kickers to choose from. 

[#27TheDominator]

2 hours ago, T0mShane said:

I'm repeating phrases a lot from sentence to sentence. Dementia is setting in.

@T0mShane taking names and setting fires!

[Losmeister]

1 hour ago, T0mShane said:

When you read about guys like Crowder and Montgomery having great days catching the ball in camp, it's really an indictment of our defense in the middle of the field being meh. Crowder and Montgomery are decent players, but they're here dominating our expensive ILBs and safeties.  

or...  the offense is designed well enough and the QB is fast reading the d and getting the ball out accurately so that it almost sorta doesnt matter who the hell they are playing...   a la Brady

[HelenOfTroy]

Good article.

https://www.ganggreennation.com/2019/7/29/8934796/how-did-sam-darnolds-route-distribution-change-post-injury

“Here’s another tidbit that further compounds the decrease in underneath reliance shown by Darnold down the stretch. Over his final four games, Darnold saw an incredibly low 34% of his passing yards generated after the catch. Ideally, you would like to see that number around the league average 50% mark that Darnold posted pre-injury (Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes had 52% of their yards after the catch last season). However, it’s good to know that Darnold’s quality late-season production was largely his own doing. He didn’t post better numbers because he lucked into a bunch of dump-offs going 50 yards — he put up those numbers with his arm alone.”

[#27TheDominator]

2 hours ago, nycdan said:

Factor in that XPs moved way back recently so comparing last year to career averages isn't really apples to apples.

Factor away. They moved them back in 2015.  That was Myers first year.  He has hit them at 87.6%.  Catanzaro started in 2014 and was 27 for 27.  Take those away and he drops from 92.9% all the way down to 91.7%.  Apples to apples, Myers sucks on extra points.  There is a reason the kid was cut in October 2017 and August 2018.  There is also a reason not to match 4/$15M contracts for him. 

[WayneChrebet80]

5 minutes ago, HelenOfTroy said:

Good article.

https://www.ganggreennation.com/2019/7/29/8934796/how-did-sam-darnolds-route-distribution-change-post-injury

“Here’s another tidbit that further compounds the decrease in underneath reliance shown by Darnold down the stretch. Over his final four games, Darnold saw an incredibly low 34% of his passing yards generated after the catch. Ideally, you would like to see that number around the league average 50% mark that Darnold posted pre-injury (Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes had 52% of their yards after the catch last season). However, it’s good to know that Darnold’s quality late-season production was largely his own doing. He didn’t post better numbers because he lucked into a bunch of dump-offs going 50 yards — he put up those numbers with his arm alone.”

That’s because Brady and Mahomes got the ball out on time to the right guys. Darnold vacated the pocket too quickly leaving him more difficult throws. 

[Losmeister]

thanks for covering the obvious pts about 4th downs, FG kicker and going for 2...

those crying about myers please send a telegraph to your grampa

 

[flgreen]

1 hour ago, Barry McCockinner said:

I don't know if this is the way the league is trending but if you can get over 50% of two point conversions it would make sense to go for 2 every time, especially if you can get significantly above 50%.

For what it's worth

Impact of New Extra Point Rules & NFL Success Rate on 2-Point Attempts

by Jimmy Boyd in NFL

Everyone loves an exciting game. Just imagine the excitement if most teams went for two on every touchdown instead of kicking an almost-automatic-extra-point.

Which is why I love that the NFL has moved the distance back for extra points this season.  Hopefully, it will encourage more teams to go for the 2-point conversion.  However, we will have to see how this effects the key numbers to see if games land on 7, 10, or even 14 quite as often and how the NFL spreads might change accordingly.

Get Jimmy's Premium Service FREE with his 100% sportsbook match offer!

2-Point Conversions: How New Extra Point Rules Impact Going for Two

So far the changes appear to be working.  During the 2015 season, extra points are being made only 95.2% of the time.  This is in stark contrast to the 99.5% of the extra points that were made over the previous five seasons.

Instead of having to find success 49.75% of the time on 2-point attempts like in years past, coaches now only have to convert 47.6% of their 2-point attempts to make it the proper choice.

The 2-point conversion has been around for quite some time in college football but is only a recent addition to the NFL, beginning in 1994. Many people looked at this as a great thing, it had the potential to change how games were played. That wasn’t the case. In the years 2000-2014 only 997 2-point conversions were attempted. But why?

Pro Football Success Rate When Attempting a Two-Point Conversion

In the years mentioned the success rate was 48.2%. This would have made the two-point attmepts have a negative expected value, and the smart choice would have been to kick it.

Now, however, the smart play might be to attempt the two-point conversion.  The expected points from a kick would be 1-point * 95.2%: .952.  The expected points from going for two would be 2-points * 48.2%: .964.

Play	Success Rate	Attempts
Pass	43.4%	739
Run	61.7%	258
Overall	48.2%	997

Why NFL Teams Should Start Taking More Shots on 2-Point Conversions

NFL teams should start attempting to go for  2 more often. The problem doesn’t lie with the performance of the team or the confidence of the coach in his players, the problem lies with job security.

The NFL is a league that prides itself on winning and time-honored traditions. Any coach who did something this drastic would instantly be subjected to scrutiny. Any mistake would be blown out of proportion and his job would be on the hot seat. This is the same reason more coaches don’t go for it on 4th down and short.

So how does this information help us? We can take what we learn here, and other areas, and use them in our NFL handicapping models. By looking at 2-point conversions, trick plays, 4th down tendencies etc. we can begin to develop tendencies about teams and coaches. It also shows us which coaches pay attention to the numbers and put their teams in the best position to win. Everything counts when your money is on the game and greatness is in the details. We have to use every available resource to come out ahead.

 

[nycdan]

Catanzaro was 0-3 from 40-49 last season and 3-3 from 50+.  That's just plain weird.

[rammagen]

2 hours ago, flgreen said:

He actually didn't clash that much with the players in Miami.  Think there were 3 vocal guys who didn't like his in your face style.  Led by Ajaki who I think is out of football right now.  Most of the players liked him

that is not true there were several more players including vets that did not like him. it was more the three players including vets that would surprise you

https://www.thephinsider.com/2018/12/31/18162804/former-miami-dolphins-players-taking-shots-at-adam-gase-firing-head-coach-nfl-fired-twitter

[HelenOfTroy]

6 minutes ago, WayneChrebet80 said:

That’s because Brady and Mahomes got the ball out on time to the right guys. Darnold vacated the pocket too quickly leaving him more difficult throws. 

 

[thebuzzardman]

3 hours ago, Lith said:

 

 

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, WayneChrebet80 said:

He’s not the best at that 50 yard tear drop throw. 

Yes because we all know that's a very common pass. 

[Warfish]

1 hour ago, #27TheDominator said:

I don't think there is a right or wrong.  They didn't pay an inconsistent kicker.  I am fine with that.  I am not a Catanzaro fan, but he is an NFL kicker.  He's not my favorite, but I only threw that out there because any post that admit letting Myers walk might not be a mistake tends to lead the JN herd mentality to label people "fanboys" of whoever they end up with. 

Like I said, if Myers has another great year, and our kciker doesn't, that is the evaluation criteria for this decision.  If we lose games because of our kicker, that's the evaluation criteria.  

1 hour ago, #27TheDominator said:

My main point is that Catanzaro (or whoever they end up with ) + $2M > Myers.  It is not just one vs. the other. 

Explain why when the $2M is currently sitting unspent.  Was it your personal $2M?  Or do you value unspent cap space so much that you're ok with a worse player because he's cheaper for Woody to pay?  The saving is irrelevant to anyone other than Woody.  We don't get a bonus win for saving that $2M, but we certainly might lose games because we didn't spent it.

[Barry McCockinner]

8 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Yes because we all know that's a very common pass. 

Also, Darnold was 4th in the league in average air yards per attempt and 7th in average air yards completed.

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#average-completed-yards