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Seriously, PFF needs to rethink this Sam Darnold preseason grade

Villain The Foe

By Villain The Foe
in NY Jets Forum

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WayneChrebet80
WayneChrebet80

Darnold probably isn’t the answer. I hope I’m wrong, but as mentioned Dave Gettleman would have drafted him if he was any good. 

Mo Lew
Mo Lew

Rating players that play one drive is ridiculous.  We got the right guy. Screw the nonsense.

The Crusher
The Crusher

Ok. Thanks for playing. 

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Jet9

Jet9

Posted
Posted
51 minutes ago, jvill 51 said:

There’s definitely some truth to this, but I think the trouble with PFF is that it’s not actually analytics even if it promotes itself as such. Analytics are supposed to take the the subjectivity out of the equation and just give you the straight, indisputable numbers. PFF has someone go through every play and assign their own grade, making the process inherently subjective and opinion based. That the grading system spits out a number from 0-100 doesn’t change this.

Thank you. They are selling people sh*t they already know OR want to hear. 

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Joe W. Namath

Joe W. Namath

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, Mogglez said:

Might seriously leave for a while because of this ******nozzle.

How could you let someone get you so upset?  The poster doesnt think darnold will be good.  Thats his opinion.  

Why would that make you so angry?  If darnold plays well this year he will change this posters mind.

Its bizarre that some of you get so crazed by posters, beat writers, radio personalities when they express negative opinions on the jets.  

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HelenOfTroy

HelenOfTroy

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Joe W. Namath said:

How could you let someone get you so upset?  The poster doesnt think darnold will be good.  Thats his opinion.  

Why would that make you so angry?  If darnold plays well this year he will change this posters mind.

Its bizarre that some of you get so crazed by posters, beat writers, radio personalities when they express negative opinions on the jets.  

Maybe stupidity upsets him.....if you’re going to troll, do it in a manner that is entertaining and smart....like Villain.  ?

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CTM

CTM

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, kdels62 said:

There is a problem is football analytics that just hasn’t been resolved yet because they’re current formula is good enough. 

Baseball works because there is simply a bunch of scores worth 1 point. It’s easy to find the efficiency. Football has a clock and that’s just not taken into account properly. Theoretically, the most efficient score in football is a long bomb, and therefore scoring a long bomb every drive is the most efficient a QB can be. However, you’re more likely to win if you manage 2 30-minute long drives, one in the first half and one in the second half It’s less efficient for stat padding and analytics but better for winning. 

So basically, Darnold completed 4 passes that traveled 20 yards in the air on top of his dropped INT and he gets penalized for it.

Most of this stuff tries to account for what most increases the likelihood of winning. DVOA's entire system is predicated on getting first downs, for instance. Where it gets complicated is trying to systematically isolate an individual's performance out of all the factors involved in a play succeeding or failing.  We've had this conversation on dropped INTs before, it correctly predicated Sanchez would be an interception machine many moons ago despite people refusing to accept what the data was saying.

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Mogglez

Mogglez

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Joe W. Namath said:

How could you let someone get you so upset?  The poster doesnt think darnold will be good.  Thats his opinion.  

Why would that make you so angry?  If darnold plays well this year he will change this posters mind.

Its bizarre that some of you get so crazed by posters, beat writers, radio personalities when they express negative opinions on the jets.  

He's a Giant fan who's been trolling the board for the last few months and it's been beyond obvious to anyone with half a brain.

I don't care if an actual Jet fan has a negative opinion on anything so long as the basis is sound and the poster isn't personally attacking others for disagreeing.  I care that every single day for the last couple of months he's been allowed to derail threads and rile up the forum for sh*ts and giggles.

Well deserved banning.  Hopefully it's permanent.

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Legend Killa7

Legend Killa7

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Mogglez said:

He's a Giant fan who's been trolling the board for the last few months and it's been beyond obvious to anyone with half a brain.

I don't care if an actual Jet fan has a negative opinion.  I care that every single day for the last couple of months he's been allowed to derail threads and rile up the forum for sh*ts and giggles.

Well deserved banning.  Hopefully it's permanent.

he's really banned?  that is too funny.  they should just make him change his name.  his comments are good for a 2 second chuckle, but he is a disservice to the name.  I understand Chrebet grew up a giants fan, but it's like me going on the giants board as SaquonBarkley26....

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14 in Green

14 in Green

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, HelenOfTroy said:

Maybe stupidity upsets him.....if you’re going to troll, do it in a manner that is entertaining and smart....like Villain.  ?

When it’s done well, it goes over the head of 90% of the board, lol. The thing that always amuses me is how easy it is for a person like WC, who doesn’t do it well, to rile  so many people up.

He posts a comment that is obviously meant to tick people off, and just like clockwork, 50 or more people take the bait and chime in trying to dispute what never was a serious argument, or to berate him as a troll. It’s not a one time thing either. He can do it over and over. Finally it reaches the point where, because people here don’t have enough restraint to ignore him, the mods have to step in.

The board rejoices, the troll has been banned! The mods have saved the people here from themselves.... until next time.

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jvill 51

jvill 51

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, CTM said:

Most of this stuff tries to account for what most increases the likelihood of winning. DVOA's entire system is predicated on getting first downs, for instance. Where it gets complicated is trying to systematically isolate an individual's performance out of all the factors involved in a play succeeding or failing.  We've had this conversation on dropped INTs before, it correctly predicated Sanchez would be an interception machine many moons ago despite people refusing to accept what the data was saying.

The difference between DVOA and PFF is that we actually know how DVOA is calculated and what the statistic is telling us.

If you can’t replicate the statistic it’s not really a statistic at all, it’s an opinion, and it’s predictive value is only as good as the guy reviewing the tape.

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Bleedin Green

Bleedin Green

Posted
Posted

I am no defender of PFF's grading system, but as a general rule there is no means of evaluation that will ever hold up perfectly when working with such a small sample size.  For this example, while we could argue about how likely it would/wouldn't be for that Darnold pass to be picked off, the reality is that none of us would be comfortable if those accounted for 20% of his throws over the course of the year, as was technically the case last week.  Outliers have far too much impact on such small data sets, whether that's a long TD throw from some random 5th stringer, or a single bad pass by a future HOFer, neither is going to mean much to their overall play for the season or beyond.

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Matt39

Matt39

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, CTM said:

Most of this stuff tries to account for what most increases the likelihood of winning. DVOA's entire system is predicated on getting first downs, for instance. Where it gets complicated is trying to systematically isolate an individual's performance out of all the factors involved in a play succeeding or failing.  We've had this conversation on dropped INTs before, it correctly predicated Sanchez would be an interception machine many moons ago despite people refusing to accept what the data was saying.

Sam had a much better rookie season than Sanchez, but the worry is we already have a large portion of the fanbase who's irritated by any mention of Darnold struggling as a rookie. Dude has some serious stans already.

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CTM

CTM

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

Sam had a much better rookie season than Sanchez, but the worry is we already have a large portion of the fanbase who's irritated by any mention of Darnold struggling as a rookie. Dude has some serious stans already.

Yes and Yes.

However the dropped INT debates raged after the 2010 season, when Mark had a + TD/INT but lead the league in dropped INTS

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BroadwayRay

BroadwayRay

Posted
Posted

Who cares what their secret-sauce ratings system says about one series. PFF has transformed itself into a big marketing operation where they splatter their ratings all over social media with fancy graphics on an hourly basis, and this silly, stupid, meaningless rating of one set of downs in the season's first preseason game just underscores that. I'm sure PFF is making money with their sales efforts, but it's sad that everyone is so consumed by a completely subjective ratings systems whose mechanics are essentially kep secret. 

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bitonti

bitonti

Posted
Posted

PFF's ratings suck almost as bad as that meatball Darnold threw the other night that Giants CB didn't catch

it's like a toss up which was worse

keep in mind how Darnold's rookie season started. He's not exactly known for ball security. We are all remembering that one month he got hot at the end. The rest of the year he wasn't exactly careful with the football. 

 

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Augustiniak

Augustiniak

Posted
Posted
Just now, bitonti said:

PFF's ratings suck almost as bad as that meatball Darnold threw the other night that Giants CB didn't catch

it's like a toss up which was worse

keep in mind how Darnold's rookie season started. He's not exactly known for ball security. We are all remembering that one month he got hot at the end. The rest of the year he wasn't exactly careful with the football. 

 

the pff grade aside, i thought that throw/read was predetermined, before the snap, just to run that particular play, almost a practice throw.

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bitonti

bitonti

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

the pff grade aside, i thought that throw/read was predetermined, before the snap, just to run that particular play, almost a practice throw.

even if all that is true there has to be some awareness of how badly he's staring down the receiver, not seeing the zone - i.e. a really bad practice throw 

he would have done better Daniel Jones'ing it into the 3rd row 

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DetDawg

DetDawg

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

Pff grades are very accurate but not very useful when covering a very small sample size.

I think that's the nub of the issue.  One in five of Darnold's throw's was interception worthy.  Over a full season, that kind of a percentage (20%) will result in a low QB rating, and deservedly do.  Over one game, I don't think it's worth getting overly upset about.

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