We’ve (nj.com) watched the Jets’ starters for a month. Let’s just say the playoffs are a long shot

[Jetsfan80]

CC:  @Pac

 

https://www.nj.com/jets/2019/08/training-camp-is-over-weve-watched-the-jets-starters-for-a-month-lets-just-say-the-playoffs-are-a-long-shot-updated-winloss-prediction-for-2019.html

 

Training camp is over. We’ve watched the Jets’ starters for a month. Let’s just say the playoffs are a long shot | Updated win/loss prediction for 2019

By Matt Stypulkoski | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com

The Jets’ 2019 roster is coming into focus.

There are still a few more days until the 53-man roster deadline, so nothing is finalized quite yet. But we’ve seen the last of this team’s starters until Week 1; this week’s preseason finale against the Eagles will be dedicated to backups and reserves, as usual.

That’s OK, though; we already have a clear sense of this team’s starting lineup and most of its key depth pieces. Sure, there will be some tweaks around the margins that could have some small impacts. Perhaps a bigger surprise move or two lie ahead as well.

But, by now, head coach Adam Gase’s team is more or less intact.

So now that we have a better idea of this team’s strengths and weaknesses – plus the pros and cons of each team they’ll face this season - how will the Jets fare this fall? Will they make a big improvement over last year’s 4-12 record? Is there a chance they make the playoffs? Or do they have too many fatal flaws to make the leap and finally play some winning football again?

Let’s just say we have our concerns.

Without further adieu, here’s our updated game-by-game win/loss projection for the Jets this season:

WEEK 1 VS. BILLS (Sept. 8, 1 p.m., CBS)

Stypulkoski says: The Bills and Jets are setting up for years of interesting rivalry battles. The Sam Darnold-Josh Allen dynamic should provide entertainment well into the future. But for right now, at least, Darnold is leading the race between those two second-year QBs. He has a far better supporting cast, too. The Bills upgraded their wide receiver room this offseason, which could turn into a problem for the Jets’ suspect cornerback group, but the offense should put up enough points to overcome it.

Result: Win

WEEK 2 VS. BROWNS (Sept. 16, Monday, 8:15 p.m., ESPN)

Stypulkoski says: This will be the first game where the Jets’ pathetic cornerback corps comes back to bite them. There’s absolutely no chance that Trumaine Johnson and Darryl Roberts will be able to shut down Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham. On the bright side for the Jets, they avoid running Kareem Hunt here. But quarterback Baker Mayfield still has more than enough weapons to make the Jets pay. This one has shootout written all over it.

Result: Loss

WEEK 3 AT PATRIOTS (Sept. 22, 1 p.m., CBS)

Stypulkoski says: Winning at home is one thing, but winning in Foxborough is another. The Jets haven’t pulled it off since the 2010-11 playoffs. That streak won’t be easy to snap. Especially when Brady can sit back and pick out open receivers all day long. The Jets’ only hope is that defensive coordinator Gregg Williams can gin up enough pressure to make Brady uncomfortable. But he’s smart enough to see through Williams’ disguises and adjust for the blitzes.

Result: Loss

WEEK 5 AT EAGLES — AFTER WEEK 4 BYE (Oct. 6, 1 p.m., CBS)

Stypulkoski says: The Jets’ early bye week will give them a chance to regroup after a tricky start – but things don’t get any easier after the break. Carson Wentz and Co. are basically what the Jets are striving to become – a perennial contender built around a young, talented quarterback. But the Eagles are also two years ahead of the Jets in that project. They have a strong offensive line that should be able to repel the Jets’ pressure. Wentz has the weapons to pick on a weak secondary. And the Eagles are deep enough at cornerback to make things tough on the Jets’ mediocre wideout group. Basically, Jets GM Joe Douglas will be reminded of what a winner looks like – and how much work he has to do in Florham Park – during this matchup.

Result: Loss

WEEK 6 VS. COWBOYS (Oct. 13, 4:25 p.m., CBS)

Stypulkoski says: Ezekiel Elliott has to be on the field by this point, right? Assuming he is, that makes life all the more difficult on the Jets, who have issues in the middle of their defense after losing linebacker Avery Williamson to a torn ACL. The combination of Elliott, quarterback Dak Prescott and wide receiver Amari Cooper is deeply problematic. The Jets’ best hope here is that they can turn this game into a shootout and win a race to 40-plus points. The desperation of trying to avoid a 1-4 start will kick in here and get them over the hump.

Result: Win

WEEK 7 VS. PATRIOTS (Oct. 21, Monday, 8:15 p.m., ESPN)

Stypulkoski says: Sorry, but it’s just really difficult to see the Jets knocking off this Patriots team, which is arguably the most talented one of the past few years. Is it possible? Sure. Especially at home on a Monday night, with a chance to get back to .500. But once again, Brady’s ability to exploit a defense’s weaknesses will be the Jets’ downfall. They simply have too many holes that the wily old quarterback can exploit. The second they plug one, he’ll start attacking the others.

Result: Loss

WEEK 8 AT JAGUARS (Oct. 27, 1 p.m, CBS)

Stypulkoski says: There’s little doubt that adding Nick Foles made the Jaguars better, but did it actually make them good? Their defense remains a major question mark; that unit totally imploded last season. The Jets’ ability to run a pretty balanced offense, thanks to the addition of Le’Veon Bell, should make that weakness much easier to exploit. Any team with a mediocre defense is going to have its hands full against Gase’s unit. The Jaguars are no exception.

Result: Win

WEEK 9 AT DOLPHINS (Nov. 3, 1 p.m., CBS)

Stypulkoski says: The Jets had better win this one. Road games in the division are never easy, but the Dolphins are short of talent and are an off-the-field mess, too. The Jets have to get their first win in Miami since 2015 here – these are the kinds of games that competitive teams take advantage of. Gase will be fired up for this one and break out some extra tricks against his old team, too.

Result: Win

WEEK 10 VS. GIANTS (Nov. 10, 1 p.m., Fox)

Stypulkoski says: Will this be the first-ever Darnold vs. Daniel Jones matchup? The way the Giants rookie quarterback is trending, he could be in the lineup by this point. But the odds of him keeping pace with the Jets’ offense, which will have a field day against the Giants’ depleted defense, sure seems low. And odds are that Eli Manning wouldn’t far much better. Even with some rookies stepping up, losing Olivier Vernon and Landon Collins is going to bit the Giants a few times this season. This will be one of those times.

Result: Win

WEEK 11 AT WASHINGTON (Nov. 17, 1 p.m., CBS)

Stypulkoski says: How will the Jets handle their first winning streak of the Gase era? On paper, this should be a cakewalk. The Redskins have arguably the worst wide receiver group in the league, which will help alleviate the pressure on the Jets’ corners for one week. It sure doesn’t look like they’ll have Trent Williams at left tackle, either, which will make it easier for the Jets to bring pressure. Plus, the Redskins could have rookie Dwayne Haskins under center by this point. All of that adds up to a shaky, shaky offense. But that also makes this the perfect trap game. The Jets are finally rolling, but make the mistake of looking past a trip down I-95.

Result: Loss

WEEK 12 VS. RAIDERS (Nov. 24, 1 p.m., CBS)

Stypulkoski says: The Raiders were just as bad as the Jets last season, but may have made an even bigger splash this offseason. They managed to overhaul both their offense and defense this spring, thanks to some big trades, signings and three first-round picks. The Jets, as mentioned, have really only overhauled their offense.

Result: Loss

WEEK 13 AT BENGALS (Dec. 1, 1 p.m., CBS)

 

Stypulkoski says: The Bengals went 6-10 last season, then made no real waves this offseason, so they look destined for mediocrity again this season. Andy Dalton is fine, but not enough to carry this pedestrian roster. The only tricky part of this for the Jets is getting the job done on the road. But after falling asleep at the wheel against Washington two weeks prior, the Jets are alert to that danger here.

Result: Win

WEEK 14 VS. DOLPHINS (Dec. 8, 1 p.m., CBS)

Stypulkoski says: Again, these are the games that good teams must win. Can the Jets clear that basic building block here? On paper, Gase’s first home game against his old team probably won’t look all that exciting, with the Dolphins likely carrying an ugly record into the Meadowlands. But that will only heap pressure on the Jets to get the job done, as they try to remain relevant down the stretch.

Result: Win

WEEK 15 AT RAVENS (Dec. 12, 8:20 p.m., Fox/NFL Network)

Stypulkoski says: Sure, the Ravens’ defense took a big hit when linebacker C.J. Mosley joined the Jets. Losing safety Eric Weddle hurts, too. But Earl Thomas will help replace Weddle and should keep the Ravens’ defense among the better ones in the league, even if they slip from last year’s elite level. And their offense should only improve with quarterback Lamar Jackson entering his second year alongside a pair of new running backs in Mark Ingram and Justice Hills and two newly drafted wide receivers, too. All those weapons will be difficult for the Jets to slow down, especially on the road in a game that could have big playoff implications.

Result: Loss

WEEK 16 VS. STEELERS (Dec. 22, 1 p.m., CBS)

Stypulkoski says: This is the payback game for Bell, so expect a big performance. The fact that Ben Roethlisberger no longer has two of his best weapons – Bell and wide receiver Antonio Brown – should be helpful for Williams, too. But the Week 15 loss could leave the Jets eliminated from playoff contention and feeling deflated. If the Steelers are still relevant, they can exploit that letdown.

Result: Loss

WEEK 17 AT BILLS (Dec. 29, 1 p.m., CBS)

Stypulkoski says: We gave the Jets the benefit of the doubt in a relatively even matchup at home, but that same premise works against them here. Allen’s upgraded weapons come in handy and the Bills make sure to stay neck-and-neck with the Jets in their (likely) fight for second place in the AFC East. Gase will have his hands full getting his players excited for a late December game in Buffalo with nothing on the line.

Result: Loss

FINAL RECORD?

Stypulkoski says: 7-9

Analysis: Earlier this year, this prediction was reversed. But after watching the Jets throughout training camp and the preseason, 7-9 has started looking far more likely than 9-7.

Gase’s offense has a chance to be pretty good. The combination of different weapons and their ability to play with tempo should keep opposing defenses off balance. But unless Douglas and/or Williams pull some rabbits out of their hats, this defense is going to have some huge problems. If all goes right, the unit has the potential to be mediocre. If it doesn’t, it could be horrible. Cornerback in particular will be a nightmare for this team, especially if Johnson or Roberts go down injured at any point. But we don’t trust the pass rush yet, either. Even if Williams is able to gin up pressure by bringing the house, it’s going to leave the Jets vulnerable to huge plays if the opposing quarterback gets the ball out quickly. Losing Williamson hurts, too. Before that, the Jets’ run defense at least looked solid. Now that’s something of a question mark, too.

So, if the Jets are going to play their way into playoff contention, they’re likely going to have to win a lot of shootout games. That’s certainly possible, especially considering how weak this schedule looks on its face. But until Darnold and this offense prove they can put up 40 points on a regular basis, we’re betting against it.

The best/worst case range for this team is probably still seven to nine wins. Earlier this offseason, we leaned toward the top end of that projection. But after watching this team up close for a while, we’re bearish on their chances.

But hey, this is the NFL. Teams unexpectedly turn things around all the time. Perhaps Gase and Co. will prove us wrong.

Matt Stypulkoski may be reached at mstypulkoski@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @M_Stypulkoski. Find NJ.com Jets on Facebook.

[Pac]

If all goes right the defense has the potential to be mediocre.

[dbatesman]

40 minutes ago, Pac said:

If all goes right the defense has the potential to be mediocre.

It’s like these clowns have never even heard of Jachai Polite

[Jetsfan80]

3 minutes ago, Pac said:

If all goes right the defense has the potential to be mediocre.

Elite in run defense tho

[nico002]

Im not sure how you could watch training camp/preseason and LOWER your opinion. 7-9 is not unreasonable but the logic is flawed 

[Jetsfan80]

Just now, nico002 said:

Im not sure how you could watch training camp/preseason and LOWER your opinion. 7-9 is not unreasonable but the logic is flawed 

We have terrible corners and no pass rush.  The hope early in camp/preseason was that we'd be better in those departments.

The offense looks great.  But like the article said, expect a lot of shootouts.  

[nj meadowlands]

I like when people predict between 7 and 9 wins (or predict anything for that matter) as if they've performed some sort of brave analysis based on a special method

[slats]

These preseason game-by-game breakdowns are little more than mental masturbation. Players will get hurt, bust, break out, etc., over the course of the year on every team. A little early to predict the Jets finishing the season with three straight losses. 

[Integrity28]

I’ve considered 8-wins our ceiling all along. Basically, since they kept Mac. No matter who the new coach was going to be.

Sam is a great kid to root for, but 10 years of bad drafting is too much for a 22year old QB and a Dolphins flunked HC to compensate for.

Would Be fun to be wrong on this though.

[LockeJET]

Being fair this team is not ready for 10-12 wins. Could it happen, of course but the flaws are glaring. Pass rush and week cover guys will kill us this year unless we are averaging 35 points a game.

So I have to agree with this article. 7-9 wins seems like the type of team we are right now. Could even win less and it wouldn't be totally shocking given our deficiencies.

[Legend Killa7]

3 minutes ago, nico002 said:

Im not sure how you could watch training camp/preseason and LOWER your opinion. 7-9 is not unreasonable but the logic is flawed 

I can see that, but his reasoning for the Redskins and Raiders losses are just not right!  yeah the Jets will lose to the skins because we cannot handle winning a few games in a row?  really?

and then the Steelers game too.  well we will most likely be eliminated from playoffs so we just roll over.  I'm not saying we should/will beat them, but the reasoning is off.

[Integrity28]

1 minute ago, slats said:

These preseason game-by-game breakdowns are little more than mental masturbation. Players will get hurt, bust, break out, etc., over the course of the year on every team. A little early to predict the Jets finishing the season with three straight losses. 

On to Buffalo 

[Scoop24]

Football predictions are so useless but making them on preseason where nobody is game planning is terrible.. its The ultimate year to year sport . How many people had the jags going to the super bowl last year and how that turn out .

[Jetsfan80]

3 minutes ago, slats said:

These preseason game-by-game breakdowns are little more than mental masturbation. Players will get hurt, bust, break out, etc., over the course of the year on every team. A little early to predict the Jets finishing the season with three straight losses. 

I agree that they could have done without those.  The more important takeaways were the "big picture" beginning and end of the article.  But I guess they had a minimum word requirement or something.  

Vegas has us at 7.5 wins.  One way or another that's about how it'll end up for this team.  

[nj meadowlands]

2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I agree that they could have done without those.  The more important takeaways were the "big picture" beginning and end of the article.  But I guess they had a minimum word requirement or something.  

Vegas has us at 7.5 wins.  One way or another that's about how it'll end up for this team.  

I'll bet you everything I have they don't finish with 7.5 wins

[Jetsfan80]

Just now, nj meadowlands said:

I'll bet you everything I have they don't finish with 7.5 wins

If we go 7-8-1, does that end up a push?

[Fantasy Island]

Losing to Oakland just too funny.

[slats]

8 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I agree that they could have done without those.  The more important takeaways were the "big picture" beginning and end of the article.  But I guess they had a minimum word requirement or something.  

Vegas has us at 7.5 wins.  One way or another that's about how it'll end up for this team.  

Maccagnan got fired for a good reason. He wasn't good at his job. The Jets have holes in places where you don't want them. It's extremely difficult to scheme your way around bad CB play. I think that 7.5 number is very fair. Jets are gonna have to stay healthy and have a couple surprising breakout players to get to the .500 mark, IMHO, and it would take a couple lucky bounces after that to consider the playoffs. 

Joe Douglas can only do so much this year, and it's not much. This year it's about installing an offense that Darnold loves to run, and a culture change across the board. I think that breakdown is off the mark when it says that Gase will have trouble motivating the team in week 17, those guys are gonna be playing for their jobs. A handful of guys will be safe, but Gase and Douglas will be looking to improve everywhere next year. 

[chrisfaceoff]

This isn't what I want to hear, so i'm dismissing this article and considering it BS

Please re-write the article to adjust our record to 10-6 clinching a wildcard birth.

 

Thanks.

 

-Chris

[nj meadowlands]

In all seriousness, the Jets have improved talent in key areas (QB, offensive line, offensive playmaker) but also serious questions (corner and edge rush leading the way).  They also have one of the easiest schedules in the league, although that is also somewhat hard to predict, as well as the least travel of any team in the NFL.  They're probably one of the hardest teams in the NFL to figure this year.  If the Jets finish with 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, or even 11 wins, I won't be blown away.  If they finish with 5 or fewer (Gase might be canned), or 12 or more (Gase might be enshrined), that would be pretty incredible.

[Jetsfan80]

4 minutes ago, slats said:

Maccagnan got fired for a good reason. He wasn't good at his job. The Jets have holes in places where you don't want them. It's extremely difficult to scheme your way around bad CB play. I think that 7.5 number is very fair. Jets are gonna have to stay healthy and have a couple surprising breakout players to get to the .500 mark, IMHO, and it would take a couple lucky bounces after that to consider the playoffs. 

Joe Douglas can only do so much this year, and it's not much. This year it's about installing an offense that Darnold loves to run, and a culture change across the board. I think that breakdown is off the mark when it says that Gase will have trouble motivating the team in week 17, those guys are gonna be playing for their jobs. A handful of guys will be safe, but Gase and Douglas will be looking to improve everywhere next year. 

The 2020 offseason will be fascinating.  Enormous roster turnover ahead.  

[Jetsfan80]

3 minutes ago, nj meadowlands said:

In all seriousness, the Jets have improved talent in key areas (QB, offensive line, offensive playmaker) but also serious questions (corner and edge rush leading the way).  They also have one of the easiest schedules in the league, although that is also somewhat hard to predict, as well as the least travel of any team in the NFL.  They're probably one of the hardest teams in the NFL to figure this year.  If the Jets finish with 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, or even 11 wins, I won't be blown away.  If they finish with 5 or fewer (Gase might be canned), or 12 or more (Gase might be enshrined), that would be pretty incredible.

10+ wins I will be blown away.  5-9 won't be shocking at all.  

[Fantasy Island]

13 minutes ago, nj meadowlands said:

I'll bet you everything I have they don't finish with 7.5 wins

You win this thread!!!!

[nycdan]

7 minutes ago, slats said:

Maccagnan got fired for a good reason. He wasn't good at his job. The Jets have holes in places where you don't want them. It's extremely difficult to scheme your way around bad CB play.

I think that pass rush up the middle is exactly how you scheme around bad CB play.  I don't think we've necessarily gone and done that, although QW certainly gives us some potential there, but getting to the QB as fast as possible takes the long ball away.  We'll have to see.

One other thing.  Everyone judging the Jets on what we've seen so far is being a bit simple.  We have seen almost none of our starting OLine.  We've seen none of Le'veon Bell.  And we've seen none of our starting CB, who despite his play last year, certainly has shown that he can be a very effective guy when healthy.  

Bottom line is, there are plenty of legitimate red flags here, but I would wait to see Bell in action before I got too smug about my predictions.  

 

[The Voice of Reason]

This guy is just getting clicks. He has been writing negative articles the last few weeks. 

[GreenFish]

One thing nobody seems to want to write about is CJ Mosley. Has anyone heard or seen this guy have an impact? Should we be giving him partial credit for the culture change we’re seeing? 

 

[Adoni Beast]

9-7

[The Crusher]

38 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

It’s like these clowns have never even heard of Jachai Polite

Not true. They heard of him. They heard he’s fat, slow, can’t jump and unmotivated. Basically my spirit animal. 

[ZachEY]

Short of Quinnen Williams being Aaron Donald in his rookie year, I'm struggling to understand how the defense isn't bad.

[slats]

11 minutes ago, nycdan said:

I think that pass rush up the middle is exactly how you scheme around bad CB play.  I don't think we've necessarily gone and done that, although QW certainly gives us some potential there, but getting to the QB as fast as possible takes the long ball away.  We'll have to see.

I agree. When I said the Jets were gonna have to have some breakout players, I had QW in mind. If he's in the DROY conversation, Gregg Williams has probably done his job this year. 

11 minutes ago, nycdan said:

One other thing.  Everyone judging the Jets on what we've seen so far is being a bit simple.  We have seen almost none of our starting OLine.  We've seen none of Le'veon Bell.  And we've seen none of our starting CB, who despite his play last year, certainly has shown that he can be a very effective guy when healthy.  

Bottom line is, there are plenty of legitimate red flags here, but I would wait to see Bell in action before I got too smug about my predictions. 

I agree, but in the writer of this article's defense, they've seen a lot of those guys in practice that we haven't seen. That's their whole premise of this piece. 

[Maxman]

So he has the Jets at 7 and 7 with two games left but the playoffs are a long shot?

[The Crusher]

33 minutes ago, Fantasy Island said:

Losing to Oakland just too funny.

Just one of the 12 teams this year. We got potential top tier players at every level and future hall of famers as back ups. Antonio Brown will play without a helmet and will dominate because perfect sight, I’m pretty sure he just got bionic feet. Because he literally trained till his fell off. How else can he run so fast? 

                   - Raiderholic

[Jetster]

This article was complete Bullspit from the f*cking beginning because the answer to the question is NONE OF US HAS SEEN THE STARTING LINEUP play together.....NOT ONCE!

The 1st 2 times the oline was in tact they scored TDs on the 1st drive. We've already seen that our backup RB, Ty Montgomery is better than all 3 of our starting RBs from last year in Powell, McGuire & Cannon. 

Jamison Crowder is head & shoulders better than the guy that basically retired while playing year in Kearse. We actually have 2 Centers better than the one we started with last year. Our LG is better by miles. Maye is back, we added QW, we added a Pro Bowl LB in Mosely, Darnold looks like a different QB all together, Gase has put in an uptempo offensive system, Quincy is back, Robbie looks ready to roll & we haven't even seen Le'veon Bell, but yea, after seeing our starters for a month? Wait Wut?

[Jetsfan80]

17 minutes ago, GreenFish said:

One thing nobody seems to want to write about is CJ Mosley. Has anyone heard or seen this guy have an impact? Should we be giving him partial credit for the culture change we’re seeing? 

"Culture change" doesn't mean anything if you aren't good at stopping the pass or forcing turnovers.  Mosley has just 8.5 sacks, 6 FF, 5 FR, 32 QB Hits and 1 INT over 5 seasons.  

We're solid up the middle with run-stoppers.  We need pass rush and corner play to be successful in today's NFL.  

[Jet Nut]

43 minutes ago, slats said:

These preseason game-by-game breakdowns are little more than mental masturbation. Players will get hurt, bust, break out, etc., over the course of the year on every team. A little early to predict the Jets finishing the season with three straight losses. 

Exactly teams, both the Jets and whoever we play in week 12 most often arent what we think they are today as they will be in week 12.

We beat an unimpressive Colts team.  A few weeks later when they started a run they probably destroy us.  

A year or two back we beat the Chiefs when they were in a funk.  Couple of weeks later theyre rolling over teams again, we probably get destroyed.