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We are still going to the playoffs

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FO has us at an 8.2% chance of making the playoffs.  That sounds pretty fair right now.

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11 minutes ago, The Voice of Reason said:

And? statistics are just that... Great to use for gambling but never tell the full story.

Saying the Jets have an 8.2% chance of making the playoffs is neither a statistic nor an attempt to “tell the full story.”

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4 minutes ago, The Voice of Reason said:

I don't think you realize what a statistic is

If only I could be as knowledgeable as you seem to think you are.

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9 minutes ago, SAR I said:

wins.jpg

Here are your 9 wins.  10 if we can beat NE at home or beat WAS on the road.

SAR I

Anyone who's been a Jet fan long enough knows we're getting torched by the Daniel Jones led Giants.

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37 minutes ago, The Voice of Reason said:

Dude, seriously... Come on... at least admit when you are wrong... 

I'm not, but it's cool.

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27 minutes ago, SAR I said:

greateight.jpg

These guys aren't going to let that happen.

Its a new era of Jets football.  Just because the injuries have thrown you back into the SOJ zone doesn't mean its who we are.

SAR I

These guys are not going to let us lose to the Bills at home with a 16 point lead.  They're not going to lose to the Browns at home with their stealth black jerseys.  This is a bad football team, despite your photo montage, until proven otherwise.

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Just now, The Voice of Reason said:

8.2% chance to make playoffs is not a statistic???

Ummmm ok?

Context matters.  We're talking on a football message board, where statistics are measures of performance on a football field.

Anyway, as you've been so brutally wrong with all your takes, sounds like you could use this win.  It's yours.  I'll even make you a certificate if you like.

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5 minutes ago, SAR I said:

What did FO have the Colts as when they opened 1-5 last year? 

Asking for a friend.

SAR I

I imagine it was pretty low.  Something having an 8.2% chance of happening doesn’t mean it can’t happen.  It means it will happen a little less than 1/10 times.  I bet for every 1-5 team who makes the playoffs you can find 9-10 who don’t, no?

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1 minute ago, SAR I said:

16 point lead would have been 23 points if our franchise quarterback wasn't at 80% with a 104 fever and an enlarged spleen.

16 point lead would have been 20 points if our kicker wasn't someone bagging groceries at Walmart right now.

16 point lead would have held on its own if our franchise LB didn't pull a groin making a TD saving play in the endzone.

20 point Browns loss would have been a 10 point Jets win if we didn't have 7 starters injured including our best Offensive and Defensive players.

I know you see an 0-2 dysfunction.  What we really are is a 2-0 team that is badly injured.  That ends at Philadelphia.  That's the new season opener where the Jets go 9-4 completely healthy and with an easy schedule.

SAR I

I imagine if we allow ourselves to play this game, we could get 10 wins out of last season too.

We needed 4 turnovers to get into a position to blame the kicker.  How often do we get that gift?  Even if we were 1-1, that doesn’t make us good.

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5 minutes ago, The Voice of Reason said:

There is no context needed... you rattled off a ratio and I said who cares about statistics and you are the one that tried to correct me until I proved you wrong... Come on dude seriously... Do you argue just to argue...

I get it... you think I am overly optimistic and because I don't jump on the world is on fire the Jets will have the number 1 pick band wagon... I am automatically wrong.

When the Jets finish in the playoffs or just short I will remember that you told me that I am brutally wrong on all my takes.. and how right you are.

Who do I make out that certificate to again?

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8 hours ago, Smashmouth said:

Back in the early 90's the SD Chargers started out 0-4 they were terrible and I can remember vividly analysts laughing at just how terrible they were. Then they ripped off 11 out of the next 12 and won their first playoff game. I'm not saying the Jets can pull that off but I have seen teams look pretty horrible the first quarter of the season and then get it turned around. The Jets did it in 2002 starting 2-5 .

The OL can't be this bad and right now that's the focus of all our problems. The Defense has played well but they are also on the field at an alarming rate which is not good for any defense. The main problem the OL can be fixed and if that happens and we somehow start to get healthy and get Herndon and Copeland back we can make a decent run at this due to the easy schedule down the stretch.

Yes it's a stretch but we have to try and pull something positive out of this debacle

Hence why it’s 8.2% and not 0%.

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16 hours ago, thshadow said:

I can't believe you guys are arguing over semantics, but for the record, you're wrong.  Statistics analyzes and interprets existing data.  Like 0-2 is a statistic, or averaging -3 passing yards per attempt.  8.2% is a probability.

image.png.93399d3e5647ede3688236330d1815b1.png

And my MIT professor would have argued that 8.2% isn't even a probability, because "the Jets making the playoffs this year" is a 1-time event, not something that can be repeated - but that's a more philosophical question.

 

 

So, what am I supposed to do with this certificate now?  It has gold foil and everything.

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Yeah, I think if I lived in Buffalo or was from there, I’d probably also be taking a victory lap over 4 turnover Josh Allen barely beating the Mono-QB’d, Ray Finkled Jets, who, aren’t actually good as well as the NY Saquons, in a year where I still have no chance to win the division.  It’d be all I had.  Well, that and Mountain Dew mouth.

Leave these guys alone, JN.  This is practically their Make-A-Wish.

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11 hours ago, Peace Frog said:

His spleen was likely larger than your brain.

Oof.

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4 hours ago, SAR I said:

We don't need to.  The AFC isn't that strong right now.  Once you get past NE and KC there is a whole bunch of crap.

 2-0 Bills
1-1 Browns
1-1 Titans
1-1 Chargers
0-2 Jets
0-2 Steelers

 Two of those teams are getting into the playoffs.  We had the Bills beaten, they have their tough games late, and their quarterback is dreadful.  Browns are about to go to 1-5.  Chargers are old.  Steelers and Colts lost their franchise quarterbacks.

 Listen, we're not competing for a Super Bowl or anything, but we as a team are ready to take a step and grab a wildcard.  Someone is getting the #6 seed at 9-7.  It should be us.

 SAR I

Agreed, the AFC is generally weak.  But look at the other teams schedules and tell me how the Jets finish ahead of all but one of them.  

AFC North: Obviously you're giving the Ravens the win.  Steelers might be finished, but the Browns, while they may lose a bunch of games in the next few weeks, are also poised for a late season up swing. 

AFC West: Obviously we give the Chiefs the win.  But, the Chargers and Raiders are both very much alive, and their greatest deterrent is playing the Chiefs twice, which the Raiders have already gotten one out of the way.  Assume the Broncos are dead.

AFC South: Looks like you're giving the Texans the win there.  But, Titans have a path to 8-3 or 7-4 possible.   Colts have a tougher road it looks like, but too soon to count them out, considering they've been competent w/ Brisset.  Call the Jags dead, I guess.  

AFC East: Pats win.  Look at Buffalo's schedule.  They could get themselves to 10 wins, potentially.  Strong chance they go 3-0 this weekend.  They're looking at 5-1 or 4-2 potential, if they do.

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On 9/18/2019 at 1:30 PM, TeddEY said:

Anyone who's been a Jet fan long enough knows we're getting torched by the Daniel Jones led Giants.

Feeling so strong about this...

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58 minutes ago, SAR I said:

wins.jpg

There’s the script. Read it. Don’t let the overreactive media make you sad.

SAR I

Zero margin for error, and 9-7 doesn’t make the playoffs with Bills at 3-0, Colts winning, etc.

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2 hours ago, 1ManRaid said:

What the hell is "gay math" supposed to mean?

That “math” is a conspiracy proliferated by “the gays” to push their nefarious “agenda.”

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5 hours ago, jgb said:

Got concussed and played Pats’ elite D tougher than anyone has yet this year. 

This could be a very premature victory lap.

Allen leads the league in INTs and has by far the lowest passer rating of any starting QB.  He is not good.  He’s Mark Sanchez to an elite Bills Defense.

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Meanwhile, we open at 13.5 point dogs against SAR’s 1st must win game for the playoffs.

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3 minutes ago, jgb said:

So we're ready to say he sucks based on about the same number of games that we're ready to crown Darnold. Gotcha.

You must have me mistaken as someone crowning Darnold.

But yes, I’m comfortable saying Allen sucks today.

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38 minutes ago, jgb said:

You're better than the pro scouts. So you've seen Darnold play the same amount of games approximately, what's your conclusion on him, then?

Inconclusive.  I don’t see an elite QB, but I also see a floor at above average.

I wouldn’t have drafted Allen in round 1.

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Just now, jgb said:

Sounds like you're basing your analysis on Allen based on what you saw in college, which is far, but he's also inconclusive imho.

That’s fine.  Anything can happen in the future.  But today, I am comfortable with my ‘decision’ not to draft Allen.  I’m including college in so far as he looks like the exact same player in the NFL as he did in college.  I’d be more inconclusive if there was some evidence of a struggle to transition to the pro game or some reason to think the college struggles weren’t the reality.  That doesn’t seem to be the case at present.  Rather, I think you’re seeing a big, strong, guy with the best “weapinzzzzz” he’s ever had, still struggling to complete passes, and turning the ball over at an alarming rate.

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1 hour ago, jgb said:

You're better than the pro scouts.

This is why I mentioned college/draft.

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1 hour ago, jgb said:

You had it Darnold, Baker, Rosen, Allen in that order? Where did Jackson slot in for you?

FWIW, I had Baker, Darnold, Allen, Jackson, [every other eligible QB], Rosen.

I'm not actually a huge CFB guy.  I read up on some of the top guys that may have a possibility to become Jets.  I wanted Darnold or Rosen, but could have also been sold on Baker.  I was a bit lower on Baker due to his size.  Admittedly, I liked Rosen more than I probably should have.  I still would like to see him play for a team that isn't a complete disaster, but I'd guess he's pretty much toast at this point as Miami will probably keep him around and draft a QB at #1 this year.  As for Jackson, I was intrigued, but since I was pretty sure there was no way were were going to give him serious consideration, I didn't read/watch much.  I simply did not want Allen because he was wildly inaccurate.

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27 minutes ago, SAR I said:

The Teddy Bridgewater Saints just beat the Cowboys and the Bucs just beat the Rams, so why can't the Jets beat the Eagles?

SAR I

Teddy Bridgewater is a more than competent NFL QB.

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3 minutes ago, jgb said:

Don't think Allen ever had a chance to be a Jet. Macc probably saw a rich man's Hackenberg. If Jints went Darnold, I think we'd be trying to convince ourselves that Rosen could succeed with a good line and better weaponz... Glad we dodged that bullet.

Macc never did anything to convince me he wouldn't make the worst possible decision and hey, maybe the Jets saw something in Rosen that I didn't.  Regardless, I'm glad to have Darnold, because even though I am not sold on him, I think his floor is pretty high, and I think he'll be pretty good, at least, if we ever put even adequate talent around him.

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Just now, jgb said:

 Darnold is infinitely better than Rosen, whose ceiling is--I believe--Mark Sanchez.

Anyway, can we get back to the point of this thread?

There is no ******* way the Jets are making the playoffs.

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2 hours ago, JiF said:

I'm looking forward to the 1st overall pick! 

5th overall this year.  Too far for a trade back.

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1 hour ago, SAR I said:

With this morning's pessimistic news on Sam Spleen, its not looking likely.  Which is a shame because next year is even harder:

winnow.jpg

Home schedule is about the same level of difficulty, but the Road schedule is brutal.  4 trips out West.  At the Seahawks, at the Chiefs, 2 games in the new LA stadium against potent offenses.  2021 looks pretty good though. 

SAR I

Wins will come if the team improves.  I’m not terribly worried about the schedule.  The Rams just gave up 55 to Tampa Bay.  Just fix the wholes and hope Darnold is good, the outcomes will take care of themselves.

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17 hours ago, JiF said:

You think we finished better than 4 other teams?  

 

We still play the Dolphins twice, and the Redskins and Bengals.  We're coming out of that stretch with at least 2 wins, but I'd guess 3.

Then Denver and Arizona are still out there.

I think 5th, maybe 4th, is where we end up.

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1 minute ago, UntouchableCrew said:

Agree. We have a very soft middle of the schedule when Darnold will be back. This feels like a 4-12 season to me.

Darnold's still an *if* more than a when at this point for me.  We'll see.  That said, should be some good WR talent, and unless you have an elite edge rusher, I'm all-in on offense this year.

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2 minutes ago, JiF said:

I think EY's probably right

getting T-shirts made up.

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