Rex: Baker Mayfield “overrated as hell”

[CTM]

2 minutes ago, nycdan said:

Baker made himself a target for ridicule if his game ever dropped off.  I believe he had complete confidence that it would never happen.  Now he's got to reap what he sowed.  He may turn it back around but a little humility probably wasn't a bad thing for him.  

/thread 

 

[greenwichjetfan]

6 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

To be fair, DVOA takes into account supporting cast.  Hence why its a pretty useful tool. 

It does? I just quickly checked out FO's site and didn't see it mention there. How does it assign value to supporting cast and standardize it across teams? In this instance, how is Jarvis Landry graded? He's WR2 on the browns comparatively, but would be a WR1 on other teams as a standalone, and might grade out as a WR3 on a team like the Texans (depending on how they base their valuations). Are the supporting cast valuations based on their respective success on each play?

[Jetsfan80]

2 minutes ago, greenwichjetfan said:

It does? I just quickly checked out FO's site and didn't see it mention there. How does it assign value to supporting cast and standardize it across teams? In this instance, how is Jarvis Landry graded? He's WR2 on the browns comparatively, but would be a WR1 on other teams as a standalone, and might grade out as a WR3 on a team like the Texans (depending on how they base their valuations). Are the supporting cast valuations based on their respective success on each play?

Yep.  It's player vs. expected production in the exact situation.  Their value above replacement is what gets the DVOA.  It's average "value" per play.  

In their model, a 3 yard 1st down run on 3rd & 2 is far more valuable than a 3 yard run on 1st and 10.  Stuff like that.  

[greenwichjetfan]

Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

Yep.  It's player vs. expected production in the exact situation.  Their value above replacement is what gets the DVOA.  It's average "value" per play.  

Interesting. I wonder how significant the supporting cast valuation changes based on QBs, and therefore, how correlated it is to the QB's expected production. For example, the expected production for Robby/Crowder/Bell probably dropped significantly with Falk rather than with Sam.

[Jetsfan80]

4 minutes ago, greenwichjetfan said:

Interesting. I wonder how significant the supporting cast valuation changes based on QBs, and therefore, how correlated it is to the QB's expected production. For example, the expected production for Robby/Crowder/Bell probably dropped significantly with Falk rather than with Sam.

Yeah, hopefully one of the numbers people here can explain, lol.  

[JustInFudge]

2 hours ago, 14 in Green said:

Hmmm, I'm at a loss here, and now I'm shaking MY head.... Did I pump up Darnold's performance too much? I thought my post was incredibly astute actually. I also thought it was fair, balanced and insightful. It just goes to show, you can't please everybody.  ?

Sorry, I should have given you more for that post but Bakery did not have the same game as Sam yesterday.  That's crazy talk.

I dont agree with your list because while Lamar and Allen are winning, they're beating the dregs of the NFL and I dont really think they have sustainable games.  Guys like that get exposed in Dec and in the playoffs.   Bakery Mayfield is straight trash.  Like hot stinky garbage but I think he's probably got a better long term future than those 2 guys.  If you're putting stock into anyone right now just on their play alone, not W/L's because who you play and your surrounding team matters,  it's Sam Darnold.  Go look at what he's done over his last 5 starts on one of the worst teams in the NFL vs good teams with great D's.

 

1 hour ago, 14 in Green said:

Lets be honest here, this was never the day to argue Baker's merits.

You guys were having a field day piling on him (rightfully so the way he played yesterday). I just figured the narrative needed to be changed, and with one post, boom. We're talking about Josh Allen.

Now I just have to figure out a way to throw you off your game, Greenwich.

LOL. You're a stubborn SOB. ?

cc @JiF and @Jetsfan80

This isnt personal for me dude, dont drag me into this.  I'm not here to rub anything in anyone's face.

I hate Bakery Mayfield with a passion.  I enjoy watching assholes like him fail.  I believe in karma and enjoy when I get to see it play out.  Go back and read my pre draft take on Baker, I said it numerous times as I started to have to come to grips with the chance the Jets drafted him.  I basically said, at least I'll get front row seats to the crash and burn.  So here I am! 

[CTM]

1 hour ago, greenwichjetfan said:

It does? I just quickly checked out FO's site and didn't see it mention there. How does it assign value to supporting cast and standardize it across teams? In this instance, how is Jarvis Landry graded? He's WR2 on the browns comparatively, but would be a WR1 on other teams as a standalone, and might grade out as a WR3 on a team like the Texans (depending on how they base their valuations). Are the supporting cast valuations based on their respective success on each play?

uh, I don't think 80 is right. It adjsuts for the opponnent but not teammastes. Qbase deducts for playing with people who are going to be drafted earlier. That is different than DVOA

[JustInFudge]

1 hour ago, CTM said:

/thread 

 

You think that post ends this 25 page thread?  lmfao

[The Crusher]

2 hours ago, greenwichjetfan said:

I’d say you’re definitely holding Baker to a different standard.

The below are a few of the things that he’s been so good at this year. He’s even leading the league in one category, and ahead of a 2-time SB MVP in another!
 

Luke Falk completed a pass? Hmmm

[JustInFudge]

1 minute ago, CTM said:

uh, I don't think 80 is right. It adjsuts for the opponnent but not teammastes. Qbase deducts for playing with people who are going to be drafted earlier. That is different than DVOA

It doesnt even properly adjust for opponents.  They had Mayfield way over Rudolph who played the same schedule.  But I'm pretty sure it doesnt take teammates into account because that's what I used to yell about it when discussing that specific example with that silly thingamajob.

[greenwichjetfan]

10 minutes ago, CTM said:

uh, I don't think 80 is right. It adjsuts for the opponnent but not teammastes. Qbase deducts for playing with people who are going to be drafted earlier. That is different than DVOA

Yea, I always thought DVOA was simply a defense controlled metric. Anything related to supporting casts would be either arbitrary or fail due to circular referencing.

[greenwichjetfan]

10 minutes ago, The Crusher said:

Luke Falk completed a pass? Hmmm

Of all of the Baker related stats and facts in this thread, the only one that gave me pause was that one.

[jetstream23]

2 hours ago, greenwichjetfan said:

I’d say you’re definitely holding Baker to a different standard.

The below are a few of the things that he’s been so good at this year. He’s even leading the league in one category, and ahead of a 2-time SB MVP in another!
 

whoa!

[Jet Nut]

7 hours ago, kevinc855 said:

Most interceptions by any Browns QB since 1984 through the first 6 weeks of a season. Just leaving this here.....11 by the way.

?‍♂️

Most INTs by any NFL QB since he was put in as the Browns starter.

 

 

[The Crusher]

5 minutes ago, greenwichjetfan said:

Of all of the Baker related stats and facts in this thread, the only one that gave me pause was that one.

No kidding. The only memory I have of Luke Falk laying down for ten sacks then handing the defender the ball to go score a touchdown. All I can remember. 

[nycdan]

3 minutes ago, The Crusher said:

No kidding. The only memory I have of Luke Falk laying down for ten sacks then handing the defender the ball to go score a touchdown. All I can remember. 

I had to look.  Luke Falk completed 64.4% of his passes.  To his own teammates.  Ahead of Mahomes, Rodgers, even Danny Dimes.  Football is a funny sport.

 

[CTM]

43 minutes ago, JiF said:

You think that post ends this 25 page thread?  lmfao

No, it should end the thread. It wont because this thread is one of many which the boards exercises its collective BPD

[CTM]

34 minutes ago, nycdan said:

I had to look.  Luke Falk completed 64.4% of his passes.  To his own teammates.  Ahead of Mahomes, Rodgers, even Danny Dimes.  Football is a funny sport.

 

Or it's why Chadpletion % is the most over rated QB stat

[Pac]

I'm not reading this filth but is it as gratifying as I hope it is?  All the Baker and Brown ball washers get put in their place and what not?

[nycdan]

7 minutes ago, CTM said:

Or it's why Chadpletion % is the most over rated QB state.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_cmp_perc_career.htm

There are always going to be outliers, but that looks like a pretty solid predictor of success.  Don't let a few bad data points invalidate the whole metric for you.  
 

Having said that, here's a metric that seems to be much better for ranking QBs:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_adj_net_yds_per_att_career.htm

 

[CTM]

24 minutes ago, nycdan said:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_cmp_perc_career.htm

There are always going to be outliers, but that looks like a pretty solid predictor of success.  Don't let a few bad data points invalidate the whole metric for you.  
 

Having said that, here's a metric that seems to be much better for ranking QBs:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_adj_net_yds_per_att_career.htm

 

ANY/A is a good one.

[Jetsfan80]

Or it's why Chadpletion % is the most over rated QB stat

 

When the YPA and air yards per attempt are low, yes, it’s meaningless.

[Villain The Foe]

12 hours ago, Pac said:

I'm not reading this filth but is it as gratifying as I hope it is?  All the Baker and Brown ball washers get put in their place and what not?

tl;dr. 

 

[mphtrilogy]

there are a lot of ads with mayfield in them, he didn't waste any time, probably a good move on his part...

[Jets723]

Honestly I don’t pay attention to other QBs unless it directly impacts us BUT I will say it is a little a Gratifying seeing Mayfield fall back to earth.  Let’s be honest many people(even our own fans) were kind of kissing his ass and his arrogance and dumb comments make it’s tough to like him.  However I try to be fair. I do think he is talented and has a furure(as long as he keeps his head together) BUT I have always said that I feel Sam is the better overall QB and also mentally tougher 

[slats]

15 hours ago, CTM said:

ANY/A is a good one.

It's really just an alternate QB rating system. Same basic numbers plugged in differently. 

[CTM]

19 minutes ago, slats said:

It's really just an alternate QB rating system. Same basic numbers plugged in differently. 

Sure. I mean so is QBR and DVOA. But each have different merits and some or more accurate than others.

[The Crusher]

3 minutes ago, CTM said:

Sure. I mean so is QBR and DVOA. But each have different merits and some or more accurate than others.

QBs that only do well against bad teams would be the an important sorting factor. Every year we see a guy tearing of win after win and the teams he beats have a combined win titAl of 3. Then they play a winning team and slam back to earth like me after almost a jumping jacks. 

[Villain The Foe]

1 hour ago, mphtrilogy said:

there are a lot of ads with mayfield in them, he didn't waste any time, probably a good move on his part...

I heard this morning that he shot 20 different Progressive insurance commercials total. As well as 1 for Hulu. 

Cash in while your name is a hot commodity. However, this will fade to dust if he doesnt win. 

 

[Villain The Foe]

Here's a stat that will be overlooked. 

Baker Mayfield's targets have dropped a total of 10 passes, which is 3rd in the league. 

7 of those 10 drops....turned into interceptions. 

Of Mayfield's 11 INT's, 7 of them hit the hands of his receivers. 

Go figure. 

 

This gives me indication that the INT's can be turned around. 

[More Cowbell]

6 minutes ago, Villain The Foe said:

Here's a stat that will be overlooked. 

Baker Mayfield's targets have dropped a total of 10 passes, which is 3rd in the league. 

7 of those 10 drops....turned into interceptions. 

Of Mayfield's 11 INT's, 7 of them hit the hands of his receivers. 

Go figure. 

 

This gives me indication that the INT's can be turned around. 

Not neccesarily.  I haven't  seen all his picks that went off hands but the only time I fault a WR for a pick is if after it hits him in the hands, he pops the ball into the air. If the ball grazes off the WR's hands, it's  possibly still a catchable ball if the player makes an outstanding effort, but probably is not placed as well as it could have been. If all of the passes were batted into the air, I then totally agree

[Philc1]

On 9/25/2019 at 9:48 AM, JiF said:

Baker Mayfield sucks.

The only fun part of this season so far is watching Baker Mayfield and Marvin Mariota the two future faces of the nfl self destruct

[Philc1]

On 10/15/2019 at 10:32 AM, More Cowbell said:

Not neccesarily.  I haven't  seen all his picks that went off hands but the only time I fault a WR for a pick is if after it hits him in the hands, he pops the ball into the air. If the ball grazes off the WR's hands, it's  possibly still a catchable ball if the player makes an outstanding effort, but probably is not placed as well as it could have been. If all of the passes were batted into the air, I then totally agree

Can’t wait to see belichick end this turd 

[K_O_Brien]

Imagine this guy in New York.

 

 

 

[sec101row23]

13 minutes ago, K_O_Brien said:

Imagine this guy in New York.

 

 

 

He’s always been an arrogant little pr**k.   
 

Here is a direct contrast when another young QB gets questioned about a drive.  Easy to see the difference in maturity.