Jump to content
Philc1

Rex: Baker Mayfield “overrated as hell”

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, Patriot Killa said:

true but it’s almost like these analysts look to cement the most recent success as the new norm and that’s the bigger issue.

Of course.  It's all about "What have you done for me lately."  But if this sh*tty season continues for Mayfield it'll become the new normal, and rightly so.  2018 will look like a fluke.

It's not like Pat Mahomes is out there having a sophomore slump (or "junior slump", if you count his 1 game in 2017 as his rookie season).  

  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

True. 

Ok you are right, maybe he sucks. Lol

The truth is somewhere in the middle.  He took the league by storm in '18 as a QB who came in midseason.  In '19 the league is adjusting to his tendencies.  He could still very well be a top 10 QB in this league or he could end up a bust.  But he could also just end up being a "pretty good", above average QB and that would be good enough for a franchise that had a franchise QB since pretty much forever.

I think his personality will be the most important factor here, as was the big red flag for him coming out of school.  Is he tough enough to work through the adversity, or will he be little b*tch and pu$$y out when things aren't going his way?  That will be telling.  Because his talent isn't really in question here.  

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Patriot Killa said:

You’re misunderstanding my point. This doesn’t just have to do with Baker. The sports media does this with all players(especially QB’s). It’s their job. There are storylines and narratives that need to be created in order to feed themselves revenue thru the fan’s interest. I’m really not saying anything new but that’s where we are with it in 2019 except it’s a magnified aspect now with social media. I guess my point is — assessing talent on weekly basis is one thing — using words like “Bust” or “Overrated” — while working off the inpluse of those three games is another.

 

Your point makes sense, but it's funny calling Rex Ryan part of the "sports media".  Like calling Tom Brady a philanthropist.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Savage69 said:

The Ghost was one of his great picks.. If Mangini was so great how come he's not doing that for some team in the NFL?? You completely take out Tanny in your evaluation I bet and give every good pick to Mangini and the bad ones to Tanny..LOL The best QB REx had to work with was the Buttfumbler,Mangini had much better QB's and won nothing.. 

Beggars can't be choosers.  Whatever was working in the brief Mangini era was better than anything that the Herm/Bradway, Rex/Tannenbaum/Idzik and Bowles/Macc eras provided from the perspective of a talent influx.  All we know is the following:

  • The 2006 and '07 drafts are far better than any drafts we've had since.  Including when Tannenbaum was here AFTER Mangini was fired.
  • The 2008 Jets were 8-3 with the # 1 offense in the NFL prior to Brett Favre tearing his bicep.
  • The 2009 and '10 Jets were successful on the back of the talent acquired from 2006-08.  We didn't have the # 1 OL because of Rex, that's for sure.  We've failed to value the OL as a franchise from 2009-present.  

Whoever was ultimately responsible for those 2006 and '07 drafts and collection of talent brought in from 2006-08, we need a repeat of that level of success, or we're never going to be a contending franchise.  

  • Upvote 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

2) Can you imagine what this board would be saying about Darnold if he had OBJ and Landry to throw to and played the way Baker has over the course of the first three weeks? It would not be pretty.

Coming off his historic 2018 season, I think we'd be preaching patience.  

Fans have much less patience for Darnold, who has had an injury and sickness preventing him from seeing the field and has had mixed results when he has been healthy.  Despite Sam having much lesser talent than Mayfield, its fair to say Baker has looked like the better prospect to this point based on total body of work.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Losmeister said:

fwiw, me and @Jetsfan80 made money bets last year. 

proceeds to charity, which was his idea and a very good one. mad props.

it stems from the fact that I thought the Browns/Baker hype was premature.

props are-

 1) Browns will make playoffs THIS year.

2) Browns will win a playoff game NEXT year.

I bet against both, he bet for both. No stipulations for injury, but I'd still agree to nullify if Baker goes down

w/ a serious injury.

Jus sayn 

 

 

I'll stand by my picks!  What did we say, $50 to charity?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, JiF said:

Garnder Minshew is the best young QB in the league not named Mahomes

 

8 minutes ago, JiF said:

Mahomes>Watson>Minshew the rest of the league is garbage or old and who cares?

 

Maybe a tad early to anoint Minshew, wouldn't you say?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, 14 in Green said:

I'm sure the people mentioning us in a thread like this one don't realize it, but its so sad and obvious when they feel the need to tag either one of us, all they're really telling us is that we've been in their head for months. Just like Bosa and Mayfield. 

The funny thing is, it has nothing to do with us. It's about their needing Mayfield to fail to make them feel better about another QB's struggles. It's usually them that start these Baker threads, and they're the ones who bump them when he loses or plays badly. When have you ever bumped it when he's won, or played well? I know I never have.

Yet we're the trolls.

 

This is one of the most "Woe is me" posts ever written.  You post constantly all offseason and the first quarter of the season about Mayfield > Darnold and everyone else is the troll for calling you out when Baker looks like garbage.  

Get over yourself.  

  • Upvote 1
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, 14 in Green said:

I think what I said was Mayfield had a better rookie year then Darnold, which he did. But do I think he's still better then Darnold? That's easy. Of course he is. Nothing has changed, and won't until Sam gets on the field.

BTW I've always replied to you in a respectful way, and you've always done the same to me, even when we don't agree on a topic. We've had a lot of laughs together also talking about other things. Yet whenever its about Mayfield your posts have a really nasty tone to them. Why is that? Does my having a different take on him or Darnold really bother you that much?

 

It bothers me that you talk about Baker Mayfield in nearly every thread then whine when people complain about your posting.  We get it, dude.  Find some new topics to discuss.  Sam is back this week.  

  • Upvote 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, 14 in Green said:

This is a thread about Baker, and you're saying it bothers you that I'm talking about him here. That's like me saying it bothers me that you're talking about Macc in a Macc thread.

And yet you whine about people tagging you in this thread after another terrible game from Baker?  You're still gushing about the dude and comparing him to Pat Mahomes.

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, 14 in Green said:

I'm discussing the topic (Mayfield) with Villain. You're the one who jumped in and started whining that it bothered you.

You called the people who tagged you "trolls", dude.  If you want to have an uninterrupted private chat with Villain use the PM option.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, 14 in Green said:

Or I could do it in the thread where people are trolling me or villain.

Funny how you're so quick to call me a troll, but get upset when I use the term.

BTW this was fun, but I'm done. Gonna go watch the 'Cuse. Have a nice night.

You're not a troll.  More of an annoyance. 

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

3-INT day and another loss for the 2nd most unlikable player in the league. Ho hum.

 

If this keeps up and Sam balls out like he did today, this thread will never end.

  • Upvote 3
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, greenwichjetfan said:

1572614283_goon.PNG.3640b6ec31aa948b77f90b7f3607a4ed.PNG

 

All it took was one marginally better game for Baker (relatively speaking) for him to get back on that train.

Meanwhile, he's been accosting Jets fans all season about how we need to see Sam have a good game before people are allowed to keep ripping on poor Baker.  We got it, and yet here we are.  Baker and Sam had the same performance and Baker is still much better.  Also, Josh Allen is better for that matter, lol.  Can't make this stuff up.  

And is it even worth mentioning that Baker is throwing RZ picks even with the likes of Odell, Landry and Chubb at his disposal?  It's just comical at this point.  

  • Upvote 2
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1.  Lamar Jackson

2.  Sam Darnold

3.  Baker Mayfield

4.  Josh Rosen

5.  Josh Allen

 

^^^ The correct answer on where these QB's rank moving forward (not power rankings).  You're welcome.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, 14 in Green said:

LOL.

Josh Allen at 5, says everything that needs to be said about your credibility in this discussion.

Allen is like Mark Sanchez.  He takes away from what Buffalo can do rather than adds to it.  Thus I have him below Josh Rosen, since he's been stuck with 2 horrible teams to start his career.  It's a "devil you don't know" vs. a "devil you know".

I don't need "credibility" to make this point.  I have history on my side.  No QB with a statistical profile in college like Allen had has EVER had success in the modern NFL (IE since the rule changes favoring QB's).  And to this point, he's looked as bad as advertised.  He's a running back who sometimes completes passes.  

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, 14 in Green said:

I'm giving Allen a lot of credit for his play this year... I love a QB who ups his game in the 4th quarter, and one who wins. Granted, he isn't the one man show Jackson has been, but he's had a very good year so far, and is trending upwards. It's hard to ask for more from a second year guy.

Wow, just wow.  In just 2/5 games this year, the Bills offense has put up 20+ points.  And those were against really bad defenses (Giants, Bengals).  Think that's sustainable in the modern NFL?  It's easy to "up your game" in the 4th quarter when your defense gives you the ball back time and again.  The arguments you're making for Allen are the exact same ones people were making for Mark Sanchez.  

Your entire argument for Allen is based on rhetoric rather than things that actually matter when it comes to your QB.  Can he throw out of the pocket?  No.  Is a pure running QB sustainable in today's  NFL?  Nope.  Is a 56.1 career completion % with 15 TD/19 INT (5/7 this season) acceptable?  Not at all.  

  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, 14 in Green said:

Everyone here is entitled to their own opinion, even if it's as poor as this one is.

So at least you have that.

Rather than attacking my "credibility" and avoiding what I'm arguing, maybe make a case for Allen that is based on tangible points related to his ability as a QB?  

  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, greenwichjetfan said:

The big deal:

Cmp       Att          Cmp%   Yds         TD           Int          Rate       Sk           Yds         Y/A         AY/A

 

23           32           71.88     338         2              1              113.8     2              12           10.56     10.41

 

22           37           59.46     249         1              3              54.9        0              0              6.73        3.62

 

 

Yeah but stats are dumb.  Where's your stat for "moxy"?  That's what I want to see.  

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, CTM said:

The fixation on this board with Mayfield and now Daniel Jones has a ton to do with Darnold. I do not believe there would be all these long threads on these guys if Matt Ryan was our QB.

Of course you're correct, but its not exactly a profound point.  The curious thing is the obsession coming from the Baker defenders.  After all, we never had a chance to draft Mayfield in the first place.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, 14 in Green said:

You're just flailing around here, LOL. Pure emotional speculation. Yesterday was the best game I've ever seen Darnold play, and the Jets scored 24 points, LOL.

You have Rosen ahead of Allen, which as I said, destroys all your credibility. Last season and this offseason when I said Jackson was going to have a chance to be a really good QB, you laughed and said he was an injury waiting to happen. Now you have him first, LOL.

Darnold ahead of Mayfield is based on what exactly? Certainly not last year, that wasn't even close. Is it on this year? Darnold has played two games, one not good (insert mono explanation here), and one very good. So if you're moving him up ahead of Mayfield and Allen based on one game, I think I'm done here.

 I'm done, 80. I can't argue with your emotions, or your speculations. They're yours to keep, hold on to them..

 

Not one sentence in this post disputing my argument.  Not a single one.  

Yes, my position on Lamar has shifted based on performance and his ability to avoid the big hits.  As long as he keeps doing that its impossible to keep him out of the # 1 spot.  But you forget that even early on this season I had Lamar over both Allen and Rosen.  

My argument on Allen has nothing to do with emotion.  Mayfield, sure, because he's a douche.  But not Allen.  

Still waiting for your tangible points on why Allen belongs higher than # 5 on my list.  

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, 14 in Green said:

And yet it's the Mayfield haters who show those insecurities by starting these threads.

Maybe because Villain spent the entire offseason expressing his love for Baker and the Browns on a Jets board?  Probably something to do with it.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

I was with you mostly until Rosen.  He's definitely 5th right now....and may never move higher than that.  Yes, he's in a bad situation, but he got benched for Ryan Fitzpatrick who then breathed a little life into Miami and a comeback against the Redskins.

It's difficult to evaluate a QB on a team that's actively tanking.  

We KNOW for sure that Allen sucks (and always will suck), which is why he gets the bottom spot.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, 14 in Green said:

How does this using the QB ranking thing work exactly? People got upset with me for bringing up Darnold's '18 ranking in discussions last offseason. With others, like Allen and Jones it's a valid thing though?

I'm not knocking Darnold, I'm rooting for him to do well. I'd love to see him reel of 8 or nine wins this year. I just don't see how doing that and acknowledging that Mayfield, Allen and Jones, hell even a Kyler Murray or Luke Jackson are showing a lot of good things also bothers so many people. 

Murray and Lamar Jackson are indeed doing a lot of good things, and that doesn't bother me one iota.  

What bothers me is when people lump Mayfield, Allen and Jones into that category despite the current evidence against it.  

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, CTM said:

I like dvoa because it controls for level of opposition and does a better job measuring plays that contribute to wins 

Yep.  And per DVOA, entering this week, Mayfield was # 32 in DVOA.  Josh Allen was # 31.  Both barely ahead of Josh Rosen, at # 33.  Daniel Jones:  # 28.

Luke Falk, # 34.  Last on the list.  

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, CTM said:

Do we know? I mean im pretty sure but not many QBs that come out of college with Darnolds profile hit either. He was over 50%  likely to bust in qbase and Allen wasnt that much higher. Darnold was a lot closer to Allen than Mayfield 

I'm not saying Darnold definitely won't bust.  I AM saying Allen WILL bust.  

QBase is very helpful but of course there's no perfect tool.  QBase hated Deshaun Watson because he had a lot of talent around him at Clemson.  

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

How do you know that part?

 

Because QB's with accuracy issues in college and early in their NFL careers never correct those issues over time.  

You're either accurate or you're not, Allen is not, and history has been 100 % against inaccurate QB's.  Thus he'll always have to use other tools at his disposal, like running, to make up for it.  And by running all the time, he's constantly at risk to get his knees crushed.  

He's basically a very poor man's Cam Newton, with better running abilities.  Which sounds nice until you realize Cam only had 2 really good years in the league and his career is being cut short by injuries. 

And I say "very poor man's Cam" because Cam had a 182/102 TD:INT ratio.  Allen's poor accuracy is made worse by his even worse decision-making, which is another element to his game that will never really get better, much like it never got better for Mark Sanchez.  

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, CTM said:

Right but I just dont understand being 100% convinced Allen will bust and simultaneously being extremely optimistic on Darnold. Seems like the basis for the former should dampen the latter.

I am far more optimistic about Darnold but I don't have Allen at 0% chance either 

 

I'm optimistic about Darnold because he completed 65 % of his throws in college, and QBase may have been lower on Sam because of the talent he had around him (and of course his fewer college starts) rather than his actual performances.  

Allen has not one quality that should give anyone optimism.  Low QBase AND low college completion %.  No encouraging performances in the pros that didn't involve his legs.  Future injury risk, which is a virtual certainty given how reckless he tends to be.  None of it paints an optimistic picture.  

  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

 But I see also see a guy who can overcome some of that stuff with his big arm, big play ability and his running.

Problem is you really only do well against weak teams with that skillset.  The minute you go up against playoff defenses, Allen has and will continue to fall apart.  

Thus, the ceiling for the Bills under Allen will be the Wild Card and an early exit in the WC or Divisional Round.  And you need almost perfect surrounding circumstances to get that far (like the top 5 defense Buffalo has built around him currently).  Very Sanchezian, no?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Savage69 said:

You can't always go by college stats though.. Geno's last year he was over 70% and this guy(below) is in the HOF and some think he's the Goat..That's being said I think Sam is the real deal..:cheers:

    Passing
Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate
Career Notre Dame         268 515 52.0 4121 8.0 6.8 25 25 125.6
1975 Notre Dame Ind   QB 7 28 66 42.4 507 7.7 3.4 4 8 102.7
1977 Notre Dame Ind   QB 9 99 189 52.4 1604 8.5 7.7 11 8 134.4
1978 Notre Dame Ind   QB 11 141 260 54.2 2010 7.7 6.9 10 9 124.9

 

I'm not saying good college stats guarantee success.  Far from it.  I'm saying poor college stats, particularly when it comes to completion %, is a death knell for a prospect.  

It's like an SAT score.  Sure, a high score doesn't mean you'll succeed.  But you need a "bare minimum" SAT score to get into decent schools.  Without it, you never make the cut.  That's Josh Allen.  He doesn't have the "bare minimum" accuracy and decision-making requirements to truly be a success in the NFL.  

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Grandy said:

Imagine relying on Qbase for accurate projections when their top 2 QB's ever (Alex Smith, and Jared Goff) are glorified game managers, and they gave both Watson and Mahomes under a 10% chance to be elite. I mean, Joshua Dobbs has a higher ranking than both Watson, Darnold, and Wentz.

It's just as much a crapshoot as every other prospect ranking out there.

As stated previously, its far from a perfect tool, but its probably the best one we have that is readily available to the public.  

There are definitely better models out there that teams utilize but we're not aware of.  And still, in the end, they all get stuff wrong, because QB is such a complex position.  That's not a reason to completely dismiss it though.  You can't always go purely on the "eye test" and traditional scouting.  You need statistical models to help confirm or adjust your perspective on what you're seeing on tape.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, CTM said:

Imagine speaking so confidently about something you clearly know nothing about.

 

 

20191014_131544.jpg

 

Pretty damn good hit rate there.  I defy anyone to find someone who's evaluated QB's year in and year out and gotten it right  at a 70+ % clip.  

It's even more impressive when you look at the other end of the spectrum and look at QB's the model was able to "sniff out" as frauds.  Guys like Sanchez, Hackenberg, Ryan Tannehill, Josh Freeman, Kyle Boller, Jake Locker, Vick, Paxton Lynch, Osweiler, Ryan Leaf and so far they're looking spot on with Josh Allen.  

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites



Content Partnership

Yes Network

Site Sponsor

MILE-Social - NJ Social Media & SEO company
×
×
  • Create New...