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Rex: Baker Mayfield “overrated as hell”

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7 minutes ago, CTM said:

I like dvoa because it controls for level of opposition and does a better job measuring plays that contribute to wins 

Yep.  And per DVOA, entering this week, Mayfield was # 32 in DVOA.  Josh Allen was # 31.  Both barely ahead of Josh Rosen, at # 33.  Daniel Jones:  # 28.

Luke Falk, # 34.  Last on the list.  

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2 minutes ago, CTM said:

Do we know? I mean im pretty sure but not many QBs that come out of college with Darnolds profile hit either. He was over 50%  likely to bust in qbase and Allen wasnt that much higher. Darnold was a lot closer to Allen than Mayfield 

I'm not saying Darnold definitely won't bust.  I AM saying Allen WILL bust.  

QBase is very helpful but of course there's no perfect tool.  QBase hated Deshaun Watson because he had a lot of talent around him at Clemson.  

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11 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

How do you know that part?

 

Because QB's with accuracy issues in college and early in their NFL careers never correct those issues over time.  

You're either accurate or you're not, Allen is not, and history has been 100 % against inaccurate QB's.  Thus he'll always have to use other tools at his disposal, like running, to make up for it.  And by running all the time, he's constantly at risk to get his knees crushed.  

He's basically a very poor man's Cam Newton, with better running abilities.  Which sounds nice until you realize Cam only had 2 really good years in the league and his career is being cut short by injuries. 

And I say "very poor man's Cam" because Cam had a 182/102 TD:INT ratio.  Allen's poor accuracy is made worse by his even worse decision-making, which is another element to his game that will never really get better, much like it never got better for Mark Sanchez.  

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Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

I'm not saying Darnold definitely won't bust.  I AM saying Allen WILL bust.  

QBase is very helpful but of course there's no perfect tool.  QBase hated DeShaun Watson because he had a lot of talent around him at Clemson.  

Right but I just dont understand being 100% convinced Allen will bust and simultaneously being extremely optimistic on Darnold. Seems like the basis for the former should dampen the latter.

I am far more optimistic about Darnold but I don't have Allen at 0% chance either 

 

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4 minutes ago, CTM said:

Right but I just dont understand being 100% convinced Allen will bust and simultaneously being extremely optimistic on Darnold. Seems like the basis for the former should dampen the latter.

I am far more optimistic about Darnold but I don't have Allen at 0% chance either 

 

I'm optimistic about Darnold because he completed 65 % of his throws in college, and QBase may have been lower on Sam because of the talent he had around him (and of course his fewer college starts) rather than his actual performances.  

Allen has not one quality that should give anyone optimism.  Low QBase AND low college completion %.  No encouraging performances in the pros that didn't involve his legs.  Future injury risk, which is a virtual certainty given how reckless he tends to be.  None of it paints an optimistic picture.  

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19 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Because QB's with accuracy issues in college and early in their NFL careers never correct those issues over time.  

You're either accurate or you're not, Allen is not, and history has been 100 % against inaccurate QB's.  Thus he'll always have to use other tools at his disposal, like running, to make up for it.  And by running all the time, he's constantly at risk to get his knees crushed.  

He's basically a very poor man's Cam Newton, with better running abilities.  Which sounds nice until you realize Cam only had 2 really good years in the league and his career is being cut short by injuries. 

And I say "very poor man's Cam" because Cam had a 182/102 TD:INT ratio.  Allen's poor accuracy is made worse by his even worse decision-making, which is another element to his game that will never really get better, much like it never got better for Mark Sanchez.  

Good post!  I agree on the accuracy point and I've heard that from at least half a dozen NFL scouts and commentators.  Allen could tweak his accuracy and slightly improve it, but he likely can't take a leap with it.   But I think that's always been known about Allen.  He's not the most accurate guy.  What I've come around on with him is that he can make plays, both with his arm and his legs.  His accuracy and sometimes carelessness with the football (INTs, fumbles) would be maddening to me as a fan if he was the Jets QB.  But I see also see a guy who can overcome some of that stuff with his big arm, big play ability and his running.

I think we can agree on what he is.  A big bodied, big armed QB who can run but will never be more than mediocre as an intermediate/efficient passer.  I also think his running will do to him what it's doing to Cam unfortunately, leading to injuries (we saw the concussion) and shortening a career.  I'd still put him above Rosen in that group of 5 and while guys like Lamar and Darnold are ascending we're seeing Baker regress.

This group of 5 is going to be very, very interesting to watch over the coming years....a lot like the Elway, Marino, O'Brien, Kelly group.

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22 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I'm optimistic about Darnold because he completed 65 % of his throws in college, and QBase may have been lower on Sam because of the talent he had around him (and of course his fewer college starts) rather than his actual performances.  

Allen has not one quality that should give anyone optimism.  Low QBase AND low college completion %.  No encouraging performances in the pros that didn't involve his legs.  Future injury risk, which is a virtual certainty given how reckless he tends to be.  None of it paints an optimistic picture.  

You can't always go by college stats though.. Geno's last year he was over 70% and this guy(below) is in the HOF and some think he's the Goat..That's being said I think Sam is the real deal..:cheers:

    Passing
Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate
Career Notre Dame         268 515 52.0 4121 8.0 6.8 25 25 125.6
1975 Notre Dame Ind   QB 7 28 66 42.4 507 7.7 3.4 4 8 102.7
1977 Notre Dame Ind   QB 9 99 189 52.4 1604 8.5 7.7 11 8 134.4
1978 Notre Dame Ind   QB 11 141 260 54.2 2010 7.7 6.9 10 9 124.9

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Imagine relying on Qbase for accurate projections when their top 2 QB's ever (Alex Smith, and Jared Goff) are glorified game managers, and they gave both Watson and Mahomes under a 10% chance to be elite. I mean, Joshua Dobbs has a higher ranking than both Watson, Darnold, and Wentz.

It's just as much a crapshoot as every other prospect ranking out there.

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2 minutes ago, Grandy said:

Imagine relying on Qbase for accurate projections when their top 2 QB's ever (Alex Smith, and Jared Goff) are glorified game managers, and they gave both Watson and Mahomes under a 10% chance to be elite. I mean, Joshua Dobbs has a higher ranking than both Watson, Darnold, and Wentz.

It's just as much a crapshoot as every other prospect ranking out there.

Imagine speaking so confidently about something you clearly know nothing about.

 

 

20191014_131544.jpg

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18 minutes ago, CTM said:

Imagine speaking so confidently about something you clearly know nothing about.

 

 

20191014_131544.jpg

I'll admit I was wrong about the Goff/Smith tidbit, but Dobbs> Watson is still a thing on there.

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28 minutes ago, CTM said:

Imagine speaking so confidently about something you clearly know nothing about.

 

 

20191014_131544.jpg

To me, this list looks like a better predictor than most that I've seen.  7 of those 10 QBs have turned out to be undeniably excellent.  There's a boatload of Super Bowl appearances, SB wins and Pro Bowlers there.  The 3 who are questionable are Mayfield (too early to tell IMO), and Mariota and Leftwich who aren't busts but clearly aren't good starters.

Question - It says 1997-2017.  Does that include Baker Mayfield's 2017 college season even as he was drafted in 2018?  I'm assuming so.

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The guy who quite honestly could be the most "overrated as hell" looks to be Freddy Kitchens.  I heard someone on NFL Network this morning reminding everyone that Freddy ascent has been very quick.  He was the Running Backs coach, leading a group of 4 people.  He now has command of 53 men and 3 phases of football on a team with high expectations.  It's looking like he could be in over his head although they did give a Seattle a good run yesterday.

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3 hours ago, 14 in Green said:

Let me start by saying Darnold looked terrific yesterday. I know you guys don't want to hear it, but I've been agreeing with @SAR I the last two weeks that if Sam came back, the Jets are going on a playoff run. 9-7 is a strong possibility, 8-8 seems more likely to me though.

Ok, now that that's out of the way, Mayfield and Darnold had about the same game yesterday. Against a better team, Mayfield had just as good a first half as Darnold did. He led the Browns to 3 scores the first 3 times they had the ball.

Like Darnold he had a really good drive in the 4th quarter. Mayfield's gave the Browns the lead, Darnold's extended the Jets lead to 8. Both teams defenses were reeling late. The Browns allowed Wilson to drive downfield and get the win, the Jets did the same, but came up big on the 2 point conversion to get the win.

That said, Mayfield and the Browns have been struggling this year, no doubt. I said during the offseason I'd have kept GW as the HC, but I'll always give Dorsey the benefit of the doubt. It doesn't look good right now for Kitchens, nobody cares that he's a rookie HC, he needs to get this team rolling. I'm sticking with him and Baker and I'm still of the opinion they'll end up with 9 or 10 wins.

Now comes the fun part, throwing some red meat to the lions, LOL. After yesterday, here's how I'm ranking the '18 QB class so far:

1. Lamar Jackson. He's everything the JN geniuses said he wasn't. Talented, exciting, and he's winning. The kid is a highlight reel who's taken a big step forward this year.

2. Josh Allen. Tough, great arm, turns the ball over more then you want, but he's clearly trending up. His 4th Quarter comebacks show he has the clutch gene. He went to the right team, in the right city. If he keeps working, and improving, watch out for the Bills.

3. Mayfield. I'm being hard on him here, but he deserves it. He's so good I don't grade him with the curve I do the others. He has to step up and overcome his team's shortcomings, and he has to take better care of the ball. That said, his body of work so far, and Darnold's inability to stay on the field keeps him comfortably ahead of Sam at this point.

4. Darnold. Like I said, terrific game yesterday. He's finally back in the conversation. Sam has as much talent as any of these guys, he's just got to stay on the field, and keep getting better. It's all right there for him. He has the chance to be a star if he takes advantage. It's probably too late to save the season, but if he plays well the Jets still have a chance for 8 or 9 wins with the cup cake schedule they have after the Patriots.

5. Rosen. The poor guy.... :rolleyes: 

I have noticed, that you watch Football games and come away with much different conclusions, like, we're watching different games type of conclusions. 

I dont think my head stopped shaking back and forth sideways through this entire post.  

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19 minutes ago, JiF said:

I have noticed, that you watch Football games and come away with much different conclusions, like, we're watching different games type of conclusions. 

I dont think my head stopped shaking back and forth sideways through this entire post.  

Hmmm, I'm at a loss here, and now I'm shaking MY head.... Did I pump up Darnold's performance too much? I thought my post was incredibly astute actually. I also thought it was fair, balanced and insightful. It just goes to show, you can't please everybody.  😥

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It probably doesn't matter for the actual games...

But it sure does feel like the defenses Mayfield goes up against have an extra gear because of all the jabbering he does... Defenses love to humble guys and his quotes and attitude must make for great locker room fuel for opponents in the week leading up to a game.

Last year and in college we heard about how is attitude is a part of his game. It's a part of what makes him successful when it works... But it also puts an extra chip on the defenses shoulder. 

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2 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

 But I see also see a guy who can overcome some of that stuff with his big arm, big play ability and his running.

Problem is you really only do well against weak teams with that skillset.  The minute you go up against playoff defenses, Allen has and will continue to fall apart.  

Thus, the ceiling for the Bills under Allen will be the Wild Card and an early exit in the WC or Divisional Round.  And you need almost perfect surrounding circumstances to get that far (like the top 5 defense Buffalo has built around him currently).  Very Sanchezian, no?

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2 hours ago, Savage69 said:

You can't always go by college stats though.. Geno's last year he was over 70% and this guy(below) is in the HOF and some think he's the Goat..That's being said I think Sam is the real deal..:cheers:

    Passing
Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate
Career Notre Dame         268 515 52.0 4121 8.0 6.8 25 25 125.6
1975 Notre Dame Ind   QB 7 28 66 42.4 507 7.7 3.4 4 8 102.7
1977 Notre Dame Ind   QB 9 99 189 52.4 1604 8.5 7.7 11 8 134.4
1978 Notre Dame Ind   QB 11 141 260 54.2 2010 7.7 6.9 10 9 124.9

 

I'm not saying good college stats guarantee success.  Far from it.  I'm saying poor college stats, particularly when it comes to completion %, is a death knell for a prospect.  

It's like an SAT score.  Sure, a high score doesn't mean you'll succeed.  But you need a "bare minimum" SAT score to get into decent schools.  Without it, you never make the cut.  That's Josh Allen.  He doesn't have the "bare minimum" accuracy and decision-making requirements to truly be a success in the NFL.  

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1 hour ago, Grandy said:

Imagine relying on Qbase for accurate projections when their top 2 QB's ever (Alex Smith, and Jared Goff) are glorified game managers, and they gave both Watson and Mahomes under a 10% chance to be elite. I mean, Joshua Dobbs has a higher ranking than both Watson, Darnold, and Wentz.

It's just as much a crapshoot as every other prospect ranking out there.

As stated previously, its far from a perfect tool, but its probably the best one we have that is readily available to the public.  

There are definitely better models out there that teams utilize but we're not aware of.  And still, in the end, they all get stuff wrong, because QB is such a complex position.  That's not a reason to completely dismiss it though.  You can't always go purely on the "eye test" and traditional scouting.  You need statistical models to help confirm or adjust your perspective on what you're seeing on tape.  

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1 hour ago, CTM said:

Imagine speaking so confidently about something you clearly know nothing about.

 

 

20191014_131544.jpg

 

Pretty damn good hit rate there.  I defy anyone to find someone who's evaluated QB's year in and year out and gotten it right  at a 70+ % clip.  

It's even more impressive when you look at the other end of the spectrum and look at QB's the model was able to "sniff out" as frauds.  Guys like Sanchez, Hackenberg, Ryan Tannehill, Josh Freeman, Kyle Boller, Jake Locker, Vick, Paxton Lynch, Osweiler, Ryan Leaf and so far they're looking spot on with Josh Allen.  

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29 minutes ago, greenwichjetfan said:

I’d say you’re definitely holding Baker to a different standard.

The below are a few of the things that he’s been so good at this year. He’s even leading the league in one category, and ahead of a 2-time SB MVP in another!
 

CEF161E4-CB89-43A0-B875-A124F097C6FC.thumb.jpeg.2e07757f12dbf6f90772389c5fbf725f.jpeg

Yeah, but I mean...he has “moxy” in spades.

Nobody can take that away from him.

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1 hour ago, jetstream23 said:

To me, this list looks like a better predictor than most that I've seen.  7 of those 10 QBs have turned out to be undeniably excellent.  There's a boatload of Super Bowl appearances, SB wins and Pro Bowlers there.  The 3 who are questionable are Mayfield (too early to tell IMO), and Mariota and Leftwich who aren't busts but clearly aren't good starters.

Question - It says 1997-2017.  Does that include Baker Mayfield's 2017 college season even as he was drafted in 2018?  I'm assuming so.

Its also great at the other end, flagging guys like Hackenberg as undraftable.

This was through the 17 cfb season, so it includes Baker senior year

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31 minutes ago, greenwichjetfan said:

I’d say you’re definitely holding Baker to a different standard.

The below are a few of the things that he’s been so good at this year. He’s even leading the league in one category, and ahead of a 2-time SB MVP in another!
 

CEF161E4-CB89-43A0-B875-A124F097C6FC.thumb.jpeg.2e07757f12dbf6f90772389c5fbf725f.jpeg

Josh Allen also has a lower comp% than Luke Falk. 

Mayfield balled out in a big win against the Ravens but has otherwise really sucked this year. Take that one game out of the equation and he's in Rosen territory. Is this a sophomore slump? Or is this an RGIII drop to permanent mediocrity? 

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7 minutes ago, Untouchable said:

Yeah, but I mean...he has “moxy” in spades.

Nobody can take that away from him.

"Refs are never an excuse, but they were pretty bad today"

dat moxy doe...

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1 hour ago, 14 in Green said:

Hmmm, I'm at a loss here, and now I'm shaking MY head.... Did I pump up Darnold's performance too much? I thought my post was incredibly astute actually. I also thought it was fair, balanced and insightful. It just goes to show, you can't please everybody.  😥

Maybe, just maybe, your posts aren't based in reality nearly as closely as you'd like to think they are?

Nearly every word in that post JiF was responding to was inaccurate, and that's not hyperbole.  And no matter how many people point this out to you, you're less likely to change and more likely to get defensive.  It's not on everybody else to change their perspective.

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2 minutes ago, slats said:

Josh Allen also has a lower comp% than Luke Falk. 

Mayfield balled out in a big win against the Ravens but has otherwise really sucked this year. Take that one game out of the equation and he's in Rosen territory. Is this a sophomore slump? Or is this an RGIII drop to permanent mediocrity? 

I didn't watch the game, but the highlights were all about Nick Chubb. Raw stats also point more to him managing the game rather than "balled out". Out of 40 points, he accounted for 1 total TD and still had an INT. Meanwhile, Nick Chubb had 165 yards (8.25 ypc) and 3 TDs.

I think the real issue is that he hasn't woken up feeling dangerous yet this season.

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54 minutes ago, greenwichjetfan said:

I’d say you’re definitely holding Baker to a different standard.

The below are a few of the things that he’s been so good at this year. He’s even leading the league in one category, and ahead of a 2-time SB MVP in another!
 

CEF161E4-CB89-43A0-B875-A124F097C6FC.thumb.jpeg.2e07757f12dbf6f90772389c5fbf725f.jpeg

Lets be honest here, this was never the day to argue Baker's merits.

You guys were having a field day piling on him (rightfully so the way he played yesterday). I just figured the narrative needed to be changed, and with one post, boom. We're talking about Josh Allen.

Now I just have to figure out a way to throw you off your game, Greenwich.

LOL. You're a stubborn SOB. 😉

cc @JiF and @Jetsfan80

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3 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Yep.  And per DVOA, entering this week, Mayfield was # 32 in DVOA.  Josh Allen was # 31.  Both barely ahead of Josh Rosen, at # 33.  Daniel Jones:  # 28.

Luke Falk, # 34.  Last on the list.  

And then compare Baker's supporting cast to each of those guys. 

Surprised at how much he's struggling right now

 

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Baker made himself a target for ridicule if his game ever dropped off.  I believe he had complete confidence that it would never happen.  Now he's got to reap what he sowed.  He may turn it back around but a little humility probably wasn't a bad thing for him.  

What I'm waiting for is the almost inevitable OBJ meltdown if this doesn't turn around in another few weeks.  Now there's a guy I have no sympathy for whatsoever.  And no matter how many times they put him in scenes on Ballers, he can't act.

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6 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

And then compare Baker's supporting cast to each of those guys. 

Surprised at how much he's struggling right now

 

To be fair, DVOA takes into account supporting cast.  Hence why its a pretty useful tool. 

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Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

To be fair, DVOA takes into account supporting cast.  Hence why its a pretty useful tool. 

Oh, right on. Totally forgot that. 

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