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greenwichjetfan

Statistical comps for Darnold's MNF debacle

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For perspective: Darnold wasn't my #1 QB in that draft, I hated the Sanchez & Geno picks, Hack was always an afterthought, and the only QB I've ever really liked in a Jets uniform was the first 11 games of the Favre year.

Then I fell for Sam like I've never fell for a Jets QB before. Like everyone else, I was pumped for this game. This was the game Darnold was going to show off.

As I'm watching the game last night, two things become abundantly clear:

     (1) I should have stuck to my guns regarding Gase. I hated the hire when it happened, but by the end of preseason I had done a full 180 and actually started to like him. However, last night was the final nail in the coffin. No more "3rd string QB" excuses. The guy is a continuation of everything he's ever been outside of the Peyton years: a complete joke.

     (2) Sam will never be what I had convinced myself he'd become: a FQB who would play January and February games for the Jets for the next decade+. There was no way that any FQB ever had a game like Sam did last night.

===================================

Today I started thinking about that second point a bit more, and I decided to do just a little bit of research. What I found is pretty interesting:

image.thumb.png.88fdf6ee21e632e533b606dce0e4ca9d.png

No, I'm not saying that Sam will ever live up to the careers that the above players have enjoyed, nor am I saying that last night was ok because, "well it happens." All I'm saying is that I was surprised by the results, and if nothing else, at least I feel a bit better knowing that even some of the top QBs in the league have had clunkers like Sam either early in their career or while they were in their prime.

For the purposes of this thread, I've left the names off. Feel free to comment on which QB belongs to each stat line.

 

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23 minutes ago, greenwichjetfan said:

For perspective: Darnold wasn't my #1 QB in that draft, I hated the Sanchez & Geno picks, Hack was always an afterthought, and the only QB I've ever really liked in a Jets uniform was the first 11 games of the Favre year.

Then I fell for Sam like I've never fell for a Jets QB before. Like everyone else, I was pumped for this game. This was the game Darnold was going to show off.

As I'm watching the game last night, two things become abundantly clear:

     (1) I should have stuck to my guns regarding Gase. I hated the hire when it happened, but by the end of preseason I had done a full 180 and actually started to like him. However, last night was the final nail in the coffin. No more "3rd string QB" excuses. The guy is a continuation of everything he's ever been outside of the Peyton years: a complete joke.

     (2) Sam will never be what I had convinced myself he'd become: a FQB who would play January and February games for the Jets for the next decade+. There was no way that any FQB ever had a game like Sam did last night.

===================================

Today I started thinking about that second point a bit more, and I decided to do just a little bit of research. What I found is pretty interesting:

image.thumb.png.88fdf6ee21e632e533b606dce0e4ca9d.png

No, I'm not saying that Sam will ever live up to the careers that the above players have enjoyed, nor am I saying that last night was ok because, "well it happens." All I'm saying is that I was surprised by the results, and if nothing else, at least I feel a bit better knowing that even some of the top QBs in the league have had clunkers like Sam either early in their career or while they were in their prime.

For the purposes of this thread, I've left the names off. Feel free to comment on which QB belongs to each stat line.

 

aw shoot, NAME NAMES already....

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3 minutes ago, CTM said:

Making any definitive conclusion based on 1 game is silly. All QB's have terrible games.  Same goes in reverse, nobody should really be convinced that Sam is a surefire elite QB either.

The kids been up and down which was what we all should've been expecting. He's got loads of talent but gea not very good at the more mundane aspects of the job.

This sounds more applicable to Allen than it does Darnold tbh. Darnold's best comp right now is Jameis. Neither are overly gifted passers, but both possess that subtle mobility in the pocket that allows them to play some sandlot. They also both throw the ball up for grabs while under pressure. 

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11 minutes ago, CTM said:

Making any definitive conclusion based on 1 game is silly. All QB's have terrible games.  Same goes in reverse, nobody should really be convinced that Sam is a surefire elite QB either.

The kids been up and down which was what we all should've been expecting. He's got loads of talent that shows up on the field often,  but hes not very good at the more mundane aspects of the job that are more important for consistant high level play 

Of course, but while watching the game last night, I was more emotional than rational - which is why I went back and looked for comps. What I found was reassuring. It doesn't speak to what Darnold will be in the future, but it feels better to know that even the 'crème de la crème' have had games like last night.

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2 minutes ago, greenwichjetfan said:

It doesn't speak to what Darnold will be in the future, but it feels better to know that even the 'crème de la crème' have had games like last night.

you still wont give the names?

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3 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

you still wont give the names?

I figured someone would have played along and tried to guess, but here:

image.thumb.png.4fa1be26bceb2996c52381ca29dc7cf3.png

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1 minute ago, greenwichjetfan said:

I figured someone would have played along and tried to guess, but here:

image.thumb.png.4fa1be26bceb2996c52381ca29dc7cf3.png

fanx!

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Jets fans seem to have this idea of what they think Darnold is or what he will be. The reality is that he’s not imo going to be this elite quarterback Jets fans are hoping for. I see him being a middle of the pack qb that we can win with

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7 minutes ago, greenwichjetfan said:

I figured someone would have played along and tried to guess, but here:

image.thumb.png.4fa1be26bceb2996c52381ca29dc7cf3.png

While somewhat encouraging, I guess, if you're like, really desperate for encouragement and want to stretch really for to find it in this somewhere but dude, that was hands down the worst QB performance I've ever seen in my entire life.  Gase, his OL, his WR's, nobody helped him but still, that was beyond comprehension bad.

As usual, it's never as bad or as good as you think it is and Sam isnt that bad of a QB but it gives me no hope because that wasnt a test of talent, that was a test of mental fortitude and he was seeing Ghosts.  Cali boy cant handle it.  Shame.  He's got some ridiculous talent but the mental game, I'm not sure you can teach that.  You either got it or you dont. 

 

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The scary thing about that list is that the next lowest yardage total on that list is still 33 yards more than Darnold had last night.  His YPA were atrocious and his adjusted ypa were in the negative.

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1 minute ago, #27TheDominator said:

The scary thing about that list is that the next lowest yardage total on that list is still 33 yards more than Darnold had last night.  His YPA were atrocious and his adjusted ypa were in the negative.

His AY/A is the worst of the bunch which is obviously scary, but also consistent with what we saw on the field.

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1 minute ago, #27TheDominator said:

The scary thing about that list is that the next lowest yardage total on that list is still 33 yards more than Darnold had last night.  His YPA were atrocious and his adjusted ypa were in the negative.

All were also established starters besides Elway

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8 minutes ago, JiF said:

While somewhat encouraging, I guess, if you're like, really desperate for encouragement and want to stretch really for to find it in this somewhere but dude, that was hands down the worst QB performance I've ever seen in my entire life.  Gase, his OL, his WR's, nobody helped him but still, that was beyond comprehension bad.

As usual, it's never as bad or as good as you think it is and Sam isnt that bad of a QB but it gives me no hope because that wasnt a test of talent, that was a test of mental fortitude and he was seeing Ghosts.  Cali boy cant handle it.  Shame.  He's got some ridiculous talent but the mental game, I'm not sure you can teach that.  You either got it or you dont. 

 

Yes, it's the worst I've ever seen which is why I was really upset last night. That said, I'd be interested in seeing defense adjusted stats for that group, as I know for a fact that none of those games were against a belichick defense, especially one which is currently rewriting record books for pass defensed efficiencies. Also, I'm positive none of them had a goon like Gase as their HC/OC.

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10 minutes ago, greenwichjetfan said:

Yes, it's the worst I've ever seen which is why I was really upset last night. That said, I'd be interested in seeing defense adjusted stats for that group, as I know for a fact that none of those games were against a belichick defense, especially one which is currently rewriting record books for pass defensed efficiencies. Also, I'm positive none of them had a goon like Gase as their HC/OC.

Another comparison would be to a QB that played the same team on same team as Sam just a few weeks ago! lol

 

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One thing that is making sams putrid stats look even more putrid is that the pats had PI on essentially all his “big plays” he really probably should have completed 3-5 more passes for 50-100 more yards

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13 minutes ago, greenwichjetfan said:

Yes, it's the worst I've ever seen which is why I was really upset last night. That said, I'd be interested in seeing defense adjusted stats for that group, as I know for a fact that none of those games were against a belichick defense, especially one which is currently rewriting record books for pass defensed efficiencies. Also, I'm positive none of them had a goon like Gase as their HC/OC.

I too would like to see the Jets continue to lose games because a bunch of dudes caught feels for a sweaty ginger with three chins.

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8 minutes ago, JiF said:

Another comparison would be to a QB that played the same team on same team as Sam just a few weeks ago! lol

 

lol good call! Luke's AY/A is the best of the bunch:

image.thumb.png.24ea38cb358a749104e9e70dbc27f397.png

...but it's also clear that belichick sold out to stop the run in week 3 which allowed Luke a slightly better YPA (unadjusted):

image.png.b473569e100890131826d0dffd158b75.png

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17 minutes ago, Miss Lonelyhearts said:

I too would like to see the Jets continue to lose games because a bunch of dudes caught feels for a sweaty ginger with three chins.

HEY EVERYBODYYYYYYY: ATEN THINKS ABOUT A BUNCH OF DUDES FEELING UP SWEATY GINGERS WITH THREE CHINS, AND CONFLATES THAT WITH A FAN'S ABILITY TO INFLUENCE WINS AND LOSSES IN THE NFL, AND THEN POSTS ABOUT IT ON AN INTERNET JETS FAN FORUM!!

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I saw a stat last night on ESPN that said Sam's rating last night was the lowest of ANY QB since 1990. That's 20 years. 

Think about that.

I'm amazed how a QB could look so good in the first half against a pretty good Dallas defense, and then sh*t the bed the way he did in his next game.

 

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1 hour ago, Matt39 said:

This sounds more applicable to Allen than it does Darnold tbh. Darnold's best comp right now is Jameis. Neither are overly gifted passers, but both possess that subtle mobility in the pocket that allows them to play some sandlot. They also both throw the ball up for grabs while under pressure. 

Allen has accuracy issues and for all intents and purposes that eliminates him from consideration. Darnold I agree is a good sandlot guy and can make plays a guy like Brady never could, all of the other stuff is where his lack of experiance really shows up.

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34 minutes ago, Ghost420 said:

Didn't brees have a 5 int game last yr? 

4. against Miami.

That was the one where nico told us Sam was actually helping the team, because they were like good punts....

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36 minutes ago, nico002 said:

One thing that is making sams putrid stats look even more putrid is that the pats had PI on essentially all his “big plays” he really probably should have completed 3-5 more passes for 50-100 more yards

what? I remember questionable PI calls that took Darnold incompletions off the tally

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It was the single worst performance I've personally ever seen an NFL pro QB make.

I truly hope this one game doesn't break the kids soul, and that he can bounce back from it.

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Just now, Warfish said:

It was the single worst performance I've personally ever seen an NFL pro QB make.

I truly hope this one game doesn't break the kinds soul, and that he can bounce back from it.

eh. Sanchez going 10/29 with 5 ints when his RB's had over 300 yards was worse.

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4 minutes ago, 14 in Green said:

4. against Miami.

That was the one where nico told us Sam was actually helping the team, because they were like good punts....

The nicco snide notwithstanding, @Ghost420 was asking about Brees, and the answer is no. In fact, the last time Brees had a multi-int game was week 7 of the 2017 season.

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10 minutes ago, greenwichjetfan said:

HEY EVERYBODYYYYYYY: ATEN THINKS ABOUT A BUNCH OF DUDES FEELING UP SWEATY GINGERS WITH THREE CHINS, AND CONFLATES THAT WITH A FAN'S ABILITY TO INFLUENCE WINS AND LOSSES IN THE NFL, AND THEN POSTS ABOUT IT ON AN INTERNET JETS FAN FORUM!!

Fans absolutely have the ability to influence wins and losses in the NFL. It takes about a win a month and a firing every couple of years to keep the derpy homer sycophants happy 95% of the time. If it took more than that, they'd do it. Things would be different if people like you had the capacity to differentiate between hope and expectation. If jargon wasn't seen as gospel and quantitative analysis as tantamount to witchcraft. If we all got our collective head around the notion that games are won and lost for actual reasons and that all hot takes selected basically at random are not presumptively equally valid. Squaring the names you love with the results you don't while skirting the issue of whether you have any idea what you're talking about necessarily entails letting the team off the hook too. The Jets need a quarterback and you don't want them to keep looking for one. That's why we're not going to have one two years from now. Not because Patriots. Not because Gase. Because you. You and your abiding love for sweet, sweet Sammy.

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1 hour ago, RutgersJetFan said:

Just ran a regression and found it's statistically equivalent to the Battle of Agincourt.

You had to bring that up?

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7 minutes ago, Miss Lonelyhearts said:

Fans absolutely have the ability to influence wins and losses in the NFL. It takes about a win a month and a firing every couple of years to keep the derpy homer sycophants happy 95% of the time. If it took more than that, they'd do it. Things would be different if people like you had the capacity to differentiate between hope and expectation. If jargon wasn't seen as gospel and quantitative analysis as tantamount to witchcraft. If we all got our collective head around the notion that games are won and lost for actual reasons and that all hot takes selected basically at random are not presumptively equally valid. Squaring the names you love with the results you don't while skirting the issue of whether you have any idea what you're talking about necessarily entails letting the team off the hook too. The Jets need a quarterback and you don't want them to keep looking for one. That's why we're not going to have one two years from now. Not because Patriots. Not because Gase. Because you. You and your abiding love for sweet, sweet Sammy.

tl;dr. Any mention of your love for sweaty gingers? 

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57 minutes ago, Ghost420 said:

Didn't brees have a 5 int game last yr? 

Yes but we know he’s a good qb so it’s okay. 

We don’t know what Sam is, sooooo it’s not ok. 

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