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Baldy's Breakdown - Leo Williams vs. Pats


Barry McCockinner
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Leo's problem is being drafted so high as to not meet the high expectations - if he were to be taken in the lower part of the 1st round, there would be praises because he does make the DL more prominent - he can make the difference.  I've noticed it when he is not on the field.

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The fact that Leo is still a Jet shows what Douglas thinks about him.  They're not going to take a ridiculous offer like the ones constantly proposed on this board.  It's going to take a good return. 

If they thought he was anywhere near the JAG so many seem to think he is then it would be absurd to risk an injury by playing him against the J-Ville.  They would have just taken a deal by now.

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2 hours ago, Pac said:

The fact that Leo is still a Jet shows what Douglas thinks about him.  They're not going to take a ridiculous offer like the ones constantly proposed on this board.  It's going to take a good return. 

If they thought he was anywhere near the JAG so many seem to think he is then it would be absurd to risk an injury by playing him against the J-Ville.  They would have just taken a deal by now.

yep.  he probably gets them a 3rd rounder if he signs elsewhere in free agency.

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31 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

We're going to be buyers in free agency.  We won't get any comp picks out of Leo.  

Why can’t people understand this about comp picks? We need a sticky or something on how they work. It’s constantly coming up and if we did automatically get the comp pick, it would make sense to keep Leo but that’s not how it works at all. 

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35 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

We're going to be buyers in free agency.  We won't get any comp picks out of Leo.  

You keep saying this like you know this for a fact.  If this is true then we apparently have an idiot for a GM who doesn't understand how it all works.  You guys should warn him.

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3 hours ago, Pac said:

The fact that Leo is still a Jet shows what Douglas thinks about him.  They're not going to take a ridiculous offer like the ones constantly proposed on this board.  It's going to take a good return. 

If they thought he was anywhere near the JAG so many seem to think he is then it would be absurd to risk an injury by playing him against the J-Ville.  They would have just taken a deal by now.

So we let him go as an UFA and get nothing other than a potential comp pick? And we'd have to restrict the number of UFAs we sign to even have shot at a comp pick. Either give him a  new contract or trade him for a pick. But under NO circumstances do you let him play out the season and then walk. 

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You keep saying this like you know this for a fact.  If this is true then we apparently have an idiot for a GM who doesn't understand how it all works.  You guys should warn him.


Well you guys don’t want to trade any players for picks, so what choice do we have but to be buyers? We need at least 3 new OL, a WR, 1-2 Corners and 1-2 EDGE rushers. Think those are all coming from the draft?
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6 hours ago, Rangers9 said:

Well the question is do they want to re-sign him and pay market for him. Or do they take moderate compensation now. 

The key question is....what's the market price for him?

I'd keep him and pay him like the 6th best player on our defense, a run-stuffing DT who occasionally pressures the QB.  But I wouldn't pay him like a Top 10 interior DLineman in the NFL, certainly nothing even close to Donald, Fletcher Cox, Grady Jarrett or even Hicks ($12M per year), etc.

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10 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

We're going to be buyers in free agency.  We won't get any comp picks out of Leo.  

thanks for the correction.  admittedly i know very little about the compensation of draft picks if they lose free agents.  the other point is they would picking at the bottom of the round.  it makes a lot more sense to trade away the players they know they will not re-sign after this season. 

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5 minutes ago, rangerous said:

thanks for the correction.  admittedly i know very little about the compensation of draft picks if they lose free agents.  the other point is they would picking at the bottom of the round.  it makes a lot more sense to trade away the players they know they will not re-sign after this season. 

You finally see the light! But seriously, it’s important to understand how comp picks work because people would sound crazy for trading certain players otherwise. I feel like that causes a lot of uneccessary arguing because 1 side is not properly factoring in that we don’t automatically get a comp pick simply for losing a player. You have to be strategic and dump certain players at the right time. 

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13 hours ago, Bomberjet said:

Leo's problem is being drafted so high as to not meet the high expectations - if he were to be taken in the lower part of the 1st round, there would be praises because he does make the DL more prominent - he can make the difference.  I've noticed it when he is not on the field.

Leo is not productive. He doesn’t do anything. He shouldn’t have been a top 10 pick. In fact, he shouldn’t have been drafted until the 4th round. 

He is a BUST. 

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25 minutes ago, Creepy Lurker said:

You finally see the light! But seriously, it’s important to understand how comp picks work because people would sound crazy for trading certain players otherwise. I feel like that causes a lot of uneccessary arguing because 1 side is not properly factoring in that we don’t automatically get a comp pick simply for losing a player. You have to be strategic and dump certain players at the right time. 

Not to mention the comp pick would not be until 2021 so you'd have to wait an entire year after Leo leaves before recouping anything. I don't believe we want to resign Leo, it would be a mistake to hold onto him and get nothing in return when he leaves.

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40 minutes ago, Ghost said:

Leo is not productive. He doesn’t do anything. He shouldn’t have been a top 10 pick. In fact, he shouldn’t have been drafted until the 4th round. 

He is a BUST. 

not meeting fan expectations doesn't mean he's a bust.  i don't think any player who starts for 5 seasons is a bust.  going back to when he was drafted, the team already had wilky and shelly and those essentially played the same position.  had mac not given wilky such a large contract, maybe leo would've made more sense.  and those 3 guys did play pretty well during leo's rookie season.

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15 hours ago, Pac said:

The fact that Leo is still a Jet shows what Douglas thinks about him.  They're not going to take a ridiculous offer like the ones constantly proposed on this board.  It's going to take a good return. 

If they thought he was anywhere near the JAG so many seem to think he is then it would be absurd to risk an injury by playing him against the J-Ville.  They would have just taken a deal by now.

Yeah well Douglas hasn’t extended him either. That also tells us something about what Douglas thinks of him. 

The main reason he hasn’t taken a better offer is surely because no one has made such an offer yet. That’s further telling us what other teams think of him.

Douglas is likely hoping that, given enough teams have inquired about him, that one of them will come in with a last minute offer that beats them all, with lower risk that each one of them will tell us to forget it b/c they already made a move or changed their mind. Hopefully we can pry a lower-half 2nd rounder off a playoff contender. I tend to think if anyone was offering that up that he’d be moved already, but we’ll see.

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4 minutes ago, rangerous said:

not meeting fan expectations doesn't mean he's a bust.  i don't think any player who starts for 5 seasons is a bust.  going back to when he was drafted, the team already had wilky and shelly and those essentially played the same position.  had mac not given wilky such a large contract, maybe leo would've made more sense.  and those 3 guys did play pretty well during leo's rookie season.

DRob started for 5 seasons. Think he even won a DPOTW once. He was still a bust. Are there bigger busts? Yes.

I think Leo is more along the lines of relative bust. There are lots of those in the league. Just hurts more when we’ve taken one this high up.

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1 hour ago, bla bla bla said:

Not to mention the comp pick would not be until 2021 so you'd have to wait an entire year after Leo leaves before recouping anything. I don't believe we want to resign Leo, it would be a mistake to hold onto him and get nothing in return when he leaves.

Yep.

The typical trade value you’re alluding to translates to a full round later in 2020. So if we got a 4th round comp pick for him, that’d have the trade value of a (very) late 5th round pick in 2020 (pick #33-36 in round 5). Even if someone paid him enough to give us a 3rd round comp pick, that’s still technically a lower return than anyone’s 4th rounder in 2020 (even from the eventual superbowl winner).

That adds to the obvious variable which is that it’s not a sure thing in the first place, since we’d have to keep it in our pants in FA to keep that pick in the first place. As much as Douglas is surely aware of what he’d lose, if he thinks he can add a much-needed UFA in March he’s not going to stay away because of a max ultra-late 3rd round pick more than a year later.

Case in point, FFS Maccagnan declined picks for 4-5 eligible UFA losses with his March 2016 UFA signings alone. Luckily one of those was such an egregiously bad signing he was cut midseason & we got one of those picks back (which he then traded away and parlayed into even later picks that this scout-by-trade used to select Chad Hansen, Jeremy Clark, and Derrick Jones). And this was done in 2016 as the reigning GM of the Year or whatever the name of that laughable award he got for spending 2-3 years’ FA dollars in his first offseason (on top of shrewdly drafting Leo #6 overall, whom we’re now talking of moving for a relative rounding-error-value pick compared to his original slot). How anyone ever thought this boob was even partially-competent is beyond my comprehension. The power of faith, I suppose. ;) 

Oh, and the Jets would add another ~$9MM in cap room for 2020 if he was moved right now. Ask yourself if that’s unimportant when we get outbid for any player by an additional $2MM guaranteed money per year. 

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If we didn’t have Leonard Williams right now, and this desperately-needing-picks roster had an extra 2020 20th-30th pick in round 3 (or even in round 4) from a prior trade, how many would sign on for trading that pick away to bring in Leo right now, at $900K/week, with a contract that expires at the end of the season? Everyone would say, “Why? Just sign him after the season as a FA, and use that extra $9MM towards a new UFA contract instead of wasting it on an expiring one in an already-dead season.”

Sitting at 1-5, that’s what we’re doing by keeping him instead of trading him.

It’d be like making the Percy Harvin trade right now, without the rationalization that we’re adding young, ready-now wepponz for a struggling young QB’s development. 

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2 hours ago, Ghost said:

Leo is not productive. He doesn’t do anything. He shouldn’t have been a top 10 pick. In fact, he shouldn’t have been drafted until the 4th round. 

He is a BUST. 

You're posting this in a thread based on a video of him doing productive things. That's ridiculous. I'm not saying sign Leo long term. I just don't think he's nearly as bad as many paint him to be.

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1 hour ago, Sperm Edwards said:

DRob started for 5 seasons. Think he even won a DPOTW once. He was still a bust. Are there bigger busts? Yes.

I think Leo is more along the lines of relative bust. There are lots of those in the league. Just hurts more when we’ve taken one this high up.

I don't think he's any kind of bust as much as the pick is part of a losing macro strategy. Obviously the overall idea in the first round has been just don't miss. That part is fine. Ignoring positional value as a means to that end isn't. There's a lot less wringing of hands over the Williams pick if three of our four next rounders aren't ILB, S, DT.

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1 minute ago, Miss Lonelyhearts said:

I don't think he's any kind of bust as much as the pick is part of a losing macro strategy. Obviously the overall idea in the first round has been just don't miss. That part is fine. Ignoring positional value as a means to that end isn't. There's a lot less wringing of hands over the Williams pick if three of our four next rounders aren't ILB, S, DT.

It’s a matter of opinion. He’s a relative bust in that he’s not nearly the player they thought he’d become with such a high pick. He doesn’t move the needle over a replacement enough to invest a #6 overall pick into the player. Could we have made an even worse pick? Of course. As it’s been mentioned, if he was even a 2nd round pick (let alone a mid-round pick or later) there would be no complaints about him. 

However unrealistic it might be, when you pick that high you’re expecting a perennial allstar type, if not a borderline or actual HOF candidate. He’s a good player, but he’s not great, and great is what you hope for at #6 when you’re not drafting to fill a hole. 

Yes it’s bad when ILB-S-DT are 3 of the next 4 first rounders. But it’s that much worse since, at the time, we had 2 good young ones starting already (3 if you include Coples, who wasn’t so good, but his 5th year option the team exercised by that same GM just before drafting Leo). 

No argument about the positional value, which is obvious to any GM (or fan coming to said GM’s defense) who isn’t overthinking an upcoming pick so much he misses the forest for the trees, and forgets the goal of drafting is to build a team not drafting to not-get second guessed on player-to-slot value with myopic, perceived BPA regardless of position.

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