Darnold's Floor

[ZachEY]

Just now, Scott Dierking said:

I entered into this thread hoping for a thorough discussion of hardwood vs vinyl

Something something Sam Darnold something drapes match curtains?

[FireTheJohnsons]

2 hours ago, Matt39 said:

Bortles probably as a floor. 

The last strecth of the season is crucial. He's had two promising starts in a row after a horrific start. 23 games is probably a large enough sample to determine on how to move forward. Too much noise in this thread and not enough acknowledgment of what Darnold's produced to date weighted against other QB's their first two seasons. That's where the apprehension is coming from. Hoping for the best/reaching his ceiling vs trying again in the draft both need to be on the table.

 

This is an oversimplified, lazy analysis. Really driven by an agenda, but carry on 

[Irish Jet]

The most obvious comparison from that draft class in terms of both early production and playing style would be Eli. He had a lot of the same issues as Darnold, was helped by having Plaxico Burress to throw it to.

Rivers probably never got a better team than the one he walked into. San Diego have f*cked him over.

[JoeWillieWhiteShoesHOF]

Post pilfered from another site...but I couldn’t help it, I just had to share...just wait I’m telling you, just wait until he has just an average amount of time, every Jet fan will echo Flounder in unison “Oh Boy...is this Great”

 

“(via PFF) Among qualified QBs, Sam Darnold has been pressured on the highest percentage of dropbacks (43.3%). His average sack taken has come in just 3.03 seconds, quicker than any other QB.


His 7 INTs under pressure are 2nd-most behind Winston (3 came against NE) However, Darnold is tied for 2nd with 6 TDs under pressure. Best TD% under pressure: Mahomes (8.6%) - 6 TD/70 attempts Wilson (7.7%) - 9/117 Jackson (7.2%) - 5/69 Carr (7.1%) - 5/70 Darnold (6.6%) - 6/91


I mean that's pretty brutal. pressured on almost half the drop backs and sacked in 3.03 seconds on average. that's insane”

[y2k8]

6 hours ago, The Voice of Reason said:

Rivers has had games like that... So bad games doesn't mean career trajectory.

I have full confidence that Sam is going to be a very good QB in this league with a chance to be great.

Frankly. I am sick and tired of the instant overreaction hot takes about players in this league on a weekly basis.  It's reached absurd levels. The two morons on High Noon were just discussing how Tom Brady is basically done.   This expectation that QBs should hit the ground running is the epitome stupid

[Irish Jet]

32 minutes ago, JoeWillieWhiteShoesHOF said:

“(via PFF) Among qualified QBs, Sam Darnold has been pressured on the highest percentage of dropbacks (43.3%). His average sack taken has come in just 3.03 seconds, quicker than any other QB.

This is pretty telling. It's obvious watching the games that it's brutal but it's good to be reminded it's literally the worst situation in the league.

I genuinely wonder what the Darnold detractors expect from a second year QB in these circumstances. 

I f*cking hate Mike Maccagnan. Hate him.

[Jet Nut]

1 hour ago, jgb said:

You want to argue Darnold has an Aaron Rogers ceiling, going to have to ask you to show your work.

You can go argue with Tony Romo, who has said just this. 
 

So show your work that says he can’t. ?

[JoeWillieWhiteShoesHOF]

18 minutes ago, Irish Jet said:

This is pretty telling. It's obvious watching the games that it's brutal but it's good to be reminded it's literally the worst situation in the league.

I genuinely wonder what the Darnold detractors expect from a second year QB in these circumstances. 

I f*cking hate Mike Maccagnan. Hate him.

 

Glad I could get that data into the Sunshine for all to see.

Once again, I’d like to see Tom Brady play in identical circumstances.  Guy has been playing pitch and catch for 20 years and leaves a finished game with a clean jersey.

I’d bet he’d have a lower completion % than Darnold right now.  Darnold’s is unbelievably 63%.  Imagine Sanchez??? It’d be in the 30’s hahaha.

[ZachEY]

1 hour ago, JoeWillieWhiteShoesHOF said:

 

Glad I could get that data into the Sunshine for all to see.

Once again, I’d like to see Tom Brady play in identical circumstances.  Guy has been playing pitch and catch for 20 years and leaves a finished game with a clean jersey.

I’d bet he’d have a lower completion % than Darnold right now.  Darnold’s is unbelievably 63%.  Imagine Sanchez??? It’d be in the 30’s hahaha.

This ignores any contribution Darnold has to the pressure on him.  Yes, the line is trash.  Yes, it needs major upgrades.  But, Darnold has yet to show he can quickly ID pressure and beat it with a quick strike.  That’s something Brady has excelled at over the course of his career - His jersey is clean because he gets the ball out faster than anyone.  Brady would look better with this offensive line for that reason, teams have to respect that he can deliver the ball quickly, and wouldn’t just be in attack mode.

[Apache 51]

6 hours ago, ScarletKnight89 said:

Darnold turning into Phillip Rivers, who may very well being going into the Hall of Fame one day, is a bad thing?

Apparently some see it that way, smh. I think he played with a torn acl, at one point, if memory serves.

[Irish Jet]

2 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

This ignores any contribution Darnold has to the pressure on him.  Yes, the line is trash.  Yes, it needs major upgrades.  But, Darnold has yet to show he can quickly ID pressure and beat it with a quick strike.  That’s something Brady has excelled at over the course of his career - His jersey is clean because he gets the ball out faster than anyone.  Brady would look better with this offensive line for that reason, teams have to respect that he can deliver the ball quickly, and wouldn’t just be in attack mode.

Agreed but most QB's of Darnold's age and experience aren't picking apart NFL blitz schemes. That's something that will take time.

If you'd taken Brady straight out of Michigan and put him behind this same line it's probably a different story.

 

[The Crusher]

2 hours ago, JoeWillieWhiteShoesHOF said:

Post pilfered from another site...but I couldn’t help it, I just had to share...just wait I’m telling you, just wait until he has just an average amount of time, every Jet fan will echo Flounder in unison “Oh Boy...is this Great”

 

“(via PFF) Among qualified QBs, Sam Darnold has been pressured on the highest percentage of dropbacks (43.3%). His average sack taken has come in just 3.03 seconds, quicker than any other QB.


His 7 INTs under pressure are 2nd-most behind Winston (3 came against NE) However, Darnold is tied for 2nd with 6 TDs under pressure. Best TD% under pressure: Mahomes (8.6%) - 6 TD/70 attempts Wilson (7.7%) - 9/117 Jackson (7.2%) - 5/69 Carr (7.1%) - 5/70 Darnold (6.6%) - 6/91


I mean that's pretty brutal. pressured on almost half the drop backs and sacked in 3.03 seconds on average. that's insane”

Excuses 

[Y3k]

11 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

This ignores any contribution Darnold has to the pressure on him.  Yes, the line is trash.  Yes, it needs major upgrades.  But, Darnold has yet to show he can quickly ID pressure and beat it with a quick strike.  That’s something Brady has excelled at over the course of his career - His jersey is clean because he gets the ball out faster than anyone.  Brady would look better with this offensive line for that reason, teams have to respect that he can deliver the ball quickly, and wouldn’t just be in attack mode.

Yes that is why he is at the top of the leuage In TDs under pressure, and why he can make this offense functional despite all the pressure. What a joke post

[ZachEY]

8 minutes ago, Irish Jet said:

Agreed but most QB's of Darnold's age and experience aren't picking apart NFL blitz schemes. That's something that will take time.

If you'd taken Brady straight out of Michigan and put him behind this same line it's probably a different story.

 

Sure, but that’s not the comparison that was made in the post I quoted.  I’m not expecting Sam to have a very good statistical year under these circumstances, but I certainly expect him to do better than the copious inexplicably stupid decisions he makes.  And frankly, under much more advantageous circumstances at USC. He undoubtedly turned the ball over too much.

He doesn’t have Favre’s arm, or anything close, so he has to be much smarter.  He’s not, and can’t be, a gunslinger.

[ZachEY]

9 minutes ago, Y3k said:

Yes that is why he is at the top of the leuage In TDs under pressure, and why he can make this offense functional despite all the pressure. What a joke post

He’s also essentially tied for 1st in the league in INTs per throw, but no one was asking you anyway, nico.

[Bruce Harper]

8 hours ago, The Voice of Reason said:

After watching last nights game, I came to the realization that if Darnold doesn't learn and make better decisions that the Jets may end up with their version of Rivers. Rivers is an above average QB. He has a unique throwing style and sometimes throws in odd positions.  He makes accurate throws but also can make bad decisions.

Watching Rivers throw his 4th pick of the night it dawned on me that, I could be watching the future for Sam.

Let me get this clear.... I do not hope for this or do I think this will happen, but I believe it is possible. 10+ years of above average play that ends up getting you a mediocre football team because he cannot close when he needed. We have not seen this year Darnold come through in the clutch at the end of a game. I am truly curious as to what happened to Rivers that he ended up like this but it certainly feels like the Jets are heading this direction and its scary. 10 years of under-performance and failed hope with talent all around on offense and Defense they just can't put it all together, and they have a franchise QB.

I hope that the Jets do not end up down this path. That would almost be worse then being the Browns.

You have set a high bar for yourself by calling yourself "The Voice of Reason."  Respectfully, I am not convinced that you are meeting that standard.  Because Rivers threw four INTs Darold will be mediocre for 10+ years?  This makes very little sense.

[14 in Green]

16 hours ago, greenwichjetfan said:

I also looked at River's early career. Specifically his first year. And tried to discuss it. Given your response, what's the point of any of this then? To feel good about beating up on some poster on the internet? 

I'm not getting involved in this discussion, because threads like this are ridiculous.

Sam has played well the last two games, everyone should be feeling good about that. The problem always is the same one though, there are always people here who go overboard everytime he does well by either saying things like "Rivers is his floor". which I'm sorry, is just dumb, or by putting down other young QBs.

One last thing. How is it that this OP's thread has become the one where all of a sudden people are concerned about "beating someone up for his opinions?" This seems like a strange thread to take that tact, especially since the poor, picked upon OP has butt fumbled about 25 people in this thread for not agreeing with him.

EDIT @Maxman take a look at who BF'ed this. You warned both of us to knock it off with each other. It looks like only one of us listened...

[CurtMart]

10 hours ago, The Voice of Reason said:

After watching last nights game, I came to the realization that if Darnold doesn't learn and make better decisions that the Jets may end up with their version of Rivers. Rivers is an above average QB. He has a unique throwing style and sometimes throws in odd positions.  He makes accurate throws but also can make bad decisions.

Watching Rivers throw his 4th pick of the night it dawned on me that, I could be watching the future for Sam.

Let me get this clear.... I do not hope for this or do I think this will happen, but I believe it is possible. 10+ years of above average play that ends up getting you a mediocre football team because he cannot close when he needed. We have not seen this year Darnold come through in the clutch at the end of a game. I am truly curious as to what happened to Rivers that he ended up like this but it certainly feels like the Jets are heading this direction and its scary. 10 years of under-performance and failed hope with talent all around on offense and Defense they just can't put it all together, and they have a franchise QB.

I hope that the Jets do not end up down this path. That would almost be worse then being the Browns.

I’d take 10 years of mediocre QB play. Better than your average of 6-10 seasons over the last 9 years. 

[FireTheJohnsons]

3 hours ago, Irish Jet said:

This is pretty telling. It's obvious watching the games that it's brutal but it's good to be reminded it's literally the worst situation in the league.

I genuinely wonder what the Darnold detractors expect from a second year QB in these circumstances. 

I f*cking hate Mike Maccagnan. Hate him.

This is why the advanced Qb stats are flat out pointless. Big deal that they are defense adjusted, they don’t isolate the qb from the rest of the team around him. And why when people like @RutgersJetFan claim he is not good and won’t be good because of these metrics they show how little they understand the metrics they tout. Now, until he becomes a franchise QB, he’s not, but to ignore the team around him is horrible analysis at best.

[FireTheJohnsons]

49 minutes ago, 14 in Green said:

I'm not getting involved in this discussion, because threads like this are ridiculous.

Sam has played well the last two games, everyone should be feeling good about that. The problem always is the same one though, there are always people here who go overboard everytime he does well by either saying things like "Rivers is his floor". which I'm sorry, is just dumb, or by putting down other young QBs.

One last thing. How is it that this OP's thread has become the one where all of a sudden people are concerned about "beating someone up for his opinions?" This seems like a strange thread to take that tact, especially since the poor, picked upon OP has butt fumbled about 25 people in this thread for not agreeing with him.

Yeah, but the people declaring him a bust in a bad game with zero support are warranted right? Both sides are premature.

[FireTheJohnsons]

1 hour ago, TeddEY said:

Sure, but that’s not the comparison that was made in the post I quoted.  I’m not expecting Sam to have a very good statistical year under these circumstances, but I certainly expect him to do better than the copious inexplicably stupid decisions he makes.  And frankly, under much more advantageous circumstances at USC. He undoubtedly turned the ball over too much.

He doesn’t have Favre’s arm, or anything close, so he has to be much smarter.  He’s not, and can’t be, a gunslinger.

They are not completely inexplicable, he has no confidence in his line, warranted, and he is a young QB. These guys are not robots, and they learn via experience. The question is, will he learn, that is to be determined. But it’s quite explicable if you understand football.

[FireTheJohnsons]

2 hours ago, TeddEY said:

This ignores any contribution Darnold has to the pressure on him.  Yes, the line is trash.  Yes, it needs major upgrades.  But, Darnold has yet to show he can quickly ID pressure and beat it with a quick strike.  That’s something Brady has excelled at over the course of his career - His jersey is clean because he gets the ball out faster than anyone.  Brady would look better with this offensive line for that reason, teams have to respect that he can deliver the ball quickly, and wouldn’t just be in attack mode.

Brady looked like crap this week when no wrs we’re open and he had pressure. A Qb is one player of 11. 

[ZachEY]

8 minutes ago, FireTheJohnsons said:

They are not completely inexplicable, he has no confidence in his line, warranted, and he is a young QB. These guys are not robots, and they learn via experience. The question is, will he learn, that is to be determined. But it’s quite explicable if you understand football.

My offensive line isn't good, so let me throw the ball up in the air to no one.  Indeed, I'm the one struggling to understand things.

4 minutes ago, FireTheJohnsons said:

Brady looked like crap this week when no wrs we’re open and he had pressure. A Qb is one player of 11. 

So, we're still going to push the Brady comparison?  This seems like someone who understands football.

Welcome Back, by the way, how long do you think you'll last this time?

[FireTheJohnsons]

2 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

My offensive line isn't good, so let me throw the ball up in the air to no one.  Indeed, I'm the one struggling to understand things.

So, we're still going to push the Brady comparison?  This seems like someone who understands football.

Welcome Back, by the way, how long do you think you'll last this time?

Try to be better than this, for someone who thinks they are smarter than the rest of the free world, you should aspire to be better.
 

You brought up Brady, not me. 
 

not long at all, but I don’t care, if I did, I would last much longer....

[ZachEY]

4 minutes ago, FireTheJohnsons said:

 You brought up Brady, not me. 

Did I?

3 hours ago, JoeWillieWhiteShoesHOF said:

Once again, I’d like to see Tom Brady play in identical circumstances.

 

[JoeWillieWhiteShoesHOF]

3 hours ago, TeddEY said:

This ignores any contribution Darnold has to the pressure on him.  Yes, the line is trash.  Yes, it needs major upgrades.  But, Darnold has yet to show he can quickly ID pressure and beat it with a quick strike.  That’s something Brady has excelled at over the course of his career - His jersey is clean because he gets the ball out faster than anyone.  Brady would look better with this offensive line for that reason, teams have to respect that he can deliver the ball quickly, and wouldn’t just be in attack mode.

All true.  Can’t argue your points.

But give Darnold some time.  He seems like he wants to be great (outside of when he’s not getting mono).  I’m not saying he’ll get to Brady’s level of reading D’s, or even close to it.

But it should be a lot of fun watching the process....and hoping he gets to high level in that skill.

[FireTheJohnsons]

1 hour ago, TeddEY said:

Did I?

 

Yup, sure did, in the post I responded.

let me give you some free, unsolicited advice....

your a somewhat intelligent kid, but you don’t know everything, and your opinion isn’t more valid than anyone else’s. A little humility can go a long way. 

thank me when you’re ready

[Jetscode1]

12 hours ago, The Voice of Reason said:

After watching last nights game, I came to the realization that if Darnold doesn't learn and make better decisions that the Jets may end up with their version of Rivers. Rivers is an above average QB. He has a unique throwing style and sometimes throws in odd positions.  He makes accurate throws but also can make bad decisions.

Watching Rivers throw his 4th pick of the night it dawned on me that, I could be watching the future for Sam.

Let me get this clear.... I do not hope for this or do I think this will happen, but I believe it is possible. 10+ years of above average play that ends up getting you a mediocre football team because he cannot close when he needed. We have not seen this year Darnold come through in the clutch at the end of a game. I am truly curious as to what happened to Rivers that he ended up like this but it certainly feels like the Jets are heading this direction and its scary. 10 years of under-performance and failed hope with talent all around on offense and Defense they just can't put it all together, and they have a franchise QB.

I hope that the Jets do not end up down this path. That would almost be worse then being the Browns.

I'm not sure if Darnold leads us to the promise land or not.  Sometimes a player serves as a stop-gap or a foundational player that propels the program forward...maybe cause I just watched ESPN's "The Class that saved Coach K"...makes me realize we need foundational players...Darnold, Adams, come to mind...guys who want to build the foundation for organizational excellence.  The glory comes after the foundation is built and I'd expect some growing pains along the way.

 

To your point, Rivers may make a good comp or maybe even a Drew Bledsoe but if he can get us to that floor, I'd argue he has brought us value (pushed us up Wooden's pyramid of success) but the FO needs to do its part and add to the talent pool to get us over the top.

[jgb]

8 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

You can go argue with Tony Romo, who has said just this. 
 

So show your work that says he can’t. ?

We all want to believe Darnold is somewhere between Rivers and Rogers. So, like, convince us.

Of course there is no actual evidence or statistics that can possibly support this, thus the defensive reaction when we ask how you draw this conclusion.

Just homer rainbows. Too bad, we want to be convinced.

[jgb]

Haven’t we learned anything about unrealistic expectations from people expecting playoffs at the beginning of this season? Apparently some people never learn.

How much evidence do people need to expect the worst with this team?

[Jet Nut]

16 minutes ago, jgb said:

Uh huh. So basically Jets fans think Darnold is somewhere between HOFer and better HOFer and butt fumble anyone who says “based on what” but it’s us who need to show our work. Riiiiiiight. Homers gonna homer. 

He plays the style of Rodgers.  Romo thinks his ceiling is there.  I repeated that.  
You wanted to see the work.  I gave you Romo.  I’m still waiting for your work why it can’t happen other than being a SOJF who thinks everything Jets sucks.  
Works both ways. And again, I’d rather be a homer than a negative Nancy 
 

[jgb]

29 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

He plays the style of Rodgers.  Romo thinks his ceiling is there.  I repeated that.  
You wanted to see the work.  I gave you Romo.  I’m still waiting for your work why it can’t happen other than being a SOJF who thinks everything Jets sucks.  
Works both ways. And again, I’d rather be a homer than a negative Nancy 
 

Love how appeal to authority is the favored debate tactic when JN likes what the talking head says but it is evidence of a conspiracy against the Jets when we don’t like what is said. It is not a negative Nancy to point out that Darnold’s early career trajectory has no commonalities to Rogers except they are both from the state of California. Now this is a discussion board, so if you want to discuss, let’s see what you are basing this very provocative assessment on.

[JoeWillieWhiteShoesHOF]

7 hours ago, TeddEY said:

Sure, but that’s not the comparison that was made in the post I quoted.  I’m not expecting Sam to have a very good statistical year under these circumstances, but I certainly expect him to do better than the copious inexplicably stupid decisions he makes.  And frankly, under much more advantageous circumstances at USC. He undoubtedly turned the ball over too much.

He doesn’t have Favre’s arm, or anything close, so he has to be much smarter.  He’s not, and can’t be, a gunslinger.

It might not be at Favre level, but your "anything close" statement is far from accurate.

Darnold has an exceptionally strong arm, he just doesn't play QB throwing 1 speed all the time.  In fact he throws at many different speeds.  There is an out route he threw vs Denver last year that was ripped on a clothesline with a thimble sized window to make the completion....and he did.  That was more than enough evidence for me.

You're going to see and feel much differently once Douglas gets him more time.  Quite a few "3 play full field TD drives" and 30+ point games will be his norm in his future.

[Maxman]

11 hours ago, 14 in Green said:

 

EDIT @Maxman take a look at who BF'ed this. You warned both of us to knock it off with each other. It looks like only one of us listened...

@Skeptable we did have a deal. You have reported over 15 posts where you were but fumbled. I told you I would look into it and I did warn 14 and green. In return I asked you not  to neg rep him anymore. 

From the looks of this you didn't comply.

When I get some time I'll look into how to take Neg rep away from some users only. This isn't worth it if people are getting this riled up over it.

Until then no need to report any more posts.

[ZachEY]

8 hours ago, JoeWillieWhiteShoesHOF said:

All true.  Can’t argue your points.

But give Darnold some time.  He seems like he wants to be great (outside of when he’s not getting mono).  I’m not saying he’ll get to Brady’s level of reading D’s, or even close to it.

But it should be a lot of fun watching the process....and hoping he gets to high level in that skill.

Darnold will get time.  All of next year to be certain.  I’m not even advocating giving up on him.  I don’t think I’ve ever called him a ‘bust,’ though, it’s possible if motivated, someone could prove me wrong there.  I simply argue the point, which ought not be so outlandish, that Darnold isn’t an obvious franchise QB if not for x,y,z.  He’s an athletic kid with a lot of talent, but poor instincts, and who doesn’t have the mental aspects of QBing down.  This actually explains why he’s better out of the pocket - less defenders to worry about, less decisions to make.

And ultimately, for the sake of this thread, his floor is not a guy who’s worst years we’re significantly better than anything he’s done to date.

5 hours ago, JoeWillieWhiteShoesHOF said:

It might not be at Favre level, but your "anything close" statement is far from accurate.

Darnold has an exceptionally strong arm, he just doesn't play QB throwing 1 speed all the time.  In fact he throws at many different speeds.  There is an out route he threw vs Denver last year that was ripped on a clothesline with a thimble sized window to make the completion....and he did.  That was more than enough evidence for me.

You're going to see and feel much differently once Douglas gets him more time.  Quite a few "3 play full field TD drives" and 30+ point games will be his norm in his future.

I agree that there are other factors involved in why he’s not throwing lasers left and right, and I remember the throw you’re talking about well - even posted it was my favorite play of the game, because it’s an important weapon that you hadn’t seen from him.  That said, it’s exceptionally rare that he makes that throw - enough so that we both remember it - so, it still seems like an outlier.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not calling his arm bad.  I’m calling it an average NFL arm.  Not strong enough to rifle the ball into a tight window without setting his feet and delivering, as he did in the aforementioned play.  And the point I’m trying to make is that an average NFL arm is probably not be enough to compensate for a less deliberate, less cerebral style of play.  I’ve said, Brett Favre without Brett Favre’s arm washes out of the league quickly.