The Jets Have a Top-5 Defense

[RutgersJetFan]

Updated #'s released today.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef/2019

A few things of note:

- The numbers here are heavily skewed by the defensive line, particularly in run defense. In that regard, the Jets defense is not only best in the league, but by a considerable margin. Consider the stoppage numbers:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/dl/2019

- Note the percentage disparities in stuffs, which are considerably higher than other disparities between other teams. The Jets are an astonishing 4% higher than #2 (Bucs), no other single gaps between rankings touch 4%. It's 1-2% differences the rest of the way down. One could attribute that to an anomaly that will even out over the final 1/4 of the season but 11 games is considered a large sample size for a season, so it's doubtful.

- The pass defense is discernibly average, both in coverage and with the line. Jets DL is 17th against the pass, and the Jets pass D is also 17th overall, which means the secondary as an entire unit may not be making that much of a difference. However if the corners sucked, which they have, the WEI should be lower, and it isn't. I think the answer is that if you cross-reference Adams' and Maye's PFF numbers with how the corners have scored, there is reason to believe the DL and safeties are really making up for some lackluster corners overall on the year, as sub-average corners would logically bring their WEI considerably. The Jets have completely neglected corner and the edge over the last several years and it shows, had they drafted or signed even an above-average edge rusher it's safe to assume the Jets might be up more with Baltimore and Pittsburgh with perhaps another win or two under their belt, and thus actually be in a position to make a playoff push right now.

- Top 5 is a bit of a lie, as the disparity between NE and SF and everyone else this year is huge. There isn't that much of a huge disparity between the Jets and other teams rounding out the top 12 or so, so framing it that way misrepresents how they are comparatively to the top 2 teams, but it's a number worth noting. Credit where credit is due to Gregg Williams. That the Jets are this adequate without any of their first round picks for the last ten years sans Adams and Q, trading away L. Williams mid-season, and without their keystone FA signing (Mosely) is an achievement.

- Offense aside, the Jets have to find some way to devote high-level resources to the pass defense. Darnold's numbers are still low in the aggregate and it's safe to assume there will be weeks next year where the defense will have to carry the day. Early rounders for defense should be out of the question, however if the Jets can hit on just a few mid-rounders at CB and edge this will most definitely be a playoff caliber defense according to what the data says.

[Larz]

Look at the corners bless and Maulet just balling out 

williams has done a great job 

[Sarge4Tide]

[Rob123]

The Jets have a very good defense and will have one for the foreseeable future.  As I have said before- McCagnan did it- he found  that "steal" and "diamond in the rough" he was always looking for in Bless Austin.  He is a very good players and the only questions involve his health.

The strength of the defense is what makes addressing the offense so critical in this draft.  This is not the year where the Jets should even consider taking the best player available or "potential best in the draft" and just concentrate on drafting the best players  available at the biggest positions of need.

[jetstream23]

[jetstream23]

Quote

The Jets Have a Top-5 Defense

Which is amazing considering they're not even in the top half of THEIR OWN DIVISION in Points Against. (By a wide margin!)

So I ask, how meaningful is this stat about being a Top 5 D?

 

 

This is a Top 5 Defense?

[Joe W. Namath]

Greg Williams is one of the best defensive minds in the game.  This is not surprising.

[BroadwayRay]

If not for the Miami game, or the missed field goal against Buffalo, the playoffs would be a realistic possibility.

[RutgersJetFan]

5 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

Which is amazing considering they're not even in the top half of THEIR OWN DIVISION in Points Against. (By a wide margin!)

So I ask, how meaningful is this stat about being a Top 5 D?

 

 

This is a Top 5 Defense?

Very. Simply put Points Against is a raw number. WEI weights contingencies and context accordingly, such as league environment, strength of schedule, measurements against league averages...etc. It's also weighted so that the games earlier in the season count less.

[jetstream23]

3 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

Very. Simply put Points Against is a raw number. WEI weights contingencies and context accordingly, such as league environment, strength of schedule, measurements against league averages...etc. It's also weighted so that the games earlier in the season count less.

Understood.  But I'd rather have a Bottom 5 D for a Team that is 7-5 and has about 200 points against.

[Apache 51]

They will be able to rate even better when the Offense keeps the opposing O off the field by moving the chains and chewing clock, as well as putting up points hopefully.

[ChuckkieB]

The top 5 ranking is all well and good, but it just doesn't pass the eye test for me.  Watching every play of every game this year, except for the Raiders game, the defense hasn't "felt" or looked like a top 5 defense IMO.

[HessStation]

24 minutes ago, Rob123 said:

The Jets have a very good defense and will have one for the foreseeable future.  As I have said before- McCagnan did it- he found  that "steal" and "diamond in the rough" he was always looking for in Bless Austin.  He is a very good players and the only questions involve his health.

The strength of the defense is what makes addressing the offense so critical in this draft.  This is not the year where the Jets should even consider taking the best player available or "potential best in the draft" and just concentrate on drafting the best players  available at the biggest positions of need.

Are you saying Maccagnan wasn’t so bad bc of this or are you just giving him a slice of credit for blind squirreling one

[Irish Jet]

None of this is particularly surprising. This long time lack of investment in certain areas has been painfully obvious all season.

On the defensive line we've always seemingly had guys come out of nowhere to be big contributors. The first round picks on DL have always at least been stellar which is better than nothing but they feel like a waste given our needs elsewhere. Thankfully we seem to have found some nice corners of late - would be a godsend if they can maintain their play.

Given we have Mosley to return I think this group is pretty solid heading into next season. It's been great to see depth guys step up and earn a spot. The offseason has to be all about transforming the offence. 

[Barry McCockinner]

The defense has been a different animal since we got some corners who can play out there. Going to shock the world against the Ravens in a few weeks.

[RutgersJetFan]

9 minutes ago, Irish Jet said:

None of this is particularly surprising. This long time lack of investment in certain areas has been painfully obvious all season.

On the defensive line we've always seemingly had guys come out of nowhere to be big contributors. The first round picks on DL have always at least been stellar which is better than nothing but they feel like a waste given our needs elsewhere. Thankfully we seem to have found some nice corners of late - would be a godsend if they can maintain their play.

Given we have Mosley to return I think this group is pretty solid heading into next season. It's been great to see depth guys step up and earn a spot. The offseason has to be all about transforming the offence. 

Given the distribution of the data I'm not sure what Mosley even improves upon strictly from a quantitative standpoint. The 2019 Jets' D is already an anomaly on the interior. Even if Mosley returns and Quinnen Williams starts playing football, the Jets raw pass rush numbers will still be skewed because of Adams , meanwhile the edges and corners are still the same. Even if the Jets can make the playoffs with that sort of defensive setup it's unlikely to be sustainable because teams that can't rush the edge and guard the sidelines get carved up in the playoffs.

[Warfish]

27 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

Which is amazing considering they're not even in the top half of THEIR OWN DIVISION in Points Against. (By a wide margin!)

So I ask, how meaningful is this stat about being a Top 5 D?

 

 

This is a Top 5 Defense?

Did you take into consideration pick six's, fumbles and special teams scores?  More, did you take into consideration the effects of field position related to offensive performances?  Time of Possession?

As with most things, the numbers tell the tale.....if you evaluate what they mean.

Keep in mind, the Jets Offense is still rated 31st in yards, 31st in first downs, 24th in turnovers lost, 26th in penalties, etc, etc, etc.

Great as we feel the past three weeks, this is a team whose Offense has materially under-performed, on average, this season.  This shows that the Defense has been in bad positions and on the field alot and down almost all year long, the last few weeks notwithstanding.  

Don't get me wrong, it's not a great defense by any stretch.  But they're performance this year cannot be interpreted properly without considering just how putrid the Jets Offense has been most of the season, and the situation that has left our Defense in during that time.

[Irish Jet]

6 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

Given the distribution of the data I'm not sure what Mosley even improves upon strictly from a quantitative standpoint. The 2019 Jets' D is already an anomaly on the interior. Even if Mosley returns and Quinnen Williams starts playing football, the Jets raw pass rush numbers will still be skewed because of Adams , meanwhile the edges and corners are still the same. Even if the Jets can make the playoffs with that sort of defensive setup it's unlikely to be sustainable because teams that can't rush the edge and guard the sidelines get carved up in the playoffs.

Yeah it's more a case of reinforcing the strengths with Mosley but he is a tier above the other LB's. He's also graded very in well in coverage through his career and with his limited play this year is in the top 5 in the team on PFF. More a case of giving Williams more to play with. 

I wonder how much of the corner rating is down to the awful play of Johnson and Roberts because I do think it's significantly improved. Austin and Maulet are two of our highest rated defenders on PFF who've recently emerged albeit against limited opponents. The hope is they sustain that play even if Austin has tragic Jet written all over him.

We did get by with Rex with a similar setup, albeit with one godly CB to open everything else up . We need to generate a pass rush through blitzing and scheming because I can't see any way we're landing a top edge rusher any time soon. 

[RutgersJetFan]

13 minutes ago, Irish Jet said:

Yeah it's more a case of reinforcing the strengths with Mosley but he is a tier above the other LB's. He's also graded very in well in coverage through his career and with his limited play this year is in the top 5 in the team on PFF. More a case of giving Williams more to play with. 

I wonder how much of the corner rating is down to the awful play of Johnson and Roberts because I do think it's significantly improved. Austin and Maulet are two of our highest rated defenders on PFF who've recently emerged albeit against limited opponents. The hope is they sustain that play even if Austin has tragic Jet written all over him.

We did get by with Rex with a similar setup, albeit with one godly CB to open everything else up . We need to generate a pass rush through blitzing and scheming because I can't see any way we're landing a top edge rusher any time soon. 

Less and less as the weeks go on. Earlier games get weighted less as the season continues. That's why 11-12 games is a fairly solid sample size for the season.

[joewilly12]

[Beerfish]

Lost both high priced ilbs, dumped highly touted leo.

Clearly shows what most people with a brain knew that ilbs and DTs are easily replaced and low priority.

[Rob123]

1 hour ago, HessStation said:

Are you saying Maccagnan wasn’t so bad bc of this or are you just giving him a slice of credit for blind squirreling one

Blind squirrel my friend.  Best analogy- if you lock your keys in the car every morning for 5 days straight, not doing it the 6th day is not an accomplishment.  He did this with around 12-15 players in his 5 years and one finally panned out well.

[NYJ1]

When toilet was here the Jets had a bad defense. Greg Williams just fixed what toilet was incapable of fixing.

[phill1c]

I think the defense has great potential going forward.

Clearly, they have DT taken care of, barring injury. They should have ILB taken care of, if players return to form after injury (Williamson, Mosley), Safety barring injury. Just looking at one more CB and an edge rusher.

Question: did Q Williams play DT in a 4-3 or DE in a 3-4 at Alabama?

[Rob123]

18 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

Lost both high priced ilbs, dumped highly touted leo.

Clearly shows what most people with a brain knew that ilbs and DTs are easily replaced and low priority.

It was not clear the beta male running the Jets had a brain.  The moves say it but Mac also came off as an idiot when he spoke.  He did not come off as an intelligent person.  Often his responses were what you would expect of a 12 year old.  "We will get a really, really good player at 3".  Is that how an intelligent football mind answers a question related to trading down?

I truly think in the end it comes down to Macagnan is just not that smart of a guy.  I don't think he got the difference between the first DT taken in the first and the first taken in the fourth is not as wide a gap between the best QB taken in the first v fourth.  He didn't know how to evaluate talent and his draft picks show that.

The worst is he was a true beta male in that his mistakes scared him into inaction.  He only drafted Darnold after he couldn't sign Cousins and he wanted Cousins because he took 2 QBs that made him look foolish.  He never drafted a wideout after the 2nd round bust and there are  other examples.  His philosophy of drafting the "best player available" was out of fear of looking bad and whiffing on a first round pick.  This was a guy who operated with no aggression in the game of football.

[Miss Lonelyhearts]

2 minutes ago, phill1c said:

Question: did Q Williams play DT in a 4-3 or DE in a 3-4 at Alabama?

No.

[phill1c]

5 minutes ago, NYJ1 said:

When toilet was here the Jets had a bad defense. Greg Williams just fixed what toilet was incapable of fixing.

No, there are significantly different personnel:

• Virtually the entire DL is new.
• The LBs are significantly different and new
• The corners are new

And the defense just started playing well after a) the CBs were benched, and b) the offense started balling.

All props to Greg Williams, but he's not doing it solely with Bowles's players.

[phill1c]

Just now, Miss Lonelyhearts said:

No.

Enlightening.

thanks.

[phill1c]

32 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

Clearly shows what most people with a brain knew that ilbs and DTs are easily replaced and low priority

I agree.

DTs seem overrated. So, why do "the experts" consistently say that [insert highly touted college DT here]  is projected to be the #3 pick in the draft, year after year? I mean, in the case of Leo and Q, the experts were all saying "draft Williams, or Bosa (another DT) or Josh Allen". Why is that the case if they are so easily replaced and low priority to "most people"?

[HighPitch]

2 hours ago, Rob123 said:

The Jets have a very good defense and will have one for the foreseeable future.  As I have said before- McCagnan did it- he found  that "steal" and "diamond in the rough" he was always looking for in Bless Austin.  He is a very good players and the only questions involve his health.

The strength of the defense is what makes addressing the offense so critical in this draft.  This is not the year where the Jets should even consider taking the best player available or "potential best in the draft" and just concentrate on drafting the best players  available at the biggest positions of need.

WHAT?

the guy was the worst talent evaluator ever. Ok, so he hit on one guy. And to be clear bless was highly regarded but fell because of injury history.

its not like this guy was some secret community college sleeper out of n dakota

[JohnnyLV]

2 hours ago, ChuckkieB said:

The top 5 ranking is all well and good, but it just doesn't pass the eye test for me.  Watching every play of every game this year, except for the Raiders game, the defense hasn't "felt" or looked like a top 5 defense IMO.

I agree except for the fact that the instant they inserted Bless they DID pass the eye test and the results on the field were obvious.

[Beerfish]

22 minutes ago, phill1c said:

I agree.

DTs seem overrated. So, why do "the experts" consistently say that [insert highly touted college DT here]  is projected to be the #3 pick in the draft, year after year? I mean, in the case of Leo and Q, the experts were all saying "draft Williams, or Bosa (another DT) or Josh Allen". Why is that the case if they are so easily replaced and low priority to "most people"?

Bosa and Allen are actually pass rushers and bosa is more of an outside guy.

Q Williams played on a stacked team, had one year and did nothing in the nat champ game, all warning signs his impact was over stated.

[Rob123]

1 hour ago, HighPitch said:

WHAT?

the guy was the worst talent evaluator ever. Ok, so he hit on one guy. And to be clear bless was highly regarded but fell because of injury history.

its not like this guy was some secret community college sleeper out of n dakota

My point is Macagnan was always looking to hit on guys and he finally did.  His drafts were more about him trying to show how smart he was  instead of drafting  the  best players or addressing needs.  His approach was a miserable failure but he did hit on one and it might be  a big one.

[Cyberjet]

The Jets defense this year (and team in general) reminds me of the time when Testeverde went down with his torn Achilles. It took the Jets half the season to stabilize and went 8-8.

[johnnyjet]

My take is this, the offense in the beginning of the year did crap...the D was out there wayyyyy to much. Now we have and O that is moving the ball and scoring, and we have 2 new corners, so all of a sudden the D is awesome.  They’re awesome because Jamal is lights out, bless can cover and we are winning the line of scrimmage..  you can’t run on the Jets..

 

beat cincy and Miami then shock the world.