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RutgersJetFan

The Jets Have a Top-5 Defense

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4 hours ago, Joe W. Namath said:

Greg Williams is one of the best defensive minds in the game.  This is not surprising.

Yes and yes it is surprising.   We literally got better by subtracting our highest paid players and replacing them with late round picks. The fact the defense got better is absolutely Surprising.,

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2 hours ago, Beerfish said:

Bosa and Allen are actually pass rushers and bosa is more of an outside guy.

Q Williams played on a stacked team, had one year and did nothing in the nat champ game, all warning signs his impact was over stated.

Yeah, all true, but...that's pretty much true of most highly rated college stars. They play on stacked teams, which is how NFL teams succeed, by stacking units.

it's cool to pan the pick, but don't you have to wait AT LEAST a season? I mean, you have several examples of players ON THE JETS DL who needed time before they showed. So, the jury absolutely has to still be out on whether he's good or not.

And then there's that

  • He plays DE in a 3-4: traditionally a two-gap position, it's not the most stat-creating position. How many tackles a game are you expecting? How many sacks are other rookie 3-4 DEs having?
  • He plays for the No. 1 Rush defense in the NFL. So, he's got to share in the accolades associated with the defense's stature. He's holding up his end. They aren't subbing him out. He's not the weak link, either.

Now, I can definitely understand the frustration of drafting the best inside defender in the draft. It's certainly not sexy and, on a team that needs impact players and stars, Williams is no Lamar Jackson. But a team also needs to win in the trenches, and considering the lack of a future for Leonard Williams, it sure seems prudent now to have drafted a guy with great potential, who is contributing significantly already, to replace him.

I think the focus on stats, especially sacks, for a rookie 3-4 DE in a Greg Williams defense is just misguided. And I think any assessment of a rookie is incomplete until the season is over. what are his PFF grades?

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The Jets defense this year (and team in general) reminds me of the time when Testeverde went down with his torn Achilles. It took the Jets half the season to stabilize and went 8-8.
1999

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

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15 hours ago, RutgersJetFan said:

Updated #'s released today.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef/2019

A few things of note:

- The numbers here are heavily skewed by the defensive line, particularly in run defense. In that regard, the Jets defense is not only best in the league, but by a considerable margin. Consider the stoppage numbers:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/dl/2019

- Note the percentage disparities in stuffs, which are considerably higher than other disparities between other teams. The Jets are an astonishing 4% higher than #2 (Bucs), no other single gaps between rankings touch 4%. It's 1-2% differences the rest of the way down. One could attribute that to an anomaly that will even out over the final 1/4 of the season but 11 games is considered a large sample size for a season, so it's doubtful.

- The pass defense is discernibly average, both in coverage and with the line. Jets DL is 17th against the pass, and the Jets pass D is also 17th overall, which means the secondary as an entire unit may not be making that much of a difference. However if the corners sucked, which they have, the WEI should be lower, and it isn't. I think the answer is that if you cross-reference Adams' and Maye's PFF numbers with how the corners have scored, there is reason to believe the DL and safeties are really making up for some lackluster corners overall on the year, as sub-average corners would logically bring their WEI considerably. The Jets have completely neglected corner and the edge over the last several years and it shows, had they drafted or signed even an above-average edge rusher it's safe to assume the Jets might be up more with Baltimore and Pittsburgh with perhaps another win or two under their belt, and thus actually be in a position to make a playoff push right now.

- Top 5 is a bit of a lie, as the disparity between NE and SF and everyone else this year is huge. There isn't that much of a huge disparity between the Jets and other teams rounding out the top 12 or so, so framing it that way misrepresents how they are comparatively to the top 2 teams, but it's a number worth noting. Credit where credit is due to Gregg Williams. That the Jets are this adequate without any of their first round picks for the last ten years sans Adams and Q, trading away L. Williams mid-season, and without their keystone FA signing (Mosely) is an achievement.

- Offense aside, the Jets have to find some way to devote high-level resources to the pass defense. Darnold's numbers are still low in the aggregate and it's safe to assume there will be weeks next year where the defense will have to carry the day. Early rounders for defense should be out of the question, however if the Jets can hit on just a few mid-rounders at CB and edge this will most definitely be a playoff caliber defense according to what the data says.

The New York Jets offense started playing 21st century football, getting first downs, and scoring points, Jets defense in turn has played well story at 8.

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15 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

Which is amazing considering they're not even in the top half of THEIR OWN DIVISION in Points Against. (By a wide margin!)

So I ask, how meaningful is this stat about being a Top 5 D?

 

 

1661223190_ScreenShot2019-11-26at2_03_54PM.png.018b684a9bf4243de5d572a3c0c4707c.png

This is a Top 5 Defense?

3 Luke Falk games plus the New England abomination of ONLY Darnold suiting up for his  2nd game back did demo to both PF & PA....and has totally skewed them.  People have to understand the Jets as currently constituted are NOT a 4-7 team.  Sam Darnold for all intents and purposes is 5-3 (adjusting for the Buffalo loss that 99% of teams playing that game win, throw in that Darnold played the game with Mono too).

Gregg Williams is f*ckin Wizard haha.

But seriously, the D looks stronger than ever with the emergence of these young Corners who came out of nowhere coupled with the “Heist of the Century” trade that thankfully got Leonard Williams off the Jets for good.

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15 hours ago, Warfish said:

Did you take into consideration pick six's, fumbles and special teams scores?  More, did you take into consideration the effects of field position related to offensive performances?  Time of Possession?

As with most things, the numbers tell the tale.....if you evaluate what they mean.

Keep in mind, the Jets Offense is still rated 31st in yards, 31st in first downs, 24th in turnovers lost, 26th in penalties, etc, etc, etc.

Great as we feel the past three weeks, this is a team whose Offense has materially under-performed, on average, this season.  This shows that the Defense has been in bad positions and on the field alot and down almost all year long, the last few weeks notwithstanding.  

Don't get me wrong, it's not a great defense by any stretch.  But they're performance this year cannot be interpreted properly without considering just how putrid the Jets Offense has been most of the season, and the situation that has left our Defense in during that time.

Good points, as usual.  I think this has also been a tale of 3 defenses.  We had the D that started in Week 1 and then immediately got decimated by injuries to Mosley and others.  That changed the complexion of the Defense for several more weeks as the Jets tried to find themselves, used underperforming CBs and played musical chairs at ILB.  The D then evolved again in recent weeks (taking into account inferior opponents and rookie QBs) but getting Austin and Maulet on the field, trading Leo to get more reps for guys like Fatukasi and Phillips, etc. has let Gregg Williams get this D on its best footing to date.

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5 minutes ago, JoeWillieWhiteShoesHOF said:

3 Luke Falk games plus the New England abomination of ONLY Darnold suiting up for his  2nd game back did demo to both PF & PA....and has totally skewed them.  People have to understand the Jets as currently constituted are NOT a 4-7 team.  Sam Darnold for all intents and purposes is 5-3 (adjusting for the Buffalo loss that 99% of teams playing that game win, throw in that Darnold played the game with Mono too).

Gregg Williams is f*ckin Wizard haha.

But seriously, the D looks stronger than ever with the emergence of these young Corners who came out of nowhere coupled with the “Heist of the Century” trade that thankfully got Leonard Williams off the Jets for good.

giphy-23.gif.7c52333a269ebcfb50867cc04efc1459.gif

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I feel like the Jets have been pretty good against the run since NFL QBs started putting up 5000 yard seasons with regularity. This team needs upgrades at CB and the EDGE. Gregg Williams, to his credit, has been covering those deficiencies well, but they still need an infusion of talent. 

This top run dee will face it’s real tests against Baltimore and Buffalo. 

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the somewhat surprising thing is they are doing well without the high draft pick dline that was put together over the past few years.  besides qwill are there any dlinemen drafted in the first round?

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1 hour ago, jetstream23 said:

Good points, as usual.  I think this has also been a tale of 3 defenses.  We had the D that started in Week 1 and then immediately got decimated by injuries to Mosley and others.  That changed the complexion of the Defense for several more weeks as the Jets tried to find themselves, used underperforming CBs and played musical chairs at ILB.  The D then evolved again in recent weeks (taking into account inferior opponents and rookie QBs) but getting Austin and Maulet on the field, trading Leo to get more reps for guys like Fatukasi and Phillips, etc. has let Gregg Williams get this D on its best footing to date.

I agree, and you make an excellent point re: the transition of who is playing what positions.  This may be the single most fluctuating year, in terms of individual players playing X position at this point, then Y playing at this point, then Z playing it now.  This variability (some due to injury, some due to poor play, etc.) should definitely be pointed out in any discussions of the performances, O and D, in 2019.  Great point!

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46 minutes ago, Warfish said:

I agree, and you make an excellent point re: the transition of who is playing what positions.  This may be the single most fluctuating year, in terms of individual players playing X position at this point, then Y playing at this point, then Z playing it now.  This variability (some due to injury, some due to poor play, etc.) should definitely be pointed out in any discussions of the performances, O and D, in 2019.  Great point!

Shows what a good coach like Williams can do. Put players in a position to be able to help the team.The result is what matters, not ego etc. And props to Gase for letting Williams do his thing and staying the hell out of the way.

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Admittedly, I am not all that familiar with the DVOA metrics, but I find it hard to accept us as a top 5 defense.  Analytics aside, besides preventing points from being scored, there are three things that I want out of a good defense: get off the field on 3rd down, limit points in the red zone, and take the ball away.

We are middle of the pack in turnovers and bottom of the league in RZ TD% and 3rd down conversion against.  I can't buy us as a top 5 defense when we are average to below in these areas, regardless of what the analytics say.

Don't want to sound overly critical of the defense, they have been solid most of the season season, but not top 5, at least not in my opinion.  Great against the run, successfully limited big plays against in the passing game.  They have been a solid bend don't break defense most of the season, which is fine, especially considering the injuries.

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2 hours ago, Warfish said:

I agree, and you make an excellent point re: the transition of who is playing what positions.  This may be the single most fluctuating year, in terms of individual players playing X position at this point, then Y playing at this point, then Z playing it now.  This variability (some due to injury, some due to poor play, etc.) should definitely be pointed out in any discussions of the performances, O and D, in 2019.  Great point!

When I look at the list of players who have had significant playing time this year (multiple games as starters) nobody would have ever expected it....Hewitt, Cashman, Fatukasi, Maulett, Phillips, Austin....it's crazy.  Combine that with the train wreck of personnel on offense in key positions on the OLine and some lesser WRs, no Herndon, etc. and it could almost be considered a miracle that this team has 4 wins before December.

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20 hours ago, Rob123 said:

Blind squirrel my friend.  Best analogy- if you lock your keys in the car every morning for 5 days straight, not doing it the 6th day is not an accomplishment.  He did this with around 12-15 players in his 5 years and one finally panned out well.

Ok good 

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The good teams will switch to running the ball in the playoffs like the Patriots did last year. 
 

The Jets stopping the run with the guys they have is a good thing. Now we need an edge and corners. 

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