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Rob123

New Draft Strategy

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At this point it is safe to say the Jets will likely not be picking in the top 10 and will likely have a mid first round pick. As far as receivers CeeDee Lamb, Henry Ruggs, and Tee Higgens are likely to be the  best on the board when  the Jets  pick with Alex Leatherwood, Jedrick Wills the best for the OL.

Now what do the Jets do?  Should they grab a receiver with their first pick or go with the  OL.  Josh Jones and Creed Humphrey are OL projected to go late in the first round.  Should the Jets hope one of them drops or hope a receiver drops to the second round?  It seems there are more projected receivers in the first round than OL and at this point I am thinking go OL with first pick because the pickings are slimmer and then hope one of the projected first round receiver falls.

This is what I would really like- I see the Jets finishing at  7-9 and not having  a top ten pick.  I say outside of the top ten it is a crap shoot and the difference between a guy drafted in the late first as opposed to the late second is minimal and often decided by the personal preferences of coaches and not talent.  It is not a given a receiver taken at 17 will be better than a guy taken at 40.  If you can't get one of the top 2 guys at a position, you are working with  a very similar talent pool after that.   

In this draft  I would rather see the Jets trade out of the first round and pick up an additional second and third rounder.  I use this scenario because unless someone falls I don't see a team looking to give up picks this year to swap with the Jets if they are at #18. Maybe a team would give a second rounder next year to move up from 24 but the Jets need picks this year.  I don't know they will get a receiver or OL in the middle of the first that would be much better than what is available in the second and third.  That would give the Jets 2 second rounders and 3 third rounders.  I think two additional picks would lead two two players just as good as who they could get with a mid first rounder.  Rather than getting the 4th best OL prospect at pick 18 I would rather get the 5th and 6th best prospects in the second, and the 8th in the third.  Darnold, Adams, Bell, Maye some would say Q Williams are star or going to be star players.  The Jets have their superstar core and now need to surround them with as much talent and depth as possible.  Both Maye and Bell were second round picks- you can find superstars there.  The potential of a mid first rounder vs a second rounder and the depth an extra third rounder would provide would have me making a trade like this.

Really  how great is this- the Jets have a FQB and are set at the position.  They are not going to have a premium pick to worry about screwing up for the first time in a while and Todd Bowles is not the Coach.  This is actually progress but brings with it something different- no guarantee of an impact draft pick or an ability to trade down and still keep a first rounder.  The mid first round picks are harder to hit on than a top 10 pick and they don't carry as much promise.

 

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Just now, Mark78 said:

I thought we were getting a bunch of 1st round picks when we trade Adams?

We would! Butttttt. I can’t see that happening now if we go finishing on a high note. 

Just pick OL or WR. That’s all. 

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7 minutes ago, Nixhead said:

So your saying we have a FQB. Then protect his ass!  OL, OL, OL, OL, OL! Our first 5 picks!

Have to get him a receiver.  You have to give him a quality number 1 option because if you don't he won't reach his full potential.  I don't want him to be  Drew Bledsoe.

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5 minutes ago, Mark78 said:

I thought we were getting a bunch of 1st round picks when we trade Adams?

Now I don't think they will- the defense has been too good with him leading it.  I looked closely at the numbers.  I  also noticed this- the Jets already have enough picks to fix the OL and take a chance on a receiver.  I would like them to get more but I now feel that defense will be kept together. 

This year- if Darnold did not get  mono and had an OL and number 1 receiver they are an 11-5 team.  They would have  beaten Buffalo, Miami  Jacksonville and the Browns and be at 8-3.  

This Jets team is no where near as bad as they looked and don't have as many holes as once thought- the issue is the holes are major.

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Just now, Beerfish said:

No. The other poster had it right, getting a good, not a 'can get by' oline should be priority #1, 2 and 3.

Our 1st and 2nd rounder should be oline unless we get remarkably unlucky.

The car finally has a powerful engine (QB) but we have no tires (oline), people are wanting to get the sun roof before we get tires.

I said you go OL first but if a receiver projected for the first drops to the second you have to take him.  Right now they have 4 of the top 70 picks.  You can go OL on 3 of the 4 but you have to get  him a number 1 receiver.

I would like the trade but right now I would go OL in first, OL in second, WR with the Williams pick and then OL with the regular 3rd.

Edoga at his natural position will be a quality player and I am not so sure  Harrison is not the solution at center.  Lewis was a great pickup from the Ravens and is a keeper.  The line is not good but there are some quality players and 3 of the first  70 picks can address it.  One has to be used on a receiver.

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Fix the oline first and then go for WRs and ED. Sam isn’t going to be able to beat a good team when he’s on his ass even with Thomas as the number one. They have to fix the oline. He seems to do well with Harrison at OC so concentrate on OT and OG. If you put a stud OG near Harrison he’ll be fine.  

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Jets sneak into the playoffs as the hottest team in the nfl. Then we shock the world. I’m thinking Creed Humphries with the 32nd pick. 
 

In the unlikely scenario we don’t win the Super Bowl and are picking 12ish, I say go with one of the top 3 OT. If one is not available, go with a WR. Really depends on FA though.

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As has been pointed out already this is kind of a layup. Don't draft anything but CB/DE/OT/WR the first two days. If they finish 2-0 0-3 or worse, Tua and Herbert should (but won't) be given serious consideration.

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Our WR core isn’t terrible as of now... yes it’d be nice to add a bonafide #1 stud. But if we resign Robby we’d have a cache of weapons that includes Bell, Robb, crowder, herdon, griffin, and berrios even has potential to be a nice piece as well. I think it’s time to sure up the offensive line in the first couple rounds then target receivers in the middle of the draft.

 

Look at the receivers drafted in the mid rounds this last draft who are all thriving: Metcalf, Isabella, Hardman , Deebo Samuel, McLaurin. 

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1 hour ago, Rob123 said:

At this point it is safe to say the Jets will likely not be picking in the top 10 and will likely have a mid first round pick. As far as receivers CeeDee Lamb, Henry Ruggs, and Tee Higgens are likely to be the  best on the board when  the Jets  pick with Alex Leatherwood, Jedrick Wills the best for the OL.

Now what do the Jets do?  Should they grab a receiver with their first pick or go with the  OL.  Josh Jones and Creed Humphrey are OL projected to go late in the first round.  Should the Jets hope one of them drops or hope a receiver drops to the second round?  It seems there are more projected receivers in the first round than OL and at this point I am thinking go OL with first pick because the pickings are slimmer and then hope one of the projected first round receiver falls.

This is what I would really like- I see the Jets finishing at  7-9 and not having  a top ten pick.  I say outside of the top ten it is a crap shoot and the difference between a guy drafted in the late first as opposed to the late second is minimal and often decided by the personal preferences of coaches and not talent.  It is not a given a receiver taken at 17 will be better than a guy taken at 40.  If you can't get one of the top 2 guys at a position, you are working with  a very similar talent pool after that.   

In this draft  I would rather see the Jets trade out of the first round and pick up an additional second and third rounder.  I use this scenario because unless someone falls I don't see a team looking to give up picks this year to swap with the Jets if they are at #18. Maybe a team would give a second rounder next year to move up from 24 but the Jets need picks this year.  I don't know they will get a receiver or OL in the middle of the first that would be much better than what is available in the second and third.  That would give the Jets 2 second rounders and 3 third rounders.  I think two additional picks would lead two two players just as good as who they could get with a mid first rounder.  Rather than getting the 4th best OL prospect at pick 18 I would rather get the 5th and 6th best prospects in the second, and the 8th in the third.  Darnold, Adams, Bell, Maye some would say Q Williams are star or going to be star players.  The Jets have their superstar core and now need to surround them with as much talent and depth as possible.  Both Maye and Bell were second round picks- you can find superstars there.  The potential of a mid first rounder vs a second rounder and the depth an extra third rounder would provide would have me making a trade like this.

Really  how great is this- the Jets have a FQB and are set at the position.  They are not going to have a premium pick to worry about screwing up for the first time in a while and Todd Bowles is not the Coach.  This is actually progress but brings with it something different- no guarantee of an impact draft pick or an ability to trade down and still keep a first rounder.  The mid first round picks are harder to hit on than a top 10 pick and they don't carry as much promise.

 

Sorry, drank a bottle of wine with dinner tonight, but wouldn't it be great at say our mid 1st round pick Tua was there and some team even with his injury would trade up multiple picks to get him. Unlikely but you never know.

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6 minutes ago, Rhg1084 said:

Our WR core isn’t terrible as of now... yes it’d be nice to add a bonafide #1 stud. But if we resign Robby we’d have a cache of weapons that includes Bell, Robb, crowder, herdon, griffin, and berrios even has potential to be a nice piece as well. I think it’s time to sure up the offensive line in the first couple rounds then target receivers in the middle of the draft.

 

Look at the receivers drafted in the mid rounds this last draft who are all thriving: Metcalf, Isabella, Hardman , Deebo Samuel, McLaurin. 

We also need more depth at CB and OLB.

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2 hours ago, Rob123 said:

Have to get him a receiver.  You have to give him a quality number 1 option because if you don't he won't reach his full potential.  I don't want him to be  Drew Bledsoe.

A quality receiver before a quality OLineman... I disagree... a good QB on his feet will find a receiver... a Great QB on his back will find none. 

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It’s going to be the best of the premium positions. Oline, Edge, Wide Receiver,  Corner. Our pick which is looking mid round, obviously limits our selection.

I see Douglas working free agency to pay someone like Brandon Scherff, since their no longer guaranteed a top lineman pick.

The Oline will be a two year project. The good news Bless Austin looks great, and Arthur Maulet look like a keeper.

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As has been pointed out already this is kind of a layup. Don't draft anything but CB/DE/OT/WR the first two days. If they finish 2-0 0-3 or worse, Tua and Herbert should (but won't) be given serious consideration.

 

Tua? With his injury history?

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3 hours ago, Rhg1084 said:

Our WR core isn’t terrible as of now... yes it’d be nice to add a bonafide #1 stud. But if we resign Robby we’d have a cache of weapons that includes Bell, Robb, crowder, herdon, griffin, and berrios even has potential to be a nice piece as well. I think it’s time to sure up the offensive line in the first couple rounds then target receivers in the middle of the draft.

 

Look at the receivers drafted in the mid rounds this last draft who are all thriving: Metcalf, Isabella, Hardman , Deebo Samuel, McLaurin. 

D. Thomas would be nice to have back as well, but agreed trade back if we can, otherwise  OL in 1st, and best of Edge, WR, or OL in 2nd.  Same for 3rd, but would consider CB as well  with one of two picks if a good one drops.

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It would be great if Harrison ends on a high note and we don't need a center. Jonathon Goodwin was a Jet center that we let walk and he won a Super Bowl with the Saints.

Scherff is going to be expensive but if JD can draft a contract that coincides with Sams future contract I'm sure we could handle it. Structure it with TJs contract being gone completely in 2021. 

Edoga could develop into a RT. He has the skills, he needs to get stronger which happens with age & a weight program. Olineman don't have to be 1st rounders but we have to start drafting some in the 1st 4 rounds. 

 

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If Joe Douglas feels he can build an OL without a 1st devoted to it I'd take CeeDee Lamb and never look back. Protecting Sam needs to be #1 so if that means spending our 1st and 2nd on OL then I endorse it.

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12 hours ago, Rob123 said:

At this point it is safe to say the Jets will likely not be picking in the top 10 and will likely have a mid first round pick. As far as receivers CeeDee Lamb, Henry Ruggs, and Tee Higgens are likely to be the  best on the board when  the Jets  pick with Alex Leatherwood, Jedrick Wills the best for the OL.

Now what do the Jets do?  Should they grab a receiver with their first pick or go with the  OL.  Josh Jones and Creed Humphrey are OL projected to go late in the first round.  Should the Jets hope one of them drops or hope a receiver drops to the second round?  It seems there are more projected receivers in the first round than OL and at this point I am thinking go OL with first pick because the pickings are slimmer and then hope one of the projected first round receiver falls.

This is what I would really like- I see the Jets finishing at  7-9 and not having  a top ten pick.  I say outside of the top ten it is a crap shoot and the difference between a guy drafted in the late first as opposed to the late second is minimal and often decided by the personal preferences of coaches and not talent.  It is not a given a receiver taken at 17 will be better than a guy taken at 40.  If you can't get one of the top 2 guys at a position, you are working with  a very similar talent pool after that.   

In this draft  I would rather see the Jets trade out of the first round and pick up an additional second and third rounder.  I use this scenario because unless someone falls I don't see a team looking to give up picks this year to swap with the Jets if they are at #18. Maybe a team would give a second rounder next year to move up from 24 but the Jets need picks this year.  I don't know they will get a receiver or OL in the middle of the first that would be much better than what is available in the second and third.  That would give the Jets 2 second rounders and 3 third rounders.  I think two additional picks would lead two two players just as good as who they could get with a mid first rounder.  Rather than getting the 4th best OL prospect at pick 18 I would rather get the 5th and 6th best prospects in the second, and the 8th in the third.  Darnold, Adams, Bell, Maye some would say Q Williams are star or going to be star players.  The Jets have their superstar core and now need to surround them with as much talent and depth as possible.  Both Maye and Bell were second round picks- you can find superstars there.  The potential of a mid first rounder vs a second rounder and the depth an extra third rounder would provide would have me making a trade like this.

 

 

Individual players notwithstanding, there is usually a very significant difference between the pool of players available with a late 1st and late 2nd round pick. Look at the success rate for both picks (I'm not talking about just the first 2-3 seasons, since 1st round picks get far more benefit of the doubt and a way longer leash, but rather who's still starting after 5 years). Go back 5+ years and look at picks 18-20 through 32 in round 1 and compare them to those slots in round 2. The difference is significant overall, and individual great players found in late round 2 doesn't negate that.

I'm in no position to grade any of these prospects - I couldn't name one of them without the internet - but don't get consumed over our top pick being enough to get only the 4th rated OL instead of the 2nd rated player at some other position. If the 4th rated OL pick will be a valuable mainstay on this line for a decade, he can still very much be the correct pick.

Think Dallas regrets taking Zach Martin with a mid-1st rounder? He was the 4th OL picked off the board. That 1st round pick of theirs came on the heels of what was in 2013 considered a massive reach to make Frederick the 8th OL taken with pick #31. But if you were another team who (like Dallas) perhaps saw what others didn't that year, and planned your draft on him slipping to your #40-ish pick in round 2 (a generally safe guess, as he had late 2nd and even 3rd round grades), you'd have lost out on a great young center who's still never missed so much as a single snap in 6 seasons. 

Hopefully Douglas worries about what we need, and what an individual prospect brings to this team, more than what someone else got ahead of us. Build the best team he can, not the best-rated draft class in May that usually doesn't hold up in hindsight anyway. That doesn't mean reach for need and end up with another Edoga or Ducasse; it just means grade the player on the prospect he is, not necessarily against the top 5-10 prospect he isn't. 

Also despite our high over these last 3 wins, it's possible but unlikely we'll be picking as low as 18, so there's also that. That's maybe our draft slot if we continue to run the tables and never lose another game after a 1-7 start.

Good thread, though. 👍

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This is a great thread - as we definitely will be picking outside the top 10.

The thing about the Oline in this draft is that its reasonably deep, along with WR being crazy deep.  If a player like Lamb is available I dont hate it, but ideally if we are in the 12-16 range Id like to see us move 10 or so spots and pick up a second rounder.  We can then take a WR in the first, and hit center (I love Creed Humphrey) and take an OT like Trey Adams and keep building the Oline with players like that. We can then look at guard and CB in the 3rd and get a good start at rebuilding those positions.

Now, the other thing is that there could be a franchise LT available at 12 depending on how Austin Jackson grades out and if he enters the draft and also if Tristan Wirfs is a LT or not.  Personally I love Jackson as he has a mean streak and elite traits and dont know much about Wirfs - but id also be ok with either of the picks to solidify LT for years and still use our 2nd on Hupmhrey.  

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Our second round pick should be in the middle of the wide receiver run in this draft.  Go offensive line in the first round.

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A lot of this depends on FA.  If we get a stud OL in FA or somehow squeeze in two then OL doesnt need to be taken in every round.  Grab one in the 1st if theres someone who deserves the slot, not force one into where we're picking over a WR who does.

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9 hours ago, Miss Lonelyhearts said:

As has been pointed out already this is kind of a layup. Don't draft anything but CB/DE/OT/WR the first two days. If they finish 2-0 0-3 or worse, Tua and Herbert should (but won't) be given serious consideration.

Looking at the Jets roster and the way Sam has played the end of last season and after he recovered from mono this season you'd pick a QB in the draft with our #1? Not OL, CB, Edge rusher or even a WR.

Where do rate Sam as a QB this season vs all other starting QB's?

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2 hours ago, jgb said:

huge needs are OL and backup QB. 

I'd prefer to pick up a veteran QB as the backup and not spend a draft pick.

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