2020 draft possibilities- Jets a movin and a shaken

[Rob123]

People liked the other thread so hopefully they will enjoy this one  as well.

It seems everyone agrees the Jets will likely have a mid first rounder which makes the draft strategy different this year.  What is interesting about mid second rounders is they are incredibly hard to predict because of a number of factors.

One factor happens every year- one team will see something in a player and overvalue him.  One of the nice things about a mid first rounder is that it is less likely that a team with one will do this.  I am certain one team will over draft a player early and that will impact many things including potential trade options.  Last year it was the Giants over valuing Jones that led to a number dominos to fall.  The Bills wanted to trade up for Ed Oliver and discussed it with the Jets, but they wound up with him at 9 because the Giants overvalued Jones.  The Giants took a DT in Lawrence in the first round after Jones so it was a position of need they that was deemed not as large a priority as Jones.  The Bills knew the Giants were taking Jones before the draft and didn't trade up as a result.  The Giants could have likely had Ed Oliver at 6 and Jones at 17 but they overvalued Jones.  This led to the Steelers trading up to 10 to get a guy they really liked but did not think would be available at 10.

There are many good OL prospects in this draft.  I am truly confident the Jets can build a monster line this year in the second and third round based on the players they already have.  I think Harrison, Lewis and Edoga will continue to get better and will be above average players.  Based on Jet needs and this draft it is the year to stockpile as many picks as possible.  This is why the price the Giants paid for Leonard was deemed so high- third rounders this year would be second rounders other years.

Realistically I see the Jets highest pick at number 13 and for some reason my gut says they get the 16th pick.  When a team inevitably overdrafts a guy boards will change.  Haskins fell to 15 last year and if it  happens with one of the QBs this year, I think you would have a team like the Saints, Patriots, Steelers or others seeing an opportunity to get their QB of the future while giving him time to learn.  Look at the Dolphins- if they have to take a D player and then Tua or someone else is their at 16, with their stockpile of picks they might be willing to give up a haul.  This happened last year- QB is a number 1 pick, another at 6 and all of a sudden a projected top 5 pick was there at 15.  Under those circumstances the Jets could conceivably trade down while getting a real haul.  The Steelers were not trading up for a QB and they paid.  If a QB falls it is possible the Jets could trade down in the first and receive a second and third rounder or second and fourth rounder in return.

If you look at this draft you can see this is a very realistic possibility.  If there was ever a team in the position to trade down because a player another team wants has fallen it is the 2020 NYJ.

It sounds great but is is a double edged sword and there is some risk. If they made no trades and kept all the picks they have now they can address all their needs and contend for the playoffs next year.  I truly believe they are not that far away.  There is the concern this won't happen until the draft and it would require the Jets to switch gears rather quickly.  This will be Douglas's first draft and every single gm makes a rookie mistake.  Many NFL executives will say that for a GM's first draft they should just have a plan and stick to it.  The Jets are not known to do this well as an organization.  I don't want a solid draft plan thrown into disarray, especially when I have faith that Douglas and Gase will come up with a good game plan.  The way the roster is constructed now I believe they will be a very good team next year if their needs are addressed with the picks they have. 

My prediction is Douglas's plan will involve stockpiling as many picks as possible. I don't know if people get how good a time it is to be a Jets fan- they have Sam Darnold and an upcoming draft over flowing with players to compliment him. I think Douglas will do his homework on a large group of players and is going to look to obtain as many picks in the second and third round as possible.  It will be interesting to see how he does this because if everything falls right he can trade down, still get the  player he wants in the first while picking up more picks.

[Apache 51]

Picks.

[Beerfish]

People want to stockpile picks but do not want to trade the players to do so.

We are also caught in the perpetual problem of having to spend big money in fa every year or so thus negating compensatory picks.

We may have a GM that will finally have the balls to trade down but our little win streak is going to hamper that.

[Bowles Movement]

Lewis is a free agent after this season so if the Jets feel he is a starter they will have to pay him considerably more to keep him.  Guess we will see how highly they value him after the season.  They might feel they can get a better starter in FA for just a little more

[joewilly12]

Is @Rob123  Manish Mehta or what? 

 

 

[Rob123]

1 minute ago, Beerfish said:

People want to stockpile picks but do not want to trade the players to do so.

We are also caught in the perpetual problem of having to spend big money in fa every year or so thus negating compensatory picks.

We may have a GM that will finally have the balls to trade down but our little win streak is going to hamper that.

Watching the defense the past few weeks has gotten me on board with not trading away guys.  The only one I would consider would be Q. Williams because I think he is Leonard Williams 2.0.  I think the Jets could trade Williams for a  number 1  and number 3 this year.  I think they could use the 1 on a DT to replace him without defense missing much and boom you have a free third round pick.

 

[Jets723]

4 minutes ago, Rob123 said:

Watching the defense the past few weeks has gotten me on board with not trading away guys.  The only one I would consider would be Q. Williams because I think he is Leonard Williams 2.0.  I think the Jets could trade Williams for a  number 1  and number 3 this year.  I think they could use the 1 on a DT to replace him without defense missing much and boom you have a free third round pick.

 

Im sorry I don't get this Leonard Williams 2.0 stuff.  Let the kid play a little bit before we sart that stuff.  Gotta be a little more patient than a handful of games and plus he has dealt with injuries too.  I understand he doenst have a huge sack numbers yet but the kid is young a talented. 

[BCJet]

3 minutes ago, Bowles Movement said:

Lewis is a free agent after this season so if the Jets feel he is a starter they will have to pay him considerably more to keep him.  Guess we will see how highly they value him after the season.  They might feel they can get a better starter in FA for just a little more

A guard of Lewis' ability is probably worth around $4-5 million per year.  I would love to see us extend him at something like 4 years $12 million.  Its a little low, but for a player who was traded and started the season as a backup, he may be inclined to take the security.

Id offer compton a 2 year $5 million deal - he is excellent insurance.

I dont think Id go crazy paying a guy like Sherff.  A player like Joe Haeg from the colts who is essentially the odd man out there could be signed for something similar to Lewis and can play both RG and RT.  

Keep Harrison (frankly extend him at his current deal and keep him as a backup center/guard for as long as possible).

The tricky part will be Shell.  Although people are excited about his potential, he hasn't played well and has work ethic concerns.  If we were to bring back Compton and sign a player like Haeg, we could let shell walk and hope Egoda improves enough to start or keep him as a swing tackle and Heag starts. 

Then we can focus our top 2 picks on a center and LT and look at the 3-5th round area to find a guard we can develop as depth to eventually replace Compton.  Trading down and picking up a second rounder and winding up with a Trey Adams, Creed Humphrey, and a WR would really improve the entire offense and take advantage of the depth in this draft.

[Beerfish]

4 minutes ago, Jets723 said:

Im sorry I don't get this Leonard Williams 2.0 stuff.  Let the kid play a little bit before we sart that stuff.  Gotta be a little more patient than a handful of games and plus he has dealt with injuries too.  I understand he doenst have a huge sack numbers yet but the kid is young a talented. 

He is the third overall pick in the draft not a 3rd rounder.  The jets made a big mistake not trading him considering the sounds of the offer at the deadline.  He has been beaten out at times for playing time and starting time by a rookie UDFA.

 

[Jets723]

Just now, Beerfish said:

He is the third overall pick in the draft not a 3rd rounder.  The jets made a big mistake not trading him considering the sounds of the offer at the deadline.  He has been beaten out at times for playing time and starting time by a rookie UDFA.

 

Agree to disagree.   Im sorry im not gonna just give up on a player after little more than half a season.  

[Beerfish]

3 minutes ago, Jets723 said:

Agree to disagree.   Im sorry im not gonna just give up on a player after little more than half a season.  

It's not a matter of giving up.  It is a matter of taking advantage of a chance to really upgrade our number and quality of draft picks so we can address other more important positions.

[Jets723]

3 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

It's not a matter of giving up.  It is a matter of taking advantage of a chance to really upgrade our number and quality of draft picks so we can address other more important positions.

To be honest we don't know what kind of offers they actually got.  For example The jets wanted 2 first or a first and tw seconds/Martin from the Cowboys and they were only offering a 1st and maybe 3rd.  adams obviously is a better player than Williams at this point so I don't think we were getting huge offers.  Smart thing to do is keep adams and Williams.  We have all our picks and a high 3rd rounder from the giants.  we can plug in holes on the OL and in the secondary the draft along with FA.  Im pretty confident right now!

[batman10023]

great post.  the only thing i would argue with is your point that second rounders are hard to predict - for the Jets it's quite easy - we haven't had a productive second rounder in like 9 out of the last 10 years!

[Beerfish]

2 minutes ago, Jets723 said:

To be honest we don't know what kind of offers they actually got.  For example The jets wanted 2 first or a first and tw seconds/Martin from the Cowboys and they were only offering a 1st and maybe 3rd.  adams obviously is a better player than Williams at this point so I don't think we were getting huge offers.  Smart thing to do is keep adams and Williams.  We have all our picks and a high 3rd rounder from the giants.  we can plug in holes on the OL and in the secondary the draft along with FA.  Im pretty confident right now!

"At least one organization made multiple offers for New York’s 2019 first-round pick, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter. An unnamed team “refusing to take no for an answer” offered a “blockbuster package of picks” for Williams, but the Jets ultimately said no. "

[Jets723]

1 minute ago, batman10023 said:

great post.  the only thing i would argue with is your point that second rounders are hard to predict - for the Jets it's quite easy - we haven't had a productive second rounder in like 9 out of the last 10 years!

Can't look it that way.  I mean I think Maye was a good pick until injuries crept up.  You gotta forget the past and focus on the future when it comes to picks is the way I feel

[Jets723]

Just now, Beerfish said:

"At least one organization made multiple offers for New York’s 2019 first-round pick, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter. An unnamed team “refusing to take no for an answer” offered a “blockbuster package of picks” for Williams, but the Jets ultimately said no. "

Look dude it really doenst matter.  Im not changing my position and you aren't changing yours.  Like I said lets agree to disagree and move on lol

[Gastineau Lives]

30 minutes ago, Rob123 said:

Watching the defense the past few weeks has gotten me on board with not trading away guys.  The only one I would consider would be Q. Williams because I think he is Leonard Williams 2.0.  I think the Jets could trade Williams for a  number 1  and number 3 this year.  I think they could use the 1 on a DT to replace him without defense missing much and boom you have a free third round pick.

 

Yeah. Boom. Unreal.

[lounap23]

13 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

It's not a matter of giving up.  It is a matter of taking advantage of a chance to really upgrade our number and quality of draft picks so we can address other more important positions.

I don't think you realize what Q is doing now that he is healthier.   The effect he has in the role he is playing with the current scheme Williams is playing is very good. And he hasn't even hit his 22nd bday yet.  And to your point, we should have traded him because of the reported offers, stop and think about that for 1 second.    Let me put your quote here again for you to read and maybe let's read into from another paradigm:

"At least one organization made multiple offers for New York’s 2019 first-round pick, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter. An unnamed team “refusing to take no for an answer” offered a “blockbuster package of picks” for Williams, but the Jets ultimately said no. "

I guess maybe Q is just that good and his potential is that big that other teams realize that and tried to strike thinking the Jet were gonna tear it down.   When the fact is the Jets know exactly what they got and what they will do to build around the pieces they have. The Kid hasn't even scratched his surface yet.   8 games into his career you do not trade the potential away.  

[joewilly12]

1 minute ago, lounap23 said:

"At least one organization made multiple offers for New York’s 2019 first-round pick, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter. An unnamed team “refusing to take no for an answer” offered a “blockbuster package of picks” for Williams, but the Jets ultimately said no. "

We should have cut bait and moved on. Hoping he shows up sooner or later. 

[Spoot-Face]

42 minutes ago, Rob123 said:

Watching the defense the past few weeks has gotten me on board with not trading away guys.  The only one I would consider would be Q. Williams because I think he is Leonard Williams 2.0.  I think the Jets could trade Williams for a  number 1  and number 3 this year.  I think they could use the 1 on a DT to replace him without defense missing much and boom you have a free third round pick.

 

Trading Quinnen Williams for a 1st+ and turning around and using that 1 on another DT would be so Mike Maccagnan it's not even funny.

[Jetster]

7 minutes ago, joewilly12 said:

We should have cut bait and moved on. Hoping he shows up sooner or later. 

I've put the numbers up B4 of Warren Sapp in his 1st year. Not great. QW is way quicker off the ball than Leo, at least let him learn, my god. 

[Ohhthepain]

25 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

"At least one organization made multiple offers for New York’s 2019 first-round pick, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter. An unnamed team “refusing to take no for an answer” offered a “blockbuster package of picks” for Williams, but the Jets ultimately said no. "

Should have taken that offer 

[Ohhthepain]

Dont forget to account for the extra 1st and 2 second round picks we are going to get for Jamal Adams.

[joewilly12]

2 minutes ago, Jetster said:

I've put the numbers up B4 of Warren Sapp in his 1st year. Not great. QW is way quicker off the ball than Leo, at least let him learn, my god. 

Like I said hoping he shows up. 

[Beerfish]

7 minutes ago, lounap23 said:

I don't think you realize what Q is doing now that he is healthier.   The effect he has in the role he is playing with the current scheme Williams is playing is very good. And he hasn't even hit his 22nd bday yet.  And to your point, we should have traded him because of the reported offers, stop and think about that for 1 second.    Let me put your quote here again for you to read and maybe let's read into from another paradigm:

"At least one organization made multiple offers for New York’s 2019 first-round pick, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter. An unnamed team “refusing to take no for an answer” offered a “blockbuster package of picks” for Williams, but the Jets ultimately said no. "

I guess maybe Q is just that good and his potential is that big that other teams realize that and tried to strike thinking the Jet were gonna tear it down.   When the fact is the Jets know exactly what they got and what they will do to build around the pieces they have. The Kid hasn't even scratched his surface yet.   8 games into his career you do not trade the potential away.  

Hey he 'might' be a really good player or he may be leo williams.  A guy that is 'close' to doing something for years.  We have guys who are doing well other than him and bringing in a DT that is okay to good in Fa is much easier than premium positions.

Block buster package, which probably means at least 3 picks and one of them being a 1st so if we were offered a 1st and 3rd this year and a 2nd next year we have a chance to really make over this team in a couple of years at the cost of a DT who may be pretty good.

For sure worth the risk.  The best DT in football is being neutralized this year.

 

[Jets723]

2 minutes ago, Jetster said:

I've put the numbers up B4 of Warren Sapp in his 1st year. Not great. QW is way quicker off the ball than Leo, at least let him learn, my god. 

Agreed.  I think som are just paranoid about Leonard Williams at this point lol.  

[batman10023]

30 minutes ago, Jets723 said:

Can't look it that way.  I mean I think Maye was a good pick until injuries crept up.  You gotta forget the past and focus on the future when it comes to picks is the way I feel

LOL, Maye was the 1 out of 10 that was okay.  we have to go back 12 years to find a good 2nd round pick.

[Jets723]

1 minute ago, batman10023 said:

LOL, Maye was the 1 out of 10 that was okay.  we have to go back 12 years to find a good 2nd round pick.

Ok…..but again like I said cant focus on the past.  

[derp]

Interesting tackle draft. Thomas may not be on the board at this rate. Wirfs and Wills potentially 2-3 but both on the right side in college I believe. Jackson apparently a great athlete, that program isn’t excelling right now but he probably has a wide range. Leatherwood is the LT on Wills’ team. And I’m sure others will emerge.

Pretty clear cut need right now. Curious if Douglas is willing to take it into the draft.

[Jetscode1]

Too many just want to see the churn I guess. 

Let's become the team that only lives to draft.  Draft BPA then trade said player eight games in. 

Then hold another fire sale.  This way we can attain as many draft picks as possible.  Break our record from 2000 when we had four first rounders.  

Wouldn't change the W-L record but the draftniks would love the churn.  I mean, we love to analyze draft position and play Jimmy Johnson after the Herschel trade.

Probably make print media relevant again.

Right Manish?

[David Harris]

I love that Sam Darnold will be entering his 3rd NFL season and is younger than Joe Burrow, the LSU QB projected as the #1 overall pick.  Sam will also be younger than Baker Mayfield at the time he was drafted.

 

I’ll be ok if the first round pick is pass rusher or WR and not OL BECAUSE I THINK VALUE of the first round is important but I trust that JD will hit early and often on OL.  We need 2 if the top 3 picks at minimum to be OL.

[Rob123]

2 hours ago, Jets723 said:

Can't look it that way.  I mean I think Maye was a good pick until injuries crept up.  You gotta forget the past and focus on the future when it comes to picks is the way I feel

What is the deal with past tense- I think Maye will be productive  for awhile.

[shevys]

29 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

"At least one organization made multiple offers for New York’s 2019 first-round pick, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter. An unnamed team “refusing to take no for an answer” offered a “blockbuster package of picks” for Williams, but the Jets ultimately said no. "

So obviously the organization still feels like he’s someone of value. Good. There’s nothing wrong with him learning a bit and getting some experience. Now if he doesn’t produce next season it’s a different story. 

[Jet_Engine1]

1 hour ago, Jetscode1 said:

Too many just want to see the churn I guess. 

Let's become the team that only lives to draft.  Draft BPA then trade said player eight games in. 

Then hold another fire sale.  This way we can attain as many draft picks as possible.  Break our record from 2000 when we had four first rounders.  

Wouldn't change the W-L record but the draftniks would love the churn.  I mean, we love to analyze draft position and play Jimmy Johnson after the Herschel trade.

Probably make print media relevant again.

Right Manish?

The Churn? Expanse fan?

 

We can be friends. 

[Beerfish]

22 minutes ago, shevys said:

So obviously the organization still feels like he’s someone of value. Good. There’s nothing wrong with him learning a bit and getting some experience. Now if he doesn’t produce next season it’s a different story. 

At which time you have no trade offers of note for him.