The Class of '18 QBs are really Only as Good as their Situations

[Losmeister]

24 minutes ago, JiF said:

hat a 22 year old QB, on his 2nd head coach, in his 2nd system, who has started 22 games, with injuries all over

was a while back that I mentioned Alex Smith...  he went at least 5 yrs consecutive w/ changing OCs...  but he gradually played better and better.,..

[Dinamite]

2 hours ago, Warfish said:

You're right, QB's and their production is usually directly related to their circumstances, modified by their own ability to raise those around them to a higher level.

I like examples, lets use examples!

One of the QB's below was a first round pick who has played under multiple coaches, including one of the worst coaches ever, has suffered under a horrible O-line with not nearly enough time, has limited and/or weak Offensive weapons, has missed time due to injuries and other causes, for a bad bad team under poor management and a meddlesome owner.  Has been accused of having happy feet at times, and holding the ball too long by some.

The other QB below was a first round pick who played under multiple coaches, including one of the worst coaches ever, had suffered under a horrible O-line with not nearly enough time, had limited and/or weak Offensive weapons, had missed time due to injuries and other causes, playing for a bad, bad team under poor management with a meddlesome owner.  Was accused of having happy feet and holding the ball too long by some.

QB #1

23 Starts to begin career, 9 wins, 14 losses, 465 for 836 (55.6%) for 5,370 Yards (6.4 YPA), 33 TD's, 28 INT's, Sacked 71 times.

QB #2

22 Starts to begin career, 8 wins, 14 losses, 435 for 725 (60.0%) for 5,019 Yards (6.9 YPA), 30 TD's, 25 INT's, Sacked 57 times.

Startlingly similar stat lines.

As I always hoped for one, that he would get a real opportunity to show that he was better than his stat-line showed, I still hope the same for the second, active, QB.

Interesting, who is QB 1? David Carr? Brady Quinn?

[JustInFudge]

54 minutes ago, slats said:

It's true. I'd never seen a coverage sack before. 

I didn't bring any agenda in here other than to point out that you can rank the QBs from the '18 draft from top to bottom by the stability they've enjoyed the first two years. It's not an excuse for Darnold, but the "no weaponzzzz," crowd loves to dismiss that football is the ultimate team game. And simple-minded people like to find one thing or person to blame. There's plenty of blame to go around for what's going wrong with the Jets (or the Browns, or the fish, etc.), just as there's credit to spread around for teams like the Ravens and Bills this year. 

Sam has to get better, and the team has to get better. People can whine all they want about it, but Darnold & Gase are both gonna be here next season. I'm gonna hope they improve, and root for them to. I hope Gase really is good at offense, and that another year in the same system generates a big jump for Sam next year. Why? Because I really prefer that to bitching and moaning.  

Well said.  I'll never understand the need to isolate blame or fame around here when everyone knows this game more than any other is predicated on the team rather than the individual.  It's why we love the sport.

HC's and QB's will always get more credit and more blame than they deserve, so that's too be expected but for some reason it still baffles in me how in one hand you can say - this is the worst team in Football and Mac was the worst GM ever.  And in the other say - Adam Gase and Sam Darnold are terrible and need to be replaced.  Bad teams are inconsistent and are up and down week to week because they're bad Football teams.  Expecting Gase and Darnold to instantly click and overcome the lack of talent is kind of a ridiculous ask. 

I understand having concerns with what you're seeing but for the sake of this argument, I think that's where comparisons really arent fair.  Lamar Jackson coming into a great franchise like the Ravens with a Super Bowl winning Head Coach who has been in place for 11 years isnt exactly the same as Sam Darnold playing for one of the worst franchises in all of sports with Todd Bowles and Adam Gase in his first 2 seasons with his 2nd GM on arguably the least talented team in the NFL.  

[Warfish]

32 minutes ago, Dinamite said:

Interesting, who is QB 1? David Carr? Brady Quinn?

Patrick Ramsey.  

Played for the abyssmal Steve Spurrior-led Redskins in his QB-of-the day system before being inherited by Joe Gibbs (who dumped him for his own guy, future Jet and former all-pro Mark Brunell, who was materially worse his first year in DC, but did pretty good in Gibbs second year after Ramsey was benched and the team in many ways completely rebuilt by Gibbs).

Played behind an O-line that makes ours look like All-Pros.  Sacked 71 times in those first 23 games, some on him, most on the line.  Dude was beat down.  

Played with almost no legit Offensive skill players for that era, guys like a declining Rod Gardner, Trung Candidate, Darnerian McCants, Zeron Flemister, and their one shining light for one of Ramsey's years, in .... a certain ex-Jet named Lavernius Coleslaw.  He had Stephen Davis his first year at RB (before he was cut loose), but Davis was hurt that year and limited.  He had Clinton Portis, who WAS quite good in his third year (Portis's first with DC), a Bell equivalent for the era (and a similar big signing at the time after Portis left Denver).  

I watched alot of those games.  Always liked Ramsey, felt he had a raw deal in DC.

And now, ironicly, Sam Darnold has put up a first 22 games that is an almost mirror image of the first 23 games of Patrick Ramsey.  Darnold is materially more accurate, but not more productive, and with a near-exact balance of TD's to INT's as Ramsey.  And Darnold got sacked and pressured a hell of alot less.

Darnold is 1000x the prospect Ramsey ever was.  And I have no doubt he will go on and do better.  But in very similar circumstances, with very similar bad teams, and horrible O-line, and limited O-skill players, under poor coaches (Bowles, Spurrior), and multiple systems, with injuries, and a boatload of sacks, with a penchant to hold it too long and have happy feet, these two QB's put up almost exactly the same yards, wins and TD's/INT's.  

It's amazing.  Slats is right, it's hard to win or produce in this circumstance.

Unlike Ramsey, whose career was effectively over after Gibbs dumped him, Darnold will get at least another two full seasons (IMO) to prove he can do better.

 

[JustInFudge]

52 minutes ago, bitonti said:

there's a middle ground between "playing at an elite level" and "missing a month by getting the kissing disease from sweathogs" 

Sam Darnold gets no more benefit of the doubt 

it's time to grow up and be a professional i.e. don't celebrate like it's 99 when you're 4-7 

I kind of feel like a fair middle ground is improving in every single passing category from year 1 to 2 and actually getting one of the worst teams in the NFL to a 4-5 record when you're the starter.

But hey, that's just me.

[JustInFudge]

46 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

was a while back that I mentioned Alex Smith...  he went at least 5 yrs consecutive w/ changing OCs...  but he gradually played better and better.,..

Darnold looks considerably better than Smith at this point in their careers. 

[Miss Lonelyhearts]

2 minutes ago, JiF said:

I kind of feel like a fair middle ground is improving in every single passing category from year 1 to 2 and actually getting one of the worst teams in the NFL to a 4-5 record when you're the starter.

But hey, that's just me.

2018 DVOA: -15.2%

2019 DVOA: -16.7%

[JustInFudge]

Just now, Miss Lonelyhearts said:

2018 DVOA: -15.2%

2019 DVOA: -16.7%

Cool.

He's up in comp %, up in YPG, up in TD %, down in INT % and has as many wins in less games than he did last season.

Oh and he's up in all those categories despite playing for an injury plagued team who happens to be the worst team in the NFL developed by the worst GM in the history of the league.

[14 in Green]

2 hours ago, JiF said:

All I know about the 2018 QB class is Bakery Mayflower is terrible at everything he does and his commercials are even worse.

I

Quite the conundrum isn’t it?

The douchey guy who plays in Cleveland, of all places, got all the “terrible” commercials.

The young clean cut kid who plays in the media capital of the world, practically on top of Madison Avenue got nothing but mono.

Life can be so unfair. The guys who are terrible at everything always win...

[#27TheDominator]

10 minutes ago, 14 in Green said:

Quite the conundrum isn’t it?

The douchey guy who plays in Cleveland, of all places, got all the “terrible” commercials.

The young clean cut kid who plays in the media capital of the world, practically on top of Madison Avenue got nothing but mono.

Life can be so unfair. The guys who are terrible at everything always win...

He's 5-7.  My ******* hero. 

[JustInFudge]

2 minutes ago, 14 in Green said:

Quite the conundrum isn’t it?

The douchey guy who played in Cleveland, of all places last year, got all the “terrible” commercials.

The young clean cut kid who plays in the media capital of the world, practically on Madison Avenue got nothing but mono.

Life can be cruel.

Are you saying that because the Heisman winning, first overall pick draws a lot of attention to himself by running around like a lunatic after anytime he scores a TD so he gets more commercials than other QB's in the class including the New York Jets QB that he's better than the rest?  

Weird way of looking at it but right on!  Not sure how this make life cruel but try to keep your chin up! 

 

[14 in Green]

35 minutes ago, JiF said:

Are you saying that because the Heisman winning, first overall pick draws a lot of attention to himself by running around like a lunatic after anytime he scores a TD so he gets more commercials than other QB's in the class including the New York Jets QB that he's better than the rest?  

Weird way of looking at it but right on!  Not sure how this make life cruel but try to keep your chin up! 

 

I didn’t think that’s what I was saying, but what the heck, I’ll go with it.

He’s not having a very good year, and I need something... ?

[Dinamite]

I am not sure we are not grasping at straws here.   Pretty much most of the 2018 QBs (outside of Rosen and Rudolph) have done ok to great (Lamar).  I think they all have a future in the league as starters and their potential can only be enriched by the conditions of their organizations .  Hopefully Sam reaches his potential and becomes the franchise QB the Jets need.   But I am hopeful he will and it will be fun to watch these other QBs as well. 

[14 in Green]

15 minutes ago, Dinamite said:

I am not sure we are not grasping at straws here.   Pretty much most of the 2018 QBs (outside of Rosen and Rudolph) have done ok to great (Lamar).  I think they all have a future in the league as starters and their potential can only be enriched by the conditions of their organizations .  Hopefully Sam reaches his potential and becomes the franchise QB the Jets need.   But I am hopeful he will and it will be fun to watch these other QBs as well. 

I agree with you.

I also think all four organizations feel like they got the right man for their team, and wouldn’t change anything if they could pick again.

[jgb]

Talk about results-based analysis. 

[Jetscode1]

4 hours ago, IndianaJet said:

Tom Brady would be selling insurance right now and married to some heffer named Martha if he were drafted by the Jets.

I'd watch that as a reality show fwiw.

[Eyes Of Adam]

3 hours ago, RutgersJetFan said:

This. The most preposterous part about all of this is the constant harping on sacks to the line. There is an overwhelming amount of info over the years out there about sacks being a quarterback stat, and the data is pretty easy to comprehend. It's almost indisputable at this point. Grown men grasping to their arbitrary favorite football players really has some bizarre boundaries.

Yo, I think you are really onto something. I was watching the game with my boy, and he kept saying how bad our Oline is. And I was saying no, the line is actually fantastic, one of the best, and its Sam Darnold that makes them look bad. He has WR open like mad, and instead of throwing it to them, he just holds it and sits around forever until the other team sacks him. I think you are right, the Oline is actually fantastic. Can you send me some of the easy to comprehend, indisputable evidence so I can prove this to my dumb friend who thinks its the line?

[Eyes Of Adam]

3 hours ago, JiF said:

This thread highlights my very favorite dynamic that has formed on this board.

The know it all crowd has firmly placed Darnold in the bust category and legit (just read the thread) blame him for everything going wrong on this offense ie: he's to blame for sacks.  lmfao.  Those same know it alls, routinely call this the least talented team in the league and that big Mac was the worst GM in the history of the league.  So, those very same smooth brains are basically claiming that a 22 year old QB, on his 2nd head coach, in his 2nd system, who has started 22 games, with injuries all over the worst roster in the league, should be overcoming all those facts, by playing at an elite level and proving that he's the best of the bunch.

Jetnation baby!!!!  

I guess you missed the part where he declared it was indisputable? For real, there are a bunch of clowns who know nothing, but think they are smarter than everyone else, and are making this board rough to read.

[Losmeister]

2 hours ago, JiF said:

Darnold looks considerably better than Smith at this point in their careers. 

wonr argue.. i think he still has a chance...   just keep progressing...

[Miss Lonelyhearts]

30 minutes ago, Eyes Of Adam said:

Yo, I think you are really onto something. I was watching the game with my boy, and he kept saying how bad our Oline is. And I was saying no, the line is actually fantastic, one of the best, and its Sam Darnold that makes them look bad. He has WR open like mad, and instead of throwing it to them, he just holds it and sits around forever until the other team sacks him. I think you are right, the Oline is actually fantastic. Can you send me some of the easy to comprehend, indisputable evidence so I can prove this to my dumb friend who thinks its the line?

People who are too invested in their feelings to look stuff up for themselves aren't generally going to be open to persuasion if you do it for them. I'd say lose the friend.

[Eyes Of Adam]

16 minutes ago, Miss Lonelyhearts said:

People who are too invested in their feelings to look stuff up for themselves aren't generally going to be open to persuasion if you do it for them. I'd say lose the friend.

Yo Lonze, help a brother out, dont' want to lose my boy, he makes the best wings ever. Get me the indisputable evidence so I can show him our line is actually the goods. I googled it but coudn't find it.

[ryu79]

1 hour ago, Dinamite said:

I am not sure we are not grasping at straws here.   Pretty much most of the 2018 QBs (outside of Rosen and Rudolph) have done ok to great (Lamar).  I think they all have a future in the league as starters and their potential can only be enriched by the conditions of their organizations .  Hopefully Sam reaches his potential and becomes the franchise QB the Jets need.   But I am hopeful he will and it will be fun to watch these other QBs as well. 

This. Well said. This!

[SomebodytoAnybody47]

3 hours ago, JiF said:

Well said.  I'll never understand the need to isolate blame or fame around here when everyone knows this game more than any other is predicated on the team rather than the individual.  It's why we love the sport.

HC's and QB's will always get more credit and more blame than they deserve, so that's too be expected but for some reason it still baffles in me how in one hand you can say - this is the worst team in Football and Mac was the worst GM ever.  And in the other say - Adam Gase and Sam Darnold are terrible and need to be replaced.  Bad teams are inconsistent and are up and down week to week because they're bad Football teams.  Expecting Gase and Darnold to instantly click and overcome the lack of talent is kind of a ridiculous ask. 

I understand having concerns with what you're seeing but for the sake of this argument, I think that's where comparisons really arent fair.  Lamar Jackson coming into a great franchise like the Ravens with a Super Bowl winning Head Coach who has been in place for 11 years isnt exactly the same as Sam Darnold playing for one of the worst franchises in all of sports with Todd Bowles and Adam Gase in his first 2 seasons with his 2nd GM on arguably the least talented team in the NFL.  

Lol Jesus. Just reading “Todd Bowles and Adam Gase” back to back like that is terrifying. I pray for Sams career. 

[RutgersJetFan]

30 minutes ago, Miss Lonelyhearts said:

People who are too invested in their feelings to look stuff up for themselves aren't generally going to be open to persuasion if you do it for them. I'd say lose the friend.

I see NoBowles has found a new handle.

[Maxman]

4 hours ago, bitonti said:

there's a middle ground between "playing at an elite level" and "missing a month by getting the kissing disease from sweathogs" 

Sam Darnold gets no more benefit of the doubt 

it's time to grow up and be a professional i.e. don't celebrate like it's 99 when you're 4-7 

[slats]

6 hours ago, #27TheDominator said:

Didn't he hand pick that head coach?  He is on his 3rd head coach.  He got the first on fired and then campaigned to pick the 3rd over the 2nd.  Poor guy!  These problems certainly weren't of his choosing. If only they had traded for a top WR and signed him a pro-bowl RB that was averaging over 100 yards from scrimmage and almost a TD per game for his career.  

Lol, yeah, but doesn’t that speak to the instability of his situation? You’ve got a first year QB lobbying for his OC to be named head coach to a GM who’s more than happy to promote a guy to head coach who won’t be any threat to his authority, but he’ll also hand pick a new OC just to hedge his bets. 

[Maxman]

35 minutes ago, Eyes Of Adam said:

Yo Lonze, help a brother out, dont' want to lose my boy, he makes the best wings ever. Get me the indisputable evidence so I can show him our line is actually the goods. I googled it but coudn't find it.

Bu-Bye. I feel like your time could be better spent trying to "Fire the Johnsons" which is needed because the Jets aren't getting better even though they have "No Bowles".

[T0mShane]

1 hour ago, Eyes Of Adam said:

Yo, I think you are really onto something. I was watching the game with my boy, and he kept saying how bad our Oline is. And I was saying no, the line is actually fantastic, one of the best, and its Sam Darnold that makes them look bad. He has WR open like mad, and instead of throwing it to them, he just holds it and sits around forever until the other team sacks him. I think you are right, the Oline is actually fantastic. Can you send me some of the easy to comprehend, indisputable evidence so I can prove this to my dumb friend who thinks its the line?

I think two things are true: the OL sucks and Darnold loses his confidence way too easily. There’s overlap there, but Darnold has to figure his brain out before we sign him to a second contract

[Philc1]

I remember watching Lamar Jackson get murdered behind a bad Oline in Louisville couple years ago

[Philc1]

8 hours ago, T0mShane said:

I think two things are true: the OL sucks and Darnold loses his confidence way too easily. There’s overlap there, but Darnold has to figure his brain out before we sign him to a second contract

When Darnold has semi decent protection we score 30+ points with him throwing to average WRs

[#27TheDominator]

16 hours ago, RutgersJetFan said:

This. The most preposterous part about all of this is the constant harping on sacks to the line. There is an overwhelming amount of info over the years out there about sacks being a quarterback stat, and the data is pretty easy to comprehend. It's almost indisputable at this point. Grown men grasping to their arbitrary favorite football players really has some bizarre boundaries.

What about the complete lack of a run game?  Is that Darnold's fault too? The offensive line is terrible.  I am sure that many sacks are the result of the QB holding the ball too long or not hitting his hot reads, but it isn't the sacks that make people feel for Darnold, it is the instant pressure from multiple sides.  I don't think he looked particularly bad against the Bengals.  He has in most of the other debacles. 

13 hours ago, 14 in Green said:

I agree with you.

I also think all four organizations feel like they got the right man for their team, and wouldn’t change anything if they could pick again.

All four?!?!  You think the Cardinals feel like they got the right man for their team?  Then why did they trade him and start over ASAP? I doubt they would trade their 2018 first, third and fifth for a pick in the bottom of the 2019 second round. 

[RutgersJetFan]

2 hours ago, #27TheDominator said:

What about the complete lack of a run game?  Is that Darnold's fault too? The offensive line is terrible.  I am sure that many sacks are the result of the QB holding the ball too long or not hitting his hot reads, but it isn't the sacks that make people feel for Darnold, it is the instant pressure from multiple sides.  I don't think he looked particularly bad against the Bengals.  He has in most of the other debacles.

Sure, there are many facets to a game. Sacks, specifically, however are a QB driven stat.

[#27TheDominator]

4 hours ago, RutgersJetFan said:

Sure, there are many facets to a game. Sacks, specifically, however are a QB driven stat.

Fair enough.  IMO, many of the sacks are on Darnold, but way more sh*tty pass plays are on him running for his life to escape pressure.  I think many posters complain about sacks when they mean to complain about the level of pressure.

[jgb]

Good QBs make their situations.

[Matt39]

22 hours ago, Miss Lonelyhearts said:

2018 DVOA: -15.2%

2019 DVOA: -16.7%

*2019 DVOA: -22.1%