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RonaldJet

Sam Darnold third highest pff grade since week 10

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9 hours ago, Green Truth said:

My biggest issues with Sam. his deep ball accuracy is terrible.  That pass to Robbie was under thrown, the pass to DT was overthrown.   The second problem is he will not run when necessary,  I do not  know if its the foot injury or if he is just afraid to get hit.  His short to intermediate game is OK.  He also can not press when things are not going well.  When he presses bad things happen.  It's like he is trying to score 14 points on one play. He had one of those moments on Sunday and the defender dropped the ball.  Would I call it a bad game no, more mediocre than bad.

If he comes out of the season after the illness with 20+ touchdowns and limits the TO's he may be on his way, he is still a baby in NFL years.  So lets see if he turns the corner in year 3 with better personnel in front of him.

Thomas slowed down as he was running then tried to speed back up but couldn’t make up for lost ground and barely missed it

The pass to Robbie was slightly under thrown but completed. Better than slightly too long

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10 hours ago, Untouchable said:

Why not judge with your eyes?

This is why I hate this analytics crap.

Boiling down athletics to a bunch of percentages and equations.

If you’re expecting Darnold to consistently look like Montana with this dogsh*t roster then I don’t know what to tell you.

He’s a 22 year old kid who exhibits elite traits throwing the football on one of the least talented teams in the league.

Build up the OL and give him another legit receiver besides Crowder and then you can more properly judge him.

The problem with eye tests is they are highly susceptible to bias, it's why just about every NFL teams fans think the refs cheat thier team disproportionally.

In this instance, if your eye test doesnt turn up troubling aspects of Sam's play you are biased, plan and simple. Its ok, you are a fan, you are desperate for Sam to be good  because all kinds of good things for this team are attached to that so it makes sense.

Analytics / stats are less susceptible to bias and normally a better judge of what's actually happening than what a fan thinks they see (or hopes in this case) 

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The further we get from the game the easier it is for trolls to try and spin this as a bad game for Darnold. There is a reason no one was saying this immediately after the game...

the only thing I saw from Sam which he should work on, is that the bengals consistently were giving up huge lanes for him to run and he didn’t take it. 

other than that, he played a clean game. The Robby and berrios drops were huge. 

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42 minutes ago, CTM said:

The problem with eye tests is they are highly susceptible to bias, it's why just about every NFL teams fans think the refs cheat thier team disproportionally.

In this instance, if your eye test doesnt turn up troubling aspects of Sam's play you are biased, plan and simple. Its ok, you are a fan, you are desperate for Sam to be good  because all kinds of good things for this team are attached to that so it makes sense.

Analytics / stats are less susceptible to bias and normally a better judge of what's actually happening than what a fan thinks they see (or hopes in this case) 

This is a public service announcement brought your way by the people who are going to pay Zack Wheeler $100mm .

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Guys, this is fairly straight forward. When the OL has played well this year, Darnold has looked like a franchise QB. When the OL has not played well, Darnold has not played as well. 

Let's look at Football Outsiders OL rankings:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol/2019 (as of 12/03/2019)

Best pass blocking OLs:

1) Dallas (Dak is having a career year)

2) Rams (Goff has been up and down this year)

3) Steelers (in playoff contention with Duck Hodges and Mason Rudolph at QB)

4) KC (Mahomes)

5) Oakland (Carr has resurrected his career this year)

Worst pass blocking OLs:

32) Tenn (Mariota got benched, but Tannehill has been pretty good)

31) Washington (Haskins and the other QBs have struggled)

30) Jets

29) Miami (Fitz has been better the past few weeks, but struggled earlier as did Rosen)

28) Carolina (Kyle Allen has come back to earth and the coach just got fired

BTW, who are the only teams in the bottom 5 in both run blocking and pass blocking? The Jets and Dolphins. 

I repeat, nothing is more important than fixing the OL this off season. 2 premium free agent signings and 2 OL picked in the teams first 4 picks. I'm fairly optimistic that Joe Douglas understands this and will get it done. 

 

 

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11 hours ago, HawkeyeJet said:

I likely will take some grief for this post, but that's ok.  I want to have a legitimate discussion and hopefully some folks will expand on their views so I can maybe get a better idea of why they think that.

My question is, if you are someone who believes yesterday was a really bad game for Sam, why do you think that?

I have watched the offensive possessions twice now, and what I see is very mediocre game from Sam.  He was not good, but he wasn't bad either, in my opinion.  He missed a throw or two, had a drop or two, and threw a few from weird positions that looked bad.  All in all though, what was it yesterday that would make someone say it was a "bad" game from him?  Inaccuracy?  Decision making?  Too conservative?

Certainly not a meltdown game, but wasn’t sharp either. The throw to Anderson was a duck . His arm looked significantly weaker than Daltons. Not sure if it’s a weather thing, but he’s gonna have to some cut some passes through the cold/elements to succeed in the December. 48 passes and playing from behind against a bad defense and not 1 trip to the red zone is pretty difficult to pull off. 

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13 hours ago, RonaldJet said:

PFF is just another arbitrary metric (they have Dwayne Haskins graded average whereas ESPNs QBR has him rated as the worst passer in NFL history).

Despite grading out well over the past four weeks they still have Sam rated as one of the worst QBs in the NFL this season. Pretty much tells the story of his career so far. He has stretches where he plays terrific (and you think things have finally clicked), but the overall body of work sucks. 

The Darnold believers will tell you his coaching staff and supporting cast are holding him back. The Darnold skeptics like myself will cite serious flaws in his game which many NFL defenses can exploit. 

My prediction is after next year we will be looking for a new QB as the Sam Darnold experience will be defined:

2-Awesome Games

4-Quality Games 

4-Average Games 

4-Bad Games

2-Hideous Games

 

 

 

The last thing PFF's metrics would be is arbitrary.

I think you dont understand what that word means. 

And Darnold's coaching and accompanying personnel is keeping him from maximizing his talent. However, the problem from the get go was his potential. Sam wasn't as great a prospect as folks proclaimed, and because of that, his talent isnt able to compensate for having a bad team and coach around him.

However, if Sam was a Chief he'd probably be a top 15 to top 10 QB in the league given coaching and talent.

One of Sam's main problems is his fluttering deep ball. This guy cannot throw a deep ball to lead the receiver consistently to save his life.

A terrible Jets team cannot win with Sam. A team with talent can win with Sam. PFF isnt arbitrary in any sense of the word. 

Im not going to hate on your conclusion because it's possible, however, that possibility will be largely based on the incompetence of this franchise and not that Sam was just a terrible QB from jump. Anyone here who knows me would tell you, I didn't like Sam in college. However, my eyes have seen enough of him in the pros to know that this kid has the ability, he's just not a "savior" the way many fans have annointed him. That's really the problem. 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, maury77 said:

Guys, this is fairly straight forward. When the OL has played well this year, Darnold has looked like a franchise QB. When the OL has not played well, Darnold has not played as well. 

Let's look at Football Outsiders OL rankings:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol/2019 (as of 12/03/2019)

Best pass blocking OLs:

1) Dallas (Dak is having a career year)

2) Rams (Goff has been up and down this year)

3) Steelers (in playoff contention with Duck Hodges and Mason Rudolph at QB)

4) KC (Mahomes)

5) Oakland (Carr has resurrected his career this year)

Worst pass blocking OLs:

32) Tenn (Mariota got benched, but Tannehill has been pretty good)

31) Washington (Haskins and the other QBs have struggled)

30) Jets

29) Miami (Fitz has been better the past few weeks, but struggled earlier as did Rosen)

28) Carolina (Kyle Allen has come back to earth and the coach just got fired

BTW, who are the only teams in the bottom 5 in both run blocking and pass blocking? The Jets and Dolphins. 

I repeat, nothing is more important than fixing the OL this off season. 2 premium free agent signings and 2 OL picked in the teams first 4 picks. I'm fairly optimistic that Joe Douglas understands this and will get it done. 

 

 

Taking this a step further, whenever the jets OL has played decent the jets have won.  When Jax got 8 sacks, yeah, they lose.  When cincy gets 4 sacks and the OL keeps getting penalties, they lose.  

I actually didn’t mind that they threw the ball a lot vs cincy, b/c it reminded everyone that the OL still sucks despite the recent wins.  I was reading nice articles about beachum, Harrison and the OL crew in the week leading up to the cincy game.  The reality is that of the 5 starters, maybe beachum starts for another team, and only on a team with a bad OL like the giants.  

I really don’t know what the anti darnold folks here think he should be doing that much better.  He’s cut down on the turnovers and the head scratching throws that are essentially 50/50 balls that could be picked (as opposed to, say, Daniel jones who throws a lot of them).  When he’s not getting nailed in the pocket his throws are accurate and he’s been a decent chain mover despite not having a reliable running game.  His skill positions are still below average, with bell slower than an average rb (how would dobbins look in green!) and guys like Anderson often disappearing.  

The cincy game was the harsh reminder that 1) the jets overall talent level, especially the guys not injured and playing week to week, is bottom 7-8, 2) they need to draft at least 2 starters on the OL this draft, including a LT in the first round, and 3) darnold needs more weapons, beginning at rb, not wr.  The RB position needs youth and speed, they should trade bell and get more speed on the field.

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1 hour ago, Irish Jet said:

Anderson absolutely has to make that catch. He's coming back for it so it's not like it's going away from - There's no excuse, the ball hit both of his hands. 

Conversely, Darnold needs to throw a materially better pass when his burner WR has a step and half on his coverage.  Darnold throws that pass better, it's an easy catch and TD.  Darnold's pass was horribly, unintentionally, underthrown and awkward to catch.

Yes, it hit Anderson's hands.  Yes, he should catch it.  But the responsability for that drop is mostly on Darnold's poor pass.

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11 hours ago, Untouchable said:

Why not judge with your eyes?

This is why I hate this analytics crap.

Boiling down athletics to a bunch of percentages and equations.

If you’re expecting Darnold to consistently look like Montana with this dogsh*t roster then I don’t know what to tell you.

He’s a 22 year old kid who exhibits elite traits throwing the football on one of the least talented teams in the league.

Build up the OL and give him another legit receiver besides Crowder and then you can more properly judge him.

So true.

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1 hour ago, Irish Jet said:

Anderson absolutely has to make that catch. He's coming back for it so it's not like it's going away from - There's no excuse, the ball hit both of his hands. 

People need to watch more NFL - WR's who aren't wide open don't often get hit in stride on 40+ yard throws. Most of the time the WR has to go and get the f*cking thing.

Agree one million percent.   I made a similar point in another thread about the need to draft WRs and revamp this receiver group.  Good receivers make adjustments and make plays on the ball.  This receiver group needs perfectly placed balls right in their hands.   There is no go to guy that will fight for the ball.  Robby can run, but he’s so weak when the ball is in the air, zero fight.   There are no red zone targets in this group.  It’s just a flawed group.  

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"Anderson is be a legit #1 WR!"  - JN Posters

-----Anderson drops another badly thrown deeper Darnold pass-----

"THESE WR'S SUCK, DARNOLD NEEDS LEGIT WR'S!!!" - Literally the same JN Posters

 

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5 minutes ago, sec101row23 said:

Agree one million percent.   I made a similar point in another thread about the need to draft WRs and revamp this receiver group.  Good receivers make adjustments and make plays on the ball.  This receiver group needs perfectly placed balls right in their hands.   There is no go to guy that will fight for the ball.  Robby can run, but he’s so weak when the ball is in the air, zero fight.   There are no red zone targets in this group.  It’s just a flawed group.  

Anderson is not a great wr for darnold, and i think both Robbie and bell will be gone this offseason.  I just posted here that the jets need to rethink the rb position, beginning with trading bell, and drafting either dobbins or the LSU rb.  They need more speed and quickness, since the OL will not be completely fixed in one offseason and the running game would benefit more from pure speed and youth at this point.  But for wrs, darnold needs guys who run crisp routes and are savvier, not guys like Anderson who show up every 4th game.

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12 hours ago, RonaldJet said:

PFF is just another arbitrary metric (they have Dwayne Haskins graded average whereas ESPNs QBR has him rated as the worst passer in NFL history).

Despite grading out well over the past four weeks they still have Sam rated as one of the worst QBs in the NFL this season. Pretty much tells the story of his career so far. He has stretches where he plays terrific (and you think things have finally clicked), but the overall body of work sucks. 

The Darnold believers will tell you his coaching staff and supporting cast are holding him back. The Darnold skeptics like myself will cite serious flaws in his game which many NFL defenses can exploit. 

My prediction is after next year we will be looking for a new QB as the Sam Darnold experience will be defined:

2-Awesome Games

4-Quality Games 

4-Average Games 

4-Bad Games

2-Hideous Games

 

 

 

It is almost like he is a young player with sketchy skill positional players around him.

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20 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Conversely, Darnold needs to throw a materially better pass when his burner WR has a step and half on his coverage.  Darnold throws that pass better, it's an easy catch and TD.  Darnold's pass was horribly, unintentionally, underthrown and awkward to catch.

Yes, it hit Anderson's hands.  Yes, he should catch it.  But the responsability for that drop is mostly on Darnold's poor pass.

I think you’re being unfair here...

this wasn’t a simple straight go, it was a deep crossing route where Darnold is throwing to a spot on the right while Robby is streaking from the left. It’s a higher degree of difficulty throw.

It was an 8/10 throw, it wasn’t under thrown as much as it was a fraction late, it hit the receiver in both hands on the end zone, before the defender got there. It’s a routine catch for any self respecting NFL receiver, there is no excuse to not make that catch. 
 

look at the deep TD Hodges three against Cleveland, now THAT was a terrible throw into triple coverage no less... but the result was great so he’s a hero. 

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1 hour ago, CTM said:

The problem with eye tests is they are highly susceptible to bias, it's why just about every NFL teams fans think the refs cheat thier team disproportionally.

In this instance, if your eye test doesnt turn up troubling aspects of Sam's play you are biased, plan and simple. Its ok, you are a fan, you are desperate for Sam to be good  because all kinds of good things for this team are attached to that so it makes sense.

Analytics / stats are less susceptible to bias and normally a better judge of what's actually happening than what a fan thinks they see (or hopes in this case) 

All analytics do not take situational circumstance into account. 

Analytics should be used as a guide with an objective eye test attached. 

There are no perfect numbers.

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45 minutes ago, section314 said:

This is a public service announcement brought your way by the people who are going to pay Zack Wheeler $100mm .

Spin rate, MFers.

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5 minutes ago, Warfish said:

"Anderson is be a legit #1 WR!"  - JN Posters

-----Anderson drops another badly thrown deeper Darnold pass-----

"THESE WR'S SUCK, DARNOLD NEEDS LEGIT WR'S!!!" - Literally the same JN Posters

 

Mike Evans drops a ton of passes. All of these guys do besides Michael Thomas. One drop cant be used as an excuse to why Danrold couldnt muster some points against a bad defense.

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2 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

Anderson is not a great wr for darnold, and i think both Robbie and bell will be gone this offseason.  I just posted here that the jets need to rethink the rb position, beginning with trading bell, and drafting either dobbins or the LSU rb.  They need more speed and quickness, since the OL will not be completely fixed in one offseason and the running game would benefit more from pure speed and youth at this point.  But for wrs, darnold needs guys who run crisp routes and are savvier, not guys like Anderson who show up every 4th game.

Robby is who he is, he’s a role player that could be a nice compliment in a complete receiver group.  He’s not a main cog in that group.  This team has been void of legit receivers for so long that people forget what they look like.  They talk themselves into thinking a group of Robby, Crowder and Thomas is somehow good enough to compete week in and week out in this league.  It simply isn’t.  

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11 hours ago, HawkeyeJet said:

I likely will take some grief for this post, but that's ok.  I want to have a legitimate discussion and hopefully some folks will expand on their views so I can maybe get a better idea of why they think that.

My question is, if you are someone who believes yesterday was a really bad game for Sam, why do you think that?

I have watched the offensive possessions twice now, and what I see is very mediocre game from Sam.  He was not good, but he wasn't bad either, in my opinion.  He missed a throw or two, had a drop or two, and threw a few from weird positions that looked bad.  All in all though, what was it yesterday that would make someone say it was a "bad" game from him?  Inaccuracy?  Decision making?  Too conservative?

Except a big part of a QBs game, especially a QBs game, is to get into a rhythm

Also important to any offense is to keep the offense from facing third and longs

All those drops, all those penalties, all those missed opportunities kept them from getting into any kind of thythm and forced them into third and longs far too ofter.

 

 

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1 minute ago, sec101row23 said:

Robby is who he is, he’s a role player that could be a nice compliment in a complete receiver group.  He’s not a main cog in that group.  This team has been void of legit receivers for so long that people forget what they look like.  They talk themselves into thinking a group of Robby, Crowder and Thomas is somehow good enough to compete week in and week out in this league.  It simply isn’t.  

Robby does not deserve WR1 status. Someone here posted that he probably is a prime "Transitional Tag" designee, and I would take that comp and run if someone would sign him from that.

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3 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

Mike Evans drops a ton of passes. All of these guys do besides Michael Thomas. One drop cant be used as an excuse to why Danrold couldnt muster some points against a bad defense.

Except it wasn't just one

And a dropped two yard pass isn't the same as a dropped TD or a long gainer. 

Or believing after watching the game that not being able to muster some points was on the QB

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9 minutes ago, Warfish said:

"Anderson is be a legit #1 WR!"  - JN Posters

-----Anderson drops another badly thrown deeper Darnold pass-----

"THESE WR'S SUCK, DARNOLD NEEDS LEGIT WR'S!!!" - Literally the same JN Posters

 

Please... are you referring to the week 1 pass that also literally hit him in the hands in the end zone?

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Just now, Jet Nut said:

Except it wasn't just one

ANd a dropped two yard pass isn't the same as a dropped TD or a long gainer. 

The Jets have only 10 (charted) dropped passes on the year. 27th overall. Teams have drops, teams commit penalties. The game is still geared for the offense to move the ball. 6 points and no RZ trips against the Bengals- there's just no excuse.

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3 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

Mike Evans drops a ton of passes. All of these guys do besides Michael Thomas. One drop cant be used as an excuse to why Danrold couldnt muster some points against a bad defense.

It’s the Sanchez defense all over again.  Someone did something not great (even though it was a bad pass) and now the whole game is a wash, and no need to make any other plays.

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Darnold has not thrown a pretty deep ball for the majority of his career with the Jets. Maybe that will develop, maybe it won't.

And that is ok. The Jets would just need to realize it and get a big bodied WR that can high point a ball and use that player to compliment the skills we have seen fro Darnold-The ability to fit a ball very well on intermediate routes.

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Just now, Matt39 said:

The Jets have only 10 (charted) dropped passes on the year. 27th overall. Teams have drops, teams commit penalties. The game is still geared for the offense to move the ball. 6 points and no RZ trips against the Bengals- there's just no excuse.

Again, it wasn't just the dropped passes, it was the penalties, the constant third and longs.

Thirty yard gains wiped out by mindless penalties clog an offense.

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1 minute ago, Jet Nut said:

Again, it wasn't just the dropped passes, it was the penalties, the constant third and longs.

Thirty yard gains wiped out by mindless penalties clog an offense.

The offense consistently puts darnold in difficult situations because they can’t run the ball at all. 2nd and long, 3rd and long, and that’s before the penalties and porous OL play.  For a few games, when they jumped out to a lead, it changed everything b/c at least teams knew they weren’t desperate to throw.  When you’re losing and your OL sucks, that’s when things get ugly.

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7 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

Robby does not deserve WR1 status. Someone here posted that he probably is a prime "Transitional Tag" designee, and I would take that comp and run if someone would sign him from that.

I don’t think you get compensation if a transition tagged player signs with another team.  

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9 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

Except a big part of a QBs game, especially a QBs game, is to get into a rhythm

Also important to any offense is to keep the offense from facing third and longs

All those drops, all those penalties, all those missed opportunities kept them from getting into any kind of thythm and forced them into third and longs far too ofter.

 

 

This and no running game.  They need more speed at RB as well as better linemen.

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11 minutes ago, sec101row23 said:

Robby is who he is, he’s a role player that could be a nice compliment in a complete receiver group.  He’s not a main cog in that group.  This team has been void of legit receivers for so long that people forget what they look like.  They talk themselves into thinking a group of Robby, Crowder and Thomas is somehow good enough to compete week in and week out in this league.  It simply isn’t.  

No, not week in, week out.  But the offense functioned best this year when he was throwing to crowder, Thomas and griffin, and not handing it to bell, and not forcing it to Anderson.  

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Sam isnt blowing the advanced metrics world out of the water?   I'm shocked, honestly.  This shock and awe has given me this feeling that I need to make a determination, right this second, on the career of a 22  year old kid who has started 22 games for one of the worst franchises in all of sports, on his 2nd HC, 2nd GM and playing for a miserable coach on the the least talented roster in the league that is completely injury plagued and playing behind the worst OL in the NFL.

 

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12 hours ago, HawkeyeJet said:

I likely will take some grief for this post, but that's ok.  I want to have a legitimate discussion and hopefully some folks will expand on their views so I can maybe get a better idea of why they think that.

My question is, if you are someone who believes yesterday was a really bad game for Sam, why do you think that?

I have watched the offensive possessions twice now, and what I see is very mediocre game from Sam.  He was not good, but he wasn't bad either, in my opinion.  He missed a throw or two, had a drop or two, and threw a few from weird positions that looked bad.  All in all though, what was it yesterday that would make someone say it was a "bad" game from him?  Inaccuracy?  Decision making?  Too conservative?

I think that, in general, it’s not being called a horrible game.  But, even with all that was working against him, at this point in his career, he needs to be better against a league worst pass defense.

I also think that Darnold is so massively overrated by Jets fans, (looks elite at times!... no, he hasn’t) that objectivity is treated as heresy.

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1 minute ago, Augustiniak said:

This and no running game.  They need more speed at RB as well as better linemen.

Thanks, I meant to mention the lack of a running game.

Its so much easier to rip the QB, then to understand what goes into making a QB or offense's life easier and helping them be successful.  Its just too easy to claim he sucked and its the QBs fault.  

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